Understanding Territorial Impacts:Tool for Territorial Impact Assessment

Bernd Schuh (ÖIR)Karkow, Nov. 2011

ESPON ARTS

The Tasks• Develop a simplified, evidence-based procedure of

Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA)• Supply policy makers with an operational procedure

that could work as a “evidence informed policy support”

• Analyse ex-ante the impact of EU policy proposals taking the sensitivity of regions into account

• Test the TIA quick check with a set of 12 directives

The theoretical approach

Policies Regions

Exposure Territorial sensitivity

Territorial impact

The vulnerability concept

Vulnerability Concept

• Potential effects (exposure): Which economic, social, and environmental fields could be affected by EU directives?

• (Territorial) sensitivity: Which characteristics make a territory potentially affected in its economic, social, and environmental fields?

• Impact: Which are the territorial effects of a certain policy given its potential effects and regional sensitivities?

• Adaptive capacity: How weak/strong is the ability of a system to adjust to the potential impact? => link to governance aspects

Definitions in ARTS

The TIA Quick Check

• A user-friendly methodology that allows to make a ‘quick and dirty’ ex-ante analysis of the potential impact of EU policy proposals on the development of regions

• Combining – a standardised indicator-based Excel tool with – means to systematically collect expert knowledge

in a workshop setting

An excel tool and a procedure

9 Steps to Assess the Territorial Impact of Policy Proposals

(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?

(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)

(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)

(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)

(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)

(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)

(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)

(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)

(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(1) Conceptual model: Brainstorming

Creating a systemic picture linking the regulations with territorial effects

(1) Result: Conceptual Model

Deducing potential effects from Directives

Input related sectors– pesticide production– spraying equipment

Land use/types of territories– Natura 2000/FFH – special use of land (hospitals, parks,

playgrounds)– strong protection

Implementation process

Socio-economic effects

Agricultural production quantity

Soil– „immission“ decreases– improvement of soil quality

Air– aerial spraying prohibited– Improvement of air quality

Water– efficient application techniques (no

aerial spraying, no drift application)– Improvement of water quality

Quality of Life Human Health

Recreational value of land

National Action Plan– Monitoring & Control

Training

Education/awareness

Agricultural production quality

Output related sectors– drinking water– fisheries– tourism

Environmental effects

Employment

Innovation

positive correlation

Regulative framework

Eco-system/Bio-diversity

Social effects

negative correlation

(sustainable use of) Pesticides

Emiss

ion

(2) Picturing different cause - effect chains(branching)

(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?

(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)

(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)

(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)

(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)

(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)

(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)

(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)

(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(3) Expert judgment: types of regions exposedDirective XX affected region

AgglomeratedAl l regionsChemica l industriesHarbour regionsHigh dens i ty of ra i lHigh dens i ty of road

a Industria l regionsMajor a i rport locationNatural areas

b Rura lShrinking regionsUnprofi table farmingUrban

Provided: 20 types of regions (NUTS2)to be selected

(3) Background: existing typologies of regions

code name Aggl

omer

ated

All r

egio

ns

Area

s at h

ighe

st

tech

/env

risk

Chem

ical

indu

strie

s

Dens

ily p

opul

ated

Fore

st

Harb

our r

egio

ns

AT11 Burgenland 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT12 Niederösterreich 0 1 0 1 0 1 0AT13 Wien 1 1 0 1 1 0 1AT21 Kärnten 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT22 Steiermark 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT31 Oberösterreich 0 1 1 1 0 1 0AT32 Salzburg 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT33 Tirol 0 1 0 0 0 1 0AT34 Vorarlberg 0 1 0 0 0 1 0BE10 Région de Bruxel les -Capi ta le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewest1 1 0 1 1 0 0BE21 Prov. Antwerpen 1 1 0 1 1 0 1BE22 Prov. Limburg (B) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0BE23 Prov. Oos t-Vlaanderen 1 1 1 1 0 0 1

0: no1: yes

(4) Expert judgment: exposure caused by Directive

0: no1: yes

(4) Background: List of 41 exposure fieldsNatural environment

Soil Water Air Climatic factors Fauna/Flora/Habitat

erosion water consumption pollutants in air emissions of CO2 biodiversity pollutants in soil pollutants in

ground/surface water

heavy rain/flood hazard/occurrence of landslides

conservation of natural heritage (landscape diversity)

share of artificial areas/soil sealing

conservation of cultural heritage

Regional economy

Economic development

Agriculture Industry Services Tourism

economic growth employment in primary sector

employment in secondary sector

employment in tertiary sector

overnight stays

innovation % of arable area, permanent grass/- crop area

entrepreneurship market barriers

Society and people

Social disparities Demography Accessibility Built environment Governance

disposable income in PPS per capita

out-migration/brain drain/”shrinking” regions

daily accessibility by air

increase of urbanization relative to population growth

efficiency of government/governance mechanisms

equal income distribution

number of people exposed to noise

daily accessibility by waterways

mixed land use duration or complexity of planning procedures

Employment rate accident rate in transport

daily accessibility by road

participation rate

accident risk: industry/energy supply

daily accessibility by rail

societal transfers (e.g. tax added)

