the arctic: five critical security challenges

7/29/2019 The Arctic: Five Critical Security Challenges

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www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC

Critical Security Challengesin the ArcticBy Andrew Holland, Nick Cunningham, and Xander Vagg

September 2013

Introduction

Te Arctic is the last rontier. Its harsh conditions, severe storms, ice cover, and long periodso darkness have made human exploration and habitation dicult. However, due to climatechange, melting sea ice is opening up the Arctic like never beore.

Te Arctic region is the area lying within the Arctic Circle: latitude 66 33North. 1 TeArctic region consists o the Arctic Ocean and the sovereign territory o Canada, Denmark(via Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and theUnited States o America.2

oday, Arctic and non-Arctic nations alike are more interested in this once inaccessibleregion because climate change and technology are combining to open the Arctic unlike atany time in human history. Large reserves o oil and gas are located within the Arctic, as welas minerals such as coal, iron, diamonds, and copper.3

Shrinking ice coverage is opening up new trade routes, allowing shipping companies to takeadvantage o shorter routes.

While the retreating sea ice does present new commercial opportunities, this remains apunishing environment that will reveal new challenges. In this new era in Arctic history, iis unclear that the United States Government has enough planning or oresight in order toprepare or this new era.

Tis Perspective Paper will argue that on ve o the most critical challenges acing the UnitedStates in the Arctic, the American government is either ailing to plan or or has inadequate

plans to meet these challenges.
http://americansecurityproject.org/http://americansecurityproject.org/http://americansecurityproject.org/


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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

5 Challenges in the Arctic

I. Energy Exploration

II. erritorial Disputes and the Law o the Sea

III. Inrastructure or Emergency ResponseIV. American Military Presence

V. Managing the U.S. Presence on the Arctic Council

Background: Te Arctics Changing Climate

Te melting and re-reezing o Arctic sea ice has remained airlyconsistent or much o human history. However, sea ice began

to melt rapidly in the 1970s.4 According to reconstructedice cores, scientists ound that the current rate o melting isquicker and is lasting longer than it has been in at least the past1,450 years.5 In 2012, summer sea ice retreated to its lowestextent or satellite-recorded data.6

Te melting sea ice is largely due to warming temperaturescaused by man-made carbon emissions. Te rate o changein the Arctic is astounding. Te nature o Earths greenhouseeect is such that the poles warm astest when greenhouse gas

concentrations increase. Arctic sea-ice plays a role in refectingsolar energy back into space by bouncing back energy and heatthat would otherwise be absorbed by dark ocean water. Teabsence o sea ice allows the ocean to absorb more heat, whichcontributes to urther warming in a eedback loop.7

In act, temperatures in the Arctic are rising at twice the rate asthe rest o the world.8 Changes in the region have progressed

with such speed that many experts now believe the Arctic maybe entirely ice-ree within a decade or two.9 Residents o Alaskaare already seeing these eects, as their villages literally all intothe Arctic Ocean.10

In a troubling scenario, climate change may contribute to the release o subsurace methane gas trappebeneath permarost. As temperatures rise and permarost melts, methane may be released in large quantitieMethanes impact on climate change is over twenty times greater than carbon dioxide.11 Tere is evidence ththis process is already underway.12


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I. Energy Exploration

With a measure o irony, a warming Arctic means that more energy resources are available the very sameossil uel resources that are causing the warming.

Tere could be vast untapped reserves o oil and natural gas in the Arctic; the U.S. Geological Survey

estimates 90 billion barrels o oil, or 13% o the worlds undiscovered reserves. One-third o those reserves areconcentrated in U.S. territory.13 Much o the Arctic is geologically unexplored, so reserve estimates are merelyan educated guess and could be higher or lower.

Te Obama administration has supported energydevelopment in the Arctic as part o its all-the-aboveenergy strategy.

A string o setbacks has, or now, delayed plans bycertain companies or oshore drilling. Oil companiescalled o drilling in the American portion o the Arcticin 2013, stating that they will not resume drilling untilthe summer o 2014 at the earliest.

Arctic drilling conditions sea ice, severe storms, a lacko inrastructure have proved to be more challengingthan the industry or the administration previouslyanticipated.

