the biofuel myths and factsfeb. 2, 2006, presentation at 3m in maplewood, minn. – p.10/70....

The Biofuel Myths and Facts

ROBERT NEUBECKER, New York Times, 08/15/2006

Tad Patzek, Civil & Environmental Engineering, U.C. Berkeley

September 28, 2006, San Francisco

Motivation

For a successful technology,reality must take precedence overpublic relations, for Nature cannotbe fooled.RICHARD FEYNMAN, Presidential Commission on theSpace Shuttle Challenger Accident, Appendix F – Personalobservations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986

– p.1/70

The Most Important PointsThe astronomic scale of energy consumption fromfossil plants and the minute scale of energyproduction from new plants are fundamentallyincompatible

In engineered crop systems, we continuously applyfossil fuels and nutrients to replenish soil

What Earth has produced over 400 million yearscannot be produced in annual cycles

If we ever attempt to do so, we will destroy the planetand ourselves

The initial stage of planetary destruction is well underway

We must pull back and use fewer resources– p.2/70

Summary of MythsUS can follow Brazil in replacing 40% of gasolinewith ethanol

US ethanol is plentiful and cheap

US ethanol production uses little fossil energy

Ethanol production and use diminish CO2 emissions

Fuels from biomass will replace transportation fuels

In 20-50 years, 50-100 million acres will producethese biomass fuels with future technologies

Cellulosic ethanol will replace most of US gasoline

Cellulosic ethanol can be produced efficiently on alarge scale

Biodiesel from soybeans is an efficient biofuel– p.3/70

Summary of FactsBrazil replaced 105% of its petroleum use withdomestic crude oil production and 8% with ethanol

US ethanol is limited in supply and very expensive

75% of US ethanol energy comes from fossil fuels

Ethanol production and use increase CO2 emissionsby 50-100% in US, and thousands % in Brazil

Fuels from biomass cannot replace fossil fuels

All US land area does not grow enough biomass forour current transportation fuel consumption

Cellulosic ethanol cannot replace most of gasoline

Beyond workbench scale, there is no efficientcellulosic ethanol technology

– p.4/70

Units in My Presentation. . .The fundamental unit of energy is 1 exa Joule (EJ)

1EJ = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Jis the amount of metabolized energy in food sufficient

to sustain the entire U.S. population for one year

Currently the U.S. uses 105 EJ/year; one hundredand five times more than we need to live

If we were to metabolize this amount of energy, wewould be 15 m long sperm whales, each weighing 40tonnes. There are ∼1.9 million of sperm whalesworldwide and 300 million Americans

– p.5/70

Homo Colossus Americanus. . .

1 Statistical American = 1 Sperm Whale

EUGENE ODUM, Ecological Vignettes, 1998

– p.6/70

US Population Projections

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 22000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100U

.S. P

opul

atio

n, M

illio

ns

Census DataCensus ProjectionLogistic Growth

Source: www.census.gov/popest/states/tables/NST-EST2004-01.xls– p.7/70

Projected US Energy Use

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 22000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350U

.S. E

nerg

y U

se, E

J/Y

ear

TotalOilNatural Gas

Sources: US Census Bureau, EIA, Jean Laherrere, Patzek (2006) – p.8/70

The Problem of Scales. . .

Brief Explanation

– p.9/70

Brazilian Ethanol Fuel Claims

“I went down to Brazil and I sawPresident Lula down there. I don’t knowif you know this, but the vast majority offuel to fuel the cars in Brazil is madefrom sugar.”

President GEORGE W. BUSH

Advanced Technology InitiativeFeb. 2, 2006, Presentation at 3M in Maplewood, Minn.

