2014 vs 2015 Sales Volume

Jan Feb MarApr May Jun Jul Aug SeptOct NovDec

The Market at a Glance

- First half of the year volume

- Second half of the year volume

2015

/+17.0% +7.1%

2014 2015

$ $700M598MSales Volume

2014 2015

# #1,4571,360Transactions

Overall Totals vs Last Year

I am pleased to report that the Steamboat Real Estate Market was healthy in 2015 and we saw significant progress in several key indicators. The increase in values is allowing more people to sell and move on to their next place. Buyer interest also improved significantly due to improved confi-dence and the desire to find the right place in Steamboat at below replacement cost. 

   Looking forward, the key things that drive markets are in place here in Steamboat and the market is healthy overall.  Buyer interest has been improving, inventory is down, new construction is growing as a result, and values are appreciating in many parts of the market. We expect all of those things to continue.

  2016 is off to a strong start and we are seeing significantly more activity than the start of last   2016 is off to a strong start and we are seeing significantly more activity than the start of last year. The economy and oil prices are concerns for us right now given the stock market is an im-portant source of confidence and funds for buyers. That said, people are shifting some assets into real estate as a result. I expect sales to increase and appreciation to continue in 2016 but am watching the energy sector and stock market to see if it starts to moderate sales, increase inven-tory or impact prices. 

Sales grew 17% in 2015 to $700M, the highest since they were $725M in 2008 as we entered the recession. The peak of our market was $1.6B in 2007 so we still have a ways to go to get there in volume and pricing.The # of transactions only grew 7% which means that average prices increased. Some parts of the market went up more than others so ask us what happened for you. We expect appreciation to continue this year and spread into more parts of the market due to tighter inventory and increased interest.New construction is selling well & for a significant premium to existing places. New construction is selling well & for a significant premium to existing places. The tight supply of homes should increase demand for lots and new construction in 2016.We expect 2-3 significant parcels in the base area to change hands and at least one new condo project to be announced in the next 12-18 months

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2012 - A Brief Look at the Market as a Whole

# #11761398

Total Transactions

2011 20122011 2012

$ $484M451M

Total Volume

44%36%

total residential sales >1m

2011 2012

   Average prices increased 10% due to the combination of reduced supply and increased demand along with more sales over $1.5M. The sales of new spec homes in the mountain area and an increase of 475 sqft (12%) in the aver-age size of the homes were the key factors. The location of the homes sold in this range shifted dramatically. In 2014, 26% of the homes were in the mountain area vs. 47% in 2015. This was driven by spec homes in newer devel-opments. The increased sales dropped time on market 36%.

   Sales in this segment of the market also soared in the 2nd half of 2015 due to the lack of supply under $1M and the increased supply of new spec homes. We expect to see new construction sales continue to increase in this seg-ment given increasing demand and limited supply.

2014 - 1st half sales were $24.6M | 2nd half sales were $27M an increase of 9.7%2015 - 1st half sales were $17.6M | 2nd half sales were $36.3M a leap of 106.2%

Single Family $1-$2M

   Overall Sales Volume grew 5.1% and this segment started experiencing a strong sellers market in June. As a result, the second half of the year was very strong following a first half that was down 16%. It is good to see the market re-cover based on increasing demand and the confidence that comes with it. Values of homes in town increased 7-15%. Average prices in the whole county increased 5% but that isn’t a good indicator of what any particular home is worth.

   More people are buying outside of town which has held average prices down given a house outside of city limits sells for a step or two less.  In 2014, 47% of the homes sold in this range were in the city limits vs. 37% in 2015. The decrease in supply and resulting increase in prices shifted 24% more buyers into the county for their purchase in this range. For example, Stagecoach went from 9% to 18% of sales in this range.

   There is currently only 4 months of supply with 66 homes on the market. This is a strong sellers market for Steam   There is currently only 4 months of supply with 66 homes on the market. This is a strong sellers market for Steam-boat so if you are looking in this range it pays to keep your eyes open and be ready to act.  If you are considering selling your home, it may be worth more than you think and it could pay to beat other homes to market.

Single Family Under $1M

   Sales are down 45% in this range but inventory is also down or the months of supply would have increased more. Basically the market absorbed a lot of homes that had been on the market for years including one home that was on the market for over 1,000 days. It’s sad to see when a home sits on the market this long. They would have gotten more money and been able to move on with their lives if their price and marketing plan was right from the start. 

   This part of the market has come a long way since 2012 when sales were $6.7M, 2013 saw a big jump to $21.5M, we pulled back some in 2014 but still showed strong sales at $17.3M. 

   To explain the pause in 2015 I looked at the homes available in this part of the market. The thing that stands out is    To explain the pause in 2015 I looked at the homes available in this part of the market. The thing that stands out is that many of these homes are priced for perfection. They either need significant updating to reach the pricing they are hoping for or to be re-positioned to where the market will respond. 