Tese diculties led the Department o Interior to conduct a review o Arctic energy exploration, but it isunclear that the U.S. government has the plans or policies in place to allow energy development to proceed

in a sae manner.14

Meanwhile, Russia has plans to develop oil and gas throughout the Arctic. In March, Russian oil giant Rosnetsigned a cooperation agreement with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to develop oil inthe Barents Sea.15

Looking orward, the U.S. government maintains support or energy development in the Arctic, but it willbe a challenge to ensure that it is done saely in hostile terrain. Meanwhile, even i oil development in the

American zone continues to be delayed, policymakers will have to prepare or spill response; other nationswithin the mostly enclosed Arctic Ocean are moving orward and oil slicks do not recognize national

boundaries.


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II. erritorial Disputes and the Law of the Sea

For much o the Arctic region, there is a clear delineation o the sea area under the control o eacho the eight Arctic nations. Under international law, codied by the United Nations Convention onthe Law o the Sea, states may extend their territory outward rom their coast into maritime areas.

Tese zones are reerred to as the erritorial Sea (up to 12 nautical miles (nm) rom the baseline),the Contiguous Zone (up to 24 nm), and the Exclusive Economic Zone (up to 200 nm) (EEZ). Teright to exploit natural resources lying in the seabed belongs to the coastal State, 16 and states mustallow sae passage o vessels through all but their territorial sea.

Te Law o the Sea allows states to extend their EEZ(thereore allowing exploitation o resources) i thestate can prove that their continental shel extendsbeyond the 200 nm limit. In the Arctic, only Russiaand Norway have done so but other states may ollow.

erritorial disputes in the Arctic are an excellentexample o several national security issues convergingonto one geographic region; because o climate change,energy resources that were previously unavailable arenow becoming accessible, setting o a scramble by the

Arctic (and several non-Arctic) states to use whateverinternational legal regimes are available to claim asmuch territory as possible. Te Law o the Sea providesthe legal ramework or resolving these disputes.

Te United States stands at a disadvantage or itsailure thus ar to ratiy the treaty. As other countriessubmit claims to territory beyond their 200 mile EEZ,as is their right under the Law o the Sea, withoutratication, the U.S. does not have the standing tochallenge these claims and assert its own claims underthe convention.

Te American reusal to ratiy the treaty has created ambiguity over territorial rights beyond itsEEZ, and it means that American policymakers do not have any say over other disputes. In this

time o great change and fux in the Arctic, the United States is absent rom a key table at which theArctics uture will be negotiated.


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III. Infrastructure for Emergency Response

Seasonal commercial activity in the Arctic Ocean is increasing as sea ice disappears. Already, commercialshipping has traversed the Northern Sea Route through Russian sea lanes, and plans are underway or theNorthwest Passage through Canadian and American waters. However, the lack o adequate inrastructurealong Americas Arctic shores to service this increased trac poses a signicant challenge. Te extraction o

energy resources, greater shipping trac, and new shing opportunities also add up to the possibility o moreaccidents at sea.

For example, there is insucient inrastructure to ensure sae navigation, initiate search and rescue missions,or to coordinate pollution response. Tis is most evident in the lack o Arctic ports or ships in distress.17 TeCoast Guard has no permanent presence in the Arctic; it operates out o bases in southern Alaska.18 Te CoastGuard also operates only one heavy and one medium icebreaker.19

Americas Arctic inrastructure would be sorely tested in the event o an oil spill.Te Arctic Council agreed upon a binding oil spill response plan during its 2013meeting in Kiruna, Sweden.20 However, it is unclear i the U.S. possesses the requisiteinrastructure to respond to such an event, as the Coast Guard does not have apermanent presence in the Arctic. Much o Alaskas highway network, limited tobegin with, is built on permarost. Melting permarost is causing many roads tobuckle, making transportation in warmer months dicult.21 As the needs to meetincreased Arctic activity are rising, U.S. inrastructure is lacking at this time.

