tdri qr september 2014
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
1/26
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
2/26
!"#$%&'(# !*'&+,!"#$%' )"'*+$",&&'-&'*
!*'&+,'-. /&-00
.$//$'$ 0$'12$'$'"/
1,& 2',#$&+,
-#&'*345"*'
!*'&+,
!&2' 6&7/85
924 92$" :$'3 ;4
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
3/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW4
GAS PRICE REFORM:ARE WE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK?
Deunden Nikomborirak*
R ;#F ;48'34' K"%&=,"#$% "5 >454$#12 ;"#41/G S1&'&="1
J&?F!L4'/#$: ?'/4::"*4'14 M*4'1E TUVADWG X.:3 @$1/ Y&&%GZ
3&-':&$3$,:4 7#&= 2//+5[\\---F1"$F*&
2#6< /0' =>?5@A B"&(" &' 6'#% 0' 0 C-##%'4)(DE -)+
9#:&%>2#()>34 9435:/0 35* 3/ $;#4 $%& )5*;/:&)#/ 35*
$%& G#2)>4#/ B(3)548 :3J)/ 35* D;/#/E 3/ 6#44 3/ $%&
2%;/#2%4* >%%=)57< K /(344 9%&:)%5 %$ :2# 53:;&34
73/ )/ >%(9//#* :% D# ;/#* 3/ 3 $;#4 $%& G#2)>4#/
=F5G@A
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
4/26
5vol.29 no.3 september 2014
L#/9):# :2# >%5:)5;34 )5>/# )5 :2# 9&%*;>+
4&)3 )- 3046+02 /0' &3 4"# 562- )- !"0&203% 03% 4"#
K5*3(35 M#30 *%(#/:)> /;9948 63/ 5%: 3D4# :% =##9;9 6):2 :2# /;&7# )5 *#(35* 9&%(9:#* D8 #/>343:)57
74%D34 9#:&%4#;( 9&)>#/ 35* /:3:# /;D/)*)#/ $%& :2#
6'# )- >?5 0' *#"&(2# -6#2 03% 0' 0 ())D&3/ /0' &3
2%;/#2%4*/< 123)435*?/ 9%4)>8 :% 9&%(%:# :2# ;/# %$
53:;&34 73/ 3/ 3 G#2)>4# $;#4 35* 3/ >%%=)57 73/ $%&
2%;/#2%4*/ :2&%;72 3 9&)># /;D/)*8 D#735 )5 @..F
3/ 3 /;4: %$ :2# 3D;5*35># %$ *%(#/:)> 73/ /;994)#/
3: :2# :)(#< N%6#G#&0 3/ /;9948 #G#5:;3448 63/ 5%:
3D4# :% =##9 ;9 6):2 *#(35*0 123)435* D#>3(# 35
)(9%&:#& %$ 53:;&34 73/ /:3&:)57 )5 !,,H0 3/ >35 D#/##5 )5 O)7; !%;5:&8?/ *#9#5*#5># %5 )(9%&:#* 73/
&' 2&D#2, 4) &3(+#0'# 0' (6++#34 /0' 1#2%' &3 4"# 562-
%$ 123)435* 3 7&3*;3448 *#94#:#*< K>>%&*)57 :%
:2# P)5)/:&8 %$ Q5#&780 123)435*?/ 9&%*;>:)%5 )/
#J9#>:#* :% 9#3= )5 @.!- 35* >#3/# )5 @.C. )5 :2#
3D/#5># %$ 5#6 9&%G#5 /#&G#/< R):2 :2# >;&:
43:#* :3)4 9&)># D#)57 D#4%6 >%/: 2%6#G#&0
:2# )/ 4)::4# )5>#5:)G# $%& 5#6 #J94%&3:)%5 35*
9&%*;>:)%5 35* 4)::4# )5>#5:)G# :% >;&D *#(35*#/
:% (##: ):/ )5/3:)3D4# *%(#/:)> 399#:):#< 12)/ )5+
>4;*#/ :2# )(9%&: %$ 53:;&34 73/ :&35/()::#* :2&%;72
9&9#2&3#' -+)< )--'")+# 1#2%' &3 J,03
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
5/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW6
M%;&>)57 73/ $&%( %G#&/#3/ 23/ 9&%G#5 :%
D# #J9#5/)G#< 12# >%/: %$ 73/ $&%( P835(3& )/
&%;7248 TMU !!+!@ 9#& ((D:;C0 399&%J)(3:#48 F.
