th morning matters 20130531€¦ · consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the...

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See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA TM Platform 31-May-2013 Morning Matters WHAT’S INSIDE On The Platter Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB; FV THB112.00 – Buy) Company Update: Healthy Future Ahead Apart from easing the current congestion at its existing facilities, we believe BH’s ongoing capacity expansion strategy would be a catalyst for its long term growth. We maintain our Buy call on BH with an unchanged TP of THB112, based on 34x FY13 EPS. Despite its decent growth prospect, BH has been underperforming its peers since 3Q12. As such, we think the stock as a good laggard play for the sector. Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB; FV THB4.60 – Neutral) Company Update: Unexciting Near Term Outlook After attending its analyst briefing yesterday, HEMRAJ remains our least favored industrial estate stock, given its: i) unexciting land sales target, ii) problems at 35%-owned Gheco-One, and iii) lack of a plan to unlock asset value. Our THB4.60 TP is based on a SOP valuation which excludes long- term projects like its 250-rai integrated resort on Lan Island off the Pattaya coast and seven 25%-owned 125MW power plants that will be operational in 2015-2017. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS CP Group and Brazil-based JBS SA for the US Smithfield Foods Pay TV set to grow amid competition 7 banks fund CP All's takeover of Siam Makro Govt to trim GDP forecast Egco speeds up plan for southern power Bangchak upbeat about Q2 ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS Philippines: Defies Asia slowdown with best growth since 2010 Japan: Consumer prices slide in challenge to Abe revival campaign Japan: Output exceeds estimates EU: Euro-area economic confidence climbs amid recession EU: Spain recession eases as consumers offset faltering exports US: Jobless claims climb as holiday hampers count US: Economy grew at 2.4% Rate, less than first estimated SET Intra-Day Graph Source: Bloomberg Key Market Indices (30 May 2013) Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1581.32 -20.29 -1.3% 13.6% SET50 1044.40 -14.19 -1.3% 10.5% SET100 2332.33 -31.87 -1.3% 12.2% Dow Jones 15324.53 21.73 0.1% 16.9% S&P500 1654.41 6.05 0.4% 16.0% Nasdaq 3491.30 23.78 0.7% 15.6% FTSE 6656.99 29.82 0.4% 12.9% FSSTI 3336.01 -31.46 -0.9% 5.3% Hang Seng 22484.31 -70.62 -0.3% -0.8% Nikkei 13817.12 -111.92 -0.8% 33.1% KLCI 1774.92 -8.55 -0.5% 5.1% SHANGHAI SE 2317.75 -6.27 -0.3% 2.1% JCI 5129.65 -71.04 -1.4% 18.8% SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F PE (x) 14.5 18.1 14.5 P/BV(x) 1.9 2.5 2.4 Yield(%) 4.0 2.7 3.2 Key Statistics SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Institution 4,612.08 2,936.69 1,675.38 Proprietary 8,621.46 9,213.47 -592.01 Foreign 9,864.29 13,699.78 -3,835.50 Retail 34,612.74 31,860.61 2,752.13 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 5,185.55 43,434.40 Proprietary -1,818.31 -3,292.25 Foreign -5,498.36 -21,443.26 Retail -2,131.13 -18,698.89 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 9,973 9,146 827 1,430 7,570 Foreign 4,724 5,867 -1,143 -5,895 -13,051 Local 19,200 18,884 316 4,465 5,481

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Page 1: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform

31-May-2013

Morning Matters

WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB; FV THB112.00 – Buy) Comp any Update: Healthy Future Ahead Apart from easing the current congestion at its existing facilities, we believe BH’s ongoing capacity expansion strategy would be a catalyst for its long term growth. We maintain our Buy call on BH with an unchanged TP of THB112, based on 34x FY13 EPS. Despite its decent growth prospect, BH has been underperforming its peers since 3Q12. As such, we think the stock as a good laggard play for the sector.

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB; FV THB4.60 – Neutral) Company Update: Unexciting Near Term Outlook After attending its analyst briefing yesterday, HEMRAJ remains our least favored industrial estate stock, given its: i) unexciting land sales target, ii) problems at 35%-owned Gheco-One, and iii) lack of a plan to unlock asset value. Our THB4.60 TP is based on a SOP valuation which excludes long-term projects like its 250-rai integrated resort on Lan Island off the Pattaya coast and seven 25%-owned 125MW power plants that will be operational in 2015-2017.

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

♦ CP Group and Brazil-based JBS SA for the US Smithfield Foods

♦ Pay TV set to grow amid competition

♦ 7 banks fund CP All's takeover of Siam Makro

♦ Govt to trim GDP forecast

♦ Egco speeds up plan for southern power

♦ Bangchak upbeat about Q2 ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

♦ Philippines: Defies Asia slowdown with best growth since 2010

♦ Japan: Consumer prices slide in challenge to Abe revival campaign

♦ Japan: Output exceeds estimates

♦ EU: Euro-area economic confidence climbs amid recession

♦ EU: Spain recession eases as consumers offset faltering exports

♦ US: Jobless claims climb as holiday hampers count

♦ US: Economy grew at 2.4% Rate, less than first estimated

SET Intra -Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (30 May 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1581.32 -20.29 -1.3% 13.6%

SET50 1044.40 -14.19 -1.3% 10.5%

SET100 2332.33 -31.87 -1.3% 12.2%

Dow Jones 15324.53 21.73 0.1% 16.9%

S&P500 1654.41 6.05 0.4% 16.0%

Nasdaq 3491.30 23.78 0.7% 15.6%

FTSE 6656.99 29.82 0.4% 12.9%

FSSTI 3336.01 -31.46 -0.9% 5.3%

Hang Seng 22484.31 -70.62 -0.3% -0.8%

Nikkei 13817.12 -111.92 -0.8% 33.1%

KLCI 1774.92 -8.55 -0.5% 5.1%

SHANGHAI SE 2317.75 -6.27 -0.3% 2.1%

JCI 5129.65 -71.04 -1.4% 18.8%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 14.5 18.1 14.5