– p.10/70

Brazilian Energy Supply ClaimsBrazil Replaced 40% of Gasoline Use with Ethanol

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5E

xa J

oule

s/Y

ear

(1018

J/yr

)

Oil ConsumptionOil ProductionAnhydrous EtOH Consumption

Sources: BP, Earth Policy Institute, EIA, Ethanol Producers Association

– p.11/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Energy in Brazil’s petroleum is less than that in US corn

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5E

xa J

oule

s/Y

ear

(1018

J/yr

)

US Corn GrainBrazil, Oil ConsumptionBrazil, Anhydrous EtOH Consumption

Sources: BP, Earth Policy Institute, EIA, Ethanol Producers Association

– p.12/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Brazil Replaced 8% of Petroleum with Ethanol

1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

2

4

6

8

10

12A

lcoh

ol/C

rude

oil

Con

sum

ptio

n, E

nerg

y %

Actual %Mean value

Sources: UNICA, São Paulo Sugarcane Agroindustry Union, Earth Policy Institute

– p.13/70

The Reason for the MythEthanol Use was 40% of Gasoline Use in Cars

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Natural gas

Brazilian Automotive Fuels, Volume Percent of Total, March 2006

Energy in ethanol = 40% of gasoline energy

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy– p.14/70

Lessons for the US?To be a Brazil, Decrease US Petroleum Use 6 times

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45E

xa J

oule

s/Y

ear

(1018

J/yr

)

US, Oil ConsumptionBrazil, Oil ConsumptionUS, EtOH Consumption

Sources: BP, EIA, Earth Policy Institute

Factor of 10 Decrease

– p.15/70

Facts: US vs Brazil

Unless We Do the Following, Let’s Not Deceive US Public:

For equal per capita use of petroleum, we must cutdown petroleum consumption in US by a factor of 6

This would mean driving all vehicles one day perweek

All passenger cars and SUVs would have to bedriven only one day every two weeks

– p.16/70

US Ethanol Claims#1: Ethanol Is Plentiful and Cheap

“The ethanol is there, the cars are there, we just haveno distribution system because the oil companieswon’t do it”

“In the US, ethanol costs about $0.75 – 0.90 a gallonto produce”

“Compared with any price you can imagine forgasoline, down to about $35 a barrel, ethanol ischeaper”

Source: Vinod Khosla, Biofuels: Think outside the Barrel, April 2006

– p.17/70

True Cost of EthanolFact Value Units

Mean ethanol tax credit for “small producers” 0.06 $/gallon

VEETC tax credit 0.51 $/gallon denatured

Mean ethanol tax credits 0.57 $/gallon denatured

Cumulative corn subsidies in US 1995-2004 41.9 $ Billion

Cumulative corn produced in US 1995-2004 95.3 Billion Bushels

Average corn subsidies 1995-2004 0.44 $/bushel

Mean rack price of EtOH (06/19/06) 3.65 $/gallon denatured

Mean EtOH yield from 2000 to 2004 2.48 gallons EtOH/bushel

Mean subsidy of EtOH from corn subsidies 0.18 $/gallon EtOH

Mean state subsidies for EtOH 0.15 $/gallon EtOH denatured

Total mean subsidy of EtOH 0.90 $/gallon EtOH denatured

Mean cost of EtOH to taxpayer 4.55 $/gallon EtOH denatured

Energy equivalent cost of EtOH to taxpayer 6.91 $/gallon GGE

– p.18/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?US Ethanol is Very Expensive, Not Counting the Subsidies

1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

1

2

3

4

5

6W

hole

sale

Pric

e, U

S $

/gal

lon

Until June 2006

87 Octane GasEthanolEthanol Energy Equivalent

Sources: Sources: Nebraska Ethanol Board; Nebraska Energy Office, Lincoln, NE– p.19/70

US Ethanol Claims#2: Ethanol Production Uses Little Fossil Energy

“Corn ethanol has 1.2 to 1.8 of the fossil energyinputs”

“Petroleum has 0.8 (sic!) of the fossil energy inputs,so ethanol is about twice as good as petroleum”

“They always forget to mention that petroleumdoesn’t produce a unit of energy out for every unit in”

“There’s petroleum transportation, there’s refining,there’s all those costs”


– p.20/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?