9#&>#5: 2)72#& :235 :23: %$ *%(#/:)> 73/ $&%( :2#
562- )- !"0&203%A B"&(" &' OPQ L.R 9#+ 4#/E )5 %&*#& :% >4%/# :2# 9&)>#+>%/: 739< 12#
(%G# * 2#3G8 >&):)>)/( $&%( 5%5+7%G#&5(#5:34
)+/03&T04&)3' =F5U'@ 03% ()3'6?5 4"04 &' 0%*)(04#% I, 4"#
P)5)/:&8 %$ Q5#&78< 12# (3)5 3&7;(#5: )/ :23: ):
)/ :2# 9#:&%>2#()>34 )5*;/:&80 5%: 2%;/#2%4*/0 :23:
/2%;4* /2%;4*#& :2# D;&*#5 %$ 2)72#& >%/:/ $%& )(+
9%&:#* 53:;&34 73/0 3/ :2# )5*;/:&8 3>>%;5:/ $%& (%
4"03 0 4"&+% )- 4"# >?5 ()3'6
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
6/26
7vol.29 no.3 september 2014
12)/ 939#& >%5:3)5/ 35 #J3()53:)%5 %$ :2#
%5+7%)57 *#D3:# 3D%;: 73/ 9&)># $%&( )5 %&*#& :%
*#4)5#3:# :2# *)$$#: G)#69%)5:/ 35* )(9&%G# ;5+
*#&/:35*)57 %$ :2#(0 35* :% 9&%9%/# 9%//)D4# 9%4)>8
*)>:)%5/ )5 %&*#& :% (%G# $%&63&* :2# >%;5:&8?/53:;&34 73/ $%&( 37#5*3< M#>:)%5/ @ 35* C 3
*#G%:#* :% #J943)5)57 :2# (3&=#: /:&;>:; 35* :2#
>;&: 9&)>)57 )(# %$ :2# 73/ )5*;/:&835 D# *#/>&)D#* (3)548 3/ 3 G#&:)>3448 )5:#7&3:#*
(%5%9%4)/:)> (3&=#: *%()53:#* D8 3 /)574# >%5+74%(#&3:# 2#3*#* D8 :2# W11 W;D4)> S%(9358
\)():#*0 :2# 93&:)3448 9&)G3:)V#* /:3:#+%65#* #5#&78
7)35:< I5 :2# ;9/:( #J94%&3:)%5 35* 9&%*;>:)%5
(3&=#:0 ):/ /;D/)*)3&80 W11 QJ94%&3:)%5 35* W&%+
*;>:)%5 BW11QWE0 (3)5:3)5/ &%;7248 3 @] 9#&>#5:
F5.+#(#&*&3/ 4#+;&+
:48 /::>2#/ C0!.. =(0 4)5=)57 344 >%((#&>)34
)--'")+# /0' 1#2%' 4) 2 3 9#:&%>2#()>34
>%(935)#/ 35* 73/ *)/:&)D;:)%5 >%(935)#/ )5 62)>2
W11 %65/ 3 >%5:&%44)57 /23>#// :% D%:2 W11?/ 73/ :&35/()//)%5 9)9#4)5#
3#4B)+D 03% >F5.+#(#&*&3/ 4#+) 45* A0%%*+/ 2/%0A/0%* .- /5* 45#" +#/0%#1 $#2 "+,02/%8
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
7/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW8
:&)D;:)%5 (3&=#:/< S#&:3)5 9%6#& 9435:/ %& )5*;/:&)34
;/#&/ >%5/:&;>: :2#)& %65 *)/:&)D;:)%5 9)9#4)5#/ :%
>%55#>: :% W11?/ (3)5 :&35/()//)%5 9)9#4)5# 35*
:&35/$#& :2# %65#&/2)9 :% W11 $%& (3)5:#535>#)93:)%5 )5 9)9#4)5# >%5+
/:&;>:)%5 35* %9#&3:)%5 3: :2# *)/:&)D;:)%5 4#G#4 23/
D##5 )5:&%*;>#*< 12# 3 >;&:48 :2# *)/:&)D;+4&)3 ()?5 -)+ &4' -##%'4)(D '69+
94)#* D8 W11?/ 73/ /#93&3:)%5 9435:/< W11 34/% 2%4*//23/ )5 /#G#&34 9%6#& 7#5#&3:)%5 >%(935)#/ :23:
