thayer regional security enviroment south east asia
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TheRegionalSecurity
EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer
June8,2011
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UnderstandthekeyfactorsshapingthestrategicenvironmentinSouthEastAsiaand
theimplicationsforsecurityintheregion,
includingtheSouthChinaSea,terrorismand
insurgency;sealinesofcommunication;and
majorpowerengagement.
UnderstandthechallengesfacingIndonesia.
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KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic
EnvironmentinSout EastAsia
Globalfinancialandeconomiccrisis
Chinasmilitarymodernisation
USrenewedengagement
Arms rocurement
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%ShareofGlobalEconomicOutput
25
30
20
15
2015
5
10
0
Korea
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National GDP in Trillion USD 1990 and 2015
18
20
14
16
10
12
1990
6
82015
0
2
USA Japan China
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KeyFactorsShapingtheStrategic
EnvironmentinSout EastAsia
Salience
of
maritime
domain
Transnationalissues
Everydaysecurityissues
Securit architecture
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a nan
Island
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SouthChinaSea
ChinaVietnam
Malaysia
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Major
Naval
Exercises2010
March
EarlyJulyLateJuly
November
YulinNaval
Base,Sanya
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BinhMinh02
Incident
ReedBank
Incident
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N nTr i i n l ri I
Terrorism
HumanSecurity
Piracy
Energysecurity
DrugTrafficking
Genderequality
Environmental Economicsecurity
everyday security issues
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ae a n ce sp nter groups, ocus on near enemy
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Terrorismdis ersednetworks
Religiousvigilante groups
Corruption
Stalledpoliticalreforms
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MajorPowerEngagement
USPACOMTheatre
Subregionalmultilateralism
FPDA
Engagement ReCAAP
Middle
powersHierarchical
operatingas
equals
. .
Leadership
ASEANled
multiExclusive
EastAsian
ASEANRegionalForum
ASEANPlusThree(China,
lateralismRegionalism
ADMMPlusJapan,SouthKorea)
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ASEANDefenceMinistersPlus8
JapanChina
South
Koreauss a
AustraliaIndia
Zealand
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ImplicationsforRegionalSecurity
APEC MinusCLM &
India
ARF Foreign
Ministers
ASEAN ChinaJa an SouthKorea
Plus8 Ministers
andUSA
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SoutheastAsia:Climatestress,
,
andchokepoints
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TheRegionalSecurity
EmeritusProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer
June8,2011