The Arctic Region in a Climate Change World

The Scientific Foundations for Policy

Pathways forPathways for Copenhagen and

BeyondBeyond

Dr. Robert W. Corell, Chair of the Climate Action Initiative, an International Partnership

“The stakes are high. Climate change has profound implications for virtually allhas profound implications for virtually all aspects of human well being, from jobs and health to food security and peaceand health to food security and peace

within and among nations. Yet too often climate change is seen as anclimate change is seen as an

environmental problem when it should be part of the broader development andpart of the broader development and

economic agenda. Until we acknowledge the all-encompassing nature of the threatthe all encompassing nature of the threat,

our response will fall short.”Kofi Anan. Former Secretary General of the United Nations

621

CO2

C t tiLet’s look at the Earth’s climate d ring the time that h manit as Concentrations over

the past 400,000 years, with current

during the time that humanity, as we know it, established itself.

CO Levels Now at ~ 385 ppmv

ylevels of CO2 higher than they have been

in 800 000 yearsCO2 Levels Now at ~ 385 ppmv in 800,000 years.

CO2 Pre-Industrial Levels where at ~ 280 to 300where at 280 to 300

ppmv

Let’s look at thisLet s look at this scale of time, the past 10,000 years or so.

Ice Core data A shopping list

Tiny Hollow Spheres with Captured Samples

pp g

• The ice: 18O , 17O , 16O, 1H og 2DC• Continental dust, volcanic ash, micro metheorites and biological materialI Cl NO SO 2 F H N K• Ions: Cl-, NO3

-, SO42-, F-, H+, Na+, K+,

NH4+, Mg2+, Ca2+

• Gas in air bubbles: CO2, CH4, O2, N2, SF

Cross-Section of an Ice Core SF6.

• Radioactive isotopes: 10Be, 36Cl, 210Pb, 32Si, 14C, 137Cs, 90Sr.

Ice Core

• DNA• Ice Properties • Bore hole logging: temperature, gg g p ,

geometryNatural ice through polarized light(sample size : 4 x 10 cm)

One DegreeDegree Matters

We face an incredible challenge: Emissions now exceed theWe face an incredible challenge: Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario.

mis

sion

s yr

) (IPCC Worst-Case)

sil F

uel E

m(G

tC/y (IPCC Worst Case)

Foss

Year 2008Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

At thisYear 2008Atmospheric CO2

Concentration:

At this accelerating

rate we will be at 500 ppm byConcentration:

387 ppm~ 40% above pre industrial

at 500 ppm by 2050

~ 40% above pre-industrialGrowth in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations/Year

1970 - 1979: 1.3 ppm/yearpp y1980 - 1989: 1.6 ppm/year1990 - 1999: 1.5 ppm/year er

atin

ger

atin

g

pp y2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm/year

2007: 2.2 ppm/year Acc

ele

Acc

ele

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

pp y2008: 2.3.ppm/year

Global Carbon Project October 2008 ReportNewDataNewData

• Since 2000, CO2 emissions derived from human sources have been growing x4 faster than in the g g1990s and are now above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

• Despite 15 years of intense international climate negotiations, concentrations of CO2 in the atmospheric have been growing 33% faster during th l t 8 th i th 1990the last 8 years than in the 1990s.

• These drivers of climate change are accelerating.

~ 20%Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2007)

20%Atmosphere

46%4.2 Pg Carbon/yr4.2 Pg Carbon/yr

~ 46%

(1 5 Pg Carbon /yr)

+~ 80%Land

~ 29%

(1.5 Pg Carbon /yr)

80%2.6 Carbon Pg/yr2.6 Carbon Pg/yr D

own by 5

Dow

n by 5

Oceans~ 26%

2 3 Carbon Pg/yr2 3 Carbon Pg/yr(7.5 Pg Carbon /yr)

5%5%

Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

2.3 Carbon Pg/yr2.3 Carbon Pg/yr( 5 g Ca bo /y )

Down ~ 5%

Let’s look at the role the oceans play in the dynamics of climate change.

Why are the oceans Important?Why are the oceans Important?

Because that is where the heat goes !Because, that is where the heat goes !

Data from Levitus et al, Science, 2001

Warming of the World’s Oceans(An Analysis of the past 40 Years)

No Anthropogenic Forcing (Blue)

With Anthropogenic

Observational Data (Red Dots)

Forcing (Green)

Source: T.P. Barnett, et al 2005

Does this Melting of Sea Ice have other Effects, such as an Impacts on Oceanic Circulation?

Critical RegionCritical Region

as an Impacts on Oceanic Circulation?