0 %5 53:;&34 73/ 3/ 3 $;#4%5>4;*#0 :2# )/ 4)::4# (3&=#: >%(9#+
:):)%5 )5 :2# G#&:)>34 /:&;>:; %$ :2# 53:;&34 73/
)5*;/:&8 )5 123)435*< W11 *%()53:#/ (;>2 %$ :2#
(3&=#: 435*/>39#0 $&%( ;9/:( #J94%&3:)%5 35*
9&%*;>:)%5 :% :2# *%65/:( 9#:&%>2#()>34 )5*;/+
:&8< T5*%;D:#*480 :2# >%(9358 *#&)G#/ ):/ (3&=#:
9%6#& :2&%;72%;: :2# #5:) /;9948 >23)5 $&%( ):/
(%5%9%4)/:)> 2%4* %$ :2# 73/ :&35/()//)%5 $3>)4):8# %$ #$$#>:)G# >%(9#:):)%5 $&%(
;9/:( :% *%65/:( 73/ (3&=#:/0 73/ 9&)>#/ 3:
344 /:37#/ )5 :2# /;9948 >23)5 3 43:#* #):2#&
D8 :2# P)5)/:&8 %$ Q5#&78 %& :2# Q5#&78 _#7;43:%&8
S%(()//)%5 BQ_SE0 3 /#()+3;:%5%(%;/ 43:%&8
D%*8< 12# P)5)/:&8 43:#/ ;9/:( 73/ 9&)>#/`
&N#NA B#22."#0% /0' 9+&(#' 03% #H.-0(4)+, >?5A B"&2#
Q_S 43:#/ ()**4# :% *%65/:( 73/ 9&)>#/`
)):8 9&)>#/:)%5 >%5:3)5/ 3 *)/>;//)%5 %$ 9&)>#43:)%5 )5 *#:3)4%/:+94;/ )(#0 62)>2 344%6/ 9&%*;>+
#&/ :% 93// %5 344 >%/:/ :% >%5/;(#&/< N%6#G#&0 :2#
3 (358 #J#(9:)%5/0 3/ 6)44 D# #43D%&3:#* D#4%6;&: 73/ 9&)>)57 />2#(# )/ +:)G#48
>%(94#J 35* %93Y;# 6):2 (;4:)94# 9&)>#/ *#/)7+
53:#* $%& *)$$#: 7&%;9/ %$ ;/#&/< O)&/: %$ 3440 :2#
/;9948 %$ 53:;&34 73/ )/ *)G)*#* )5:% :6% 9%%4/< 12#
1+'4 9))2A D3)B3 0' C562- /0'E )+ C9))2 7 /0'AE
()3'&'4' #H(26'&*#2, )- 2#/0(, /0' -+)< 4"# 562- )-123)435* 35* :2# P3438/)3+123)435* a%)5: L#G#4%9+
(#5: K 62)>2 )/ +:)G#48 )5#J9#5/)G#< W%%4 !
73/ )/ *#*)>3:#* :% :2# 73/ /#93&3:)%5 9435:/ 62)>2
9+)%6(# 4"# >?5 ()3'6?5 *0++
)#/ 3>&%// *)$$#: ;/#& 7&%;9/< 12)/ )/ 62# :2#
>;&: >%5:&%G#&/8 3D%;: 73/ 9&)># $%&( D#7)5/:%&/ )/
1H#% 04 7_N8M I0"4AF3 9&)># 62)>2 )/ 6#44 D#4%6
3>:;34 >%/:0 62)>2 )/ >43)(#* :% D# @F2 63/ #/:)(3:#* 3: &%;7248MS I&22&)3 I0"4 9#+ 0336< &3 \_7MN U3 4"# )4"#+
"03%A ?!! &' -622, ()?5 4) )4"#+ 6'#+' 03% 4+' 4) ("033#2 0' ?5 ")B#*#+&' '&/3&1(0342, "&/"#+ 4"03 4"# #H.-0(4)+, 9+&(# )-
!.3;/# ): )5>4;*#/ 3 >%5:&)D;+
4&)3 4) 4"# CU&2 ]63%E &3 )+%#+ 4) ()35 D# /##5 $&%( L)37&3( C35 D# /##5 $&%( :2# *)37&3(0 )5*;/:&)34>4)#5:/ BD3& 9#:&%>2#()>34 9&%*;>#&/E 938 :2# 2)72+
#/: 43:#* 9&)># %$ C.2
F924 "*"'$: 4aH7$1/E 6QJ +#"14 "5 ,$543 =$"':E &' /24 1&5/
&7 +#&381/"&' "' *$5 54+$#$/"&' +:$'/5G -24#4$5 "' +#$1/"14G
066%#7/809'., :; 6'%&'*9 #3 $66., '> 3%#8 #/. %'4*'%/'>?
