the bay area as a global research center in 2050 · 1 looking past austerity: the bay area as a...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lookingpastausterity:
TheBayAreaasaglobalresearchcenterin2050
(&UCBerkeley’sroleasoneofitsthreeparts)
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Inthethroesofausterity,UCBerkeley(UCB)heldacompetitiontoredevelopitsRichmondFieldStationsiteasa5-millionsq.ft.“BerkeleyGlobalCampus.”TheideaissimilartothenewresearchcampusonRooseveltIslandinNYC,butthesiteisisolated.WhenUCBlookedfordeveloperinterest,onlyarchitectsshowedup.Theirplanslookgreat,butnoneofthemmadetheobviouspoint…
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“Hey,thisisthewrongsite!”
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OneprecedentthatUCBmayhavehadinmindwithitsBerkeleyGlobalCampus(BGC)istheUCSanFrancisco(UCSF)ResearchCampusatMissionBay.LiketheBGC,itbeganwithacompetitionthatdrewinternationalentrants.ThelandwasgiventoUCSFbytheowner-developer,Catellus.UCSF’spresenceinMissionBayimmediatelyattractedthebiotechindustrytoadjoiningsites.TheCityandUCSFlaterbuiltawomen’shospitalonanadjoiningsite.
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UCSFMissionBaywasenvisioned(bythecompetitionwinner,Machado&Silvetti)asanacademicprecinct.
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Therealityismorelikeasciencepark,withlargefootprint“ground-scraper”buildingswithrelativelylittleporosity.AcommonsbuildingbyRicardoLegorretaanchorsstudentlife.
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AmainquadrangledesignedbyPeterWalkerreinforcesthis.
ThelandscapedquadrangleintroducesahumanscalethatismissinggenerallyinMissionBay,whichalwaysfeelslikeitwasplannedforpeoplewhoare1.5xnormalhumansize.Nowthatahospitaladjoinsittothesouth,thelackofporosityisanissue.
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MissionBay,aformerrailyard,wasplannedinthe1970s,butonlytookoffwhenCatellus,therailroad’srealestatespinoff,gaveUCSFlandforaresearchcampus.(UCSF’soriginalcampusisatcapacity.)It’sself-contained,butringedbybiotechbuildings.1990splanningsetMissionBayhousingapart.Today,it’spartofthework/lifemix.
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TheUCSFResearchCampusbuilt-out,minusthenewhospital.
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Mobility,technology,andwork/lifestylesmeanthatlabandresearchfacilitiesaremergingwithotheruses.Co-workingspaces,incubators,andacceleratorsnowincludelabs.HugecompanieslikeGEareemulatingthesesettings.Universitiesandthird-partycompaniesaregettingintotheact.ExampleswithwhichmycompanyisinvolvedincludeGEandMITinBoston,JohnsHopkinsinBaltimore,andMatterinChicago(biotech).
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WhattheseexamplessuggestUCSF’sResearchCampus,likeGE’snewHQ,maybethenew“large,”with“medium”and“small”beingmorefrequent—andexpansionmainlyinvolvinginfill,oftenwithinamixed-usedevelopmentoremergingmixed-usedistrict.
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UCSFResearchCampusmayhavegivenUCBtheideathata2ndcampusisthebestsettingfortheBGC.Butthesitetheychoseischallengingincomparison.Transitisthebiggestissue.
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DistantfromtheMainCampus,thesitelacksrailtransitaccess.
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NotevenaprivatelysponsoredplanbyBIGcouldgetaroundthis.RailservicetoMarinCountywillconnectBCGtotheregioninthefuture,butpotentialdeveloperpartnersthinkmuchshorterterm.
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AnotherinspirationforBGCmayhavebeenApple’sgigantic,NormanFoster-designedRinginCupertino(inSiliconValley).
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ThePentagon-sizeRingreflectsSteveJobs’viewofhowAppleinnovates.LikeBGC,it’sdisconnectedfromthetransitnetwork.
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Meanwhile,inSF,Salesforce’sMarcBenioffabandonedanewMissionBayHQbyRicardoLegorreta,optingtoleaseinSalesforceTowerinthedowntowntransitcorridor,creatingaverticalcampusthatadjoinsothertowersinwhichSalesforcehasleasedspace.Hedidsoarguingthat“thisiswhereouremployeeswanttobe.”
