the 2013 high-level dialogue on international migration and development: implications for data...
TRANSCRIPT
The 2013 High-level Dialogue on The 2013 High-level Dialogue on International Migration and Development:International Migration and Development:
Implications for data collectionImplications for data collection
Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Workshop on migration statisticsAlmaty, 31 October – 01 November 2013
Bela Hovy, ChiefMigration Section, Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)United Nations, New York
High-level Dialogue on Migration and High-level Dialogue on Migration and Development, New York, 3-4 October 2013 Development, New York, 3-4 October 2013
Preparations Preparations Civil society hearings (15 July) Civil society hearings (15 July)
Panel discussion (25 June) Panel discussion (25 June) Regional preparations Regional preparations
Overall themeOverall theme““Identifying Identifying concrete measures concrete measures to strengthen to strengthen coherence and coherence and cooperation cooperation at all levels, with a view to at all levels, with a view to enhancing the benefits enhancing the benefits of international migration of international migration for migrants and countries alike and for migrants and countries alike and its important links to development, while its important links to development, while reducing its negative reducing its negative impactsimpacts””
RT1RT1: International migration, sustainable development and : International migration, sustainable development and post-2015 development agenda post-2015 development agenda
RT2RT2: Migrant rights, smuggling & trafficking, facilitating regular : Migrant rights, smuggling & trafficking, facilitating regular migration, women and child migrants migration, women and child migrants
RT3RT3: Partnerships, cooperation and coherence : Partnerships, cooperation and coherence RT4RT4: Labour mobility and its impact on development: Labour mobility and its impact on development
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Making Migration Work The SGs 8-point agenda for action
1.1. Protect the human rights of all migrantsProtect the human rights of all migrants
2.2. Reduce the costs of labour migrationReduce the costs of labour migration
3.3. Eliminate migrant exploitation, incl. human traffickingEliminate migrant exploitation, incl. human trafficking
4.4. Address the plight of migrants stranded in crisesAddress the plight of migrants stranded in crises
5.5. Improve public perceptions of migrantsImprove public perceptions of migrants
6.6. Fully integrate migration in development agendaFully integrate migration in development agenda
7.7. Strengthen the migration evidence baseStrengthen the migration evidence base
8.8. Enhance migration partnerships and cooperationEnhance migration partnerships and cooperationUnited Nations, Population Division/DESA
Declaration of the 2013 High-level Dialogue Declaration of the 2013 High-level Dialogue – key elements– key elements
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Migrants contribute to countries of origin, transit and Migrants contribute to countries of origin, transit and destinationdestination
Human mobility a key factor for global, sustainable Human mobility a key factor for global, sustainable developmentdevelopment
Develop initiatives to assist migrants stranded in crisesDevelop initiatives to assist migrants stranded in crises
Promote conditions for cheaper transfer of remittancesPromote conditions for cheaper transfer of remittances
Improve migration data and evidence baseImprove migration data and evidence base
Combat xenophobia, negative stereotyping and Combat xenophobia, negative stereotyping and intoleranceintolerance
Declaration of the 2013 High-level Dialogue Declaration of the 2013 High-level Dialogue - data aspects- data aspects
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
„„Emphasize the need for Emphasize the need for reliable statistical datareliable statistical data on international on international migration, including when possible on the migration, including when possible on the contributions of contributions of migrants to developmentmigrants to development in both origin and destination in both origin and destination countries; this data could facilitate the design of evidence-countries; this data could facilitate the design of evidence-based policy- and decision-making in all relevant aspects of based policy- and decision-making in all relevant aspects of sustainable development;“(para 28) sustainable development;“(para 28)
„„Recognize the need to consider the role that Recognize the need to consider the role that environmental environmental factorsfactors may play in migration;“ (para 25) may play in migration;“ (para 25)
„„Recognize the necessity to consider how the Recognize the necessity to consider how the migration of highly migration of highly skilled personsskilled persons, especially in the health, social and , especially in the health, social and engineering sectors, affects the development efforts of engineering sectors, affects the development efforts of developing countries, and emphasize the need to consider developing countries, and emphasize the need to consider circular migration“ (para 26)circular migration“ (para 26)
International migration data of the International migration data of the Population Division, DESAPopulation Division, DESA
StocksStocks• Global estimates (age, sex, destination and origin)Global estimates (age, sex, destination and origin)
FlowsFlows• Immigration/emigration: 43 countries (31 with outflows)Immigration/emigration: 43 countries (31 with outflows)• Labour permits (exits): 10 countriesLabour permits (exits): 10 countries
Net migrationNet migration (estimates and projections) (estimates and projections)• What to assume for the future?What to assume for the future?
