the activities of tokyo climate center fumio watanabe tokyo climate center climate prediction...
TRANSCRIPT
The Activities of Tokyo Climate Center
Fumio WATANABE
Tokyo Climate CenterClimate Prediction Division, JMA
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)
Mission : To assist Climate Services of NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region
with the aim of Mitigating climate-related disasters and Contributing to the sustainable development in the region
Establishment : April 2002
The Activities of TCC
1. Significance of Climate Informationand Necessity of effective Application
2. Backgrounds of TCC’s EstablishmentFramework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate ServiceLong-range Forecasting Service in JMA
3. Tasks of TCC4. Data and Products available from TCC5. About this Workshop6. Concluding Remarks
Climate Information
“Climate” is average weather condition.
“Normal Climate”
“Climate” has fluctuation around “Normal Climate”.
“Climate Variability”“Climate” shifts to other state of “Climate”.
“Climate Change”
Growing Awareness of Significance
of Climate InformationExtreme Climate Events
Need for Climate Monitoring, Diagnosis, and Prediction
Climate-related Disasters
large fluctuation
from Normal Climate
Climate Information
Globalization of Socio-economic activities
Damages by Disasters
Vulnerability
Coping with disasters
Typical Climate Phenomena and associated Disasters in the Asia-Pacific Region
Winter Monsoon
ENSO
Subtropical-HighBaiu-Front
Asian SummerMonsoon
Drought & Flood
Heavy Snow
Heat Wave
Cold Wave
Drought & Flood
Drought&
Flood
Flood by Snow-melting
El Niño Events as Triggers to Development of Climate Issues
1. 1982/83 El Niño the second largest event in the 20th century Progress of scientific studies on ENSO Development of tropical ocean observing system
2. 1997/98 El Niño the largest event in the 20th century Awareness of Significance of ENSO information and Necessity of its effective application
Understanding of ENSO, Development of ENSO prediction model
Liaison between Science Community and Disaster Management SectorIDNDR of United Nations
United Nations Initiative
IDNDR : 1990-1999 (International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction)
ISDR : 2000- (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
Inter-agency Task Force on El Niño (1997)
Inter-agency Task Force on Disaster Reduction
WG1 on Climate and Disasters (chaired by WMO) El Niño Update (WMO since 2001) WG2 on Early Warning WG3 on Risk, Vulnerability & Disaster Impact Assessment
WG4 on Wild land Fires
GlobalOcean
ObservingSystem(GOOS)
Global TerrestrialObserving
System(GTOS)
WWWGlobal
ObservingSystem(GOS)
GlobalAtmospheric
Watch(GAW)
World Hydrological
CycleObserving
System(WHYCOS)
Inte
gra
ted
Glo
ba
l Ob
se
rvin
g S
trat
eg
y
Su
rfac
e F
resh
wat
er
L
and
O
cean
Atm
osp
her
e
GlobalClimate
ObservingSystem(GCOS)
USER
COMMUNITIES
ClimateInformation
andPredictionServices(CLIPS)
Climate Information
Requirements
Climate Data
Requirements
Detection of
Climate Change
Projection of
the Global Warming
ClimateResearch
Seasonal toInterannual
Climate Prediction
Monitoringthe State of theClimate System
Observation Information Application
Three motivating Backgrounds1. Growing Awareness of
Significance of Climate Information and Necessity of its Effective Application
2. Increasing Recognition of Necessity of International Cooperation Framework planned by World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
3. Technical Development which makes Advanced Climate Services possible
Global SI Products
Operational PreparationProvision
VerificationImprovement
Framework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate ServiceUsers
・ Operational activities Tailored Products
・ Data services
・ Capacity building activities
・ Research and Development
・ Coordination functions
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)Global Producing Centres (GPCs)
Technical Assistanc
eProducts Data,
Feedback
NMHSsClimate
Information
Long-range Forecasting Service in JMA
Period I
Start of long-range forecasting service in 1940’s
Statistical Methods
Period II ( 1980’s )
Introduction of Systematic Monitoring and Diagnosis of the Global Climate System
Period III ( from 1990’s )
Introduction of Dynamical Prediction Model
Importance of monitoring and diagnosis of
the global climate system for long-range forecast
Convection near the Philippines intensifies Subtropical High over Japan in mid-summer.
El Niño and La Niña events
in 1980’s
Period II ( 1980’s ) in JMA
Development of Dynamical Climate Prediction at JMA
• 1996 - One-month forecast
• 1999 - El Niño Outlook
• 2003 - Three-month forecast
Cold season forecast
• 2004 - Warm season forecast
Period III ( from 1990’s)
Integrated Climate Information Production System at JMA
Dynamical Climate Prediction System
El Niño prediction systemensemble prediction
system
Future
Prediction
D/A System
Database / Reanalysis
System
Observations
Present
Monitoring
Past
CDASODAS
Analysis
Monitoring of Global Climate System
Global DynamicalPrediction
Monitoring of Extreme Events
NMHSs in the
Asia-Pacific
NMHSs in the
Asia-Pacific
Climate DataFeedback
Capacity Building Activities
Preparation and Provision ofBasic Climate Information
ENSO Outlook Technical Assistance
Tasks of TCC/JMA
Promotion of Application ofClimate Information
1. Global Climate and Extreme Climate Events global temperature anomalies, global precipitation ratios, etc.
2. Monitoring Report on the Global Climate System atmospheric circulation, convection, lower boundary conditions, oceanographic conditions, Asian Monsoon monitoring, stratospheric circulation monitoring, etc.
3. Current Diagnosis Report and Outlook for ENSO ENSO monitoring products and indices, El Nino outlook, etc.
4. One-month and Three-month Ensemble Prediction prediction maps and verification charts, global GPVs
Data and Productsavailable from TCC’s Web Site
Global GPVs Grids are spaced per 2.5-degree in lat. and in lon.
One-month forecast Ensemble mean of 26 members averaged for 7-day
Three-month forecast Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for a month and three months
Warm and Cold season forecast Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for three months
Grid point value products (available at TCC Web Site, required ID & password)
Home of the TCC’s Web Site
Monitoring of Extreme Climate Events, October 2003
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Asian Monsoon Monitoring
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site
One-month and Three-Month Prediction Products
1. There is Growing Awareness of significance of climate information to cope with climate-related disasters. Effective Application should be enhanced but based on correct understanding of uncertainty of the information.
2. JMA develops and improves the Integrated Climate Information Production System (ICIRS).
Conclusion
3. NMHSs should prepare and deliver climate information. International Cooperation Framework should assist NMHSs. TCC contributes to such a Framework.
4. TCC improves and increases basic climate data and products available from the TCC Web Site. TCC will continue to hold workshops and Training Courses as capacity building activities.