/24 +#&381/"&' 1&5/ &7 -2"12 "5 2"*24#F]@A' 8'*9/#*'1 >9 /> *#9 ,'9 #34&/0.., '*1#%>'1 B, 9A' %'+$.09#%5
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
9/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW10
2%;/#2%4*/ 35* :2# :&35/9%&: /#>:%& >35 9;&>23/#
3: 399&%J)(3:#48 @@ D32: 9#& =7< 12# 9#:&%>2#()+
(02 &3%6'4+,A '9#(&1(022, ?!!5XA 90,' 4"# 2)B#'4
C3#4.I0(D 9+&(#E 04 7R I0"4 9#+ D/ 926' 7 I0"4 0' 0
()34+&I64&)3 4) 4"# U&2 ]63%A B"&(" &3:/ 35* >#&:3)5 3>3*#()>/0 9#&>#)G#/ :2#
(6++#34 '6I'&%, -)+ %'#2A F5G 03% >?5 6'#% I,
2%;/#2%4*/ 35* :2# :&35/9%&: /#>:%& :% D# 2)7248
*)/:%&:)%53&80 4#3*)57 :% #J>#//)G# *%(#/:)> *#(35*
35* 6)*#/9* /(;774)57 %$ :2# >2#39 /;D/)*)V#*
>?5 &34) 3#&/"I)+&3/ ()634+'N !"6'A 4"# #3#+/,
$%&( 37#5*3 %$ :2)/ 7&%;9 )/ $%>;/#* %5 :2# :#&()+
53:)%5 %$ >;&: 73/ 9&)># /;D/)*)#/0 62)>2 )(94)#/
0 '&/3&1(034 K6?5 6'#% -)+ 4+03'9)+4A -+)< \\ I0"4
:% 3D%;: @] D32: 9#& =70 62)>2 )/ >43)(#* :% D# :2#
()'4 9+&(# )- >?5N Y34#+#'4&3/2,A 4"&' /+)69 '##?5 0' 0 -6#2N
U3 4"# )4"#+ "03%A 4"# '#()3% /+)69A ?5 9+&(# &3(+#0'# -)+
2%;/#2%4* ;/# $%& /#G#&34 /%5/3:#/ :23: :2# >%(9358 )/ (3=)57
0 "#024", 9+)14 03% ') '")62% I# 1303(&022, (090I2#
%$ /2%;4*#&)57 :2# 4%// %$ :2# /;D/)*8< K$:#& 3440 :2#
>%(9358 D#4%57/ :% :2# /:3:# 35* /2%;4* D# %D4)7#*
:% 9;&/;# 5%: %548 >%((#&>)34 %DX#>:)G#/ D;: 34/%
/%>)34 %5#/%5*0 53:;&34 73/ /%;&>#/ D#4%57 :% :2#!"0& 9#)92#: 4"6'A 4"# I#3#14' )I40&3#% -+)< 4"#
#J94%):3:)%5 %$ :2%/# /%;&>#/ /2%;4* D# *)/:&)D+
;:#* #Y;3448 :% 344< 12# $3>: :23: :2# 9#:&%>2#()>34
)5*;/:&8 938/ 3 (;>2 4%6#& 9&)># $%& )5*)7#5%;/
73/ 35* :3=#/ 3 :2)&* %$ :2# :%:34 /;9948 (#35/ :23:
&4 &' +#09&3/ I#3#14' %&'9+)9)+4&)304#2,N #3(#A 4"&'
7&%;9 $##4/ :23: 358 )5>/# )5 :2# 9&)># %$ :2# /3(#
9&%*;>: $%& %:2#& ;/#&/ )/ *)/>&)()53:%&8 35* ;5$3)&
*)/:&;/: %$ 9%4)>8 (3=#&/0 3/ /%(# %$ :2#( #5X%8'9#(&02 I#3#14' -+)< ?!!N ])+ #H0
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
10/26
11vol.29 no.3 september 2014
#>%5%()> 9%4)>8 D%*8 %$ :2# 7%G#&5(#5:0 35* #G#5
4"# V44)+3#, 5#3#+02N V99)&3403406 5+)69A 03 #3#+/,()3'624&3/ 1+< I0'#% &3 )3/ c)3/ 4"04 &' -03:#/
(38 3&)/# $&%( :2# $3>: :23: #3>2 7&%;9 7)G#/ *)$+
-#+#34 &=48 &;55)57 %;:0 35* :2# )/ 5%
5#6 #J94%&3:)%5 35* 9&%*;>:)%5 :% ># ):< 12#
Y;#/:)%5 )/Z R28 >35 123)435* 5%: 9&%*;># (%
4%6#&+>%/: *%(#/:)> 73/[K/ (#5:)%5#* 9G)%;/480 :2# >;&: 9&)>#
()34+)2' )3 >?5 03% F5G 9+)*&%# 2&442# &3(#34&*#
4) #H92)+# -)+ 3#B #3#+/, ')6+(#' &3 4"# 562- )-