P/BV(x) 1.9 2.5 2.4

Yield(%) 4.0 2.7 3.2

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Institution 4,612.08 2,936.69 1,675.38 Proprietary 8,621.46 9,213.47 -592.01 Foreign 9,864.29 13,699.78 -3,835.50 Retail 34,612.74 31,860.61 2,752.13 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 5,185.55 43,434.40 Proprietary -1,818.31 -3,292.25 Foreign -5,498.36 -21,443.26 Retail -2,131.13 -18,698.89 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 9,973 9,146 827 1,430 7,570 Foreign 4,724 5,867 -1,143 -5,895 -13,051

Local 19,200 18,884 316 4,465 5,481

Page 2: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights CP Group and Brazil -based JBS SA for the US Smithfield Foods Charoen Pokphand Foods and Brazil-based JBS SA were preparing bids for US company Smithfield Foods before it agreed to a US$4.72-billion (Bt142 billion) takeover by China's Shuanghui International Holdings, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. According to the report by Bloomberg, under the terms of its agreement with Shuanghui, Smithfield has 30 days to continue talks with CPF and JBS, a food-processing company based in Sao Paulo, said one of the sources. While Smithfield, a meat producer based in the US state of Virginia, cannot actively seek better offers, it can respond to unsolicited bids that are superior to Shuanghui's, that source said. The deal values Smithfield at about $7.1 billion including debt, making it the largest for a meat producer and the biggest Chinese takeover of a US company, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (The Nation) Pay TV set to grow amid competition It is undeniable that pay-TV business will witness fierce competition in coming years, but leading operators and content providers believe that this industry is continuing to grow with more diversity in terms of content, operators, delivery methods and packages. Sinthu Peatrarut, managing director for media client leadership at Nielsen (Thailand), said pay-TV business was expected to grow 26.6 % to Bt12.21bn from Bt9.65bn last year. Note that satellite and cable TV accounted for 13 per cent of total advertising spending, while their penetration had reached more than 65 per cent of households. Once the 48 digital terrestrial TV channels are put in place, this would be a game changer, as people would have many choices on top of the more than 500 satellite and cable channels and six free-TV channels. (The Nation) 7 banks fund CP All's takeover of Siam Makro Bangkok Bank and Krungthai Bank (KTB), the country's largest and second-largest banks, will join Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) in a US$6-billion (Bt180 billion) bridge loan to back CP All's acquisition of cash-and-carry retailer Siam Makro. Under the sale-and-purchase agreement with SHV Nederland BV - the major shareholder in Siam Makro - a condition precedent is that CP All will pay about Bt121.536 billion to SHV. The remainder of the payment will be made after all shareholders of Makro accept the tender offer for 85.57 million shares at a price of Bt787 per share, or about Bt67.34 billion. (The Nation) Govt to trim GDP forecast

The Finance Ministry plans to revise down its economic growth forecast for 2013 next month, an indication of a less-than rosy scenario for the Thai economy in the second half of this year. In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3 per cent, against a consensus of 6 per cent. The FPO's current forecast for the full year is 5.3 per cent, against 5.1 per cent by the Bank of Thailand. The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) last week revised down its full-year forecast to 4.2-5.2 per cent, from 4.5-5.5 per cent. (The Nation) Egco speeds up plan for southern power Thailand's largest private power producer, Electricity Generating Plc (EGCO), has accelerated its plan to build a new power plant in Khanom, Nakhon Si Thammarat, by two years to ease the supply shortage. The previous plan was to build the 7.5-billion-baht facility once the concession of its old power generator there expires in 2016, but the recent outage in southern provinces spurred the move, said president Sahust Pratuknukul. The Khanom plant, Thailand's first independent power project (IPP), has been operating for 17 years under a 20-year concession granted by the Energy Ministry. Once the new facility starts operation, the old facility will be shut down permanently. Egco was awarded a renewal concession of 25 years last year. The old power generators have a capacity of 824 megawatts, while the new one will have a capacity of 900 MW. Once the power purchasing contract by the Provincial Electricity Generating Authority is finished, construction can start immediately, so it will be ready by June 2016. (Bangkok Post) Bangchak upbeat about Q2 Bangchak Petroleum Plc (BCP), a majority state-owned refiner, is more optimistic about business prospects in the second half of this year, encouraged by recovering oil demand at home and abroad. "The second half of the year is a season for global oil consumption, including in Thailand, boosted by economy growth," said senior executive vice-president Surachai Kositsareewong. "Global oil demand is still on the upward trend, mostly in Asia." According to an International Energy Agency forecast, global oil consumption will grow by 0.91% to 90.60 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 89.78 million in 2012. For the first quarter of 2013, BCP's average crude run capacity was 99,950 bpd, slightly down from 100,990 bpd in the same period last year. (Bangkok Post)