 The high-end of the market saw a big resurgence in 2015, primarily in the 2nd half. In both 2014 & 2015 there were 2 sales in the first half.  2015 had 5 sales in this price range in the second half of the year. There was a very high end sale at $7.0M that helped bring the avg. home price in this segment up, whereas in 2014 the highest sell-ing price was $5.7M.

   The average size of the homes went up by 1,342 sqft or 18% driven by the sale of one big home on the Elk River. Without it the average size was nearly the same as 2014.  This home is an interesting example of building a home that was both too large (17K sqft) and on too small of a parcel.  There was about 2 acres on the river side of the road and the remaining 17 acres were across the road.  It would have likely sold for more had it been either smaller or on a larger parcel that afforded some privacy, or both. It’s too bad because the construction quality of this home was amazing yet it sold for less than 50% of replacement cost and about $300/sqft less than it should have for it’s quality. quality. 

Single Family $3M+

Single Family $2-$3M

   Dollar volume fell 4.5% after a strong year in 2014. The decrease was due to lower average prices since there were more sales in Fish Creek which are smaller and lower priced on average vs. the mountain area. Inventory is down by more than half and most individual townhomes have appreciated if comparable supply is low. It’s worth noting that supply is now only 5 months which is the lowest since 2008 before the recession hit Steamboat. It is good to see this part of the market balancing out and we expect to see more appreciation for townhomes this year.

   There is some opportunity in this part of the market for buyers because they have just begun to appreciate and    There is some opportunity in this part of the market for buyers because they have just begun to appreciate and most townhomes are selling below replacement cost. Their are currently only 42 townhomes in this price range listed so if you are interested it is time to take a look as we shift into a sellers market.

2015 saw a strong uptick in buyer interest for condos under $500K with sales up 31.5%. This continues a 4 year trend starting when sales were boosted by the two Trailhead Lodge auctions adding $5M to end with sales of $23.9M in 2012. 2013 had a few spillover auction sales but managed to replace what had been added by the auc-tions and grow beyond that to $28M. 2014 continued the recovery and positioned this part of the condo market to move forward price wise in 2015 as the supply tightened a bit more.  

   The absorption rate continues to drop as more condos are sold and less are coming on the market. Some seg-ments and buildings in this range are in a seller’s market inventory wise and others are nearing one with 7 months of supply overall.

   The average $/sqft was up 13.6% as result of increased demand and tightening supply. We expect this to allow more people to upgrade who have been waiting for prices to recover which may moderate prices and increase in-ventory. If you are considering selling it is time to take a closer look before too many others do.

   Looking forward we expect this range to continue to be popular with buyers. Some of that need should be met by existing owners upgrading due to changing needs and increased prices. Local buyers may want to consider locking in their housing costs at current prices given how tight the rental market is. 

Condos $250K - $500K

Townhomes $500K -$1.5M

   Condos in this range where basically flat over 2014 maintaining a high level of sales volume after 99% growth in 2014.  The most significant insight is that 15 of 20 sales this past year (75%) were in One Steamboat Place where For-tress continues to sell off their inventory before their funds close. This compares to 11 of 20 sales from OSP in 2014. There was only 1 condo sale Downtown over $1M in 2015 compared to 4 in 2014. 

   As we predicted last year supply is down significantly from 15.6 months to 6 months given continued sales and no new building in this price range.  That said, One Steamboat Place has been and may still convert more fractional units to whole units in cooperation with the HOA since they are easier to sell than the fractional units. Currently 5 of 10 active properties are in One Steamboat Place.

   With supply going down the volume in this range is very likely to go down. These condos are selling faster than    With supply going down the volume in this range is very likely to go down. These condos are selling faster than properties are being built coming on the market or appreciating up into this range. Given this, it will be interesting to see when the next new development at the base is announced. Until then the best choices will be the remaining OSP & Howelsen Place condos plus resale units in Edgemont & Olympian and a couple of newer options.

Condos $1M+

   Sales in this range were up 11.5%, continuing the trend seen throughout this report with most of the gains in the second half of 2015. There were 12 sales in the first half and then 20 sales in the second half of the year.  Supply went down sharply from 38 months to 18 in this range which is still high but is preparing this part of the market to appreci-ate as supply tightens further. 

   The areas and developments that these sold in were remarkably similar from 2014 to 2015. In 2014 we saw 6 sales in Downtown and 22 on the Mountain vs. 2015 with 7 sales in DT and 25 on the Mountain. Average price was down 2% & $/sqft down 5.5%, driven by the small increase in the mix of places on the mountain.

   We expect to see sales pick up in this range given the low supply of townhomes and upgrades from people need-ing more space.

Condos $500K -$1M

If your property is currently listed, this is not a solicitation