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ManyobserversintheBayAreabelievethatApple’sRingisamistakeandthatBenioff’sdecisiontolocatedowntownandhedgehisbetsbyleasingisthesmarterstrategy.Itspeakstorealestateandworkplacetrendsinthetechsectorthatarespreadingrapidlytootherpartsoftheeconomy,includinghighereducation.
• Workisprojectbased,carriedoutbyteams.• Mobilityisprizedbecausetheteamsgowheretheprojectis.• Shortcommutesarefavoredoverlong,despitetechbuses.• Live/workispreferredifavailable,socitytrumpssuburbs.• Designisinthemix.Designthinkingisbiginmanufacturing.• Labsarelesslikelabs,morelikeco-working/makerspace.• Thejuryisoutre:centralizationvs.decentralization,butthe
trendistowardsmallerandcollocatedtocutcostandrisk.• Flexibilityiskey,bothtoturnspaceon/offandreshapeit.• Spaceondemandisathing.Thirdpartiesareinthepicture.• Placeisabigbet.Thetrendislessfixed,moreflex.
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ThenewCornell-TeknionResearchCampusonRooseveltIslandinNYCisacampus,butithasnodeansordepartments.Everythingisblurredandblended.Butthere’sstillabuild-it-and-they’llcomeassumption.Inreality,NYCmaybethedraw,thereal“campus.”
ThisistheBolognamodel,theuniversityinthecity.UCBandStanfordhavecampuses,fixed“gatheringplaces”thatcarrytheir“brand.”Thisisahugeadvantage,freeingthemtoleverageitbeyondtheircampuseswithoutlosingthatinherentidentity.
Thetrendsintechandbiotechargueagainstthesecondcampusmodel.Trendsindevelopment,eveninthesuburbs,alsoargueagainstit,becauseeverythingthat’sgettingbuilttodayisnotjustmixeduse,butdesignedforremixingasmarketdemandshifts.
TherearestillstandalonecampusesintheBaArea,butthey’rebuckingthetrendtowardwalkable,transit-accessedurbanitythatblendsactivitiesandusesinanevolving,open-endedmanner.
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TheBerkeleyGlobalCampusisreallyaboutensuringthatUCBremainsatop-tierresearchuniversityatmidcentury.Tous,thatgoalpointstoaregionalstrategythatrecognizeshowtheBayAreaisgrowingasanetworkoftransit-connectedurbancenters.AlogicalfirststepistoreinforcetheUCBCampus’sconnectiontoOakland,SanFrancisco’sfast-growingrival.BART,abigpartoftheregion’srapidtransitnetwork,providesanaturalarmature.Asthissuggests,UCB,UCSF,andStanfordallhaveastakeinensuringtheBayAreaison2050’sworld-classresearchmap.Theyalsohaveincommonthattheyarecluster-focused.Theybenefitfromsymbioticrelationshipswithindustry.
Let’stakeaquicklookatthesethreeinstitutions.
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Theirrespectiveresearchareasreflecttheirrelationshipswithbiotech/pharma(UCB,UCSF),tech(Stanford,UCB),andtech-drivenmanufacturing(Stanford,UCB).ThesearecurrentlytheBayArea’sdominantindustries,fueledbythedigitalandbiosciencerevolutionstheiruniversitiessparked.
UCBisfocusedonbioscience,materialscience,andtech.
UCSFandStanfordMedicalCenteraretheBayArea’stwoleading,hotlycompetingteachinghospitals.UCSFhasaseparateresearchcampusfocusedonbioscience.
StanfordengineeringschoolcreatedSiliconValley.Techinallitsforms—old,new,andneo—isStanford’sforté,butitisalsostronginbioscience,pharma,andmedicine.
While,we’reatit,let’sgivethissomeregionalcontext.
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TheBayArea’s$758.5billionGrossRegionProductisequivalenttothecurrentGDPoftheNetherlands.
TheBayArea’s9countiesstretchnorthtoSonomaandNapa,andsouthtoSanMateoandSantaClara(SiliconValley,SanJose).SanJose,SanFrancisco,andOaklandarethemajorcities.Itspopulationis7.65million;itsdensityis330people/km2.
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Here’showthemetropolitanBayAreacomparestomajormetropolitanareasinAustraliaandSE/EastAsia:
BayArea:7.65millionpop.,$758.5bilGRP,36.6yrsmedianage
Sydney:4.91milpop.,$337.5bilGRP,36yrsmedianage
Melbourne:4.53milpop.,$266.2bilGRP,36yrsmedianage
Singapore:5.61milpop.,$307.9bilGDP,40yrsmedianage
HongKong:7.36milpop.,$309.9bilGRP,42.8yrsmedianage
(NotethattheBayAreaisaboveaverageineducation.)