Page 3: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 3

Economic Highlights

Philippines: Defies Asia slowdown with best growth s ince 2010 Philippine growth unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years, defying a regional slowdown as President Benigno Aquino boosted investment and state spending. The peso reversed its decline. GDP rose 7.8% in the three months through March from a year earlier, compared with a revised 7.1% gain in the previous quarter, the National Statistical Coordination Board said yesterday. The peso rebounded from an 11-month low after the data showed Philippine resilience to a cooling in Asian economies that prompted central banks in India, Vietnam and Thailand to cut interest rates this month. (Bloomberg) Japan: Consumer prices slide in challenge to Abe re vival campaign Japan’s consumer prices dropped for a sixth straight month in April, highlighting the challenge for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in sustaining confidence in an economic revival. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said. The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the time being,” partly because of higher energy and durable goods costs in the past, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda chases 2% inflation. (Bloomberg) Japan: Output exceeds estimates Japan’s industrial production rose a more-than-estimated 1.7% in April, exceeding the highest estimate, helping Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic revival campaign. The pace quickened from the previous month, when output gained 0.9%, the Trade Ministry said today. Stocks rebounded today after volatility that has highlighted the importance of Abe winning public and investor confidence in the “third arrow” of Abenomics, a growth strategy to accompany monetary and fiscal stimulus. (Bloomberg) EU: Euro-area economic confidence climbs amid recessi on Economic confidence in the euro area increased in May, adding to signs the region is beginning to emerge from the longest recession in the single-currency era. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to 89.4 from 88.6 in April, the European Commission in Brussels said. The 17-nation economy’s contraction has left the European Central Bank to try to mitigate the damage by cutting interest rates and exploring unconventional ways of channeling money to needy companies, especially in the south. The ECB this month cut its benchmark rate to a record low of 0.5%. (Bloomberg) EU: Spain recession eases as consumers offset falteri ng exports Spain’s recession eased in the first quarter as domestic demand stabilized while exports, which the government says will drive the recovery of the euro-area’s fourth-largest economy, fell at the fastest pace in a year. Gross domestic product fell 0.5% from the fourth quarter, in line with a first estimate on 30 April, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said today. Output dropped 0.8% in the final three months of last year, the sharpest decline since 2009. (Bloomberg) US: Jobless claims climb as holiday hampers count More Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance payments last week as holiday closures prevented five states from completing a full count. Applications for jobless benefits increased 10,000 to 354,000 in the week ended May 25, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists called for 340,000 claims, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Two states, Virginia and Wyoming, provided their own estimates last week, and the Labor Department issued projections for Hawaii, Minnesota and Oregon, a government spokesman said. (Bloomberg) US: Economy grew at 2.4% Rate, less than first estima ted The US economy expanded less than previously estimated in the 1Q as slower inventory building and cutbacks in government spending overshadowed the biggest gain in consumer purchases since the end of 2010. GDP rose at a 2.4% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Resilient consumer spending, further housing market progress and job gains will help the expansion strengthen in the second half of the year as the fallout from federal budget cuts dissipates. (Bloomberg)

Page 4: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 4

Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f

THAI Buy 31.75 42.60 34.2 15.0 2.5

Underperform

Current Target Upside/

Recc. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013f 2013f

PTTGC Sell 73.50 82.10 11.7 9.8 3.6

TOP Sell 63.75 69.10 8.4 10.4 3.8

SPALI Sell 20.60 15.50 -24.8 10.8 3.7

Page 5: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 5

Diary of Events 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May

US Data Arial 7pt. MY Data MY Results Second Chance Properties SIA Engineering OSIM International

US Data MY Data MY Results

US Data MBA Mortage Applications (May 4) MY Data Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A (May 9) Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B (May 9) Automobile COE Open Bid Cat C (May 9) MY Results Singapore Airlines Ltd ASL Marine Holdings Ellipsiz Ltd Sembcorp Marine United Overseas Bank

US Data Initial Jobless Claims (May 5) Continuing Claims (Apr 28) MY Data MY Results Wilmar International City Developments Hiap Hoe Singapore Telecommunications Vicom Ltd

US Data MY Data MY Results Sembcorp Industries Mewah International

14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May 18-May US Data MY Data MY Results SATS Ltd ComfortDelgro Corp

US Data MY Data Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (Mar) Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) Retail Sales (MoM) sa (Mar) MY Results Fragrance Group Global Premium Hotels First Resources Ltd Armstrong Industrial Olam International

US Data MBA Mortage Applications (May 11) MY Data MY Results

US Data Initial Jobless Claims (May 12) Continuing Claims (May 5) MY Data MY Results

US Data MY Data MY Results Tiger Airways

21-May 22-May 23-May 24-May 25-May US Data MY Data MY Results

US Data Existing Home Sales (Apr) Existing Home Sales MoM (Apr) MY Data MY Results Avago Technologies Ltd

US Data MBA Mortage Applications (May 18) New Home Sales (Apr) New Home Sales MoM (Apr) MY Data Automobile COR Open Bid Cat A (May 23) Automobile COR Open Bid Cat B (May 23) Automobile COR Open Bid Cat C (May 23) MY Results

US Data Initial Jobless Claims (May 12) Continuing Claims (May 5) MY Data Initial Jobless Claims (May 19) Continuing Claims (May12) MY Results Global Logistics Properties Ltd

US Data MY Data MY Results

Page 6: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

30 29 28 27 23 30 29 28 27 23

1 PTTGC 275.7 70.8 18.0 37.9 -59.4 KBANK -636.2 -76.9 -1,162.2 -365.9 50.5 INTUCH 9,962.8 BBL -990.8 INTUCH 35,220.4 SCC -6,534.4

2 TRUE 181.8 38.0 105.3 46.8 13.2 BBL -384.8 -322.9 21.3 -182.9 -243.6 PTT 2,961.6 SCC -851.8 DTAC 10,159.9 BANPU -3,167.5

3 MINT 168.0 26.2 31.6 31.5 -36.2 ADVANC -158.2 -167.7 126.3 -82.5 -180.5 PTTGC 2,229.2 KTB -663.0 ADVANC 8,446.9 LH -2,681.5

4 PTTEP 152.4 -120.6 52.4 -64.3 -101.7 SCB -153.2 -147.7 -16.1 -87.0 -630.3 CPN 2,170.4 CK -546.7 PTTEP 8,373.1 SIRI -1,500.8

