tcci barometer march 2014. “establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial, business...
TRANSCRIPT
TCCI BarometerMarch 2014
“Establishing a reliable tool for monitoring the financial, business and social activity in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki”
• Conduct every six months (March 2nd fortnight)
• Monitoring five (5) populations of interest:
- Residents – Consumers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Consumer Survey)
- Retail Trade companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Retail Trade Survey)
- Industries – Manufacturers in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Industry Survey)
- Services companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Services Survey)
- Construction companies in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki (Construction Survey)
• Conduct via telephone interviews (CATI system)
• Total sample of 1.500 respondents (700 consumers & 800 companies)
• Questionnaires along the lines of instructions for investigating
economic climate (DG – ECFIN)
Consumer Survey
Industry Survey
Services Survey
Retail Trade Survey4
3
2
1
Construction Survey5
Consumer Survey1
Consumer Confidence Indicator
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -38
Greece : -60
European Union : -7
Consumer Survey1
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Consumer Confidence Indicator (September 2013)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -50
Greece : -72
European Union : -12
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -51GR: -79EU: -17
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -44GR: -67EU: -14
September 2013
0% 3%
22%
43%
32%
How has the financial situation of your household changed
over the last 12 months? It has...
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
0% 5%
26%
46%
23%
How has the financial situation of your household changed
over the last 12 months? It has...
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive– Negative)THE: -31GR: -64EU: -5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -20GR: -49EU: -2
September 2013
0%
12%
29%
30%
22%
7%
How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It
will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
1%
14%
36%33%
11%5%
How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months? It
will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -55GR: -85EU: -33
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -42GR: -72EU: -22
September 2013
1% 4%
18%
36%
40%
2%
How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12
months? It has…
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
don't know
0%
8%
22%
43%
25%
2%
How do you think the general economic situation in the country has changed over the past 12
months? It has…
got a lot better
got a little better
stayed the same
got a little worse
got a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -38GR: -69EU: -10
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -24GR: -52EU: -2
September 2013
1%
13%
21%
27%
32%
6%
How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12
months? It will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
1%
17%
28%
31%
17%
5%
How do you expect the general economic situa-tion in this country to develop over the next 12
months? It will…
get a lot better
get a little better
stay the same
get a little worse
get a lot worse
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -4
GR: +13EU: +30
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -3
GR: +23EU: +19
September 2013
10%
36%
16%
20%
14%
3%
How do you think that consumer prices have developed over the last 12 months? They
have…
fallen
stayed about the same
risen slightly
risen moderately
risen a lot
don't know
9%
30%
26%
22%
10%
3%
How do you think that consumer prices have de-veloped over the last 12 months? They have…
fallen
stayed about the same
risen slightly
risen moderately
risen a lot
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9 GR: -4 EU: +17
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -6
GR: +10EU: +13
September 2013
10%
37%
12%
22%
9%
10%
By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the
next 12 months? They will...
fall
stay about the same
increase at a slower rate
increase at the same rate
increase more rapidly
don't know
8%
35%
16%
25%
7%9%
By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in
the next 12 months? They will...
fall
stay about the same
increase at a slower rate
increase at the same rate
increase more rapidly
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +57GR: +75EU: +24
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +44GR: +62EU: +18
September 2013
1%
9%
13%
28%
48%
2%
How do you expect the number of people unem-ployed in this country to change over the next 12
months? The number will…
fall sharply
fall slightly
remain the same
increase shlightly
increase sharply
don't know
1%
11%
17%
35%
33%
4%
How do you expect the number of people unem-ployed in this country to change over the next 12
months? The number will…
fall sharply
fall slightly
remain the same
increase shlightly
increase sharply
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -61GR: -55EU: -17
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -65GR: -56EU: -11
September 2013
2%
11%
15%
72%
In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, elec-
trical/electronic devices, etc.?
don’t know
yes,it is the right moment now
it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment
no, it is not the right moment now
1%
10%
14%
75%
In the view of the general economic situation, do you think that now it is the right moment for people to make major purchases such as furniture, elec-
trical/electronic devices, etc.?
