“The best way to anticipate the future is by understanding the present”- John Naisbitt

A VISION OF THE TELECOM FUTURE IN THE YEAR 2020

Suggestions & Thoughts Are Welcome

AGENDA

A synopsis of the Telecom Industry in

2020

Some Intrinsic Parameters in relevance to

India

Some though points for the audience

Summary

The Telecom Industry of 2020 will have…… Fewer Operators as we know them today… The industry will see

them emerging as Network Providers providing last mile access to subscribers

Several Service Providers…. As layers will increase and several IP Service Providers will emerge (Skype, Google etc.)

Consolidated Infrastructure Providers… These players will have significant roles to play diverging from tower assets to owning fiber – some of them are already investing in active sharing & in-building solutions

Device vendors with customer service relationships… iPhone and Apple are already walking this path through their app stores

Interoperable co-existing technology layers…. The evolution path is today defined in a way to pave the path for backward integration with older technologies..

Varied Telecom Service Providers business models… the MVNO will evolve to Service provider status where the Operator will become a wireless network provider and the VAS companies will evolve to IP based service providers..

Now lets understand some macro factors that will effect this in India… Regulation – A proven major factor in India

Will the government allow a complete rev share existence & allow VoIP Will the regulation open up and allow new business models like network providers, infra

providers and service providers where the Service providers will be a morphised form of what are today called the MVNO’s?

Technology – What will future of 4G & LTE be… 1 billion users will carry some device or the other in India to connect to others.. voice will definitely become an IP product on an all-fiber network Could mean that gradually voice will become free or either a low-cost application in a bundle

of services?? Already 2 PC users can chat and talk for free using facebook chat & skype etc.

India’s Macro-economic standing – The bridged divide? The percapita income of India and our GDP will grow significantly and consumer awareness

and demand will match that of the west…. Through a growing individual buying power

Operator Business Models – More important choice than technology The monetization of the IP based, application service technology is what will differentiate the

operators from each other… the last step to connectivity will have to be wireless but a higely increased fiber network will

make several technologies possible to reach the end consumer and his device.. we might see various tiers of operators much like the automobile industry where there are

pure voice based economical operators or there are 4G & LTE based high-end service providers…

the evolution path today will guarantee an interoperability between these types..

Let us now discuss some thought points that will lead

the path towards Investment choices in Business

Models, Technology Platforms and Strategic Tie-

ups…

Only 5-6 operators might remain from the current 13 + in India….. And they might be classified as Infrastructure Providers?.. Their key roles will become…

Providers of Access Connectivity (wireless and wired) Controlling the Subscriber Lifecycle from Subscription to Billing & Collections Providing Bundled Services to the customers – through IP Service provider tie-

ups or through building own suites

Their main competition will be from…. IP based Service Providers building direct relationships with customers on

bandwidth and connectivity provided by Operators Tower or Passive Infra companies that are increasingly going to own active

components like fiber and microwave… these companies can actually act as entire network providers for certain class of services

The main choices for them today are…. Business Model choices – the Operator looking to offer a complete converged

quadruple-play service will emerge as a winner Technology choice – The choice of technology will be guided by the access layer

coverage as it is today. Though the devices of 2020 will support all formats there will be a requirement to service the lower segment on a separate commercially feasible network

The emergence of the independent Service Provider category… who might treat todays Operators as Bit-Pipe providers…. These companies will emerge from the Internet Domain…

Providing Voice on IP (Skype does that today!) Providing Entertainment products through their applications (IPTV,

Internet radio) Providing Information through IP products (Google Maps)

Only regulation stops them today…. Will it stay that way? They will make voice a free by-product They will create direct commercial relationships with customers

What is the way to deal with these players today… Join them through long-term partnership strategy now.. Fight them in the Telecom Backyard and beat them through regulation

and customer control Prepare the Telecom companies to fight them in their backyard by

creating in house competence

The encroachment of the Device Vendors…..Who want to create a garden wall of pre-loaded applications around the customer… Apple is leading the way in this space with integrated products

Pre-loaded applications API based apps can be sold through the iStore Huge business sub-models already created around to weave a customer web

Google is poised to enter this space through their unique apps Google maps will lead the way to Augmented Reality applications They have the biggest indexed database of almost everything..

And the New Mother of them all – Facebook… what if they launch a hardware product??

Today has 450Million users compared to 70 Million on Gmail and is the biggest subscription ownership in the world…

Just FarmVille its sub-application enjoys more subscribers that most Telcos The number of FB posts between users outnumbers any mailing server FB is poised to enter the IP based Application space in a big way and is giving

Google sleepless nights..

Some other smaller implications that will have bearing on the outlook of the industry in general……

ARPU & MOU will not remain the parameters to judge the financials of an Operator

as an increasing part of his revenue will come from data including VoIP usage..

where the existence of fiber in abundance will enable real-time VoIP where MOU will become data

Device subscriptions will increase dramatically…. …..and what is today known as Machine-2-Machnie (M2M)

communication will increase White goods manufacturers like Aircon, TV, Microwave etc will

have pre-fitted SIMS which can activate and control devices remotely…

Some Technologies might face rough weather….& Some Services will have to change the way they are delivered to end-customers…. Broadcast based products might not find takers… for

example..

Satellite TV and Cable TV industry will be impacted..

Fiber will make these IP based products with a multi-cast

reach where all channels will have global reach

Radio stations at home are already run on PCs…

Technologies that are not supported by ULCD (Ultra Low

Cost Devices) will find it hard to grow…

WiMAX promoters will have to work against this

LTE & 4G promoters will need to ensure this happens

A summary slide to remind the viewers….

That though IP in a Version 6 Avatar will prevail and…

Consumers will increasingly control what they want and how

they want it..

The means to this envisioned Scenario in 2020 is as

important to understand… and this Means will be laden

with..

Choices on technology & business models

Some brave and some successful attempts

Some global collaborations and some headstrong bets

That we should always give deserving

importance to our means of accomplishing

Visions

THANK YOU