5 THAI 149.4 63.3 16.2 59.2 64.2 SIRI -84.4 6.9 13.6 -60.1 -14.5 BAY 2,038.6 ADVANC -546.7 PTT 8,294.4 DEMCO -779.8

6 HMPRO 134.6 40.8 20.4 -3.1 0.1 SCC -78.4 153.7 -24.9 62.8 -93.1 PTTEP 1,987.1 BANPU -383.0 PTTGC 8,107.9 CK -682.1

7 INTUCH 113.9 270.4 282.6 127.3 -206.0 DTAC -72.9 5.9 101.7 -68.9 -12.9 CPALL 1,552.6 SPCG -349.3 BAY 8,014.7 TRUE -525.8

8 BTS 76.8 303.8 10.2 82.8 10.1 TICON -53.2 -25.7 -5.9 3.4 1.6 MAKRO 1,254.4 TRUE -304.5 KBANK 4,863.5 UV -500.2

9 BIGC 26.9 39.6 2.6 27.4 72.9 LH -41.2 77.7 190.1 11.6 -26.3 THAI 1,175.6 SCB -248.2 TMB 3,900.5 ASP -370.6

10 RATCH 24.4 15.3 16.9 -18.1 20.8 BJC -37.1 -29.5 -5.9 -6.3 -28.6 KBANK 924.7 BJC -215.3 TOP 3,473.7 RML -343.2

11 SPALI 21.7 20.3 -15.1 34.8 52.9 BAY -36.2 -68.9 -115.5 -26.4 280.8 THCOM 815.7 NOBLE -165.5 CPALL 3,209.5 HMPRO -295.0

12 ITD 19.3 4.1 1.3 18.3 5.6 TUF -35.8 -31.6 13.8 51.6 45.1 MINT 758.2 MALEE -137.1 BIGC 3,043.2 MINT-W4 -238.0

13 TMB 18.3 -30.7 -9.3 0.7 -21.8 CPALL -34.8 -24.4 45.8 -25.1 -25.5 BTS 700.1 TCAP -129.1 MAKRO 2,983.7 TRC -197.4

14 STPI 17.8 19.4 3.8 0.0 19.9 MALEE -22.2 -51.1 -8.3 -23.5 -14.3 BEC 691.3 SVI -122.9 TCAP 2,841.1 STPI -196.1

15 CPN 16.3 -12.0 -5.7 -32.1 64.4 TISCO -21.7 -20.5 42.5 23.1 1.2 TMB 595.2 MCOT -105.2 BBL 2,836.0 IRPC -195.1

16 THCOM 15.9 28.5 3.0 0.8 12.0 SPCG -19.2 -26.6 -20.0 -28.5 -20.8 TOP 555.6 CFRESH -101.8 CPF 2,626.3 LRH -193.6

17 MBK 15.3 0.9 -0.2 -14.6 4.0 QH -17.9 0.4 -18.6 -8.8 -3.2 TUF 486.1 MFEC -93.6 THAI 2,207.0 AMATA -164.9

18 MFEC 15.2 22.4 0.2 1.7 -1.5 AAV -16.2 -47.9 -29.3 8.6 -165.2 AOT 482.9 ROBINS -84.9 CPN 2,155.7 NOBLE -160.0

19 GLOW 14.3 33.8 51.8 1.9 -27.0 THANI -14.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 BIGC 421.8 UV -77.1 SPALI 2,073.0 GUNKUL -150.8

20 GFPT 13.8 3.7 6.9 28.4 8.6 ASP -14.0 1.4 -4.2 2.2 3.1 AAV 354.1 TWFP -73.7 TUF 2,071.4 TWFP -128.7

% % of % of

Turn. paidup paidup

1 GJS 4.33 1 TISCO-P 66.16 65.86

2 TRUE 3.81 2 TISCO-T1 31.06 65.86

3 QH 4.00 3 BBL 30.97 29.99

4 SIRI 10.96 4 KBANK 29.56 28.50

5 TMB 12.31 5 SPALI 22.25 17.94

6 HMPRO 10.35 6 GOLD-W1 21.50 14.87

7 GSTEL 4.14 7 LPN 21.35 21.73

8 BTS 9.49 8 E-W1 19.76 22.27

9 LH 26.90 9 THRE 18.98 15.50

10 BLAND 1.94 10 INTUCH 18.49 5.41

11 MINT 23.85 11 SPCG-W1 17.87 13.31

12 PTTGC 37.51 12 LH 17.80 21.18

13 KBANK 29.22 13 TWFP 16.56 24.77

14 JAS 3.77 14 DTAC 15.63 13.33

15 IRPC 11.21 15 TCAP 15.44 12.60

16 KTB 9.57 16 BAY 15.26 13.89

17 INTUCH 14.11 17 AP 14.83 12.92

18 N-PARK 0.55 18 TISCO 14.58 13.69

19 PRIN 39.15 19 THIP 14.50 12.64

20 THAI 19.62 20 LALIN 14.00 13.53

Source : SET.OR.TH

31 May 2013

May 13 May 13

Total Volume Shares

(Last)

NVDR Shrs. Paid up CapitalNVDR Shrs.