don’t know
yes,it is the right moment now
it is neither the right moment nor the wrong moment
no, it is not the right moment now
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -68GR: -78EU: -23
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -63GR: -65EU: -22
September 2013
2%
4%
12%
20%
62%
1%
Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases
(furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over the next 12 months? I will spend…
much more
a little more
about the same
a little less
much less
don't know
1%
6%
16%
18%58%
1%
Compared to the past 12 months, do you expect to spend more or less money on major purchases (furniture, electrical/electronic devices, etc.) over
the next 12 months? I will spend…
much more
a little more
about the same
a little less
much less
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -54GR: -47EU: -
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -62GR: -70EU: -
September 2013
9%
12%
16%
60%
3%
In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?
a very good moment to save
a fairly good moment to save
not a good moment to save
a very bad moment to save
don't know
4%
13%
19%
63%
2%
In view of the general economic situation, do you think that now is…?
a very good moment to save
a fairly good moment to save
not a good moment to save
a very bad moment to save
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -73GR: -81EU: -7
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -63GR: -76EU: -5
September 2013
2%
10%
15%
73%
1%
Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
don't know
4%
12%
18%
65%
0%
Over the next 12 months, how likely is it that you save any money?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
don't know
Consumer Survey1September 2013
1%
10%
43%19%
26%
1%
Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?
we are saving a lot
we are saving a little
we are just managing to make ends meet on our income
we are having to draw on our savings
we are running into debt
don't know
1%
8%
48%19%
25%
0%
Which of these statements best describes the current financial situation of your household?
we are saving a lot
we are saving a little
we are just managing to make ends meet on our income
we are having to draw on our savings
we are running into debt
don't know
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -93GR*: -91EU*: -74
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -96GR*: -90EU*: -72
*Data of July ‘13
September 2013
*Data of January ‘14
2%1%
4%
94%
How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
1%1%2%
96%
How likely are you to buy a car over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
Consumer Survey1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -96GR*: -95EU*: -88
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -100GR*: -95EU*: -88
*Data of July ‘13
September 2013
*Data of January ‘14
0%1%2%
96%
Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of
your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?
yes, definitely
possibly
probably not
no
0% 1%
99%
Are you planning to buy or build a home over the next 12 months (to live in yourself, for a member of
your family, as a holiday home, to let etc.)?
yes, definitely
possibly
probably not
no
Consumer Survey1
*Data of July ‘13
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -83GR*: -89EU*: -59
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -84GR*: -85EU*: -55
September 2013
*Data of January ‘14
2%
7%5%
87%
How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations
over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
2%
6%
8%
84%
How likely are you to spend any large sums of money on home improvements or renovations
over the next 12 months?
very likely
fairly likely
not likely
not at all likely
Industry Survey2
Industry Survey2
Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector) – September 2013
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -13
Greece : -5
European Union : -5
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Industrial Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -6
Greece : -4
European Union : -3
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -19GR: -2EU: -2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -25 GR: +7 EU: +7
September 2013
decreased44%
remain un-
changed32%
increased25%
How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:
decreased46%
remain un-
changed33%
increased21%
How has your production developed over the past 6 months? It has:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -49GR: -27EU: -21
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -54GR: -24EU: -15
September 2013
not sufficient56%
sufficient37%
more than sufficient7%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
not sufficient59%
sufficient35%
more than sufficient5%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -37GR: -14EU: -18
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -41GR: -18EU: -15
September 2013
not sufficient34%
don't know 26%
sufficient34%
more than sufficient6%
Do you consider your current export order books to be:
not sufficient42%
don't know 18%
sufficient33%
more than sufficient8%
Do you consider your current export order books to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -8GR: +1EU: +4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15 GR: +4EU: +5
September 2013
adequate63%
too small21%
too large14%
don't know2%
Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:
adequate57%
too small27%
too large13%
don't know3%
Do you consider your current stock of finished products to be:
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +2
GR: +12EU: +10
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +22 GR: +17 EU: +11
September 2013
decrease26%
remain unchanged43%
increase28%
don't know4%
How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…
decrease19%
remain un-
changed34%
increase39%
don't know8%
How do you expect your production to develop over the next 6 months? It will…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -14GR: -14EU: +0,1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -13 GR: -6
EU: +0,3
September 2013
remain unchanged
71%
decrease20%
increase6%
don’t know2%
How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed70%
decrease18%
increase6%
don’t know6%
How do you expect your selling prices to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -8 GR: -2 EU: -6
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +2GR: -8EU: -3
September 2013
remain un-
changed72%
decrease17%
don’t know 2%
increase9%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed71%
decrease12%
don’t know 3%
increase14%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Industry Survey2September 2013
don't know
other factors
shortage of material and/or equipment
shortage of labour force
none
financial constraints
insufficient demand
0%
7%
9%
3%
8%
45%
54%
What main factors are currently limiting your production?