At a time when the Arctic region has become more important or national aairs, the Navy and Coast Guardhave lacked the icebreaking capacity needed to ensure year-round access to Polar regions. Since 2010, only themedium icebreaker Healy has been available or service. Te Coast Guard has two heavy icebreakers, the sisterships Polar Star and Polar Sea, which are unavailable or service. Commissioned in 1976 and 1978, respectively,

these two ships have passed their intended 30-year service lie. Te Polar Star recently completed a six yearhiatus rom active duty, during which she underwent $57 million in repairs.22 She is undergoing testing andis expected to return to active service at the beginning o FY2014, with 7 to 10 years o anticipated serviceahead. Te Polar Sea has been unavailable or operation since an engine breakdown in 2010 and is likely to bedecommissioned. As o the summer o 2013, only the Healy is available or service. For comparison, Russiaoperates 25 polar icebreakers, Finland and Sweden each have seven, and Canada has six.2324

wo studies, the Coast Guards 2011 High Latitude study and a January 2011 Department o HomelandSecurity Inspector Generals Report have identied that the Coast Guards icebreaking capability will beunable to meet uture demands.25 In their FY2014 budget, the Coast Guard has requested $2 million or

initial survey and design o a new heavy icebreaker, which could cost up to $800 million. In the ace o budgetcuts and competing priorities, it is unclear whether Congress will und such a project.

Te U.S. Coast Guard released its Arctic Strategy in May 2013 with three overarching strategic objectives:improving awareness, modernizing governance, and broadening partnerships.26 Tese objectives are worthygoals, but it is unclear whether these policy tweaks will be enough; what is needed is actual investments inmodern ships and inrastructure.


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IV. American Military Presence

With the end o the Cold War, the potential or interstate confict in the Arctic where U.S. and Russiterritory are in closest proximity has largely receded. Currently, the United States Department o Deendoes not view disputes in the Arctic as a likely source o confict in the near-term. 27 As a result, the Umilitary has a light Arctic ootprint, and Deense Department planners project that the U.S. will not ne

additional bases or deep drat ports through 2020.28

Te U.S. militarys Arctic strategy is ocusedon maintaining peace in the region andensuring reedom o navigation. However,its ability to do so is questionable. InSeptember 2011, the U.S. Naval WarCollege conducted war exercises called theFleet Arctic Operations Game (FAOG) toidentiy gaps that limit naval operations in

the Arctic. Te exercises demonstrated thatthe U.S. Navy is inadequately prepared toconduct sustained maritime operations inthe Arctic region, and would need to relyupon the U.S. Coast Guard, tribal leaders,industry, and multinational partners toreduce mission risk.29

Unlike the United States, our other Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark, Norway, and Russia) have demonstrata commitment to increasing their military presence in the region, improving inrastructure and augmentifeet and troop levels at a rapid pace.

Canada is converting a deep-water port on Ban Island into a major naval base, building eight new vessvia the Arctic Patrol Ship Project, and considering establishing training acilities in Resolute Bay near tNorthwest Passage.30 Te Danish military is creating an Arctic Response Force,31 and Norway has committto purchasing 48 F35 aircrat or the continued presence o core areas in the High North.32

Russias deense commitment to the region is perhaps the most extensive; it controls the largest icebreakfeet in the world, and is currently constructing what will be the worlds largest nuclear-powered icebreakerRussias largest naval feet is its Arctic feet, headquartered in Severomorsk o o the Barents Sea, and hpublicly committed to expanding this already impressive orce.34

Te chances o armed confict are remote, but as Arctic trac increases, the U.S. government will need to able to deend its interests. On the other hand, countries must be careul not to increase tension and mistruby militarizing the Arctic. Careully balancing these complexities to ensure continued peace in the Arctic wbe a key task or the military as sea ice continues to melt.


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V. Managing the U.S. Presence on the Arctic Council

Canada is taking over its two-year chairmanship o the Arctic Council in 2013. Te U.S. should develop astrategy over the next two years or when its term begins in 2015.

Te Arctic Council was established in 1996 by the Ottawa Declaration as a high level intergovernmental

orum to provide a means or promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic Stateson common Arctic issues, in particular issues o sustainable development and environmental protection inthe Arctic.35 Te council includes eight permanent members: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway,Russia, Sweden, and the United States; as o May 2013, twelve Observer States had been invited to join.36

One recent development isthe inclusion o China intothe Arctic Council. Chinahas repeatedly pressed orinclusion as an observer

state, and was grantedthat status in May o thisyear (along with ve otherstates).37 Te Arctic Councilawarded Observer statusto China ater debate in arecent council meeting.

