Telescoping effects and Telescoping effects and survey nonresponse in the survey nonresponse in the

National Crime National Crime Victimization SurveyVictimization Survey

Michael Rand

U.S. Bureau of Justice StatisticsU.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics

UN Meeting on Crime StatisticsVienna, Austria

January 25-27, 2006

TelescopingTelescoping

National Crime SurveyNational Crime SurveyInternal and External TelescopingInternal and External Telescoping

6 month reference period

Forwardexternaltelescoping

Backwardexternaltelescoping

Month of

interviewInternal telescoping

National Crime Victimization SurveyNational Crime Victimization SurveyPeriod to period recountingPeriod to period recounting

6 month reference period

Date ofinterview

Date ofpreviousinterview

Incidents heldfrom previousinterview

Incidents helduntil nextinterview

Period to period recounting eliminates backward telescoping

Reasons for unbounded interviews in the NCVS Reasons for unbounded interviews in the NCVS Time in sample 2Time in sample 2--7 interviews, 7 interviews, 19951995--9797

16.6%16.6%TotalTotal

0.70.7Persons in units that are in samplePersons in units that are in samplefor the first timefor the first time

1.81.8Persons added to the household thisPersons added to the household thisenumerationenumeration

2.82.8Persons in households that were Persons in households that were noninterviewsnoninterviews the previous the previous enumerationenumeration

4.0 4.0 Person was a Person was a noninterviewnoninterview (in an (in an interviewed household) the previous interviewed household) the previous enumerationenumeration

7.2%7.2%Persons in replacement householdsPersons in replacement households

Percent ofPercent ofinterviewsinterviewsReasonReason

16.6%16.6%TotalTotal

0.70.7Persons in units that are in samplePersons in units that are in samplefor the first timefor the first time

1.81.8Persons added to the household thisPersons added to the household thisenumerationenumeration

2.82.8Persons in households that were Persons in households that were noninterviewsnoninterviews the previous the previous enumerationenumeration

4.0 4.0 Person was a Person was a noninterviewnoninterview (in an (in an interviewed household) the previous interviewed household) the previous enumerationenumeration

7.2%7.2%Persons in replacement householdsPersons in replacement households

Percent ofPercent ofinterviewsinterviewsReasonReason

NCVS NCVS OverreportingOverreporting ratios and ratios and adjustment factors, adjustment factors, 19951995--97 average97 average

1.1951.1950.840.84TheftTheft

1.0851.0850.920.92Motor vehicle theftMotor vehicle theft

1.0821.0820.920.92BurglaryBurglary

1.1711.1710.850.85Property crimeProperty crime

0.8870.8871.131.13AssaultAssault

0.8640.8641.161.16RobberyRobbery

1.0661.0660.940.94Rape/ sexual assaultRape/ sexual assault

0.8900.8901.121.12Violent crimeViolent crime

0.8840.8841.131.13Personal crimePersonal crime

Potential Potential Adjustment Adjustment FactorFactor

AvgAvg Ratio Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2Type of crimeType of crime

1.1951.1950.840.84TheftTheft

1.0851.0850.920.92Motor vehicle theftMotor vehicle theft

1.0821.0820.920.92BurglaryBurglary

1.1711.1710.850.85Property crimeProperty crime

0.8870.8871.131.13AssaultAssault

0.8640.8641.161.16RobberyRobbery

1.0661.0660.940.94Rape/ sexual assaultRape/ sexual assault

0.8900.8901.121.12Violent crimeViolent crime

0.8840.8841.131.13Personal crimePersonal crime

Potential Potential Adjustment Adjustment FactorFactor

AvgAvg Ratio Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2Type of crimeType of crime

NCVS NCVS OverreportingOverreporting ratios and ratios and adjustment factors, adjustment factors, 19951995--97 97

1.131.131.181.181.081.08AssaultAssault

1.121.121.181.181.171.17RobberyRobbery

1.111.111.181.181.081.08Violent crimeViolent crime

1997 Ratio 1997 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2

1996 Ratio 1996 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2

1995 Ratio 1995 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS2 1/ TIS2 Type of crimeType of crime

1.131.131.181.181.081.08AssaultAssault

1.121.121.181.181.171.17RobberyRobbery

1.111.111.181.181.081.08Violent crimeViolent crime

1997 Ratio 1997 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2

1996 Ratio 1996 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS21/ TIS2

1995 Ratio 1995 Ratio TISTIS--1/ TIS2 1/ TIS2 Type of crimeType of crime

NoninterviewsNoninterviews

NCVS NCVS noninterviewnoninterview typestypes

Type AType A: : eligible household not interviewedeligible household not interviewed

Type BType B: : Address temporarily not eligibleAddress temporarily not eligible

Type CType C: : Address permanently not eligibleAddress permanently not eligible

Type ZType Z: : eligible household member in eligible household member in

interviewed household not interviewedinterviewed household not interviewed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Percent

Census Bureau Household Surveynonresponse rates, 1990-2003

NCVS: National Crime Victimization Survey CPS: Current Population SurveyCED: Consumer Expenditure Survey (Diary) NHIS: National Health Interview SurveyCEQ: Consumer Expenditure Survey (Quarterly)

NCVS

CED CEQ

CPS

NHIS

NCVS NCVS NoninterviewNoninterview rates, 1973rates, 1973--0404

0%

5%

10%

15%

1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Type A (Household)

Type Z (Person)

NCVS TISNCVS TIS--1 Type A 1 Type A noninterviewnoninterviewreasonsreasons

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Refused

No one home

Other

NCVS Type Z NCVS Type Z noninterviewnoninterview rates by rates by age, 2002: Malesage, 2002: Males

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

non-black black

12-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+

NCVS Type Z NCVS Type Z noninterviewnoninterview rates by rates by age, 2002: Femalesage, 2002: Females

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

non-black black

12-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+