Production of gasoline or diesel fuel in your gasstation from crude oil at the refinery gate costs onaverage about 11-12% of the chemical energy in thiscrude oil

Production of ethanol from corn grain at the plantgate costs at least 60% of the chemical energy inthis corn grain

Then you have to truck this ethanol out and distributeit

Sources: DOE NREL (1998), Patzek (2006)

– p.21/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Ethanol Distilleries are 7×Less Efficient than Petroleum Refineries

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2006 S.D. PUC Energy Bills

1995 National Average, Wet Mill

1995 National Average, Dry Mill

1995 Best State, Wet Mill

1995 Best State, Dry Mill

1995 State−of−the−Art, Wet Mill

1995 State−of−the−Art, Dry Mill

2005 ICM, Inc. Dry Mill

2002 Illinois State Guidelines

Energy of ethanol refining/Energy of petroleum refining

Includes electricity cogeneration

SteamElectricity (Primary)Bulk TransportOther

Sources: ICM, MORRIS & AHMED (2000), SHEEHAN ET AL. (1998)

– p.22/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Ethanol Production is 2 − 4×Less Efficient than Gasoline

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1






Patzek, 2004





Overall energy efficiency of corn−ethanol cycle

Without DDGSWith DDGSGasolineCoal Dust

– p.23/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?To displace 1 gallon of gasoline one needs 6.2 gallons of ethanol

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8






Patzek, 2004





Gallons of ethanol to displace 1 gallon of gasoline

With DDGSWithout DDGS

– p.24/70

Ethanol Claims#3: Ethanol Production and Use Diminish CO2 Emissions

Corn ethanol provides 20-30% reductions ofequivalent CO2 emissions

Sugarcane ethanol eliminates almost all emissions ofCO2: “Brazil Ethanol =∼60-80% reduction in GHG”


– p.25/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Emissions from corn ethanol are ∼50% higher thanfrom gasoline or diesel, and 100% higher if one addscows fed with DDGS

Sugarcane has caused widespread damage of theCerrado, high soil erosion, and widespreadcontamination with field chemicals and vinasseeffluent

Crops displaced by sugarcane from the Cerradohave moved to the Amazon, causing unprecedenteddeforestation and gigantic CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from Amazon deforestation and peatoxidation rival the total US CO2 emissions

– p.26/70

CO2 from NRRs in Corn-EtOH Cycle

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

P2O5

KCl

NG

Herbicides

Transportation

Electricity

Gasoline

Custom work

LPG

Seeds

Diesel

CaO

Wastewater BOD

EtOH Plant Transport

Machinery

Nitrogen as Ammonia

Humus Oxid.

EtOH Plant Fuel

Equivalent Carbon Dioxide Emissions, g/MJ in EtOH– p.27/70

CO2 from NRRs in Corn-EtOH Cycle

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

NRR in EtOH−Corn Cycle

Diesel Fuel

Gasoline Fuel

Methane Fuel

Equivalent Carbon Dioxide Emissions, g/MJ in Fuel

Fossil FuelsCorn FarmingEthanol PlantBOD Treatment

The CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were increased by 17% to account for their recovery,transport, and refinement activities

– p.28/70

Illegal Amazon Deforestation

Source: Greenpeace: 1645 hectares (Gleba do Pacoval area 100 km SE of Santarem)illegally logged to clear land for soya plantations

– p.29/70

Cumulative CO2 from Amazon

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040

10

20

30

40

50

60

70E

quiv

alen

t CO

2 Em

issi

ons,

Bill

ion

tons

Deforestation CO2 with peat

Deforestation CO2 w/o peat

Total US CO2 Emissions

Sources: Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE); ORNL; J. Germer andJ. Sauerborn, ENVI102, Table 3

– p.30/70

Claims of Plentiful Biomass#4: Fuels from Biomass Will Replace Transportation Fuels

“. . . An annual biomass supply of more than 1.3billion dry tons can be accomplished with relativelymodest changes in land use and agricultural andforestry practices” Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton Annual Supply