30-May-13 2-Jan-13

Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell

2 Jan- 30 May 131-30 May 13

37,075,711

45,809,200 6,001,900 22,400 22,300 51,811,100 39,807,300

22,325,800

33,858

9,946,500 14,360,008 24,306,508

NetBuy Sell Total

1,434,800 22,079,300 23,514,100

22,300 16,625,300

591,225,972 572,486,791

11,516,678 5,700,500 28,026,300

2,393,260,193

-4,413,508

1,716,553,249

1,908,842,894

707,337,619

307,949,569 381,906,392

-20,644,500 682,155,834

418,421,323

13,124,000 5,972,100

11,728,900 -3,499,700

4,932,600 9,781,500 14,714,100 -4,848,900

4,114,600

19,096,100 7,151,900

14,387,300 9,117,300

15,823,171 8,071,829 89,952,203 74,970,598

7,614,300

11,752,300 2,635,000

11,947,500 3,875,671

1,475,698,768

347,000,000

315,050,331 320,609,239

68,580,642 77,281,246

3,512,494,860

3,206,420,305

666,605,603 544,461,149

592,714,714 173,363,101

37,278,800 279,999,581 50,032,700

1,784,428,539 2,123,251,472 10,025,921,523

8,000,000

727,878,228

6,074,143,747

424,001,779

1,011,300

843,803,210

2,859,920,138

3,000 5,773,800

5,739,500

3,500,000 2,280,500

5,214,100 525,400

5,770,800

5,780,500

111,592,900 825,000,000

6,620,400 1,232,600

106,159,714 99,645,251

1,159,700

115,502,500 4,688,700

5,767,800

1,219,500

367,964,647

197,328,009 161,065,653

927,010,517 609,025

1,277,816,397 -1,346,800

6,130,501

2,208,770

1,574,216 2,354,634 9,506,055

2,367,811,000 370,006,289 315,525,949

7,039,700 2,769,000 9,808,700 4,270,700

7,188,900 1,058,399 8,247,299

3,926,500 2,693,900

7,382,900

5,514,500

4,101,600 3,281,300

7,230,4004,288,600

2,328,000 7,842,500

3,732,830

-3,186,500

3,848,100

2,941,800

3,239,075 7,087,175

820,300

8,150,3705,941,600

Most Active Volume (shares) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)

NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date

Most Active Values (Btmn)

THAI NVDR : Top Ranking

Page 7: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM Platform 1

Company Update , 31 May 2013

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) Buy (Maintained)

Consumer Non -cyclical - Healthcare Services Target Price: THB112Market Cap: US D2,025m Price : THB84.0

Healthy Future Ahead Macro ��

Risks ��

Growth ��

Value ��

85

91

96

102

108

113

119

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Bamrungrad Hospital (BH TB)

Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

123456789

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Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 69.2m/2.35m

Cons. Upside (%) 9.9

Upside (%) 33.3

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 59.8 - 91.8

Free float (%) 41

Shareholders (%)

Bangkok Dusit Medical (BGH) 23.9

Bangkok Insurance 14.7

Thailand Research Team +66 (0) 2862 9999 ext 2030

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-1 3F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 10,056 11,306 14,042 13,711 15,757

Reported net profit (THBm) 1,188 1,588 2,665 2,349 2,688

Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,188 1,588 2,038 2,349 2,688

Recurring net profit growth (%) na 33.7 28.4 15.3 14.4

Core EPS (THB) 1.63 2.18 2.80 3.23 3.69

DPS (THB) 0.85 1.09 1.83 1.61 1.85

Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.3 2.2 1.9 2.2

Core P/E (x) 51.5 38.5 30.0 26.0 22.8

Return on average equity (%) 39.2 24.8 35.6 28.4 30.4

P/B (x) 10.1 9.1 7.4 7.4 6.5

P/CF (x) 26.9 32.6 20.0 23.7 21.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 20.8 9.1 17.0 15.5 13.6

Net debt to equity (%) 14.9 54.9 net cash net cash net cash

Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.5 2.2

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Apart from easing the current congestion at its existing facilities, we believe BH’s ongoing capacity expansion strategy wo uld be a catalyst for its long term growth. We maintain our Buy call on BH with an unchanged TP of THB112, based on 34x FY13 EPS. Despite i ts decent growth prospect, BH has been underperforming its pe ers since 3Q12. As such, we think the stock as a good laggard play for the sector.

♦ 30% capacity boost for outpatient clinics. The opening of an

additional five floors at its outpatient building last week has boosted BH’s outpatient capacity by 30%. BH is also in the midst of adding 20 inpatient beds, which are expected be ready by 4Q13, while construction work for another 38 beds is set to kick off by early-2014. The hospital is also gradually adding 44 beds to the existing 55 beds at its intensive care unit (ICU). BH’s overall inpatient beds capacity will be enlarged by 20% with these capacity expansions, easing its current capacity constraint. BH had been turning away some patients, as part of its capacity management, to ensure access for patients requiring more acute treatments and longer stay. This has resulted in admissions declining slightly in 1Q13. With strong demand from both local and international patients, we believe BH should not face any difficulty in filling up the additional capacity.

♦ Tapping further into Myanmar market . Over the last few years, BH has seen tremendous growth in patients from Myanmar, who accounted for about 6% of its 1Q13 revenue. Most of these Myanmarese patients visit BH for health screening, with some of them subsequently referred for admission. The high volume of Myanmarese going for health screening has resulted in congestion at its health screening clinics. As such, BH is mulling the idea of setting up a screening center in Myanmar to act as a referral center for Myanmarese patients. We believe this center will not only ease the aforementioned congestion, it will also enhance the revenue intensity from Myanmarese patients.

♦ Maintain Buy . We maintain our Buy call on BH, with an unchanged TP of THB112. We believe BH is a good laggard play for the sector, further supported by its long term growth prospect.

Page 8: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) 31 May 2013

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 2

Update on Soi 1 and new campus . To recap, other than expanding its existing campus, BH is also undertaking development on two new sites, namely in Soi 1 and Petchburi Road. Demolition works for the existing building on Soi 1 is ongoing and construction is expected to commence in 3Q13. The facilities at this site, which will also house a health screening center, will be an extension of its existing campus due to the close proximity (~90m) between the two sites. Meanwhile, the development plan for its Petchburi Road site, which has been marked to become a second campus that will house a hospital for women and children, has been finalized. As the demolition works for this project have been completed, construction is expected to start soon. BH has estimated an overall total capital investment of >THB10bn over the next five years. We believe funding for the capital investment should not be an issue given BH’s strong operating cash flow and solid balance sheet with a net cash position.

