1

The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study

Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts

2

Outline

The CEDSS model

Stakeholder Advisory Group input

Demonstration of the CEDSS model

Data sources, refining the model

Future scenarios for CEDSS

3

The CEDSS ModelCommunity Energy Demand Social Simulator

Households located in a street-network, making decisions about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances and equipment.

Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and energy-related equipment, is tracked over time.

Data for runs of the model covering the period 2000-2010 is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and from the first (2010) GILDED survey.

Runs covering the period 2010-2050 are in preparation.

4

Stakeholder Advisory Group InputDemo of prototype model followed by Knowledge Elicitation Exercise:

Post-it session

Discussion of post-its Opportunity to add new

post-its

Index card sorting exercise 1: Categories that made sense

to participants

Index card sorting exercise 2: Ontological categories

predefined by us Entities Processes Relationships Attributes

“Using the picture as a guide, identify anything associated with household energy

use or household energy activities”

April 2010 SAG meeting

5

Index Card Sorting 1

6

Index Card Sorting 2

7

Ontology from the index cards

8

Ontology from another meeting in Budapest

9

Demonstration of the CEDSS model

10

Refining the CEDSS Model

Input dataGILDEDsurvey

ONSstatistics

DECCstatistics

SG statistics

Argoscatalogues

Etc.

Calibrationdata

Validationdata

CEDSS

Freeparameters

Results

Comparison

Comparison

CEDSS Future Scenarios

Input data

Peer-reviewedpapers (appliancePrices, efficiency)

CEDSS

Freeparameters

Results

PolicyImplications

OECD/IEAProjections(energy savings)

EC scenarios (fuel prices)

GILDED survey(starting point)