US Department of Energy Report, April 2005

“Or a 130 billion++ gallons per year!” Vinod Khosla, April 2006

(130 billion gallons of denatured ethanol = 87 billion gallons of gasoline. The US

uses 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year)

“Our goal is replacing 30% of transportation fuelswith biofuels by 2030,” DOE Secretary Bodman

– p.31/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?130 billion gallons of ethanol is 11.4 EJ per year

1.3 billion tons of dry mass is 22 EJ per year,year-after-year, for decades

Overall conversion efficiency, 11.4/22 = 0.52 is over 2times higher than the average energy efficiency ofthe corn-ethanol cycle

Current corn production is from best agricultural landin the US, and this efficiency can only go down, notup

Industrial cellulosic ethanol technology does not exist

Biomass gasification is in an early pilot stage

– p.32/70

FFV Chevy Tahoe Tested by CR

Source: NORM ALSTER On the Ethanol Bandwagon, Big Names and Big Risks, NYT,March 26, 2006

– p.33/70

Mileage = Fuel Energy

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 226

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

E10 gasoline mileage

E85

gas

ohol

mile

age

City

driv

ing

Hig

hway

150

mile

trip

Ove

rall

Calculated valuesConsumer Reports Tests

Under the CAFE formula a 2007 Tahoe truck would receive a CAFE rating of 21 mpg, buta 2007 Tahoe truck with an FFV engine would be rated at 35 mpg. Sources: ConsumerReports, Oct 2006; Patzek (2006)

– p.34/70

American Consumers Do Understand

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 802

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18T

oyot

a S

tock

/For

d S

tock

Crude Oil Price, $

Jan. 2001

Jul. 2006

Source: STEPHEN SCHORK, The Schork Report, www.EnergyMarketIntelligence.com– p.35/70

Transportation Fuels in US

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Cum

ulat

ive

Fre

e E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion,

EJ

Ghawar+Burgan

130 billion gallonsof ethanol

Alaska crude oil

Motor GasolineDistillate OilAviation FuelEthanol

Sources: US DOE EIA, Patzek (2004)Ghawar and Burgan are two most productive oilfields on the earth

– p.36/70

US Biomass Facts. . .

Brief Explanation

– p.37/70

All flesh is plants ∼Isaiah

Three hundred trout are needed to

support one man for a year. The trout, in

turn, must consume 90,000 frogs, that

must consume 27 million grasshoppers

that live off of 1 million kilograms of

grass.

G. TYLER MILLER, JR., Energetics, Kinetics and Life,Belmont, California, Wadsworth, 1971, p. 46

– p.38/70

Photosynthesis. . .

Respiration

H2O O2

Dark

Reactions

CO2 Glucose

CO2

Light

Reactions

NADPH+ATP NADP++ADP+PI

O2 H2O

Sun

Pho

tosy

nthe

sis

Ecosystem Productivity:

Gross Primary Production (GPP) =CO2 fixed by plants as glucose

Respiration (R)=CO2 released bymetabolic activity of plants Rp,animals Rh, and decomposers Rd

Net Primary Production, NPPNPP = GPP − Rp

Net Ecosystem Production

NEP = NPP − Rh − Rd

In natural ecosystems, NEP ≈ 0

Humans command ∼40 % of globalNPP, but return next to nothing

– p.39/70

Photosynthesis Uses Water

Rule of thumb: 200-1000 kg of water is transpired by leaves for 1 kg of fixed CO2

Source: A. M. HETHERINGTON & F. I. WOODWARD, The role of stomata in sensing anddriving environmental change, Nature, 424, 901 - 908

– p.40/70

Green Land Area in US

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Forest&Timber

Woodland

Pastureland

CropLand

Millions of hectares

HarvestedPasturedIdleFailed

72% of land area in US+Alaska+Hawaii. Sources: USDA, US Forest Service

830 million acres

– p.41/70

US Land Consumption3,000 acres of farm land are lost every day for“development”

Often the best farmland goes first

And the rate of loss is accelerating - 1.2 million acreswere lost annually from 1992-1997, a rate over 50%higher than 1982-1992

