The Anthropocene

From Hunter-Gathers to a Global Geophysical ForceWill Steffen

Executive Director, The ANU Climate Change InstituteThe Australian National University

Human Development andEarth System Dynamics

Evolution of fully modernhumans in Africa

Hunter-gatherer societies only

Beginning of

agriculture

Aborigines arrive inAustralia

Beginningof agriculture

Great Europeancivilisations:Greek, Roman

Human Development andEarth System Dynamics

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern humans

out of Africa

Migrations offully modern humans

from South Asia to Europe

The Anthropocene Era

Steffen, Crutzen, McNeill (2007) Ambio 36: 614-621Crutzen (2002) Nature 415: 23Costanza, Graumlich, Steffen (2006) Dahlem W’shop Rep 96Steffen, Grinevald, Crutzen, McNeill (2011), in review

Before the Anthropocene:Pre-Anthropocene Events (Pre-1800)

•”Fire-Stick Farming” - use of fire as a tool to modify ecosystems to favour particular desired species and to aid in the hunt. Fire was most often used to convert dry forestsand woodlands into savannas and grasslands, and to maintain ecosystems in those states.

• Megafauna extinctions - large-scale (continental) extinctionsof large Pleistocene mammals by hunting, perhaps in combination with climatic changes - North America, northern Eurasia, Australia.

• No discernable effect on Earth System functioning at the global scale

Anthropocene Stage 1(1800-1945)

• Evidence - increase in GHG concentrations, widespreaddeforestation of temperate forests, etc.

• Industrial Revolution - steam engine, fossil fuel energy systems, rapid and wide spread of these energy systems

• Flow-on effects - more efficient techniques for land clearing;synthetic fertiliser; more reliable water supply and bettersanitation, leading to better public health. These developments, in turn, led to an increase in population AND their ability to consume.

From Steffen et al. 2004

AnthropoceneStage 2

(1945 - 2010/2020)

The changing ’humanenterprise’, from 1750

to 2000.

Note the start of the’Great Acceleration’around 1950, when

many activities beganor accelerated sharply.

From: Steffen et al. 2004

Responses of the biophysical Earth System to the accelerating ’human enterprise’.

The biophysical responsesof the Earth System showmany of the same featuresas the Great Accelerationin the human enterprise.

Triggers of the Great Acceleration

• Globalisation: Global networks of communication & finance -crossed a threshold of connectivity

• Emergence of ”armies of scientists & technologists” from WWII

• Dramatic shifts in political & economic structures/institutions

• World economy based on capitalist/neo-liberal economic principles (e.g., increasing commoditisation of public goods)

• ’Growth imperative’ - increasing consumption per capita

Knowledge Science Technology

Population Energy

Institutions

Production/Consumption

PoliticalEconomy

From: Hibbard et al. 2006

The Changing Human-EnvironmentRelationship under the Great Acceleration

Complex impacts of globalisation• Mixed environmental impacts at local levels but

homogenisation of the environment (and cultures!) at the global level

• Negative environmental impacts of debt & financial crises

Urbanisation and the environment• Different experiences and understanding of nature between

urban and rural dwellers (e.g., transformation of rural-urbanlinkages)

• Increased wealth, rising consumption expectations

Governance• Shift to free-market economic systems• Decentralisation & privatisation of environmental management

Human Imprint on Marine EcosystemsFisheries collapse

– The Atlantic cod stocks off the east coast of Newfoundland collapsed in 1992, forcing the closure of the fishery

– Depleted stocks may not recover even if harvesting is significantly reduced or eliminated entirely

– About 50% of all fish stocks are fully exploited, 15-18% are overexploited, and 9-10% have been depleted or are recovering from depletion

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,Steffen et al. 2004

Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere

From landscapes togenes…

Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO (Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)

CaribbeanCaribbean

North North AmericaAmerica

Central Central AmericaAmerica

South South AmericaAmerica

WestWestAfricaAfrica

OceaniaOceania

East &East &South East AsiaSouth East Asia

SouthSouthAsiaAsia

USSRUSSR

North WestNorth WestAfricaAfrica

WesternWesternEuropeEurope

MiddleMiddleEastEast

1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50<

Importer based, over 5 km3/y

km3/y

78.5

33.5

46.2

57.538.8

36.4

Economic Globalization: Virtual Water Flows

(Cereals only)

The multi-faceted nature of global change

Source: Global Footprints Network 2005

Global Footprint of the Human Enterprise

Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008

Sustainable development quadrant

Anthropocene Stage 3(2000 - ?)

