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Contributor Carlyle A. Thayer

Carlyle A. ThayerCarlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor, The

University of New South Wales at the Australian

Defence Force Academy in Canberra. Thayer is a

Southeast Asia regional specialist with special

expertise on Vietnam. He is the author of Southeast

Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperation (Canberra:

Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2012). He writes

a weekly column on Southeast Asian defense and

security affairs for the The Diplomat. He has held

senior appointments at the International Institute for

Strategic Studies in London; Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu;

School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Center for

International Affairs, Ohio University; Australian Command and Staff College; and the

Center for Defence and Strategic Studies at the Australian Defence College. Thayer was

educated at Brown, holds an M.A. in Southeast Asian Studies from Yale and a PhD in

International Relations from The Australian National University. He was in Hanoi

when the Chinese oil rig crisis off Vietnam first broke out in May 2014.

Links:

University of New South Wales, Canberra

Contributions by Carlyle A. Thayer

Blog 05.09.14

The China-Vietnam Standoff: How

Will It End?

DANIEL KLIMAN, ELY RATNER & MORE

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Page 1 of 1Carlyle A. Thayer | ChinaFile

13/05/2014https://www.chinafile.com/contributors/Carlyle-Thayer

The China-Vietnam Standoff: How Will It End? A ChinaFile Conversation Friday, May 9, 2014

Carlyle A. Thayer

There are three possible interpretations for China’s decision to deploy the giant HD-981 oil rig to Block 143 inside Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. These interpretations are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The first interpretation posits that the China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) decided to conduct commercial exploration activities in blocks it had put out to tender in response to Vietnam’s adoption of the Law on the Sea in mid-2012. As Susan Shirk notes CNOOC had already carried out seismic surveys and was likely following up. This interpretation is questionable given the size and composition of the fleet of 80 Chinese ships and vessels that accompanied the oil rig. As Shirk observes this was “certainly not business as usual.” Indeed, diplomats in Beijing report that CNOOC officials were ordered to deploy the rig despite their misgivings about the high daily costs and the low evaluation of Block 143 as a source of oil and gas reserves. The second interpretation argues that CNOOC’s actions were in response to the operations by U.S. oil giant ExxonMobile in nearby blocks. This interpretation too seems unlikely. ExxonMobile has been operating in Block 119 since 2011 despite initial Chinese protests. It is unclear how the operations of a Chinese oil rig in Block 143 would deter ExxonMobile from operating elsewhere. The third interpretation stresses the geo-political motivations behind China’s actions. The deployment of the CNOOC mega rig was a pre-planned response to President Barack Obama’s recent visit to East Asia. China was angered by Obama’s support for both Japan and the Philippines in their territorial disputes with Beijing. Therefore China manufactured the oil rig crisis to demonstrate to regional states that the United States was a “paper tiger” and there was a gap between Obama’s rhetoric and ability to act. The third interpretation has plausibility. China can make its point and then withdraw the oil rig once it has completed its mission in mid-August. But this interpretation begs the question why Vietnam was the focus for this crisis and why China acted on the eve of the summit meeting of the heads of government/state of the Association of

Southeast Asian Nations.