At current rate, 30 million acres of prime farmland willdisappear by 2030

Therefore, the per capita acres of farmland willdecrease from 1.3 acres in 2006 to 0.8-0.7 acres in2050, depending on the population growth

Sources: U.S. National Report on Population and the Environment, Center forEnvironment and Population, 2006, and references therein

– p.42/70

US Agriculture: Crop Areas

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Canola

Potatoes

Beans

Oats

Rice

Barley

Corn Silage

Sorghum

Cotton

Wheat

Hay

Corn

Soybean

Crop areas, 106 hectares

Source: USDA NASS, 2004. Total crop area 120 Mha (300 million acres)

– p.43/70

Crop→Plant Biomass ConversionOne needs

Harvest index

kg harvested seedskg biomass above ground

Root-to-shoot ratio

kg roots at harvestkg biomass above ground

Moisture contents of crops, above-ground biomass,and roots

High heating values of plant parts in MJ/kg drybiomass

– p.44/70

US Agriculture: Crop Energy

0 1 2 3 4 5

Canola

Beans

Oats

Potatoes

Cotton

Barley

Rice

Sorghum

Corn Silage

Hay

Wheat

Soybean

Corn

Crop energy, EJ (1018 J)

Sources: USDA NASS, Patzek (2006). Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9 quads)

– p.45/70

US Agriculture: Plant - Crop Energy

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Hay

Corn Silage

Beans

Canola

Oats

Potatoes

Cotton

Barley

Rice

Sorghum

Wheat

Soybean

Corn

Plant green mass energy, EJ (1018 J)

Total energy in above-ground biomass other than seed 6.35 EJ (6 quads)

– p.46/70

US Agriculture: Fertilizer Energy

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Cum

ulat

ive

Fre

e E

nerg

y C

onsu

mpt

ion,

EJ

NPK5 Largest Oilfields in CA in 2004

Sources: USDA NASS, Patzek (2004)Oilfields are: South Belridge, Cymric, Kern River, Midway Sunset, and Elk Hills

– p.47/70

US Agriculture: Power Flux

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Cotton

Beans

Hay

Canola

Oats

Wheat

Soybean

Barley

Sorghum

Rice

Corn

Potatoes

Corn Silage

Solar power sequestered in crops, W/m2

High heating power of cropsCrop mass−weighted average

Sources: USDA NASS, Patzek (2004). Mean crop power flux 0.37 W/m2

Each person in US uses 11,250 W of primary energy + Imported goods

– p.48/70

Net Production of Biomass in US

HydroBiomass

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Crude Oil

Primary Energy Use105 EJ/yr

Roots

Sparse VegetationOther

Forest&Timber

Pastureland

Crops, AG Biomass

∼Net Primary Productivity88 EJ/yr

Current corn ethanol

DOE Report

Food system

Sources: USDA, US Forest Service, Patzek, 2006– p.49/70

Energy Use in Agriculture

Commercial

Residential

Transportation

Industrial

Process+sell

Store+prepare

Transport

Agriculture

Primary Energy Use105 EJ/yr

Food Production22 EJ/yr

Sources: USDA; Miller, Environmental Science, 1995, p. 377– p.50/70

Land Use Myths#5: In 20-50 Years:

NRDC: 114 million acres for our transportation needs

Jim Woolsey/George Shultz estimate 60 million acres

Khosla: 55 million acres


Note the huge discrepancy between the estimatesabove, and the 850 - 1,500 million acres necessary toproduce 130 billion gallons of ethanol for more than 1year

– p.51/70

Cellulosic Ethanol Claims“. . . My message for you today is this: Cellulose ethanolis ready to go.

Based on Iogen’s experience with its demonstrationfacility, we are ready to break ground on a commercial-scale biorefinery in the summer of 2007, and plan to besupplying ethanol to commercial markets by 2009. Afterthe first plant is built, we anticipate the development of amulti-plant, multi-billion-gallon industry.”