123)435*< K/ :2# /%4# 9;&>23/#& %$ 73/0 W11 )/ 34/%
4%3:2 :% D;8 *%(#/:)> 73/ )$ ): )/ $%&>#* :% /#44 :2#
9&%*;>: 3: 9&)>#/ 4%6#& :235 >%/:< 12# >%(9358
5% *%;D: 9$#&/ :% /#44 )(9%&:#* 73/0 $%& 62)>2
): )/ $;448 >%(9#5/3:#*0 &3:2#& :235 *%(#/:)>3448
9&%*;>#* 73/;&: 53:;&34 73/ (3&=#: )/ )44;/:&3:#* )5L)37&3( F< K/ 3 /;4: %$ 9&)># >%5:&%40 :2# >;&:
3046+02 /0' '6992, (6+*# &3 !"0&203% &' 0 CD&3D#%E
%5#0 6):2 :2# 9&)># %$ *%(#/:)>3448 9&%*;>#* 73/
=+#b#(4#% &3 4"# '4+0&/"4 2&3# V.X@ I#&3/ +#/6204#%
35* :23: $%& )(9%&:#* 73/ B/2%65 )5 :2# 4)5# $&%(
L :% QE D#)57 (3*# 3G3)43D4# 3: :2# 2)72#& 74%D34
9&)>#< I$ :2# *%(#/:)> 73/ 9&)># 6# :% (%G# :% 93&+
):8 6):2 :2# 74%D34 9&)>#0 :2# /;9948 %$ *%(#/:)> 73/
>%;4* D# D%%/:#*0 /380 $&%( 9%)5: "! :% "@< K4:#&+
!"#$%#& C) 45* A0%%*+/ %H*/ 207718 .- +#/0%#1 $#2 "+ 45#"1#+,
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
11/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW12
53:)G#480 )$ :2# 9&)># 6# :% D# /#: /%(#623: 4%6#&
:235 :2# )(9%&: 9&)>#0 /%(#62# D#:6##5 TMU ,
35* TMU !- 9#& ((D:;0 :2#5 *%(#/:)> /;9948 6%;4*
D# /%(#62# D#:6##5 "! 35* "@< R23:#G#& :2#
>3/# (38 D#0 :2# (%G# 6%;4* D# 3 6)5+6)5 9&%9%/)+
:)%5 $%& 3440 3/ 123)435* 6%;4* D# 3D4# :% *;># :2#
)(9%&:3:)%5 %$ #J9#5/)G# 73/ 35* 3: :2# /3(# :)(#09&%*;># (% *%(#/:)> 73/ 3: 3 4%6#& 9&)># D#>3;/#
%$ :2# /3G)57/ ")V#* %5 :&35/9%&:3:)%5 >%/:/0 3/
6#44 3/ %5 #(94%8(#5:0 :3J#/ 35* &%834:)#/ :% D%%:%5/)*#&
>%5*;>:)57 %9#5 D)**)57 $%& 73/ #J94%&3:)%5 35*
9&%*;>:)%50 6):2 9;D4)>48 3*G#&:)/#* :#&(/ %$ $+
#># )5 4)#; %$ 5#7%:)3:)%5/ D#2)5* >4%/#* *%%&/
62# 344 :2# 5#7%:)3:#* 93&3(#:#&/ 3 >%5>#34#*
$&%( :2# 9;D4)>%;5:#&93&:[
Y4 &' &34#+#'4&3/ 4) )I'#+*# 4"04 022 4"# C",9#E
3D%;: 9&)>#/ )/ >%5>#5:&3:#* (3)548 %5 :2# 9&)>)57
)- >?5 B"#3 4"# 73/ )5 >%(9#5/3:)%5 $%& ):/ %D4)73:)%5 :%
'6I'&%&T# %)
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
12/26
13vol.29 no.3 september 2014
43:#* 9&)>#/ :23: 3 6#44 D#4%6 >%/:< R2# *%#/
:2)/ 4#3G# 123)435* 6):2 I&* :% 73/ /#>:%& $%&([
O)&/:0 :2# 3;:2%& D#4)#G#/ :23: 123)435* 5##*/
:% *% 3638 6):2 344 >;&: >&%// /;D/)*)#/ :23:
*)/:%&: :2# >2%)># %$ #5#&78 /%;&>#< 12# /2%;4*
I# 0 '&3/2# 9+&(# -)+ >?5 -)+ 022 6'#+'N !"&' '")62%
D# :2# )(9%&:+93&):8 9&)># )$ 123)435* /:)44 5##*/ :%&F5 4) 3:#* :% :2# 9#:&%>2#()>34 )5*;/:&80
:2# )/ 5% /%5 628 :2# )5*;/:&8 /2%;4* 5%: 9384"# '0?5 0' %) )4"#+ I6'&3#'' '#(4)+'
03% ")6'#")2%'N V-4#+ 022A PX5 X"## $%&(#/ 3 :% 34)75 6):2 >%/:/
35* 3/ 9&)># *)$$#:)3:)%5 )/ 3D%4)/2#*0 :2# 7%G#&5+