healthy life expectancy at birth

renewable energy transnational cooperation between member states

fossil fuel consumption

(5) Input for impact: regional sensitivity

Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14

area

s at

risk

(PO

P+EM

PL)/

USA

BLE

LAN

D

% a

rtific

ial a

rea

% in

land

wat

er

(PO

P+EM

PL)/

USA

BLE

LAN

D

PM10

con

cent

ratio

n

Vehi

cle

conc

entr

ation

Floo

d ha

zard

% N

atur

a 20

00 a

reas

% n

atur

al a

reas

n° o

f TCI

3-s

tars

1/G

DP p

er c

apita

Shar

e of

pro

duct

&/o

r pr

oces

s in

nova

tion

%se

lf-em

pl o

n em

ploy

men

t

a t11 Burgenland 0,77 0,76 0,78 1,21 0,76 0,91 0,76 0,77 0,86 0,77 0,76 0,85 0,97 1,18

at12 Niederösterreich 0,75 0,76 0,78 1,24 0,76 0,9 0,76 0,78 0,86 0,76 0,77 0,83 0,98 1,16

at13 Wien 0,75 0,99 1,06 1,21 0,99 0,93 0,97 1,11 0,86 0,77 0,78 0,78 1,17 1,19

at21 Kärnten 0,77 0,76 0,76 1,24 0,76 0,84 0,76 0,77 0,86 0,88 0,76 0,83 0,99 1,18

at22 Steiermark 0,77 0,76 0,77 1,25 0,76 0,86 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,85 0,76 0,83 1,03 1,14

at31 Oberösterreich 0,75 0,76 0,77 1,23 0,76 0,88 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,78 0,76 0,81 0,99 1,18

at32 Salzburg 0,75 0,77 0,76 1,24 0,77 0,84 0,76 0,79 0,86 0,99 0,77 0,8 0,98 1,16

at33 Tirol 0,75 0,78 0,76 1,25 0,78 0,81 0,76 0,81 0,86 1,1 0,76 0,81 0,97 1,16

at34 Vorarlberg 0,75 0,79 0,78 1,23 0,79 0,82 0,76 0,81 0,86 1,04 0,75 0,8 1,05 1,19

be10 Région de Bruxel les-Capita le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewestna 1,07 1,19 1,25 1,07 0,98 1,1 0,95 0,83 0,75 0,79 0,76 1,01 1,13

be21 Prov. Antwerpen 0,75 0,78 0,91 1,23 0,78 0,98 0,79 0,77 0,84 0,76 0,76 0,8 1,06 1,16

be22 Prov. Limburg (B) 0,76 0,77 0,88 1,23 0,77 0,96 0,77 0,77 0,92 0,78 0,76 0,84 1,02 1,17

be23 Prov. Oost-Vlaanderen0,76 0,77 0,88 1,24 0,77 0,97 0,78 0,83 0,8 0,75 0,76 0,83 1,03 1,15

be24 Prov. Vlaams Brabant0,78 0,78 0,91 1,25 0,78 0,97 0,78 0,81 0,8 0,75 0,77 0,81 1,05 1,16

41 Normalised indicators: 0,75: minimum sensitivity1,25 maximum sensitivity

(5) Result: Calculation of territorial impact

Linking indicators with territorial units (NUTS2)E1 E2 E3 E10 E11 E12 E13 E14

AT11 Burgenland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT12 Niederösterreich 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT13 Wien 0,00 0,00 -1,06 -0,77 0,00 0,78 na 1,79AT21 Kärnten 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT22 Steiermark 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT31 Oberösterreich 0,00 0,00 -0,77 -0,78 0,00 0,81 na 1,78AT32 Salzburg 0,00 0,00 -0,76 -0,99 0,00 0,80 na 1,74AT33 Tirol 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 na 0,00AT34 Vorarlberg 0,00 0,00 -0,78 -1,04 0,00 0,80 na 1,78BE10 Région de Bruxel les -Capita le/Brussels Hoofdstedel i jk Gewestna 0,00 -1,19 -0,75 0,00 0,76 na 1,69BE21 Prov. Antwerpen 0,00 0,00 -0,91 -0,76 0,00 0,80 na 1,74BE22 Prov. Limburg (B) 0,00 0,00 -0,88 -0,78 0,00 0,84 na 1,76BE23 Prov. Oost-Vlaanderen 0,00 0,00 -0,88 -0,75 0,00 0,83 na 1,73BE24 Prov. Vlaams Brabant 0,00 0,00 -0,91 -0,75 0,00 0,81 na 1,74

very high positive impact minor negative impact

high positive impact moderate negative impact

moderate positive impact high negative impact

minor positive impact very high negative impact

no exposure

(6): Plausibility check

(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?

(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)

(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)

(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)

(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)

(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)

(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)

(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)

(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)

(7) Result: Map for each indicator

Effects of Directive on recognition of qualification on migration balance in countries of origin

(8) + (9): Dealing with the results

(1) The conceptual model: How does a directive affect the development of regions?

(2) Dealing with discrete cause/effect chains (branching)

(3) Which types of regions are affected? (regional exposure)

(4) What is the intensity of exposure on different fields? (exposure matrix)

(5) What is the territorial impact on regions? (Territorial Impact Matrix)

(6) Do the results make sense? (plausibility and quality check)

(7) Which regions are affected in which fields? (mapping the results)

(8) What are the policy implications? (adaptive capacity discussion)

(9) How to communicate the results? (write-up)

TIA Quick Check in 2 versions

The standard TIA quick check: • Helps to identify the relevant thematic fields that are

effected by a policy proposal. • Allows to select NUTS2 regions with a potentially high

positive or negative impact. • Helps to set a focus for further and more detailed impact

analysis. The advanced TIA quick check • Allows users to define special indicators describing the

exposure to policy proposals and the regional sensitivity• Provides the technical framework for the vulnerability

analysis• Can serve for a more detailed analysis of a specific

potential impact of policy proposals.

A Standard version and an Advanced version