Testimony of JEFF PASSMOREExecutive Vice President, Iogen CorporationBefore the Full Committee on Agriculture, June 29, 2006

– p.52/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?Production of cellulosic ethanol requires:

Steam pretreatment/ball milling/acid attack step toliberate cellulose and hemicelluloses from lignin,

Hydrolysis step, to convert the carbohydrates tosimpler sugars,

Yeast or bacterial fermentation step, to yield diluteethanol,

Ethanol separation step (distillation, drying)

After 50 years and $1 billion of R&D, only one pilotplant (Iogen Corp.) is operating, producing about 160thousand gallons of ethanol per year, 1/6 of itsplanned capacity

– p.53/70

Do These Claims Make Sense?In addition to cutting most living plants in the US, toobtain 130 billion gallons of ethanol by 2030

The Iogen plant must be scaled up 81,000 times.That’s 8,100,000%

In human history, such scale up has never occurredwithin 20 years, even if a good technology existed

We do not have a cellulosic technology to scale up

– p.54/70

Cellulosic Ethanol Facts. . .

Brief Explanation

– p.55/70

Biomass Composition. . .

0 20 40 60 80 100

Spruce wood

Pine wood

Birch wood

Poplar wood

Corn stover

Wheat straw

Switch grass

Percent dry mass

Cellulose Xylan Lignin Rest

Used by Iogen

Source: WISELOGEL, A., Biomass feedstock resources and composition, 1996– p.56/70

3 Billion Years of Cellulose

Crystalline cellulose β-glycosidic bonds

Cellulose makes cell walls in plants and is very tough to break

– p.57/70

FungusTrichoderma reeseiSome 92 enzymes can decompose cel-lulose to glucose, e.g.:

endo-1-β-1,4-glucanase (Cx)converts randomly amorphouscellulose to cellobiose

β-1,4-glucan cellobiohydrolase(CBH) removes cellobiose fromnon-reducing ends of cellulosechains

Cx + CBH + β-glucosidasehydrolyze crystalline cellulose

β-glucosidase hydrolyzescellobiose to glucose

– p.58/70

Hemicellulose. . .

In hardwoods and annual plants hemicellulose consists mostly of xylans andglucomannans

Xylans hydrolyze to 5-atom sugars, xyloses, that cannot be fermented to ethanolby standard yeast

Endoxylanase and endomannanase enzymes act synergistically to degradehemicellulose

Further hydrolysis is accomplished with β - xylosidase, mannosidase, andglucosidase

– p.59/70

Enzymes Are in Water. . .. . . They Are Slow to Attack Cellulose Fibers

– p.60/70

Increase Specific Surface Area. . .

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Ball milled, 96 hrBall milled, 12 hrBall milled, 24 hrBall milled, 48 hr

Microcrystalline cellulosePyrolysis in air, 170 deg CPyrolysis in He, 170 deg C

Standard Solka FlocGamma−radiation, 100 Mrad

Gamma−radiation, 5 MradGamma−radiation, 2 Mrad


1% NaOH, room temperatureGamma−radiation, 50 Mrad

1% NaOH, autclavedCMCS, room temperature

60% sulfuric acidGamma−radiation, 500 Mrad

Specific surface area, m2/g

Source: FAN, L. T. and LEE, Y.-H. and BEARDMORE, D. R., 1981

– p.61/70

Smash Cellulose Crystals. . .

0 20 40 60 80 100

Ball milled, 96 hrBall milled, 48 hrBall milled, 24 hrBall milled, 12 hr

Gamma−radiation, 500 MradGamma−radiation, 50 MradGamma−radiation, 2 Mrad

60% sulfuric acidPyrolysis in He, 170 deg CPyrolysis in air, 170 deg C

1% NaOH, room temperatureGamma−radiation, 20 Mrad

Gamma−radiation, 100 Mrad1% NaOH, autclaved


Standard Solka FlocCMCS, room temperatureMicrocrystalline cellulose

Crystallinity index, %

Source: FAN, L. T. and LEE, Y.-H. and BEARDMORE, D. R., 1981

– p.62/70

Accelerate Initial Rate. . .

