terrorism and aid

8/6/2019 Terrorism and Aid

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Can economic development aid to theCan economic development aid to theFATA region be effectively used toFATA region be effectively used toundermine terrorism?undermine terrorism?

Presented by

Rachel Lund

Sonja Settele

Joonas Uotinen

Cristina Yoong



No, USNo, USAIDAID should stop giving economicshould stop giving economicdevelopment aid to FATA and Pakistandevelopment aid to FATA and Pakistan

to fight terrorism.to fight terrorism.

Economic development policy is a weak and

potentially counterproductive channel forundermining terrorism, both in FATA and in general.



Key points of our argumentKey points of our argument

Links between low levels of development and

terrorism are weak.

Aid money is unlikely to deliver growth.

Aid money may fuel terrorist activity and regional

violence.

Aid money is unlikely to help the immediate military

campaign by changing 'hearts and minds'.



ContextContext



StructureStructure

. Economic development and terrorism. Economic development and terrorism

. Aid and economic development. Aid and economic development

. The dark side of aid. The dark side of aid

. Aid winning hearts and minds. Aid winning hearts and minds



Economic development and TerrorismEconomic development and Terrorism

I fully believe that the root cause of terrorism does

come from situations where there is poverty, wherethere is ignorance, where people see no hope in their

lives

- Colin Powell, U.S. Department of State 2002 -



eports of Taliban providing higher wages and attracting recruits.

Message of a better life with the Taliban.

Argument: Poor people are more likely toArgument: Poor people are more likely tobecome terrorists as they are more likely to gainbecome terrorists as they are more likely to gain

"T heir message is there is a lot of injustice and we will give you land, we will look after you."

-BBC interviewing a retired senior official from North West Pakistan-



Poverty Rate for Palestinian Suicide ombers andPoverty Rate for Palestinian Suicide ombers andPalestinian Population of Comparable AgePalestinian Population of Comparable Age

Source: Krueger and Malecková, Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connection? , 2003

The only relevant cross-country study done so far doesnvt find a role for poverty to explain countries of origin of terrorists.

Micro-evidence is even clearer:

Reply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorReply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorcountries or poor backgrounds (evidence)countries or poor backgrounds (evidence)



Especially the leading forces come from wealthy backgrounds.

Reply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorReply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorcountries or poor backgrounds (evidence)countries or poor backgrounds (evidence)

Osama Bin Laden Ayman al Zawahiri

(Al-Q aedas deputy)



Argument: The poor are more ignorant and thusArgument: The poor are more ignorant and thusmore likely to be convinced by terroristmore likely to be convinced by terrorist

propagandapropaganda



Reply: Terrorists are better educatedReply: Terrorists are better educated

Educational Distribution for Palestinian Suicide ombersEducational Distribution for Palestinian Suicide ombersand Palestinian Population of Comparable Ageand Palestinian Population of Comparable Age

Source: Krueger and Malecková, Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connection? , 2003



Source: PSPCR opinion poll from West Bank and Gaza Strip, December 2001

Reply: People who support terrorism areReply: People who support terrorism aregenerally better educatedgenerally better educated



Argument: Panel data tells us that as countries getArgument: Panel data tells us that as countries getricher they export fewer terroristsricher they export fewer terrorists

Pinar Derin-Güre, Does Terrorism have economic roots? (unpublished paper), 2009



Results are likely to be upward biased due to reverse causality between terrorism and GDP.

The most favorable regression results imply

spendings of US billions per year, in order to decrease annual international terrorist attacks from Pakistan by 1.

Reply: There would have to be a large increase inReply: There would have to be a large increase inDP to make a noticeable impact on terrorismDP to make a noticeable impact on terrorism



Narratives of the rise of Islamic terrorism point to inequality and poverty as the root of attraction to radical ideologies.

Argument: Underdevelopment causes theArgument: Underdevelopment causes thedissatisfaction that leadsdissatisfaction that leadsto terrorismto terrorism

MiddleEast

DP/capita Relative to US,DP/capita Relative to US, --



Reply: It is difficult to align this story with theReply: It is difficult to align this story with thefactsfacts

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, International Financial Statistics of the IMF

A erage annual growth in G P per capita

. . .

.

6.

.

..

1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-200 0 200 1-201 0

USA

pt



StructureStructure







UNLIKELY:

Both the history of aid and the particular conditions of the FATA region make it UNLIKELY that aid can create growth.

Can aid produce growth in FATA?Can aid produce growth in FATA?



History of aid literatureHistory of aid literature

Economic research on aid and growth:

Still no clear results after 40 years.

³Aid is probably not a fundamentally decisive factor for development, not as important

as, say, domestic savings, inequality, or governance.´

-Roodman (2007)-



Conditions in FATA against aid deliveryConditions in FATA against aid delivery

33% under total control of

terrorists, 40% heavily influenced

by them.

Projects Taliban do not like can not

be done.

Taliban has stepped up violence against aid workers and demands them to leave the whole of Pakistan.

Chief of party assassinated.

Over 500 schools in the region destroyed.

Difficulties of aid policies apparent from recent audits.



Can aid produce growth in FATA?Can aid produce growth in FATA?

Economic research suggests that the aid has at best a weak impact on growth.

Conditions of FATA make aid deliveries difficult if not impossible.

Development aid is unlikely to have an impact ongrowth in FAT A



StructureStructure







Aid may be contributing to terrorismAid may be contributing to terrorism

Aid provides incentives for perpetuation of the

problem

Aid may fuel tribal conflict

Taliban requires security

fees for letting aid deliveries pass



Aid to undermine terrorism?Aid to undermine terrorism?

Feeble link between aid and growth + aid might be counter-productive

Development aid is a poor tool for fighting terror



StructureStructure







Aid is unlikely to help the militaryAid is unlikely to help the militaryeffort through winning hearts andeffort through winning hearts and

mindsminds

y USA may be able to produce short term effects

flood response shows that opinions deteriorate quickly.

y Security is key to getting the

population to work with you (e.g. Malaya). USA cannot provide this in much of FATA.




mindsminds

y Bombing citizens and expecting people to like you if them material goods is ridiculous (lesson from Vietnam War).

Opini n F r id n n h

S ili r dr n ri

¡

¢

£ ¢

¤

¡

¢

¥ ¢

¡ ¡

¢

¡

¦ ¢

§ efuse

Don ̈ t kno©

Strongly

oppose

Some©

ha t

oppose

Some©

ha t

support

Strongly

support

Source: Survey by the New America Foundation on

FATA - 2010




mindsminds

y American aid is often seen

as a way of conquering Islam. People view USA as biggest threat to security.

Op n n A A s d nts n th

d W n

on't know

To defeat

terrorists i n

the world

To defeat Al

Qaeda an d i ts

all ies

To ensure

American

domination

To weaken

an d divide theIs lam ic world

Source: Survey by the New America Foundation on

FATA - 2010



ConclusionConclusion

Weak links between underdevelopment and poverty

Little evidence that aid will create development in FATA and may fuel terrorism.

USAID should stop allocating aid to FATA and

Pakistan in order to fight terrorism.

terrorism and aid

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