THE MARCH 2006 MID-SOUTH TORNADO OUTBREAK... WHY IT NEVER OCCURRED Dan Valle National Weather Service Memphis, TN Synoptic Overview Upper Air Loop Several Shortwaves +120kt Jet Broad Upper Trough Lifting Out Phasing of Polar/Subtro pical Jets Divergence over Mid- South Surface Features 18Z Sat 11th NAM Surface Features 00Z Sun 12th NAM Surface Features 06Z Sun 12th NAM Surface Features 12Z Sun 12th NAM Surface Features 18Z Sun 12th NAM Surface Features 00Z Mon 13th NAM Surface Features 06Z Mon 13th NAM 850mb Winds 00-12Z 12th NAM 850mb Winds 00-12Z 13th NAM NAM Sounding 21Z/11th MLCAPE = 3100 J/KG Lifted Index = -5.5 o C 0-3km SRH = 82 m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 46kts LCL Height = 3157ft NAM Sounding 00Z/12th MLCAPE = 2100 J/KG Lifted Index = -4.8 o C 0-3km SRH = 221m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 53kts LCL Height = 1927ft NAM Sounding 03Z/12th MLCAPE = 1500 J/KG Lifted Index = -4.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 362m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 50kts LCL Height = 1271ft NAM 0-1km EHI 00Z/12th ~ 1.5 m 2 /s 2 NAM 0-1km EHI 03Z/12th ~ 1.5 m 2 /s 2 NAM Sounding 00Z/13th MLCAPE = 2700 J/KG Lifted Index = -7.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 341m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 58kts LCL Height = 1845ft NAM Sounding 03Z/13th MLCAPE = 2700 J/KG Lifted Index = -7.0 o C 0-3km SRH = 414m 2 /s 2 0-6km Bulk Shear = 57kts LCL Height = 1291ft NAM 0-1km EHI 00Z/13th ~ 4.0 m 2 /s 2 NAM 0-1km EHI 03Z/13th ~ 4.5 m 2 /s 2 SPCs Forecast How Bad Was It? Storm Reports for March 11th Storm Reports for March 12th Storm Reports for March 13th What went wrong? 00Z 12th NAMObserved (LZK) Surface Features 00Z/12 th and 06Z/12 th GFS Radar Echos 00Z/12 th and 06Z/12 th GFS Thanks Jason Beaman NWS Memphis Jonathan Howell NWS Memphis Gerry Rigdon NWS Memphis