don't know
other factors
shortage of material and/or equipment
shortage of labour force
none
financial constraints
insufficient demand
1%
5%
8%
3%
8%
41%
65%
What main factors are currently limiting your production?
Industry Survey2September 2013
decreased35%
remain unchanged
35%
increased29%
don't know1%
How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…
decreased43%
remain un-
changed35%
increased21%
don't know1%
How have your orders developed over the past 6 months? They have…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -2 GR:* +27 EU:* +23
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -5
GR:* +25 EU:* +17
*Data of July ‘13
September 2013
*Data of January ‘14
sufficient76%
not sufficient13%
more than sufficient11%
Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-
ity? The current production capacity is…
sufficient59%
not sufficient22%
more than suf-ficient17%
don't know2%
Considering your current order books and the ex-pected change in demand over the coming months, how do you assess your current production capac-
ity? The current production capacity is…
Industry Survey2
Balances (Positive – Negative) THE: +9 GR: +7 EU: +8
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +26 GR: +9
EU: +13
*Data of July ‘13
September 2013
*Data of January ‘14
don't know29%
remain unchanged38%
decrease13%
increase20%
How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…
don't know27%
remain un-
changed29%
decrease13%
increase32%
How do you expect your export orders to develop over the next 6 months? They will…
Industry Survey2
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. *Greece : FEIR3. *European Union : DG ECFIN
Thessaloniki Greece* European Union*
**How many months of production are assured by your current overall order books? 3,3 4,6 4,2
***At what capacity is your company currently operating (as a percentage of full capacity)? 57,3% 65,9% 80,1%
** Percentage of those who answered: 90%*** Percentage of those who answered: 94%
Services Survey3
Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector) – September 2013
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -27
Greece : -10
European Union : +1
Services Survey3
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Services Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -20
Greece : +5
European Union : +8
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -46GR: -13EU: -4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -44GR: -1EU: +4
September 2013
deteriorated58%
remained unchanged
31%
improved12%
How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…
deteriorated55%
remained unchanged
34%
improved11%
How has your business situation developed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -13GR: -11EU: -1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -21GR: -1EU: +9
September 2013
decreased41%
remained unchanged
31%
increased28%
How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…
decreased45%
remained unchanged
30%
increased24%
don't know1%
How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: +6
GR: +17EU: +12
September 2013
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -21 GR: -5 EU: +9
decrease40%
remain un-
changed30%
increase21%
don't know9%
How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the
next 6 months? It will…
decrease32%
remain un-
changed22%
increase38%
don't know8%
How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the
next 6 months? It will…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -14 GR: -20 EU: -2
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -10 GR: -13 EU: +5
September 2013
remained unchanged
69%
decreased16%
increased4%
don't know10%
How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…
remained unchanged
78%
decreased13%
increased4%
don't know5%
How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 6 months? It has…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -8
GR: -23 EU: -1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -3GR: +3EU: +5
September 2013
remain un-
changed64%
decrease13%
increase7%
don't know16%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed73%
decrease11%
increase8%
don't know8%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Services Survey3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -38GR: -22EU: -1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -30 GR: -12 EU: +2
September 2013
remain un-
changed53%decrease
40%
increase3%
don't know3%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed60%
decrease34%
increase4%
don't know2%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Services Survey3September 2013
insufficient demant
financial constraints
other factors
none
shortage of labour force
shortage of space and/or equipment
don't know
42%
56%
8%
2%
4%
3%
1%
What main factors are currently limiting your business?
insufficient demant
financial constraints
other factors
none
shortage of labour force
shortage of space and/or equipment
don't know
38%
56%
8%
8%
3%
2%
0%
What main factors are currently limiting your business?