Critical RegionCritical Region

Changes in Oceanic Temperatures of Importance.Changes in Oceanic Temperatures of Importance.

Conveyor OFF

• Strong cooling in North Atlantic

• Strong cooling in North Atlanticin North Atlantic

• Warming everywhere else

in North Atlantic

• Warming everywhere else

• No net global change

• No net global change

Marine Species Impacted by Ocean Acidification

Ocean AcidificationWhat are the prospects for the coming decades?

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Turley et al 2006)

QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

The Arctic is now experiencing some of the rapid and severe climate change on Earth!

The Arctic region is facing dramatic hchanges

• Substantial Changes in Climate d th

• Substantial Changes in Climate d thand weather

• Rapid cultural and social changeand weather

• Rapid cultural and social change• Globalization such as mixed

economies and technological • Globalization such as mixed

economies and technological gchanges

• High Concentrations of

gchanges

• High Concentrations ofHigh Concentrations of Contaminants such as PCBs and mercury

High Concentrations of Contaminants such as PCBs and mercurymercury

• Ozone depletion that leads to UV i

mercury• Ozone depletion that leads to UV

i

September 10 - 14, 2009September 10 - 14, 2009p ,p ,

140 Years = An Increase of 1.25 OC or 2.25 OF

Recent Findings:ACIA Model Projections j

in 2004

4 1 Million Square Kilometers on4.1 Million Square Kilometers on September 15, 2008

Actual Sea Ice Extent 2007

and 2008and 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Conditions on September 15th 20082008

Greenland

R iRussia

AlaskaAlaska

Projections of Sea Ice Extent for Mid-SeptemberProjections of Sea Ice Extent for Mid-SeptemberThese open waters dramatically change the balance of reflected radiation from These open waters dramatically change the balance of reflected radiation from

Recent Model Runs Suggest this by 2030 -

plus or minus a decade

about 85% reflected to about 85% absorbed by both the open water ocean and the non-snow covered land, a major change in the radiation feedback

mechanisms, accelerating warming and major changes in weather patterns.

about 85% reflected to about 85% absorbed by both the open water ocean and the non-snow covered land, a major change in the radiation feedback

mechanisms, accelerating warming and major changes in weather patterns.

Ilulissat Region of Greenland

IlulissatGlacier

Il li tIlulissatFjord

Ilulissat Glacier: Major Calving EffectIlulissat Glacier: Major Calving Effect

Scale is over kilometer across the face and about 900 meters highScale is over kilometer across the face and about 900 meters high

Wh f h hWh f h hWhat are some of the other consequences for the Arctic Region?

What are some of the other consequences for the Arctic Region?

Methane Bogs in Siberia

QuickTime™ and aH 264 decompressorH.264 decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Shifting patterns in weather types and

locations. Thunderstorms have migrated

northward, along with lightningwith lightning,

which apparently caused the first known wildfire

north of the Brooks Range occurred g

last summer.

15

Th hiftThese shifts are governed by (1)changes in oceanic Climate temperatures, (2) salinity, (3)nutrients, (4)changing

driven changes in

marine changing patterns in North Atlantic Deep Water formation,

a eecosystems.

and (5)interspecies interactions.

The sea and inland ice is changing rapidly and disappearing inThe sea and inland ice is changing rapidly and disappearing in places essential to indigenous residents of the Arctic.

In Summary:• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now

evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

• There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of i d th i l l f t i l diwarming and other regional-scale features, including

changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.p

• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with li t d f db k if hclimate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas

concentrations were to be stabilized.What can we sayWhat can we sayWhat can we say about the future?What can we say about the future?

(Purpose of C-ROADS(Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support)

• Improve understanding of important climate• Improve understanding of important climate dynamics among:

PolicymakersyEducatorsThe public

• A climate model that is designed to help ensure that climate policy is informed by accepted, peer-reviewed sciencereviewed science

An Assessment of Current Copenhagen (CoP 15) Proposals by

An Assessment of Current Copenhagen (CoP 15) Proposals byCopenhagen (CoP 15) Proposals by the 192 Countries of the UNFCCC

Copenhagen (CoP 15) Proposals by the 192 Countries of the UNFCCC

EU - Emissions 80% below 1990 by 2050

Brazil - 10-20% reduction of 2004 by 2020

China - Reduce emissions intensity 20% by 2020

South Africa - 40% below 2003 by 2050

2020US (Warn-Lieb) -71% below 2005 by 2050

Other Latin America - bau

India - Reduce emissions intensity 20% by 2020

Other Africa - bau

2020Russia - 1990 levels

Mexico - 10% below 2004 by 2014

Other Asia -Reduce emissions intensity 20% by

Global Deforestation - bau

2020

Canada - 20% below 2006 by 2020

Middle East - bau OECD Pacific -60% below 2000 by 2050 (AUS)

