the 2012 jewish vote national, ohio, and florida post-election jewish surveys
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The 2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys. November 7, 2012. Methodology. National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The 2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys
November 7, 2012
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Methodology
• National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent
• Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
• Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent
• National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study
• Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote
In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.
The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.
Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).
Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable).
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Key Findings
Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews.
• Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida
• Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida
Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.
Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.• Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if it
means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support)• 76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security• 72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters
Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines.
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and Florida
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
2012 Presidential Vote
National Ohio Florida0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
70 69 68
30 30 31
Obama Romney
6
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
President and Congress Vote - Nationwide
7
Obama Romney0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
70
30
Presidential Race
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
69
30
Congressional Race
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies
8
% Democrat / % Republican Obama Vote Shift2008 2012 2008 to 2012
Total 53 / 46 50 / 49 -3
Jewish 74 / 26 70 / 30 -4 Unmarried women 70 / 30 Awaiting exit poll resultsHispanics 67 / 31 71 / 27 +4Voters under 30 years-old 66 / 32 60 / 37 -6
College Graduate 53 / 45 50 / 48 -3Independents 52 / 44 45 / 50 -7Whites 43 / 55 39 / 59 -4
No religion 75 / 23 70 / 26 -5Other religion 73 / 22 74 / 23 +1Catholics 54 / 45 50 / 48 -4Protestants 45 / 54 42 / 57 -3White Evangelicals 24 / 74 Awaiting exit poll results
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Historical Perspective:Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections
• Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980
• Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent
Year % of Jewish Vote
Democrat Republican Independent1972 65 351976 71 27 21980 45 39 141984 67 311988 64 351992 80 11 91996 78 16 32000 79 19 12004 74 252008 74 262012 70 30
9
Source: Exit poll data
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Impact of the Jewish Vote
10
Source: 2008 exit polls
Jewish Population %
2012 Vote Results(Obama/Romney)
New York 6 62 / 36
Florida 5 50 / 49
Pennsylvania 4 52 / 47
New Jersey 3 58 / 41
Nevada 3 52 / 46
Ohio 1 50 / 48
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Presidential and Senate VoteOhio / Florida
Presidential Vote Senate Vote0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
69 71
30 28
Ohio Vote
11
Presidential Vote Senate Vote0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
6872
3126
Florida Vote
Obama
Romney
Sherrod BrownJosh Mandel
Obama
Romney
Bill NelsonConnie Mack
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama
Yes, very se-riously
Yes, somewhat seriously
Yes, only a little seriously
Didn't consider Obama
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2 4 2
23
3 3 3
24
3 2 2
27
National Ohio Florida
(ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney
Yes, very se-riously
Yes, somewhat seriously
Yes, only a little seriously
Didn't consider Romney
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
5 8 6
53
4 4 5
57
35
4
54
National Ohio Florida
(OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney-- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?
13
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012
20080
20
40
60
80
19
52
75
Contributed to Obama's CampaignContributed to McCain's CampaignContributed to both
In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain?
In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney?
14
20120
20
40
60
80
19
61
74
Contributed to Obama's CampaignContributed to Romney's CampaignContributed to both
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Driving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Country DirectionGrowing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction
July 2008
March 2009
August 2009
March 2010
November 2010
July 2011
November 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10
36
54
41 44
34
55
90
64
46
59 56
66
45
Right Direction Wrong Track
16
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote
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National Ohio Florida
The economy 53 60 51
Health care 32 33 29
Social Security and Medicare 23 16 23
The deficit and government spending 20 14 13
Taxes 12 7 5
Abortion 10 15 15
Israel 10 9 14
Terrorism and national security 10 10 9
Education 9 14 13
The environment 5 6 4
Iran 2 2 4
Energy 4 2 3
Illegal immigration 4 2 2
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
National Ohio Florida0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
26
9 12
7484 81
National Ohio Florida0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
34
60 63
3
Congress Job Approval
National Ohio Florida0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
67 67 66
33 31
National Ohio Florida0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
24
45 47
20 24 28
Obama Job Approval
Obama and Congress Job Approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing?
18
Strongly disapproveStrongly approve
Total approve Total disapprove
Strongly disapproveStrongly approve
Total approve Total disapprove
31
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNational
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
3338
71
29
43
30
73
27
2010 2012
Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict
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FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNational, Ohio, Florida
I disagree with the President’s policies
I agree with the President’s policies, but I don’t like the way he is executing these policies
I agree with the President’s policies and I like the way he is executing these policies
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
30
19
46
28
20
47
27
30
43
National Ohio Florida
Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict?
20
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Favorability Ratings - National
Mitt Romney
George W.
