national post-election jewish survey - j street · national post-election jewish survey november 5,...
TRANSCRIPT
The 2014 Jewish Vote National Post-Election Jewish Survey
November 5, 2014
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Methodology
• National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2014 election conducted November 4, 2014; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent
• National survey administered by email invitation to web-based
panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study
• Demographic data closely aligns with the demographic data in the 2013 Pew Jewish National Survey; minor differences due to the differences between general population and midterm election voters
1
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Key Findings
Ø Overwhelming Democratic support in an election that had large Republican gains, demonstrating the core progressive values held by American Jews.
Ø Heading into 2015 and 2016, Jews strongly support President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Ø Most Jews believe construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank should be suspended or restricted to certain areas.
Ø High awareness of the Iranian negotiations, and broad support for an agreement that allows nuclear development for civilian purposes, places international inspectors at Iranian nuclear facilities, and reduces sanctions on Iran as it meets compliance benchmarks.
Ø Major backing for a final status agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters and subsequent negotiations. And Jews support the US presenting this agreement and asking Israelis and Palestinians to use this framework as the basis for returning to negotiations.
2
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
2014 Jewish Vote
3
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
2014 Jewish Vote Result
69
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate
Congressional Vote
4
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Jewish Congressional Vote Consistently Democratic
66 69 69
31 30 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2012 2014
Jewish Congressional Vote
5
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
2010 and 2014 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies
6
% Democrat / % Republican Democratic Vote
Shift 2010 2012 (Obama/Romney) 2014 2010 to 2014
Total 45 / 52 51 / 47 Not Yet Available --
Jewish 66 / 31 70 / 30 69 / 28 +3 Unmarried women 61 / 38 67 / 31 60 / 38 -1 Hispanics 60 / 38 71 / 27 63 / 35 +3 Voters under 30 years-old 55 / 42 60 / 37 54 / 43 -1
College Graduate 45 / 53 50 / 48 48 / 50 +3
Independents 37 / 56 45 / 50 42 / 54 +5
Whites 37 / 60 39 / 59 38 / 60 +1
No religion 68 / 30 70 / 26 69 / 29 +1 Other religion 74 / 24 74 / 23 67 / 30 -7 Catholics 44 / 54 50 / 48 45 / 53 +1 Protestants 38 / 59 42 / 57 38 / 60 +0 White Evangelicals 19 / 77 21 / 78 21 / 78 +2
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
What Drove the Jewish Vote
7
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Country Direction
43
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Right Direction Wrong Track
Do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
8
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Fluctuating Jewish Mood over Direction of the Country
10
36
54
41 44
34
55
43
90
64
46
59 56
66
45
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
July 2008
March 2009
August 2009
March 2010
November 2010
July 2011
November 2012
November 2014
Right Direction Wrong Track
9
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2014 Vote
10
The economy 44 Health care 31 Social Security and Medicare 20 Terrorism and national security 17 The deficit and government spending 16 ISIS and the situation in Iraq and Syria 13 The environment 12 Education 10 Taxes 10 Israel 8 Immigration 7 Separation between religion and state 7 Energy 3 Iran 0
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
18
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jewish voters All voters (Unavailable)
3
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jewish voters All voters (Unavailable)
Congress Job Approval
57
42 43 53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jewish voters All voters
12
42
24
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jewish voters All voters
Obama Job Approval
Obama and Congress Job Approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing?
11
Strongly disapprove Strongly approve Total approve Total disapprove
Strongly disapprove Strongly approve Total approve Total disapprove
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Jewish Voters Have Much More Favorable View of Obama’s Job than Rest of the Population
57
42 43
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jewish Voters All Voters (Gallup)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
12
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Obama Job Approval Jewish Voters vs. Total Population
73 72
62 60 60 67
57 62
53 50 43 46
50 42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
March 2009
August 2009
March 2010
November 2010
July 2011
November 2012
November 2014
Jewish Voters Total (Gallup)
13
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Congressional Approval Time Series
28 27 26
18
72 73 74
82
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
November 2010 July 2011 November 2012 November 2014
Approve Disapprove
14
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Favorability Ratings
61 50 48
20 12 10 10
-31 -38
-44
-71 -65
-56
-30
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
The Republican
Party
John Boehner Mitch McConnell Sheldon Adelson
Favorable Unfavorable
ID:77 ID:88
15
Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
The Democratic
Party
ID:46
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
2016 Presidential Race
69
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hillary Clinton Jeb Bush
71
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hillary Clinton Rand Paul
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote?
16
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, for whom would you vote?
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Attitudes Toward US Role in Resolving the Conflict
17
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict
85
72
48
74
46
15
28
52
26
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Active role Even if disagree with both sides
Even if disagree with Israel
Even if exert pressure on both
sides
Even if exert pressure on Israel
Support Oppose
18
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Support for a Two-State Solution
78 81 79 82 80
22 19 21 18 20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014
Agree Disagree
(SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.
19
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State
70 78 79
72
30 22 21
28
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
August 2009 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014
Agree Disagree
(SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.
20
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character
75 77 82 81 78
25 23 18 19 22
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014
Agree Disagree
A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character
21
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Two-State Solution Important for American Security
72 76 81 81
75
28 24 19 19
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
July 2008 August 2009 November 2010 November 2012 November 2014
Agree Disagree
A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States.
22
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement
26
76
7
24
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Support Oppose
Strongly support Total support Strongly oppose Total oppose
As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 14 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include:
23
• A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
• Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return
• Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem
• International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings
• Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves
• the Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people, and Israel recognizes the Palestinian state as the nation state of the Palestinian people
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Steady Support for Peace Agreement
76
57
72 76
24
43
28 24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
March 2009 July 2011 November 2012 November 2014
Support Oppose
Do you support or oppose such an agreement?
