temperature dependant discount factor ros august 16, 2007
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Temperature Dependant Discount Factor ROS August 16, 2007. Proposal. Utilize Weather Zone temperatures to determine the Discount Factor Increase the accuracy of the Discount Factor by considering Actual Hourly Temperatures by weather zone. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Temperature Dependant Discount Factor
ROSAugust 16, 2007
2
August, 2007
• Utilize Weather Zone temperatures to determine the Discount Factor
– Increase the accuracy of the Discount Factor by considering Actual Hourly Temperatures by weather zone.
– Resulting in a more accurate representation of reserves on the system.
• Reserve Discount Factor (RDF)
– A representation of the average amount of system wide capability that, for whatever reason, is historically undeliverable during periods of high system demand. The RDF will be verified by ERCOT and then approved by the ROS.
Proposal
3
August, 2007
NORTH_CEAST
SOUTHERN
COASTSOUTH_C
WESTFARWEST
NORTH
4
August, 2007
Approach
• Vary the discount factor applied to each unit based on weather zone and actual temperature in the weather zone. The discount will vary between 4% and 7%.– Zonal temperature ≥ 95 degrees Fahrenheit = 7% discount– Zonal temperature ≥ 85 & < 95 degrees Fahrenheit = 5% discount– Zonal temperature <85 degrees Fahrenheit = 4% discount
• The temperature boundary parameters could be re-configured based on ERCOT operational experience
5
August, 2007
EECP 06-18-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
13:35 14:45 15:55 17:05 18:15 19:25
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
EECP STEP 1
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
91.6OF 87.5OF 103.5OF 81.5OF 90.75OF 90.0OF 93.2OF 90.8OF
6
August, 2007
ALERT 06-27-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
12:05 13:15 14:25 15:35 16:45 17:55
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
89.6OF 86.5OF 87OF 83OF 82.5OF 86.5OF 89.8OF 81OF
7
August, 2007
ALERT 07-03-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
12:05 13:15 14:25 15:35
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
EECP STEP 1
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
83.7OF 81.5OF 91.0OF 83.0OF 82.75OF 81.5OF 83.2OF 79.4OF
8
August, 2007
ALERT 07-28-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
12:05 13:15 14:25 15:35 16:45 17:55
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
87.9OF 81.5OF 83.5OF 89.5OF 87.25OF 86.0OF 87.0OF 84.6OF
9
August, 2007
EECP 08-01-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
12:05 13:15 14:25 15:35 16:45 17:55
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
90.8OF 81.5OF 90OF 81.5OF 93.5OF 90.5OF 92.4OF 89.4OF
10
August, 2007
ADVISORY 08-06-2007 COMPARISION OF TEMP ADJ RRS AND ADJ RRS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
12:05 13:15 14:25 15:35 16:45 17:55
REMAINING BALANCING ENERGY MW
ADJ RRS
UBES REMAINING MWADJ RRS
Adj RRS with TDF
ALERT
COAST EAST FARWEST NORTH NORTH_CENTRAL SOUTH_CENTRAL SOUTHERN WEST
93.5OF 91.5OF 97OF 93.5OF 95.75OF 92.0OF 93.2OF 93.2OF
11
August, 2007
Conclusion
• Recommend using a temperature dependant Reserve Discount Factor – Higher temperatures will have more severe impacts on unit limits– History has indicated the need for a discount to be applied to
Reserves– Dynamically adjusting the discount factor based on temperatures,
should result in a more accurate reflection of actual system reserves