Te renewed global interestin the Arctic is an indicationo the regions coming role as

a stage on which to jockeyor infuence and resources.38

Despite this new observer status, the role which China intends to play in the Arctic region and Beijings useo the Arctic Council in advancing its national interests remains unclear.

Looking orward, as the U.S. assumes the Chair in 2015, it will need to ensure that the Arctic Councilunctions as a orum that can deal with the new realities within the region. American policymakers will needto lay out a coherent strategy or policy goals or the Arctic. Te Obama administration published its NationalStrategy or the Arctic Region in May 2013, but the strategy outlined vague goals rather than a comprehensive

approach.39

In the coming months, the administration should add details and a plan or implementation in order toensure it conronts the major challenges head on.


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Conclusion

Due to rapid climate change, the opening o the Arctic promises to be an emerging geopolitical issue in thcoming years. While the region will likely remain peaceul or the oreseeable uture, challenges remain.

Te U.S. has thus ar not outlined how its energy development in the Arctic will proceed in a sae manner.

With a limited Coast Guard and Navy presence, the ability to respond to an oil spill or search and rescmission is uncertain. Te U.S. government assumes there will be increased Arctic activity rom shippinshing, energy development, etc., but it is ar rom clear i the inrastructure exists to support it. Maintaininpeace in the region must be a priority, but the U.S. has yet to outline a way orward. Te U.S. military has nplans to expand its presence, yet it has also ound current orce structures to be insucient to the missions.How the United States addresses these ve challenges will help to determine whether the Arctic is a sasecure venue eaturing international cooperation, or whether it becomes another area o resource competitiointernational disagreement, and confict.

Te uture o the Arctic will be determined over the coming years America should play its part.

Andrew Holland is a Senior Fellow, Nick Cunningham is a Policy Analyst, and Xander Vagg is a Junior Fellowat the American Security Project, a non-partisan think tank devoted to studying questions of Americas long-term

national security.


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Endnotes

1. National Museum o Natural History. (2013). Arctic. Retrieved May 2013, rom Forces o Change web site: http://orces.si.edu/arctic/04_00_07.html

2. Arctic Region Facts: Arctic Geography, Arctic Focus. Retrieved May 15, 2013, rom http://arcticocus.com/arcticregionacts/

3. Lth, M. S. (December 21, 2011). Who Owns the Arctic? A Stocktaking o erritorial Disputes. Te Global Journal. http://

theglobaljournal.net/article/view/439/

4. Skeptical Science. (March 22, 2013). Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle. Retrieved May 2013, rom http://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-melt-natural-or-man-made.htm

5. Skeptical Science. (November 24, 2011). Arctic Sea Ice Hockey Stick: Melt Unprecedented in Last 1,450 years. Retrieved May,2013, rom: http://www.skepticalscience.com/Arctic-sea-ice-hockey-stick-melt-unprecedented-in-last-1450-years.html

6. National Aeronautics and Sapce Administration. (September 19, 2012). Arctic Sea Ice Hits Smallest Extent In Satellite Era.Retrieved May 2013, rom NASA web site: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/eatures/2012-seaicemin.html

7. National Snow & Ice Data Center. (2013). Termodynamics: Albedo. Boulder, CO. Retrieved rom NSIDC web site, availableat: http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html

8. IPCC Fourth Assessment. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Observations o Climate Change. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1.html

9. Overland, J., & Wang, M. (2013). When Will the Summer Arctic Be Nearly Sea Ice Free? Geophysical Research Letters, 1-17.

10. Goldenberg, Suzanne. Americas First Climate Reugees. Te Guardian. May 13, 2013. Available at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2013/may/13/newtok-alaska-climate-change-reugees

11. Environmental Protection Agency. (April 22, 2013). Overview o Greenhouse Gases. Retrieved May 2013 rom EPA webs site:http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html

12. National Science Foundation. (2010, March 4). Methane Releases From Arctic Shel May Be Much Larger and Faster TanAnticipated. Retrieved May 14, 2013, rom NationalScienceFoundation.org: http://www.ns.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532

13. United States Geological Survey. (July 23, 2008). 90 Billion Barrels o Oil and 1,670 rillion Cubic Feet o Natural Gas As-sessed in the Arctic. Retrieved May 15, 2013, rom USGS web site: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1980#.UB- watuyh241

14. Department o Interior. (2013). Review o Shells 2012 Alaska Oshore Oil and Gas Exploration Program. Washington, D.C.:DOI. 1.