Retail Trade Survey4
Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector) – September 2013
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -17
Greece : -23
European Union : -0,4
Retail Trade Survey4
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Retail Trade Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -17
Greece : -10
European Union : +0,5
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -45GR: -37EU: +1
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -50GR: -18EU: +1
September 2013
deteriorated58%
remained unchanged
29%
improved13%
How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…(They
have…)
deteriorated63%
remained unchanged
23%
improved14%
How has (have) your business activity (sales) developed over the past 6 months? It has…
(They have…)
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -16 GR: -8 EU: +8
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -9 GR: -4 EU: +7
September 2013
adequate (normal for the season)
47%
too large (above normal)
17%
too small (be-low normal)
32%
don't know5%
Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:
adequate (normal for the season)
52%
too large (above normal)
17%
too small (be-low normal)
26%
don't know4%
Do you consider the volume of stock you currently hold to be:
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -39 GR: -30 EU: -3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -20 GR: -6 EU: -1
September 2013
decrease48%
remain un-
changed34%
increase9%
don't know11%
How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?
They will…
decrease42%
remain un-
changed29%
increase22%
don't know7%
How do you expect your orders placed with suppliers to change over the next 6 months?
They will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -22GR: -39EU: +6
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -11GR: +26EU: +7
September 2013
deteriorate (decrease)
39%
remain unchanged28%
improve (increase)
17%
don't know16%
How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It (They)
will…
deteriorate (decrease)
34%
remain unchanged32%
improve (increase)
23%
don't know10%
How do you expect your business activity (sales) to change over the next 6 months? It
(They) will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15 GR: +7 EU: -3
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -15GR: +18EU: +2
September 2013
remain un-
changed73%
decrease19%
don't know5%
increase4%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed69%
decrease18%
don't know8%
increase5%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Retail Trade Survey4
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -22 GR: -22 EU: +6
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -26GR: -20EU: +5
September 2013
remain un-
changed56%
decrease29%
increase8%
don't know7%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed60%
decrease30%
increase5%
don't know5%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
Construction Survey5
Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector) – September 2013
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -54
Greece : -18
European Union : -27
Construction Survey5
Source: 1. Prefecture of Thessaloniki: TCCI Barometer2. Greece : FEIR 3. European Union : DG ECFIN
Business Expectations Indicator (Constructions Sector)
Prefecture of Thessaloniki : -43
Greece : -14
European Union : -25
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -42 GR: +12 EU: -12
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -39GR: -10EU: -3
September 2013
decreased57%
remained unchanged
27%
increased15%
don't know1%
How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…
decreased51%
remained unchanged
36%
increased13%
How has your building activity developed over the past 6 months? It has…
Construction Survey5September 2013
don't know
shortage of labour force
shortage of equipment
weather conditions
none
other factors
financial constraints
insufficient demand
1%
1%
2%
4%
4%
7%
46%
70%
What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?
don't know
shortage of labour force
shortage of equipment
weather conditions
none
other factors
financial constraints
insufficient demand
0%
2%
4%
6%
2%
7%
48%
66%
What main factors are currently limiting your building activity?
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -81 GR: -31 EU: -38
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -80 GR: -48 EU: -38
September 2013
sufficient18%
not sufficient82%
more than sufficient1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
sufficient18%
not sufficient81%
more than sufficient1%
Do you consider your current overall order books to be:
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -26GR: -5
EU: -17
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -6
GR: +21EU: -11
September 2013
remain un-
changed59%
decrease30%
increase5%
don't know6%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
remain un-
changed64%
decrease20%
increase15%
don't know1%
How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 6 months? It will…
Construction Survey5
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -30 GR: -35 EU: -9
Balances (Positive – Negative)THE: -25GR: -34EU: -6
September 2013
remain un-
changed59%
decrease31%
increase3%
don't know7%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
remain un-
changed63%
decrease27%
increase4%
don't know6%
How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 6 months? They will…
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