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
International migrant stockInternational migrant stock
“…“…. persons who have ever changed their . persons who have ever changed their country of usual residence, that is to say, country of usual residence, that is to say, persons who have spent at least one year persons who have spent at least one year of their lives in a country other than the of their lives in a country other than the one in which they live at the time the data one in which they live at the time the data are gathered ”are gathered ”
(United Nations Recommendations on (United Nations Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, 1998Statistics of International Migration, 1998))
Population censusPopulation census
Why?Why?• trends (South-South migration) trends (South-South migration) • ‘‘diasporadiaspora’’ • migration corridorsmigration corridors• regional mobilityregional mobility• skills, educationskills, education
IssuesIssues• lack of reportinglack of reporting• delays in availabilitydelays in availability• long data intervallong data interval• irregular migrantsirregular migrants
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Census recommendations on Census recommendations on international migrationinternational migration
UNSD UNECE Core topic
Country of birthCountry of birth
Country of citizenshipCountry of citizenship
Ever resided abroadEver resided abroad
Year or period of arrival in the Year or period of arrival in the countrycountry
Country of previous usual residence Country of previous usual residence abroadabroad
Total duration of residence in the Total duration of residence in the countrycountry
Previous place of usual residence and Previous place of usual residence and date of arrival in the current placedate of arrival in the current place
Place of usual residence five years Place of usual residence five years prior to the census prior to the census
Reason for migrationReason for migration
Country of birth of parentsCountry of birth of parents
Citizenship acquisitionCitizenship acquisition
Origin
Largest census data gaps on migrant stock Largest census data gaps on migrant stock (census) in Africa and Asia(census) in Africa and Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Africa Asia Latin America& Caribbean
NorthernAmerica
Europe Oceania
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Percentage of countries with data on sex, age and origin since 2000 census round
AgeTotal & Sex
Place Place of Birthof Birth
NationalitNationalityy
Age-group Age-group sizesize
Place of Place of originorigin
CommentsComments
ArmeniaArmenia 20112011 20112011 1010 completecomplete
AzerbaijanAzerbaijan 20092009 20092009 55 completecomplete
BelarusBelarus 20092009 55 completecomplete
GeorgiaGeorgia 20022002 20022002 55 completecomplete Next census in 2014Next census in 2014
KazakhstanKazakhstan 19891989 1999 1999 (<10%)(<10%)
5 (FN < 5 (FN < 10%)10%)
1989 1989 completecomplete
Last census in 2009Last census in 2009
KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan 19991999 55 completecomplete IPUMS - FB by sexIPUMS - FB by sex
MoldovaMoldova 20042004 completecomplete Next census in 2014Next census in 2014
RussiaRussia 20102010 55 completecomplete
TajikistanTajikistan
TurkmenistanTurkmenistan
UkraineUkraine 20012001 55 completecomplete Census in 2013Census in 2013
UzbekistanUzbekistan
2013 international migration stock estimates: data availability
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Administrative sourcesAdministrative sources
WhyWhy??• circular migrationcircular migration• timely data on trendstimely data on trends• reasons for migration (permits, visa, entry-exit) reasons for migration (permits, visa, entry-exit) • detailed characteristics at minimal costsdetailed characteristics at minimal costs
IssuesIssues• comparison difficultcomparison difficult• few countriesfew countries• regular migration onlyregular migration only
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Coverage:• 43 countries in 2010 revision
Types of flows:• Inflows • Outflows• Net flows
Criteria used to classify migrants:• Country of birth• Citizenship• Place of residence (previous or future)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
The Population Division has expanded its The Population Division has expanded its data on migration flowsdata on migration flows
0
500
1000
1500
2000
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
00-04
'05-09
0200400600800
1000
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
00-04
'05-09
0200400600800
10001200
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
00-04
'05-09
Average annual immigration of foreigners Average annual emigration of foreigners
Average annual foreign net migration
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Northern AmericaEurope 1970/1980Europe 1990/2000Australia and New Zealand
Migration surveysMigration surveys
Why?Why?• impacts on countries of origin, transit and destination, impacts on countries of origin, transit and destination,
migrants (health, education, income) (post-2015 UN migrants (health, education, income) (post-2015 UN development agenda)development agenda)
• causes (reasons)causes (reasons)• detailed characteristicsdetailed characteristics• higher chance of reaching irregular migrantshigher chance of reaching irregular migrants
IssuesIssues• lack of dedicated fundinglack of dedicated funding• complexity of survey designcomplexity of survey design• comparability / ad hoccomparability / ad hoc
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Migration and DevelopmentMigration and Development- Key opportunities- Key opportunities
RemittancesRemittances• $414 billion to developing countries in 2013 $414 billion to developing countries in 2013
(officially recorded, 3x ODA)(officially recorded, 3x ODA)• Invested in human capital (health, education, etc.) Invested in human capital (health, education, etc.)