15. Staalesen, A. (March 25, 2013). China to drill in Barents Sea. Barents Observer, Available at: http://barentsobserver.com/en/energy/2013/03/china-drill-barents-sea-25-03.

16. Article 56(1)(a) UNCLOS

17. Arctic Council. (2009). Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report. Arctic Council. 154-155. Available at: http://www.arctic.gov/publications/AMSA/inrastructure.pd

18. Papp, A. R. (November 1, 2012). Te Emerging Arctic Frontier. Annapolis, MD: U.S. Naval Institute. http://www.uscg.mil/seniorleadership/DOCS/2012-02-01;%20Proceedings.pd

19. ORourke, R. (2013). Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background and Issues or Congress. Washington DC:Congressional Research Service.

20. Boyd, A. (May 15, 2013). Binding Oil Spill Agreement Signed. Barents Observer. Available at http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2013/05/binding-oil-spill-agreement-signed-15-05.

21. Environmental Protection Agency. (May 16, 2013). Alaska Impacts & Adaptation. Retrieved May 2013, rom EPA web site:
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http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/alaska.html

22. Ronald ORourke, Congressional Research Services (July 3, 2013). Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization:

23. Background and Issues or Congress Available at: http://www.as.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL34391.pdRonald ORourke, Cogressional Research Services (April 21, 2011). Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background, Issues, and Optioor Congress p. 20. Available at: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL34391_20110421.pd

24. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Te Fleet o the Canadian Coast Guard, June 2013. http://www.do-mpo.gc.ca/media/ba

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26. U.S. Coast Guard. (2013). United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategy. Washington D.C.: USCG. Available at: http://www.usmil/seniorleadership/DOCS/CG_Arctic_Strategy.pd

27. Department o Deense. (2011). Report to Congress on Arctic Operations and the Northwest Passage. Washington DOUSD. 10. http://www.deense.gov/pubs/pds/tab_a_arctic_report_public.pd

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34. RUSSIA: HE NON-RELUCAN ARCIC POWER. (February 12, 2011). Retrieved May 22, 2013, rom Second LineDeense: http://www.sldino.com/russia%E2%80%99s-recent-arctic-moves-the-non-reluctant-arctic-power/

35. Arctic Council Website: http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/about-us/arctic-council/about-arctic-council

36. Including China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, Spain and the UnitKingdom.

37. Te other nations granted observer status include India, Italy, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

38. Myers, S. L. (2013). Arctic Council Adds Six Members, Including China. Te New York imes. http://www.nytim

com/2013/05/16/world/europe/arctic-council-adds-six-members-including-china.html?_r=039. Te White House. (2013). National Strategy or the Arctic Region. Washington D.C. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/deau

les/docs/nat_arctic_strategy.pd
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Building a New American Arsenal

Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan initiative to educate the

American public about the changing nature o national security in the 21st

century.

Gone are the days when a nations strength could be measured by bombers

and battleships. Security in this new era requires a New American Arsenal

harnessing all o Americas strengths: the orce o our diplomacy; the might o

our military; the vigor o our economy; and the power o our ideals.

We believe that America must lead other nations in the pursuit o our common

goals and shared security. We must conront international challenges with

all the tools at our disposal. We must address emerging problems beore

they become security crises. And to do this, we must orge a new bipartisan

consensus at home.

ASP brings together prominent American leaders, current and ormer members

o Congress, retired military ocers, and ormer government ocials. Sta

direct research on a broad range o issues and engages and empowers the

American public by taking its fndings directly to them.

We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex and diverse

as terrorism, the spread o weapons o mass destruction, climate change, ailedand ailing states, disease, and pandemics. Te same-old solutions and partisan

bickering wont do. America needs an honest dialogue about security that is as

robust as it is realistic.

ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to orge consensus, and to spur constructive

action so that America meets the challenges to its security while seizing the

opportunities the new century oers.

www.americansecurityproject.org
http://americansecurityproject.org/http://americansecurityproject.org/http://americansecurityproject.org/