Anthropocene Stage 3:The 2000-2010 Decade

• Humans have constructed an artificial chromosome andinserted it into DNA; towards synthesis of life itself

• China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and othersare beginning their Great Acceleration.

• The world is reaching hyper-connectivity - the globalfinancial crisis

• We are approaching - or have reached - “peak phosphorus”

Steffen et al. 2011

Recent oil price rises“High oil prices are fueling one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. Oil consumers are paying $4 billion to $5 billion more for crude oil every day than they did just five years ago, pumping more than $2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil-producing nations this year alone.” Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 10 Nov 2007.

Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2007; US Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP deflator. Economagic.com & IEA for West Texas Intermediate crude prices from Sept 2007.

Possible global production path

Source: Energy Watch Group, (2007) "Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook", EWG-Series No. 3/2007, Ottobrunn, Germany, Ludwig-Bölkow-Stiftung for the Energy Watch Group, October, 101 pp. [http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf]

The fate of the global economy hangs on this wedge of uncertainty. Where does the truth lie?

International Cereal Prices

Source: FAO (2008) Crop Prospects and Food Situation, April.

Analysis of the Global Food Crisis

Biggs et al. 2010

Global-scale concatenation of processes produce shocksthat emerge simultaneously, spread rapidly and interact.

The 2008 global food price crisis - (i) the 2007 oil pricespike, (ii) pro-biofuel policies; (iii) reactionary protectionism

The ingredients for a concatenated crisis?

• Powerful global scale drivers• Propagation of shocks through increased global connectivity• Knock-on effects of management responses elsewhere

The Human Enterprise: Early Globalised

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES

GLOBALISING COMMUNITY

1 %EXXON-MOBILDAIMLER-CHRYSLERMITSUBISHICITIGROUP

14 %

USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGWESTERN EUROPEAUSTRALIA/NZTAIWAN

5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 10%)ESTONIAHUNGARYTHAILAND

15 % BRAZILEGYPTRUSSIASYRIA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)

65 % ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 50%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE

T. Ries, Swedish Institute of International Affairs

Business class

Over the edge

Creative societies

Shared responsabilities

Markets first

Tribal society

Security first

Battlefield

Cybertopia

‘Clash of civilizations’

Barbarization

Prism

Just do it

Ecologically driven

Regional stewardship

Global sustainability

Local stewardship

Provincial enterprise

‘The end of history’

‘No Logo’

‘Our Common Future ‘

B2

A1 B1

A2

Hyper individualism

Changing courseNew global age

Have & have- notsThe hundred flowers

Sustainability first

Policy first

Great transitionsTurbulent neighbourhoods

Cultural pluralism

Voluntary simplicity

Market World

Transformed World

Fortress World

New Empires

Change without progress

De Vr i e s 2 00

Have we underestimated howfast the Earth System can change?

K. Steffen

A. Sorteberg

Photo: Brian Stocks

Kurz and Apps 1999

Climate Change and Fire Regimes

In the past 30-50 years, fire frequency and extent haveincreased in Canada, western USA, Siberia, and theMediterranean region.

Drought and Dust Storms

Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity

– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)

– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

The Anthropocene Stage 3:Sustainability or Collapse

Where on Earth are We Going?

Collapse of Early Civilisations

Top: East Africancivilisation (fromVerschuren et al. 2000)

Middle: Classic MayanCivilisation (fromHodell et al. 2001)

Bottom: Akkadian civilisation (Syria)(from Cullen et al. 2000)

Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations

• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience

• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit ofsystem compatibility

• Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values

• Scarborough (Maya) - self-organisation - networks of alliances and exchanges; adaptation to dynamics of natural ecosystems. Collapse due to centralisation ofpower around two super-cities and distortion ofnetwork flows.