(#5: /2%;4* *% 3638 6):2 :2# 2)7248 >%5:&%G#&/)34
CU&2 ]63%E 4"04 "0' I##3 6'#% 4) (+)'' '6I'&%&T#
9&)>#/ %$ *)$$#: :89#/ %$ $;#4 3>&%// *)$$#:
:89#/ %$ ;/#&< Q3&(3&=#* $;5*/ 3 %$:#5 ()/(35+
37#* 35* 3D;/#* 7)G#5 :2# 43J />&;:)58 )5 /9#5*)57)57 $%& /;D/)*)#/ %& 9&)># /:3D)4)V3:)%5 >%;4*
D# 344%>3:#* *)>:48 $&%( :2# 53:)%534 D;*7#: 73/
9&)>#/ 6)44 4#3* :% 5#6 #J94%&3:)%5 35* 9&%*;>:)%5
%$ )5*)7#5%;/ 73/0 :2# 7%G#&5(#5: 5##*/ :% *#G#4%9
3 (% :&35/93: >%5>#//)%5+7&35:)57 )(# :23:
)/ D3/#* %5 %9#5 &%;5*/ %$ D)**)57 $%& *#/)753:#*CI2)(D'E B&4" (2#0+ ;602&1(04&)3' 03% ()3%&4&)3'A
3/ )/ :2# >3/# )5 "&3V)4>#//$;4
$%&( %$ :2# 123) #5#&78 /#>:%& Y;)/ 3 *#4)+
(04# I0203(&3/ )- I)4" #-1((, 03% #;6&4, /)02'N
?)2&(' 4"04 9+)8 >2357#/%(#/ :% 2;(35 399>)3:)%50 $3)&+
3#'' )+ #;6&4, 4+6
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
13/26
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
14/26
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
15/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW16
:)%5 )/ :2# 9&%9%&:)%5 %$ 9#%94# 23G)57 3 D35=
3>>%;5:35 D# )5 G3&)%;/ $%&(/0
:6% D3/)> $)535>)34 /#&G)>#/ ` >*): 35*
%#9)'&4 h 0+# &3()+9)+04#% &34) 4"# 1303(&02
)5>4;/)%5 )5*#J 35* :2# )5*)>3:%&/ >%;4* D#
:2# G%4;(# %$ >*): 35* *#9%/): 3G3)43D4# :%
0%624 &3%&*&%602' 0' 0 9+)9)+4&)3 )- 5W?N
!"# -)+)34 4#G#4< 12# /%;&>#/ %$
/#>%5*3&8 *3:3 ;/#* )5 %;& 35348/)/ )5>4;*# >%(+
3:%&/
;/#* )5 :2# >%5/:&;>:)%5 %$ IOI 3 9/#5:#* )5 13D4#
7N i#'624' -+)< 4"# 0302,'&' )- 4"# 2#*#2 )- 1303(&02
)5>4;/)%5 :2&%;72 :2# IOI %$ >%((#&>)34 D35=/0 MOI/
35* /#4$+2#49 7&%;9/ 3 /2%65 )5 O)7;/ !+C) P*K*1 .- -"+#+A"#1 "+A102".+ -.% 27*A"#1"R*, -"+#+A"#1 "+2/"/0/".+2 Q N8 7%.K"+A* "+ >??: #+, >?((
N&8#14[ ?@?5 -4#4 1&=+8/43 ,E 9;>? 85"'* 3$/$ 1&=+":43 7#&= 3"774#4'/ 541&'3$#E 5&8#145F
N&8#14[ ?@?5 -4#4 1&=+8/43 ,E 9;>? 85"'* 3$/$ 1&=+":43 7#&= 3"774#4'/ 541&'3$#E 5&8#145F
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
18/26
19vol.29 no.3 september 2014
3"$0%* @) P*K*1 .- -"+#+A"#1 "+A102".+ -.% 2*1-=5*17 $%.072 Q N8 7%.K"+A* "+ >?((
12# =#8 /;4:/ $&%( :2# 35348/)/ %$ %G#&344
1303(&02 &3(26'&)3A J22*22&*+/ .- B%*,"/ S#72 -.% 45#" T.02*5.1,2
K/ :2# /;4:/ )5 :2# 9G)%;/ /#>:)%5 /2%60
(%/: %$ :2# 9&%G)5>#/ )5 123)435* 23G# 4%6 :%
(%*#&3:# 3>>#// :% >%((#&>)34 D35= *#9%/):/ 35*
>*):/c 2%6#G#&0 ): ()72: D# :2# >3/# :23: /%(#
9#%94# )5 :2%/# 9&%G)5>#/ /:)44 23G# >%5/:&3)5#*
3>>#// :% D3/)> *#9%/): 35* >*): /#&G)>#/ )5 :2#