Afforestation - bau

2020 by 2050 (AUS)

The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Drops CO2 Concentrations from 950 ppm to

The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Drops CO2 Concentrations from 950 ppm to

1000.00

about 700 ppm (The Target is 450 ppm of less) about 700 ppm (The Target is 450 ppm of less)

700 00

800.00

900.00 BAU

Sept 09

500.00

600.00

700.00Proposals

200.00

300.00

400.00

0.00

100.00

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21001900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Source: Climate Action Initiative using C-ROADS and SI Analysis of the Current Proposals

The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Yields an Average Global Temperature from the Business As Usual (BAU) of

4 50 oC (over 7 oF) by 2100 to about 3 5 oC above Pre-Industrial

The Publicly Known Proposals to Reduce Emissions as of September 2009 Yields an Average Global Temperature from the Business As Usual (BAU) of

4 50 oC (over 7 oF) by 2100 to about 3 5 oC above Pre-Industrial

4 50

5.00

BAU

4.50 C (over 7 F) by 2100 to about 3.5 C above Pre-Industrial4.50 C (over 7 F) by 2100 to about 3.5 C above Pre-Industrial

3.50

4.00

4.50

Sept 09Proposals

2.50

3.00

3.50

1.50

2.00

0.50

1.00

0.00

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Source: Climate Action Initiative using C-ROADS and SI Analysis of the Current Proposals

Sea Level Rise Projected for the Current Proposals by the 192 FNCCC Nations

The question is: At what temperature will we stabilize?

750 ppm ~ 4.3 0CIPCC (2007) Forecast

550 ppm ~ 3 0C

450 ppm 2 0C450 ppm ~ 2 0C

There is the potential that the climate is likely, as projected byas projected by

the IPCC, to take humankind

where it has never been

17

Climate change is no Climate change is no glonger simply an

environmental issue it is

glonger simply an

environmental issue it isenvironmental issue, it is an issue of economic security as well a an

environmental issue, it is an issue of economic security as well a ansecurity as well a an

equity issue for human ll b i h li

security as well a an equity issue for human

ll b i h liwell-being. The policy challenges are

well-being. The policy challenges are

Thank You !extraordinarily difficult!extraordinarily difficult!

The Model

C-ROADS Model Structure

(3 7 or 15 blocs)

User Input

SeaSpecific country Carbon

Total fossil fuel CO2

(3, 7, or 15 blocs)

Cli t

Other GHGs

TempSea

Level risecountry

emissionsCarbon cycleemissions

Net CO2 emissions

GHGs in atm

Climate

from forestsDeforestationAfforestation Forests

User Input

The Simulation Produces Atmospheric CO2 Levels Consistent with IPCC and other Scenarios

The Simulation Produces Atmospheric CO2 Levels Consistent with IPCC and other ScenariosConsistent with IPCC and other ScenariosConsistent with IPCC and other Scenarios

Atmospheric CO2 Projected1,000 BERN ISAM A1FI

750

500ppm

BERN ISAM B1

250

0

MAGICC WRE(C-ROADS results in blue)

01850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Time (Year)

Conclusion of Scientific Review Panel

The C-ROADS model: • “reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three

dimensional climate models very well”

• “is a sensitivity tool rather than a tool to provide precise• “is a sensitivity tool, rather than a tool to provide precise quantitative estimates of projected emissions, CO2concentrations, and temperature and sea level responses.”

• “Given the model’s capabilities and its close alignment with a f i bli h d i th F th A trange of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment

Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among policy makers and the general public.”

Simulator Helps Users Conduct Customized Tests: What If ?Tests: What If…..?

Regional FF Emissions6 B

Regional FF Emissions6 B

Regional FF Emissions10 B

Business as usual4.5 B

3 B

Tons

C/y

ear

4.5 B

3 B

Tons

C/y

ear

All reduced 80% by 2050? Or by 2030?7.5 B

5 B

Tons

C/y

ear

Business as usual

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

1.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

2.5 B

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

Regional FF Emissions6 B

4.5 B

Regional FF Emissions6 B

4.5 B

Regional FF Emissions6 B

4.5 BSome by 2030 d th 2060?

Starting in 2018?Developed acts but undeveloped

3 B

1.5 B

Tons

C/y

ear

3 B

1.5 B

Tons

C/y

ear

3 B

1.5 B

Tons

C/y

earand others 2060? doesn’t?

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

02007 2023 2038 2054 2069 2085 2100

Time (year)

(all graphs fossil fuel emissions)