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Californiaistheotherrelevantcontextfortheseinstitutions.TheUSA’swealthieststatehasa$2.5trillionGSP,biggerthanFranceandBrazil.Ifitwereacountry,itwouldrank#6.
TheBayArea’stech/biosciencebiasisbalancedbymedia,entertainment,andgaminginSouthernCalifornia,andbyagriculture/vinicultureintheCentralValleyandelsewhere.
BothCaliforniaanditsregionsarevulnerabletotheebbandflowoftheirdominantindustries.Thisiswhyhavingastrongresearchbaseissoimportant.Californiaisalsosubjecttoearthquakesanddroughts.Bothwillcausedisruptions.
ThisarguesforbotharegionalandanincrementalapproachtomaintainingBayAreaasaleadingglobalR&Ddestination.
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Toshedlightonthis,let’slookaheadto2050.
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BerkeleytoStanfordis90minuteswithatransfer.UCSFis60minutes,alsowithatransfer,frombothUCBandStanford.
Transitwillbekey.UCBis1blockfromBARTlinessouthalongtheEastBayandwesttoSF.TheUCSFResearchCampusconnectstoCalTrainbybus/tram.StanfordhasbusservicetoCalTrainatPaloAlto.Ofthethree,onlyUCBistransit-connected.
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A2050viewoftherailnetworkincludingBerkeleyandOakland.A2ndcross-baytubeservesAlamedaandWestOakland.Themain“nodes”areBerkeley(UCB),UCSFChildren’sHospital/MacArthur(medical),and19thand12thStreets(Oakland’surbancore).UCBcangrowincrementallyalongthiscorridor.
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By2050,theBayAreawillbepartofatwo-statesuper-regionthatwilltakeinSacramento,CAandReno,NV,with21millionpeople.
In2050,theBayAreawillconsistof10urbancentersandtransitcorridors.Itwillconnecttoregionstotheeastandsouthbyhigh-speedrail(HSR).
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Sothisisanimportantpoint:theexpansionandextensionoftheseseparateinstitutionswilloccuralonggrowthcorridorsthatareproximatetothemandtransit-linkedtoadjoiningones.
TheseurbancentersareanchoredbyorintheorbitofUCB/LBNL(1),UCSF(2),Stanford(3),Tesla,etal(4),andLLNL(5).In2050,theywillbelinked.
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Inshort,transitprovidesthearmaturefortheregion’sgrowth.
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Walkable,transit-orienteddevelopment(TOD)willbemandated.
Inhigh-density,transit-servedcenterslikeSanJose,atransithublikeDiridonStationwillbethecenterofwalkablenewdevelopmentinshortcommutedistanceofhousingandrecreation.
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DowntownOaklandwillgrowsimilarly.Inbetweenthesehubs,redevelopmentwilloccuraroundsecondarycenters.
SanFranciscoisaddingaregionaltransithublinkedtoUCB,UCSF,andStanford.Thisiswheretechwillcluster.VerticalcampusesliketheSalesforceTowerarecloserwheretech’stalentlives.
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Millbraeisanexample—closetoSFOairportandconvenienttodowntownSFandSiliconValley.Developmentherewillbelessintensethantheurbancores,butwithamixofusesthatcanincludeco-working/incubatorspacethatcaterstotech/biotech.
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Thesesecondarycenterswillhouseuniversity/industry-affiliatedacceleratorsandincubatorsliketheseinLondonandBaltimore.
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Let’swrapthisup.Herearethemainpoints:1. Maketimeyourfriend.Addingincrementallyovertime,with
optionsaboutwhenandwhere,keepsyoufuture-proof.
2. Growwiththeflow.What’saregrowthtrends?Whereistransitheadednext?Gowithit,becauseit’sgotmomentum.
3. Buildonwhatyoubringtothetable.Topuniversitiesarepump-primersoftheeconomy,desirablelong-termpartners.
4. Don’thesitatetojoinforces.Togetontheworld’smap,don’tgoitalone.Synergywillgetyouawholebiggerthantheparts.
5. Don’tforgetstewardship.Universitieshavearesponsibilitytopushforurbanityandresilience,locallyandregionally.
6. Thinkregionally.Opportunitiesdrawtalent,buttalentstaysbecausepeopledecidetomaketheirlivesinthisgreatplace.
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Likewedid.