$%&(34 D35=)57 /8/:#(< M)5># :2# 43>= %$ 3>>#// :%>*): )/ (% 9G34#5: )5 7#5#&340 :2)/ /#>:)%5 )/
$%>;/#* (% %5 >*): )//;#/*): >%5/:&3)5:/ )(9%/# 3 5#73:)G# )(93>: %5
2%;/#2%4*/ 35* D;/)5#//#/0 93&:)>;43&48 :2%/# #5+
:#&9&)/#/ 35* 2%;/#2%4*/ :23: 23G# >%((#&>)3448
G)3D4# )5G#/:(#5: 9&%X#>:/ D;: >355%: 3>>#// /;$+
1(" 0? 85"'* 3$/$ 1&=+":43 7#&= 3"774#4'/ 541&'3$#E 5&8#145F
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
19/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW20
/:;*8 62)>2 #/:)(3:#/ :2# /)V# %$ :2# >*): 739 )5
!"0&203%N !"# 9+#'#34 '46%, &' 0&23/)(30 35* d3=2%5 M) 123((3&3::)%50 6# #/:)(3:# :2# (%*#4 $%& :2#
*#/)* *#D: 4#G#4 )$ 2%;/#2%4*/ 3 5%: >*): >%5+
/:&3)5#* 35* 2%4* 3 9%/):)G# 4#G#4 %$ *#D:< R# :2#5
6'# 4"# ()#-1("' -+)< '6(" :)%5 #Y;3:)%5/ BFE 35* B]E 62)>2
/#: 393&: 2%;/#2%4*/ :23: 3 >*): >%5/:&3)5#* $&%(
:2%/# :23: 3 5%: >%5/:&3)5#*0 35* 2%;/#2%4*/ :23:23G# 3 9%/):)G# 4#G#4 %$ *#D:0 /9#>:)G#48< R# :2#5
#/:)(3:# :2# #Y;3:)%5 $%& 2%;/#2%4*/? *#/)* 4#G#4
%$ *#D:Z
34%57 6):2 :2# 9&%D): (%*#4/ $%& >*): >%5/:&3)5#*
/):;3:)%5 35* *#D: )5>)*#5># /9#>:)G#48Z
62# )"
*#5%:#/ 2%;/#2%4* "?/ *#/)* 4#G#4 %$
*#D:0 3 G3&)3D4# 62)>2 6)44 D# %D/#&G#* %548 3(%57
2%;/#2%4*/ :23: 3 5%: >*): >%5/:&3)5#* 35* 23G#
3 9%/):)G# 4#G#4 %$ *#D:
35*dC$3 G#>:%&/
%$ #J94353:%&8 G3&)3D4#/ :23: #J943)5 2%;/#2%4*
*#D:0 >*): >%5/:&3)5: 35* *#D: )5>)*#5>#0 /9#>+
:)G#48< # %$ >*): >%5/:&3)5:/0 K
"35* :2#
#J)/:#5># %$ %;:/:35*)57 *#D:0 b"0 /9#>:)G#4834480 6# %D/#&G# :2# D)53&8 G3&)3D4#K":23:
:3=#/ 3 G34;# %$ %5# )$ 3 2%;/#2%4* "63/ *#5)#*
93&:)34 %& $;44 >*):0 %& *)* 5%: 39948 $%& 3 4%35
*;# :% $#3& %$ *#5)34 B*): :% &)/=8 35* )44)Y;)*
>;/:%(#&/< K/ /2%65 )5 13D4# @0 :2# /%>)%+#>%5%()>
>23&3>:#&)/:)>/ %$ 2%;/#2%4*/ 6# 34/% $%;5* :%
I# '&/3&1(034 -0(4)+' 4"04 #H920&3 4"# (+#%&4 ()3+
/:&3)5: >%5*):)%5< N%;/#2%4*/ 6):2 3 +:)G#48 %4*
2%;/#2%4* 2#3* 3 4#// 4)=#48 :% D# *#5)#* >*):3+:)%5 B%& 4#//E 35* 3 2%;/#2%4* 2#3* :23: >#)G#* 3
/#>%5*3&8 #*;>3:)%5 %& 63/ 363&*#* 3 G%>3:)%534
(#+4&1(04# 0+#
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
21/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW22
2%;/#2%4* 2#3*0 3 34/% $%;5* :% D# )(9%&:35:
*#:#&()535:/ %$ *#D: )5>)*#5>#< N%;/#2%4*/ 6):2
%4*#& 2#3* %$ 2%;/#2%4* >%(93* :% 2%;/#2%4*/6):2 8%;57#& 2#3* %$ 2%;/#2%4*0 35* 2%;/#2%4*/
62%/# 2%;/#2%4* 2#3* 23/ 4%6 4#G#4 %$ #*;>3:)%5
0+# 2#'' 2&D#2, 4) I# &3%#I4#% 4) -)+%&+:#* 6):2 2%;/#2%4*/? )5>%(#< I5
