territorial dynamics in chiloé iaae 2009
DESCRIPTION
Presentación realizada por Eduardo Ramírez y Félix Modrego de Rimisp en la 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists realizada en Beijing, China, entre el 16 y 22 de agosto de 2009.TRANSCRIPT
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Territorial Dynamics in Chiloé
Eduardo Ramírez and Felix Modrego
Rimisp – Latin American Center for rural Development
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Background
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The area of study
• Castro, Dalcahue, Chonchi, Curaco de Vélez, Quinchao, Puqueldón.
•Territory articulated around the city of Castro
•From traditional agriculture and fishing and tourism to the salmon industry
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Conceptual framework
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Evolution of the industry
Salmon (thousand ton)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
LGPA
RCAAARSIA RAMA
RESA
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The institucional change
Property rights without limit of time over concession
Concessions can be sold/bought in the market Processing (cambiar no sé la palabra exacta)
in order to obtain property right is costly and difficult
Environmental management based on self-regulation systems
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Industry concentration
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Nº firmas
Tons (thousands)
Top 5 industries
Top 10 industries
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Effects on the territory
Social changes (Income, population, poverty, employment)
Environmental changes Cultural changes
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Some economics changes
Year 2003 Year 2006
Total Chile
Communes with salmons
Communes without salmons
Total Chile
Communes with salmons
Communes without salmons
Poverty (%) 19 17 25.1 13.7 9.9 19.6 Indigence (%) 5 3 6 3.2 2.6 4.3 Income ($ de nov 2006)
579,919 478,135 419,591 613,206 560,244 452,012
Education 10.2 8.9 9 10.1 9 9.1 Analphabetism 4 5.7 5.3 3 4.1 4.6
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Environmental effects
Pollution in marine ecosystems due to salmon feeding practices (Buschmann, A. y Fortt, A. 2005)
Pollution in marine ecosystems due to applications of chemical (Chile apply 75 times more antibiotics by than Norway) (Cabello, F. 2003 )
Impacts on native ocean fauna due to the escape of salmons (Pizarro, R. y Furci, G. 2006)
Beach pollution with industrial residues Proliferation of salmon diseases (ISA) due to poor
sanitary management and weak control systems
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Community perceptions on the salmon industry contribution
1005887
0000
2200Without opinion
4202High negative
2002Negative
5014Neutral
150213Beneficial
720567High BeneficialYour perception that community think about salmon industries
TotalWONoYes
¿Are you agree?
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The survey
Data: Stratified Multi-stage sample design Territorial representative sample 856 surveyed households Retrospective questions to address demographic, labor and assets
changes Current income module (multiple income sources)
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Group incomes
Livelihood strategies Mean autonomous income (year 2009)
Freq. 1990 (%) Freq. 2009 (%)
Pure ag (1) 72,052 27.2 16.3 Mixed ag (2) 183,056 a 4.4 5.7 Pure acq/fish (3) 90,468 a b 13.3 19.9 Mixed acq/fish (4) 167,175 a b c 3.2 7.8 Sec-tertiary (5) 149,137 a b c d 22.9 33.7 Other (6) 113,593 a b c d e 28.9 16.7 (a) Statistically dif. from (1). (b) Statistically dif. from (2). (c) Statistically dif. from (3). (d) Statistically dif. from (4). (e) Statistically dif. from (5). Individual confidence level: 5% (t method) Welch standard errors, Satterthwaite approximate degrees of freedom.
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Transition matrix
Pure ag (1) Mixed ag (2) Pure acq/fish (3)
Mixed acq/fish (4)
Sec-tertiary (5)
Other (6)
Pure ag (1) 0.381 0.104 0.158 0.005 0.094 0.257 Mixed ag (2) 0.242 0.303 0.182 0.030 0.152 0.091 Pure acq/fish (3)
0.081 0.030 0.434 0.162 0.192 0.101
Mixed acq/fish (4)
0.000 0.000 0.167 0.333 0.458 0.042
Sec-tertiary (5)
0.029 0.035 0.059 0.065 0.700 0.118
Other (6) 0.107 0.009 0.251 0.098 0.358 0.177
19902008
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Factors affecting changes in Livelihood strategies (Order probit estimates, outcome = shift to a higher/lower income strategy, up to 5 (-5) clases
Spec. 1 Spec. 2
HH size 0.053** 0.057**
Access to institutions 0.204* 0.215**
Access to land -0.158* -0.185**
Members below 15 years old 0.016 0.011
Members above 64 years old -0.085* -0.102**
participation in social organizations 0.104 0.113
HH head with knowledge of traditional legends -0.130 -0.101
Averga years of shooling (members above 14 years old) 0.001 0.053**
Female HH head 0.008 0.004
Indigenous HH head -0.066 -0.364**
HH with radio -0.001 0.034
Same HH head 0.252*** 0.620***
Same HH headXschooling -0.094***
Same HH head X indigenous HH head 0.487**
N 739 739
pseudo R2 0.013 0.021
Wald x2 (p-val) 0.000 0.000
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Marginal effects
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
P-5 P-4 P-3 P-2 P-1 P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Outcome
P
P at mean values
Mg effect instit.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
P-5 P-4 P-3 P-2 P-1 P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Outcome
P
P at mean values
Mg effect land
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
P-5 P-4 P-3 P-2 P-1 P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Outcome
P
P at mean
Mg effect Elder
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
P-5 P-4 P-3 P-2 P-1 P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
OutcomeP
P at mean values
Mg effect education
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
P-5 P-4 P-3 P-2 P-1 P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Outcome
P
P at mean values
Mg effect indigenouesHH head
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Conclusions
Institutional change was a key factor permitting development of salmon industry in Chiloé (maybe as important as natural conditions)
Institutional change the way that marine space is administered, excluding local population of decision making
Institutional change without adequate environmental control (self regulation) also imply very negative impact over natural recourses, but…
Allowed the growth of a major industry that change territorial economy providing incentives to households to modify their livelihood strategies, but
Not all household seem equally propensity to shift their LS (for example Ag based HH seem less propensity to adapt, at least compared with aquic. Based HH)
Shift to higher income strategies seems associated to some assets (labor supply (+), land (-), access to institutions (+), education (+), ethnic (-).