Diaspora contributionsDiaspora contributions• Temporary, long-term or virtual “return” of diasporaTemporary, long-term or virtual “return” of diaspora• Transfer of knowledge and skillsTransfer of knowledge and skills• Trade, FDI, Diaspora bondsTrade, FDI, Diaspora bonds
Contribution to destination countriesContribution to destination countries• Contribution to filling labour market shortagesContribution to filling labour market shortages• Reduced dependency ratiosReduced dependency ratios• Entrepreneurship, job creation, …Entrepreneurship, job creation, …
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Remittances: Remittances: the main recipient countries the main recipient countries
71
60
2622 21
48
3125 25 24
India China Philip-pines
Tajikistan Kyrgyz Republic
Top 5 recipients as a share of GDP (2012)
Top 5 recipients (2013)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
US
$ b
illi
on
% o
f G
DP
Mexico Nigeria
Lesotho
Moldova
Source: World Bank
Nepal
Total:414 billion USD
Key challengesKey challenges
““Brain drain”Brain drain” • Emigration of skilled persons Emigration of skilled persons
Undocumented migrationUndocumented migration• Limited avenues for legal migrationLimited avenues for legal migration• Protection of the human rights of all migrantsProtection of the human rights of all migrants• Trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrantsTrafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants
High costs of migrationHigh costs of migration• Lack of portability (skills, social security, diplomas, …)Lack of portability (skills, social security, diplomas, …)• Recruitment feesRecruitment fees• Costs of transferring remittancesCosts of transferring remittances
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Global average cost for sending remittances Global average cost for sending remittances is decreasing, but with regional variationsis decreasing, but with regional variations
20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013
East Asia and PacificEast Asia and Pacific 11.111.1 10.410.4 9.59.5 9.89.8 8.98.9 9.09.0
Europe and Central Europe and Central Asia (ECA)Asia (ECA) 6.06.0 7.27.2 7.67.6 6.96.9 6.56.5 6.76.7
ECA including RussiaECA including Russia 11.011.0 9.49.4 9.59.5 8.78.7 8.28.2 8.48.4
Latin America and the Latin America and the CaribbeanCaribbean 8.48.4 7.67.6 7.37.3 7.77.7 7.77.7 7.37.3
Middle East and North Middle East and North AfricaAfrica 11.111.1 9.69.6 9.09.0 8.28.2 7.97.9 6.66.6
South AsiaSouth Asia 7.87.8 6.96.9 6.56.5 6.26.2 6.56.5 7.17.1
Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa 14.014.0 11.611.6 11.611.6 12.412.4 12.412.4 12.312.3
GlobalGlobal 9.89.8 9.49.4 8.98.9 9.39.3 9.09.0 8.98.9
United Nations, Population Division/DESA Source: World Bank
Total average costs of remittances by receiving regions, 2008-2013, 3rd quarter (percentage)
Population dynamics Population dynamics and the post-2015 and the post-2015 development agendadevelopment agenda
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
millio
ns
-10
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
millio
ns
Total net change
Immigration-emigration
Births-deaths
EuropeSlowing population
decline
AfricaReducing
population growth (but little impact)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
thou
san
ds
CIS Slowing population
decline (but little impact)
What goals or targets for migration can we adopt What goals or targets for migration can we adopt for post-2015 development agenda?for post-2015 development agenda?
AreaArea TargetTarget IndicatorIndicator
RefugeesRefugees Achieve durable solutions, Achieve durable solutions, prevention (zero cases)prevention (zero cases)
# of cases# of cases
# of ratifications# of ratifications
Migrants, Migrants, refugeesrefugees Meet quota (arr. , dep.)Meet quota (arr. , dep.) # of migrants, refugees# of migrants, refugees
Human rightsHuman rights100% ratification? 100% ratification?
HR violations? HR violations? Discrimination?Discrimination?
Ratification of Ratification of conventionsconventions
Trafficking and Trafficking and smugglingsmuggling Zero cases Zero cases
No. of cases prosecuted?No. of cases prosecuted?
IntegrationIntegrationNaturalization? Voting Naturalization? Voting rights? Health, rights? Health, employmentemployment
Access to social Access to social services, labour marketservices, labour market
Remittance Remittance costscosts ““5x5 initiative” (G20)5x5 initiative” (G20) Avg. transaction costs Avg. transaction costs
RecruitmentRecruitment Reduction of costsReduction of costs Avg. recruitment costsAvg. recruitment costs
Irregular Irregular migrationmigration
Reduce # of irregular Reduce # of irregular migrants migrants # persons regularized# persons regularized
How to strengthen data collection on How to strengthen data collection on international migration?international migration?
Ask basic questions, and tabulate the answersAsk basic questions, and tabulate the answers• National statistical offices, DESA, UNFPA, World BankNational statistical offices, DESA, UNFPA, World Bank
Exploit administrative data sourcesExploit administrative data sources• Ministries in charge of migration, statistical officesMinistries in charge of migration, statistical offices
Leverage existing surveysLeverage existing surveys• World Bank, MICS (UNICEF), DHS, ILOWorld Bank, MICS (UNICEF), DHS, ILO
Provide access to micro-dataProvide access to micro-data• Ministries in charge of migration, Ministries in charge of migration,
statistical officesstatistical offices
Build capacity Build capacity • Global Migration Group?’Global Migration Group?’
United Nations, Population Division/DESA