Figure 1: The estimated annual capital investment for BH

Source: BH

Figure 2: Construction progress at the Soi 1 and Pet chaburi sites

Source: BH

Page 9: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) 31 May 2013

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 3

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec -14F

Total turnover 10,056 11,306 14,042 13,711 15,757

Cost of sales (5,979) (6,682) (8,232) (7,795) (8,967)

Gross profit 4,077 4,624 5,810 5,916 6,789

Gen & admin expenses (1,537) (1,859) (2,305) (2,037) (2,346)

Selling expenses (124) 0 (200) (162) (186)

Other operating costs (619) (565) (591) (705) (821)

Operating profit 1,798 2,201 2,714 3,012 3,436

Operating EBITDA 2,394 2,848 3,423 3,781 4,321

Depreciation of fixed assets (596) (648) (709) (769) (886)

Operating EBIT 1,798 2,201 2,714 3,012 3,436

Net income from investments (35) 83 93 65 65

Interest income - - - 100 100

Interest expense (68) (189) (241) (241) (241)

Exceptional income - net - - 790 - -

Pre-tax profit 1,695 2,094 3,356 2,936 3,360

Taxation (507) (506) (690) (587) (672)

Minority interests - - (1) - -

Profit after tax & minorities 1,188 1,588 2,665 2,349 2,688

Reported net profit 1,188 1,588 2,665 2,349 2,688

Recurring net profit 1,188 1,588 2,038 2,349 2,688

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 1,798 2,201 2,714 3,012 3,436

Depreciation & amortisation 596 648 709 769 886

Change in working capital 278 (243) 98 (148) (55)

Other operating cash flow 133 84 (12) (313) (605)

Operating cash flow 2,805 2,690 3,508 3,320 3,661

Interest received - - - 100 100

Interest paid (69) (182) - (253) (253)

Tax paid (465) (634) (442) (587) (672)

Cash flow from operations 2,272 1,874 3,066 2,580 2,837

Other new investments (667) (1,071) (982) (1,200) (1,200)

Other investing cash flow 3 (2,874) (980) 110 110

Cash flow from investing activities (665) (3,945) (1,962) (1,090) (1,090)

Dividends paid (620) (693) (912) (1,175) (1,344)

Proceeds from issue of shares 5,500 (131) 201 - -

Increase in debt 100 3,425 - (500) (1,500)

Other financing cash flow 264 (133) (1,910) 127 1,422

Cash flow from financing activities 5,245 2,468 (2,621) (1,548) (1,422)

Cash at beginning of period - 627 1,261 6,034 5,909

Total cash generated 6,852 397 (1,517) (57) 325

Implied cash at end of period 6,852 1,025 (256) 5,977 6,233

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Page 10: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) 31 May 2013

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 4

Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec -14F

Total cash and equivalents 627 1,261 6,034 5,909 6,218

Inventories 218 266 234 297 342

Accounts receivable 946 1,126 1,335 1,295 1,492

Other current assets 63 52 67 87 87

Total current assets 1,855 2,704 7,670 7,587 8,138

Total investments 1,212 4,253 239 242 242

Tangible fixed assets 5,785 6,242 7,683 7,800 7,900

Intangible assets 282 256 236 290 290

Total other assets 18 17 34 439 1,198

Total non-current assets 7,297 10,768 8,192 8,771 9,630

Total assets 9,152 13,473 15,862 16,359 17,768

Short-term debt 100 - - 200 200

Accounts payable 556 603 800 715 823

Other current liabilities 997 903 1,460 1,788 1,867

Total current liabilities 1,652 1,506 2,260 2,703 2,891

Total long-term debt 1,430 4,955 4,960 5,000 5,000

Other liabilities - 278 376 400 420

Total non-current liabilities 1,430 5,233 5,337 5,400 5,420

Total liabilities 3,082 6,739 7,597 8,103 8,311

Share capital 728 728 728 728 728

Retained earnings reserve 4,528 5,115 6,578 6,637 7,080

Other reserves 811 887 957 887 1,645

Shareholders' equity 6,068 6,730 8,263 8,252 9,454

Minority interests - 2 - 2 2

Other equity 2 2 2 2 2

Total equity 6,069 6,734 8,265 8,256 9,458

Total liabilities & equity 9,152 13,473 15,862 16,359 17,768

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 0.0 12.4 24.2 (2.4) 14.9

Operating profit growth (%) 0.0 22.4 23.3 11.0 14.1

Net profit growth (%) 0.0 33.7 67.9 (11.9) 14.4

EPS growth (%) 0.0 33.7 67.9 (11.9) 14.4

Bv per share growth (%) 0.0 10.9 22.8 (0.1) 14.6

Operating margin (%) 17.9 19.5 19.3 22.0 21.8

Net profit margin (%) 11.8 14.0 19.0 17.1 17.1

Return on average assets (%) 26.0 14.0 18.2 14.6 15.8

Return on average equity (%) 39.2 24.8 35.6 28.4 30.4

Net debt to equity (%) 14.9 54.9 (13.0) (8.6) (10.8)

DPS 0.85 1.09 1.83 1.61 1.85

Recurrent cash flow per share 3.12 2.57 4.21 3.54 3.89

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Page 11: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) 31 May 2013

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 5

SWOT Analysis

• Strong brand name with global recognition

• Strong operating efficiency

• Strong exposure in the premium market segment

• Rising competition within the country as well as internationally

• Limited existing capacity

• Future and ongoing capacity expansion to cope with the rising demand

• Venturing into the lower tier market segment

• High dependency on medical tourism

• High concentration on the premium market segment

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P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Company Profile BH owns and operates Bumrungrad International Hospital, a premium hospital in Bangkok.