9&3>:)>#0 :2# )5>%(# %$ :2# 4%35 3994)>35: )/ :2# =#8$3>:%& )5 *#:#&()5)57 :2# >*): 4)():< K 4%6+)5>%(#
3994)>35: )/ :2;/ (% 4)=#48 :% D# 7&35:#* 3 /(344
>*): 4)():< M#>%5*0 :2# 3(%;5: %$ %;:/:35*)57
*#D: *#9#5*/ %5 2%;/#2%4* /)V#0 37#0 #*;>3:)%534
D3>=7&%;5* 35* %>>;93:)%5 %$ :2# 2%;/#2%4* 2#3*2 3/ 2%;/#2%4*/ 6):2 3 8%;57#& 2#3*
D#>3;/# 3 8%;57#& 2%;/#2%4* 2#3* 23/ 7:#&
9%:#5:)34 :% 3>>;(;43:# 3 43&7# 3(%;5: %$ #3&5)57/23&3>:#&)V#* D8 3 4%:%$ /9#5*)57c :2#$% :2# 2%;/#2%4*/ 6):2 (%
(#(D#&/ :#5* :% D%&&%6 (% +:)G# :% %:2#&
7&%;9/< N%;/#2%4*/ 2#3*#* D8 35 #5:#;&0
#(94%8## )5 3 9&)G3:# >%(9358 %& 3 9#&/%5 62%
6%&=/ )5 :2# 37&)>;4:;&34 /#>:%& :#5* :% 23G# 43&7#&
%;:/:35*)57 *#D:/ >%(93* 6):2 2%;/#2%4*/ 6):2
35 ;5#(94%8#* 2#3*< 12# #*;>3:)%534 D3>=7&%;5*
%$ :2# 2%;/#2%4* 2#3* 34/% (3::#&/< I$ :2# 2%;/#+
2%4* 2#3* >#)G#* 3: 4#3/: 3 :#&:)3&8 #*;>3:)%50 :2#
3(%;5: %$ %;:/:35*)57 2%;/#2%4* *#D: 6%;4* D# 4#//+:)G# :% 2%;/#2%4*/ 62%/# 2#3* 23/ 3 4%6#& #*;+
>3:)%534 D3>=7&%;5*< 12# :89# %$ 2%;/#2%4* 3//#:/
9438/ 3 &%4# )5 #J943)5)57 :2# 3(%;5: %$ %;:/:35*)57
%#I4N ^)6'#")2%' B&4" 909/>9/&0. >/+*/4&0*&' 09 ;5;F? ;5;G 0*1 ;5F;? %'>6'&9/H'.,5
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
22/26
23vol.29 no.3 september 2014
f, ()3'&%#+&3/ 4"# #'4&
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
23/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW24
3. Conclusion and Policy
Implications
"3/#* %5 :2# 35348/)/ %$ 377I:# 4#G#4 %$
1303(&02 &3(26'&)3 0(+)'' 9+)*&3(#' &3 !"0&203%A &4 &'
3993: :23: (%/: %$ :2# 9&%G)5>#/ )5 123)435* 23G#
2)B 4) 454$#12 ?'5/"/8/4F
N&8#14[ S5/"=$/43 ,E 92$":$'3 ;4
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
24/26
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
25/26
QUARTERLY REVIEW26
12)&*0 6):2 35 ;5$3G%&3D4# >*): 2)/:%&80
/;>2 3/ $3)4; :% 3 4%35 )5 3 :)(#48 (355#&
)+ %#-0624&3/ )3 %#I4'A I)++)B#+' B&22 -0(# %&-1(624,
&3 )I40&3&3/ (+#%&4 -+)< 1303(&02 &3'4&464&)3'N Y3
%&*#& :% 2#49 /;>2 7&%;9/ %$ 9%:#5:)34 D%&&%6#&/0 ):
)/ )(9%&:35: :23: 3 *#D:%&+$&)#5*48 *#D: /:&;>:;&)57
/>2#(# D# #/:3D4)/2#*%5+
*):)%5/ %$ $%&(34 $)535>)34 )5/:):;:)%5/ 3 :2#
=#8 %D/:3>4#/ :23: 4)(): :2# 3>>#// %$ 4%6+)5>%(#
")6'#")2%' 4) 1303(&02 '#+*&(#'N d&4" 4"&' &3 %5>#&5)57 :2# )//;35># %$ 5#6 4)>#5/#/ $%&
4;*#* $&%( 3>>#//)57
1303(&02 '#+*&(#'A 90+4&(620+2, (+#%&4A -)+ ')9'%Q:$'FB)5 123)E
^#(D R#4$3
M8/:#(Z O)535>)57 5##*/< W39#& 9]* $%& :2# @.!.
b#3&+#5* S%5$#># %5 _#*;>)57 I5#Y;34):8 35* S:+
&3/ Z()3)
-
8/10/2019 TDRI QR September 2014
26/26