Image : NASA

’Night Lights’ of Earth

Petit et al. 1999; Keeling and Whorf 2000

Outside the envelope of self-regulation?

A Millennium Scale Perspective ...N

.H. T

empe

ratu

re (°

C)

1000 14001200 1600 1800 2000

0

1

-1

2

YearMann et al. (1999) GRL 26:759-762

2000

From: Nakicenovic 2002

Simulated Night Lights

2070

From: Nakicenovic 2002

Simulated Night Lights

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

IPCC Projections2100 AD

N.H

. Tem

pera

ture

(°

C) 0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Now

“Committed” Climate Change

Loss of Greenland ice sheet

Earth System moves to a newstate; modern civilisation collapses

Large biodiversity loss;coral reefs disappear

Feedbacks push climate change higher;abrupt changes much more likely;massive impacts to humans

Is Geo-engineering the Answer?

Steffen et al. 2004

Tipping Elements in the Earth System

Source: Schellnhuber, after Lenton et al, PNAS, 2008

Planetary Boundaries

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene

(Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009)

Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker,Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Ozone depletion

Global Freshwater Use

Rate of Biodiversity

Loss

Biogeochemical loading: Global

N & P Cycles

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Land System Change

Chemical Pollution

Planetary Boundaries

E.S. Process Control Variable Boundary State of Knowledge

Climate change CO2 conc 350 ppm Good, but debate onenergy change +1 W m2 boundary position

Ocean acidif. arag. sat ratio 20% reduction Process understood

Stratospheric O3 conc, DU 5% reduction Boundary agreed O3 loss from pre-indust and respected

Atmos aerosols part. conc. TBD Thresholds unknown

P & N cycles N: amt fixed 35 Tg N/yr Boundaries areP: inflow to ocean 10 x pre-indust educated guesses

Freshwater use Blue water use 4000 km3/yr Global aggregate

Land system Fraction of land 15% ice-free Regional distributionchange cultivated land surface is critical

Biodiversity Extinction rate <10 E/MSY Diversity-functioning??

Chem. Pollution Amt emitted TBD Aggregate effects??

Estimate of quantitative evolution of control variables for seven planetary boundaries from pre-industrial levels to the present . The inner (green) shaded nonagon represents the safe operating space with proposed boundary levels at its outer contour. The extent of the wedges for each boundary shows the estimate of current position of the control variable. Points show the estimated time trajectory of each control variable from pre-industrial to the present.

Emission trajectories for 2 C guardrail:Cumulative emissions approach

WBGU 2009

Time

Ris

k of

col

lap

se;

Deg

ree

of u

n-s

ust

ain

abili

ty

Present

SustainabilityTarget

Short-termPragmatism

Short-term policy actions

Long-term and foundational issues

Fischer, Manning et al. 2007

The Sustainability Gap

constant rate 3.2 mm/year

Evolution and Climate Change

Source: Katherine Richardson, Copenhagen University

At the time of Darwin, it was thoughtthat humans had a special, God-givenposition above all other living things.Darwin’s work showed that we AREapes, a part of nature (not above it)and “just” another animal. That insightchallenged deeply held beliefs aboutthe human-environment relationship.

Climate change has evoked a similar level of deep emotion inthe public. Can humanity really affect the functioning of its ownlife support system at the planetary scale? What are theimplications of this for our definition of “progress”, our way of lifeand our future?

The “Sustainability Hierarchy”…

…rather than the “Triple Bottom Line”

After I. Lowe 2005

Economies

Social Systems

Earth’s Life Support System

Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible

Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals HimselfIn the Qur'an, in man's IntelligenceAnd in the nature around man.Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care,Are the Laws of His Worlds....

Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an

Perspectives on the Human-Environment Relationship

Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind.Lao She, Buddhist monk

We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it....

Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders'

©Se

bast

ião

Salg

ado

…The future will depend on the nature of human aspirations, values,preferences and choices…

Sustainability or Collapse?