tech sector pitch
TRANSCRIPT
Tech Sector PitchOctober 20, 2020
Georges MahamaPortfolio Strategist
Burke MishoeUS Markets Analyst
Andre LimonLATAM Analyst
Apple x MicrosoftTech Sector Overview
Current Tech Holdings
Tech Sector Performance
AppleInvestment Thesis
The brand for the rest of us.
Taking a byte into services.
Hardware just works. Those who outsource, and those who don't.
AppleCompany Strategy
Company Strategy
Focus on Design and Functionality of Products
● First mover advantage ● Committed to bringing the best user experience to its
customers
Strengthening Apple Ecosystem
● Apple’s vertical integration● Opportunities to leverage relationships
Decreasing Dependence on the Sale of iPhones
● Prioritizing its services business and other divisions● Machine learning, AI, Siri
1
1
1
LeadersEcosystem
Services
AppleFinancial Highlights
Price History Q3 Financial Highlights ● 2 trillion dollar market cap
● EPS: $2.58 vs. $2.04 est.
● Revenue: $59.69 billion vs. $52.25 billion est.
● 4-to-1 Stock Split
Product Revenue Increase● iPhone:$26.42 billion vs. $22.37 billion est.
● iPad: $6.58 billion vs. $4.88 billion est.
● Mac:$7.08 billion vs. $6.06 billion est.
● Other Product Revenue: $6.45 billion vs. $6 billion est.
AppleRevenue Breakdown
Growth Estimates (2021)● Total Revenue: +14.20%● iPhone Sales: +12.34%● Operating Expenses: -1.03%● Services Margin: 63.7%
AppleCompetitors and Comps Model
AppleValuation
AppleValuation
AppleTechnical Analysis
AppleAnalyst Recommendations
Monte Carlo Simulation Annualized VolatilityCorrelation Matrix
Low correlation risk with our current holdings
Mean: $ 205.17Median: $ 172.44
Strong risk adjusted returns. Medium volatility
AppleRisk/Return Analysis
MicrosoftInvestment Thesis
Trusted Reputation
Unique Portfolio of Products
Software Company with a Cloud Component
MicrosoftCompany Strategy
Experiences spanning a variety of devicesMobile
1st
Company Strategy
Services and InfrastructureCloud
1st
Mobile 1st, Cloud 1st
● Creating an unique experiences through all devices
● Expansion of Data Centers across the globe
● SaaS, PaaS, IaaS
Reinvent Productivity and Business Process
● Development of Microsoft 365
● Acquisitions of LinkedIn and Affirmed NetworkContinuous M&A Activity Strategic Alliances
Microsoft
Price History Q3 Financial Highlights
Product Revenue Increase
● Revenue was $35.0 billion and increased 15%
● Operating income was $13.0 billion and increased
25%
● Net income was $10.8 billion and increased 22%
● Office 365 Commercial revenue growth of 25%
● LinkedIn revenue increased 21%
● Dynamics products and cloud services revenue increased 17%
Financial Highlights
Microsoft
Revenue Growth Revenue by Product
Revenue Breakdown
Microsoft
MSFT stands out in key metrics such as ROE and sales growth.
Comps Analysis
MicrosoftValuation and Sensitivity
MicrosoftValuation and Sensitivity
Microsoft
UpsideBase Case
Exit multiple 23.6x
Consensus Estimates
Historical averages in BS and IS assumptions
Downside
$ 222.18 $ 235.98 $ 256.00
Exit multiple 22x
Consensus Estimates
Historical averages in BS and IS assumptions
Exit multiple 24x
Consensus Estimates
Minor adjustments to BS and IS
Scenario Comparison
MicrosoftTechnical Analysis
MicrosoftAnalyst Recommendation
Microsoft
Monte Carlo Simulation Annualized VolatilityCorrelation Matrix
Low correlation risk with our current holdings
Mean: $ 335.86Median: $ 284.68
Strong risk adjusted returns, medium volatility
Risk Return Analysis
Buy 45 Shares of MSFTCurrent Price - $ 216.44
RecommendationApple x Microsoft
Buy 80 Shares of AAPLCurrent Price - $ 122.72
AppleAppendix
MicrosoftAppendix
Global Network Locations Azure Cloud Services
MicrosoftAppendix
MicrosoftAppendix
AAPL
1. Sector overview 2. Investment Thesis(Georges)3. Company strategy (Burke)4. Revenue Breakdown (Georges)5. Financial Highlights, price performance (Burke)6. Competitors and comps model (Andre)7. DCF and sensitivity (Georges)8. Price target breakdown of scenarios (Burke)9. Technical analysis (Georges)
10. Risk return discussion(Andre)11. Key conclusion (Burke)
Optional
Supply chain analysis, geographic breakdown, swot analysis.
MSFT
1. Sector overview2. Investment Thesis (Georges)3. Company strategy( Burke)4. Revenue Breakdown (Andre)5. Financial Highlights, price performance (Burke)6. Competitors and comps model (Andre)7. DCF and sensitivity (Andre)8. Price target breakdown of scenarios (Andre)9. Technical analysis (Burke)
10. Risk return discussion (Andre)11. Key conclusion (Andre)
Optional
Supply chain analysis, geographic breakdown, swot analysis.