Page 12: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (BH TB) 31 May 2013

See import ant disclosures at the end of this report 6

Recommendation Chart

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Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB Estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-05-13 Buy 112 87

2013-03-08 Buy 112 91

2013-02-26 Buy 112 91

2012-11-09 Neutral 81 76

2012-08-14 Neutral 81 76

Source : RHB Estimates, Bloomberg

Page 13: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM

Platform 1

Company Update, 30 May 2013

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: THB4.60

Market Cap: USD1,306m Price: THB4.06

Unexciting Near Term Outlook

Macro

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Risks

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Growth

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Value

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Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB)

Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

20406080

100120140160180200

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Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 90.5m/3.11m

Cons. Upside (%) 15.0

Upside (%) 13.3

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 2.78 - 4.76

Free float (%) 56

Shareholders (%)

Penpunnee Horrungruang 11.0

Thai NVDR 9.9

Shariah compliant

Wanida Geisler 66 2862 9748

[email protected]

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 4,322 4,150 6,399 8,114 8,312

Recurring net profit (THBm) 1,280 550 2,294 2,873 3,459

Net profit growth (%) 145.3 (62.0) 327.5 25.2 20.4

Consensus EPS (THB) 0.32 0.36

EPS (THB) 0.15 0.06 0.24 0.30 0.36

DPS (THB) 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.15 0.18

Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 0.7 2.7 3.6 4.3

Return on average assets (%) 8.8 2.8 9.9 10.9 12.7

Return on average equity (%) 16.7 6.1 23.9 25.6 26.7

P/E (x) 27.9 73.4 17.2 13.7 11.4

P/B (x) 4.48 4.48 3.78 3.27 2.83

Net debt to equity (%) 48.7 51.7 82.0 65.7 59.2

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

After attending its analyst briefing yesterday, HEMRAJ remains our least favored industrial estate stock, given its: i) unexciting land sales target, ii) problems at 35%-owned Gheco-One, and iii) lack of a plan to unlock asset value. Our THB4.60 TP is based on a SOP valuation which excludes long-term projects like its 250-rai integrated resort on Lan Island off the Pattaya coast and seven 25%-owned 125MW power plants that will be operational in 2015-2017.

Unexciting 2013 land sales target of 1,800 rai (-22% y-o-y). After

achieving presales of 421 rai in 1Q13, Hemaraj Land & Development (HEMRAJ) raised in its full year land sales target from 1,600 rai to 1,800 rai. However, this is still 22% lower y-o-y and 12% below our estimate of 2,000 rai. Both its 6,800-rai landbank and land sales targets are much lower than Amata Corp’s (BUY, TP: THB35) 13,000-rai landbank and 3,000-rai land sales targets.

Land sales forecast reflect its selling price hike. HEMRAJ raised its

selling price by 20% last year and another 5% early this year. As a result, the selling price for its main estates, ESIE and H-ESIE, is now at THB2.5m/rai, up from THB2m/rai in 2011. Of its new land sales forecast of THB5bn this year, around THB3bn is already in hand as backlog. Its gross margin is likely to remain stable at 46%.

Double digit recurring income growth projected. Management is

upbeat on the growth of its utilities (water) income and rental income. The company expects the demand for water to expand by 17% p.a. over the next two years. It also plans to increase its factory rental space by 120k sq m, from 300k sq m currently, and warehouse space by 100k sq m, from 17k sq m currently. We estimate HEMRAJ’s service/rental income to surge by 33% in 2013 and 30% in 2014.

Gheco-One clouding near term outlook. So far, technical problems

have shaved off c.THB100m from Gheco-One’s monthly revenue. Moreover, the 660MW power plant will shut down for 45 days in 2Q13 for maintenance. It may also book an additional expense of THB625m to be paid to the Revenue Department for the capitalization of unrealized forex gains, which is prohibited in tax accounting. In view of all that, we expect HEMRAJ’s upcoming 2Q13 results to be lackluster.

Page 14: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) 30 May 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Figure 1: Land sales trend

Source: RHB Estimates

Figure 2: Recurring income (utilities and rental) trend

Source: RHB Estimates

Figure 3: Profitability trend

Source: RHB Estimates

Figure 4: Peer comparison

Earnings chg % ROE

P/B (x)

P/E (x)

Yield (%) Target

Reccomendation

2013F 2014F 2013F 2013F 2013F 2013F (THB) AMATA 31 30 22 3 12 3 35.0 Buy

HEMRAJ 25 20 26 3 14 4 4.6 Neutral

TICON 23 14 15 2 16 5 31.0 Buy

ROJNA 14 5 19 2 13 5 15.3 Buy

Source: RHB Estimates

Page 15: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) 30 May 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover 4,322 4,150 6,399 8,114 8,312

Cost of sales (2,703) (2,361) (3,456) (4,427) (4,572)

Gross profit 1,619 1,790 2,943 3,687 3,740

Other operating costs (552) (639) (809) (1,071) (1,140)

Operating profit 1,067 1,151 2,135 2,616 2,601

Operating EBITDA 1,248 1,341 2,401 2,896 2,894

Depreciation of fixed assets (181) (190) (267) (280) (294)

Operating EBIT 1,067 1,151 2,135 2,616 2,601

Net income from investments 422 (133) 711 830 1,400

Other recurring income 190 155 199 214 230

Interest expense (284) (397) (475) (461) (438)

Other non-recurring income 135 (17) - - -

Pre-tax profit 1,529 758 2,570 3,199 3,792

Taxation (46) (161) (190) (237) (239)

Minority interests (71) (60) (85) (90) (94)

Profit after tax & minorities 1,411 537 2,294 2,873 3,459

Reported net profit 1,411 537 2,294 2,873 3,459

Recurring net profit 1,280 550 2,294 2,873 3,459

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 1,067 1,151 2,135 2,616 2,601

Depreciation & amortisation 181 190 267 280 294

Change in working capital (706) 716 (963) 403 (825)