24
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
82
72
34
87
18
28
66
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reform Conservative Orthodox Unaffiliated
Total Support Total Oppose
28 23
12
31
4 8
20
4 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reform Conservative Orthodox Unaffiliated
Strongly Support Strongly Oppose
Support for Peace Agreement by Denomination
25
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
72 77
28 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Under 40 Over 40
Total Support Total Oppose
21 29
2 9 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Over
Strongly Support Strongly Oppose
Support for Peace Agreement by Age
26
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
77
23
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Total Support Total Oppose
31
6 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
100
Strongly Support Strongly Oppose
As you may know, negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians broke down earlier this year. Would you support or oppose the United States presenting a draft agreement along the parameters described above, and asking Israelis and Palestinians to return to negotiations based on these parameters?
Support for Americans Presenting Draft Agreement
27
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
82
72
45
86
18
28
55
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reform Conservative Orthodox Unaffiliated
Total Support Total Oppose
32 24
9
42
3 8
21
4 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reform Conservative Orthodox Unaffiliated
Strongly Support Strongly Oppose
Support for US Presenting Draft Agreement by Denomination
28
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
72 79
28 21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Under 40 Over 40
Total Support Total Oppose
22
35
5 7 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Over
Strongly Support Strongly Oppose
Support for US Presenting Draft Agreement by Age
29
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
28
52
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Israel should suspend all construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank
Israel should suspend construction of Israeli settlements that are outside the core settlement
blocs, but continue construction in areas that are already developed
Israel should build Israeli settlements in any area of the West Bank that it wants
US Jews Oppose Settlement Construction
30
Based on what you know about Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of view.
80% Total
Suspend
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Gaza
31
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
47
5
80
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Strong Support for War in Gaza
Do you approve or disapprove of Israel’s military action, known as Operation Protective Edge, that took place in Gaza this summer?
32
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve Strongly Oppose
Somewhat Oppose
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
75 80
25 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 2014
Total Approve Total Disapprove
40 47
9 5 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 2014
Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove
(2009) Do you approve or disapprove of the recent military action that Israel took in Gaza? (2014) Do you approve or disapprove of Israel’s military action, known as Operation Protective Edge, that took place in Gaza this summer?
Protective Edge / Cast Lead Approval Comparison
33
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
71
84
29
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Over
Total Approve Total Disapprove
35
52
7 5 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Over
Strongly Approve Strongly Disapprove
Support for Protective Edge by Age
34
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Protective Edge Effectiveness
55
31
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
More Secure No Impact Less Secure
Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the military action that Israel took in Gaza this summer, do you think it made Israel more secure, less secure, or had no impact on Israel’s security?
35
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Protective Edge / Cast Lead Effectiveness Comparison
41
55
41 31
18 14 0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
March 2009 November 2014
More Secure No Impact Less Secure
(2009) Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the recent military action that Israel took in Gaza, do you think it made Israel more secure, less secure, or had no impact on Israel's security? (2014) Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the military action that Israel took in Gaza this summer, do you think it made Israel more secure, less secure, or had no impact on Israel’s security?
36
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Protective Edge Effectiveness by Age
54 55
27 32
20 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Over
More Secure No Impact Less Secure
Regardless of whether you approve or disapprove of the military action that Israel took in Gaza this summer, do you think it made Israel more secure, less secure, or had no impact on Israel’s security?
37
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Prime Minister Netanyahu
38
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Netanyahu Favorability
58
50 44
40
50 47
53
27
19 22
33
20 20 24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
March 2009 Aug. 2009 March 2010 Nov. 2010 July 2011 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2014
Favorability Ratings: Benjamin Netanyahu
Favorable Unfavorable
39
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Impact of Netanyahu Policy on US Relations
21
40 40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Helped No Impact Hurt
Do you think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies have helped Israel’s relations with the United States, hurt Israel’s relations with the United States, or had no impact on Israel’s relations with the United States?
40
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Impact of Netanyahu Policy on US Relations by Denomination
22 27
8
17
40 36
46 41
38 37
46 41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Reform Conservative Orthodox Unaffiliated
Helped No Impact Hurt
Do you think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies have helped Israel’s relations with the United States, hurt Israel’s relations with the United States, or had no impact on Israel’s relations with the United States?
41
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Impact of Netanyahu Policy on US Relations by Age
17 22
42 39 41 39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Under 40 Years 40 Years and Older
Helped No Impact Hurt
Do you think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies have helped Israel’s relations with the United States, hurt Israel’s relations with the United States, or had no impact on Israel’s relations with the United States?
42
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Iran
43
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
Most Have Heard about First Step Iran Deal
16
48
30
6 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A great deal of information
Some information Not much information No information
As you may know, the United States, Britain, Germany, France, China, and Russia last year reached a first step agreement with Iran to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for modest relief from sanctions. How much have you heard about this agreement?
44
Figure GBA Strategies – 2014 Jewish Vote
32
6
84
16 0
20
40
60
80
100
Strong Support for Agreement with Iran Imagine that the U.S., Britain, Germany, France, China, Russia, and Iran reach a final agreement, which restricts Iran's enrichment of uranium to levels that are suitable for civilian energy purposes only, and places full-time international inspectors at Iranian nuclear facilities to make sure that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. Under this agreement, the United States and our allies will reduce sanctions on Iran as Iran meets the compliance benchmarks of the agreement. Would you support or oppose this agreement?
45
Strongly Support Somewhat Support Strongly Oppose
Somewhat Oppose
1901 L Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC, 20036 www.gbastrategies.com +1 202 621 1411