Bush
The Republican
Party
Paul Ryan
The Tea Party Movement
Sheldon Adelson
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
6961
54 5247
29 28 26 2316
9
-23-31 -33 -35
-20
-62 -64 -64 -64-69
-29
Favorable Unfavorable
21
Bill Clinton
BarackObama
BenjaminNetanyahu
TheDemocratic
Party
Joe Biden
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida
National Ohio Florida
Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav
Barack Obama 61 / 31 68 / 27 66 / 29
Mitt Romney 29 / 62 30 / 60 30 / 60
The Democratic Party 54 / 33 61 / 26 59 / 28The Republican Party 26 / 64 24 / 64 24 / 63
Sherrod Brown -- 62 / 25 --
Josh Mandel -- 22 / 68 --
Bill Nelson -- -- 53 / 23
Connie Mack -- -- 14 / 59
Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- -- 46 / 28
22
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
The deficit and government spending
Israel
Advancing Middle East peace
The economy and jobs
Dealing with Iran
Terrorism and national security
Social Security and Medicare
Fighting for the things that are most important to you
Health care
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
37
31
25
32
26
26
26
27
26
49
53
53
56
58
60
65
63
65
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
22
19
15
22
17
17
17
18
15
25
29
29
29
33
36
44
44
45
Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryNational
Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?
23
Obama total betterRomney much betterObama much betterRomney total better
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Israel
Dealing with Iran
The economy and jobs
Social Security and Medicare
Fighting for the things that are most important to you
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
29
27
27
25
52
54
66
66
67
22
18
19
18
19
37
40
52
54
56
Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our CountryOhio
Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue?
24
Brown much better job Mandel much better jobBrown total better job Mandel total better job
23
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Israel
The economy and jobs
Dealing with Iran
Fighting for the things that are most important to you
Social Security and Medicare
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
34
30
29
56
61
61
65
65
Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?
26
29
24
25
21
39
41
48
55
55
Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryFlorida
25
Obama much better job Romney much better jobObama total better job Romney total better job
30
34
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Impact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats
26
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / Ohio
National Ohio0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
45
73
55
24
Yes No
Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel?
27
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
National Ohio0
10
2030405060708090
100
3822
23 13
40
63
National Ohio0
10
2030405060708090
100
221615
9
40
63
Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / Ohio
Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)
28
Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneyNo difference
Total Obama Total Romney
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Awareness of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFlorida
Yes No0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
4553
Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran?
29
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Total Support Obama Total Support Romney No Difference0
10
2030405060708090
100
2716
Total Support Obama Total Support Romney No Difference0
10
2030405060708090
100
2212
56
Impact of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFlorida
Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)
30
Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneySomewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential CampaignNational
0
20
40
60
80
16 18
67
Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President?
31
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Total Support Obama Total Support Romney No Difference0
10
2030405060708090
100
44
21
36
Total Support Obama Total Support Romney No Difference0
10
2030405060708090
100
25
11
36
Impact of Netanyahu Involvement
Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate)
32
Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneySomewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict
33
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict
Active role Even if disagree with both sides
Even if disagree with Israel
Putting forth a peace plan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
81
69
52
76
19
31
48
24
Support Oppose
34
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy
Support Oppose0
102030405060708090
49
7
84
16
Imagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy?
35
Strongly opposeStrongly supportTotal support Total oppose
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement
Support Oppose0
20
40
60
80
100
23
72
9
28
Strongly support Total support Strongly opposeTotal oppose
As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include:
36
• A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
• Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return
• Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem
• International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings
• Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians
July 2008 March 2009 August 2009 March 2010 Nov. 2010 Nov. 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60 55 51 51 5045
50
30 32 33 34 3730
Middle East peace is a core American interest, and the United States should use assertive diplomacy to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.Only the parties themselves can make peace, and the United States should let the Pales-tinians and Israelis work out the conflict on their own.
Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right
37
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel
August 2009 November 2010 November 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
4550 49
4135 34
The United States should act as a fair and impartial broker in order to achieve a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.
The United States should side with Israel during peace negotiations in order to protect Amer-ica’s democratic ally Israel.
Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right
38
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy
Series1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
26
16
47
311st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.
39
2nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.
Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly
1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Iranian SanctionsNeed More Time vs. Failed
Series1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
20
28
35
47
1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work.
40
2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly
1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
U.S. Focus in the Middle EastIran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention
Before addressing the Iranian nuclear threat, the U.S. should address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Before addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. should address the Iranian nuclear threat.
The U.S. must address both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian nuclear threat at the same time.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10
29
61
Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East?
41
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
United Nations Relationship with Israel
Fair Unfair0
10
20
30
40
50
60
12
51
21
49
Not at all fairlyVery fairlyTotal fair Total unfair
Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?
42
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status
I’m not sure
Vote for granting non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state
Vote against granting non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
21
35
44
As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote –
43
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Support for Two–State Solution
44
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Support for a Two-State Solution
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
78 81 79 82
22 19 21 18
Agree Disagree
(SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.
45
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State
August 2009 November 2010 November 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
7078 79
3022 21
Agree Disagree
(SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.
46
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
75 7782 81
25 2318 19
Agree Disagree
A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character
47
FigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote
Two-State Solution Important for American Security
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
72 7681 81
28 2419 19
Agree Disagree
A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States.
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