Other operating cash flow 2,243 231 702 1,846 3,004

Operating cash flow 2,785 2,288 2,140 5,145 5,073

Interest paid (284) (397) (475) (461) (438)

Tax paid (46) (161) (190) (237) (239)

Cash flow from operations 2,454 1,730 1,476 4,448 4,396

Capex 56 (789) (4,718) (1,166) (1,245)

Other investing cash flow (1,844) (225) (1,529) (1,330) (1,900)

Cash flow from investing activities (1,788) (1,014) (6,247) (2,496) (3,145)

Dividends paid (534) (534) (785) (1,257) (1,583)

Increase in debt 2,475 19 3,533 (500) (500)

Other financing cash flow - (0) - - -

Cash flow from financing activities 1,941 (515) 2,748 (1,757) (2,083)

Cash at beginning of period 909 3,517 3,718 1,694 1,889

Total cash generated 2,607 202 (2,024) 195 (832)

Implied cash at end of period 3,517 3,718 1,694 1,889 1,057

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Page 16: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) 30 May 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total cash and equivalents 3,517 3,718 1,694 1,889 1,057

Accounts receivable 191 114 141 127 114

Other current assets 7,347 7,982 11,014 9,776 10,429

Total current assets 11,055 11,814 12,849 11,792 11,600

Total investments 4,391 4,748 5,567 6,067 6,567

Tangible fixed assets 2,595 3,194 7,646 8,532 9,483

Total other assets 529 254 246 246 246

Total non-current assets 7,514 8,196 13,458 14,844 16,296

Total assets 18,569 20,010 26,308 26,637 27,895

Short-term debt 750 308 1,542 1,542 1,542

Accounts payable 213 450 1,397 1,467 1,540

Other current liabilities 941 1,630 2,556 2,162 1,903

Total current liabilities 1,905 2,389 5,495 5,170 4,985

Total long-term debt 7,231 8,134 9,199 8,699 8,199

Other liabilities 267 358 574 50 50

Total non-current liabilities 7,498 8,492 9,774 8,749 8,249

Total liabilities 9,402 10,881 15,268 13,920 13,234

Share capital 3,882 3,882 3,882 3,882 3,882

Retained earnings reserve 4,480 4,482 6,096 7,712 9,588

Other reserves 439 439 439 439 439

Shareholders' equity 8,801 8,803 10,417 12,033 13,909

Minority interests 366 326 622 684 752

Total equity 9,167 9,129 11,039 12,717 14,661

Total liabilities & equity 18,569 20,010 26,307 26,637 27,895

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 110.9 (4.0) 54.2 26.8 2.4

Operating profit growth (%) 141.2 7.8 85.5 22.6 (0.6)

Net profit growth (%) 145.3 (62.0) 327.5 25.2 20.4

EPS growth (%) 141.2 (62.0) 327.5 25.2 20.4

Bv per share growth (%) 8.8 0.0 18.3 15.5 15.6

Operating margin (%) 24.7 27.7 33.4 32.2 31.3

Net profit margin (%) 32.6 12.9 35.8 35.4 41.6

Return on average assets (%) 8.8 2.8 9.9 10.9 12.7

Return on average equity (%) 16.7 6.1 23.9 25.6 26.7

Net debt to equity (%) 48.7 51.7 82.0 65.7 59.2

DPS 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.15 0.18

Recurrent cash flow per share 0.25 0.18 0.15 0.46 0.45

Source: Company data, RHB Estimates

Page 17: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) 30 May 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

SWOT Analysis

Thailand’s second largest industrial estate (IE) operator by sales

Well-diversified businesses in industrial estates, utilities and property development.

All seven estates are in non-flood zones: Rayong, Prachinburi and Saraburi

Vulnerable to external and internal factors

Integrated resort project on Larn Island Pattaya consumes time and resources

Healthy FDI in Thailand

Rapid rise of land prices in non-flood zones

Current landbank of 7,700 rai will last only three to four years

Contribution from 700MW Gheco-One remains unstable

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Company Profile Hemaraj Land & Development (HEMRAJ) is Thailand’s second largest industrial estate (IE) operator by sales. All seven of its estates are in non-flood zones: Rayong, Prachinburi and Saraburi. However, its combined landbank of 6,800 rai will last only three to four years. The Group has well-diversified businesses in industrial estates, utilities and property development.

Page 18: TH Morning Matters 20130531€¦ · Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.4% y-o-y, the statistics bureau said . The Bank of Japan expects price declines to continue for “the

Hemaraj Land & Dev (HEMRAJ TB) 30 May 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

Recommendation Chart

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3.3

0

4.6

0 Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB Estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-05-16 Neutral 4.60 4.08

2013-03-27 Neutral 4.60 4.30

2012-11-15 Buy 3.30 3.14

Source : RHB Estimates, Bloomberg

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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. Further, RHB, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this research report. RHB and its employees and/or agents do not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses, loss of profits or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report or further communication given in relation to this report, including where such losses, loss of profits or damages are alleged to have arisen due to the contents of such report or communication being perceived as defamatory in nature. The term “RHB” shall denote where applicable, the relevant entity distributing the report in the particular jurisdiction mentioned specifically herein below and shall refer to RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd, its holding company, affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies. All Rights Reserved. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior consent of RHB and RHB accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Malaysia This report is published and distributed in Malaysia by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (233327-M), Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre, Jalan Tun Razak, 50400 Kuala Lumpur, a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Investment Bank Berhad (RHBIB), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Singapore This report is published and distributed in Singapore by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd (Reg. No. 200808705N), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group) and OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 29 May 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd do not have proprietary positions in the securities covered in this report, except for: a) - As of 29 May 2013, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for: a) - Special Distribution by RHB Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd. Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited (“RHBSHK”) (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB”), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company.

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Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 29 May 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 29 May 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)

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