1 2 3 4 5 61

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

Microcrystalline cellulose

Ball milled, 96 hr

Gamma−radiation, 500 Mrad

Measured hydrolysis acceleration after 8 hrs

Cal

cula

ted

hydr

olys

is a

ccel

erat

ion

afte

r 8

hrs

Source: FAN, L. T. and LEE, Y.-H. and BEARDMORE, D. R., 1981 – p.63/70

Iogen Ottawa Plant - 6.7 BOE/day

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16x 10

4

Days from April 1, 2004

Cum

ulat

ive

prod

uctio

n, g

al E

tOH

Iogen dataPatzek’s Prediction

Source: JEFF PASSMORE, Executive Vice President, Iogen Corporation, Celluloseethanol is ready to go, Presentation to Governor’s Ethanol Coalition & US EPAEnvironmental Meeting “Ethanol and the Environment,” Feb. 10, 2006 – p.64/70

Iogen Ottawa Plant - Specifications

One of two 52,000 gallon enzymefermenters. Source: MAURICE HLADIK,Director of Marketing, Iogen Corp.

Deduced production specification:

158,000 gallons/year ofanhydrous ethanol

10 bbl EtOH/day = 6.7 bbl ofequivalent gasoline/day

2 × 52,000 = 104,000 gallons offermentation volume

Ratio of 1.5 gallon EtOH/gallonfermenter-year

Assume 7-day batches + 2-daycleanups

Then there is 3.7% of alcohol inwater in a batch

– p.65/70

Iogen Ottawa Plant - Steam

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160

5

10

15

20

25

30

Volume % of Ethanol in Water

Kgs

of S

team

/Gal

lon

Anh

ydro

us E

tOH

TheoreticalPracticalIogen Demand

Source: K. A. JACQUES et al., The Alcohol Textbook, Nottingham University Press; 4threvised edition (October 15, 2003)

– p.66/70

Iogen Ottawa Plant - SummaryOne would need 67,000 Iogen Ottawa plants toreplace petroleum refineries in Texas alone

Industrial cellulosic ethanol technology does not exist

Iogen’s Ottawa plant is a tiny, inefficient facility thatproduces 6.7 barrels of gasoline equivalent percalendar day with

Low ethanol yieldsDilute ethanol solutions after each batchLack of scalability

There are important physical reasons for this failure:slow, inefficient cellulose hydrolysis despite costlypreprocessing, inefficient fermentation of pentoses,and distillation of dilute beer

– p.67/70

Termite-Bacteria Symbiosis

<50 micron-wood particles

300 microns

Trichonympha bacterium. In the lower portion of the cell, you can see wood particlesbeing digested. Source: www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/protista/termiteprotists.html

– p.68/70

Fossil Energy Cost of Biodiesel

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Agriculture

Transport to crusher

Crushing

Oil Transport

Conversion

Distribution

Fossil energy inputs, MJ/kg finished biodiesel

NREL (1998)PNAS (2006)

Biodiesel has 40 MJ/kg of energy. Corrected NREL estimates fossil energy inputs is 52MJ/kg, and uncorrected PNAS estimate is 34 MJ/kg

– p.69/70

Bottom Line. . .Another problem with subsidies. . . is that they simplymisinform us about the cost of our behavior. . . . Thesubsidy certainly does a lot of good for the folks who sellethanol, especially agribusiness giants, such as ArcherDaniels Midland, who are nicely situated to lobbyCongress for more subsidies. Most people think it iswrong for the government to lie to its citizens, but there’sno other way to portray ethanol subsidies: Yourgovernment, by distorting the price you pay so it doesn’treflect real costs, is lying to you.Subsidies are the wrong road to biofuels, Professor Michael O’Hare, Goldman School ofPublic Policy at UC Berkeley, San Francisco Chronicle, 7/30/2006

– p.70/70

the biofuel myths and factsfeb. 2, 2006, presentation at 3m in maplewood, minn. – p.10/70....

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