the challenge of achieving policy impact
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The Challenge of achieving policy impact. Nathanael Goldberg, Policy Director. IPA has over 300 projects underway. What can go wrong? Taxonomy of policy failures. Asking the wrong questions (What are the right questions?) Losing control of the impact message Staying ahead of scale-up - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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THE CHALLENGE OF ACHIEVING POLICY
IMPACT
Nathanael Goldberg, Policy Director
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IPA has over 300 projects underway
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What can go wrong? Taxonomy of policy failures Asking the wrong questions
(What are the right questions?) Losing control of the impact
message Staying ahead of scale-up
Effective project, no scale-up Not-so effective project, no
scale-down Unknown impact, scaling
anyway Exogenous shocks
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Microcredit: evidence from RCTs
FMB: Manila, Philippines (Karlan and Zinman 2010) Profits increase, but only for men Effects stronger for higher-income entrepreneurs Businesses shed employees
Spandana: urban Hyderabad, India (Banerjee et al 2010) 1 in 5 new loans associated with opening business No measured increase in household expenditures
Morocco (Crepon et al 2011) No increase in consumption, but switch to self-
employment
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Taking a step back: Returns to Capital
Sri Lanka (de Mel et al 2008) Men earn high returns to capital,
but women do not Ghana (Fafchamps et al 2011)
In-kind or cash grants to men: significant returns
Cash grants to women: no return In-kind grants (inventory or
equipment) to women: significant returns
But, women with below-average profits (around $1 a day) saw no benefit from either form of grant
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We can’t always write the headlines
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Nor the anecdotes…After her husband died, Parwali had to work 14 hours a day in her vegetable stand to support two children – and she was still only bringing home $1 a day. Living in Bihar, Parwali’s life of hard work and poverty seemed inescapable. But a series of microloans changed everything.Today, four loans and two years later, Parwali’s business is growing, and with more income, she is now able to feed her family better, more nutritious food.
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Policy impact?
Source: CGAP
Investment Growth (US$ billions)
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More recent
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Ultra-Poor Graduation Pilots Holistic set of services for those too poor for traditional
microfinance Designed to move the ultra poor out of extreme poverty Randomized evaluations in 7 countries
Even when you think you’ve got it perfect…
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Sometimes the world moves on without you
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IPA’s Proven Impact Initiative
Established to promote, finance, strengthen and expand the anti-poverty programs that have been proven through rigorous experimentation
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“Tested and Proven” Interventions
Commitment Savings School-based
Deworming Chlorine Dispensers Remedial Education Investment Vouchers
“Promising” Interventions: Reminders to Save Free Bednets Incentives for Vaccines
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What’s our scorecard? Commitment Savings School-based Deworming Chlorine Dispensers Remedial Education Investment Vouchers
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Deworming: big scale-up
2011: 17 million school-age children in all 38 districts were treated for parasitic worms by the Government of Bihar
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Dispensers: doing it ourselves 2300 dispensers reaching 450,000
people But the need is huge
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Remedial education
Some progress, but lots of nudging required
Scale-up and evaluation underway in Ghana
Contract teachers as implemented by NGO and by government in Kenya
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Failure to scale Commitment Savings and Investment
Vouchers: both huge impacts, little progress on scaling
Commitment savings: Philippines: savings balances up 80%/300% Malawi: 72% higher use of fertilizer, 61%
higher crop sales at harvest, and 25% more spending on food post-harvest
Fertilizer vouchers Pre-payment as effective as a last-minute
50% subsidy in promoting fertilizer adoption
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DrumNet Horticultural export and
cashless micro-credit program linking smallholder farmers to commercial banks, retail providers of farm inputs, transportation services, and exporters.
Impact: statistically and economically significant increase for first-time growers of export-oriented crops.
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Coda One year after the
evaluation ended, the export firm that had been buying the horticulture stopped because of lack of compliance with European export requirements
Farmers returned to growing local crops