the changing energy market · •u.s. reversing 40 years of oil production declines • oil prices...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE CHANGING ENERGY MARKET DUE TO THE GROWTH OF PRODUCTION FROM SHALE PLAYS IN THE US AND POTENTIAL OUTSIDE US
Mark Peters Publisher Oil & Gas Financial Journal [email protected] www.ogfj.com
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• Tight Oil and Gas • Climate Change • Energy Nationalism • Growth in World Population • EuroZone
• China and India • Energy Security • Overcapacity • Game Changer: Shale • The “Golden Age” of Gas
FACTORS SHAPING ENERGY EXPANSION FOR THE NEXT DECADE:
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QUICK LOOK AT OIL PRICES
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CRUDE PRODUCTION BUCKING 40 YEAR TREND
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• U.S. Reversing 40 Years of oil production declines • Oil Prices appear to be range-bound • U.S. natural gas poised for long-term recovery • Recent prediction that U.S. will surpass Saudi
Arabia as largest oil producer by IEA • U.S. already surpassed Russia as largest gas
producer • Potential for U.S. to become energy independent • Implications go way beyond energy
CHANGES IN US OIL & GAS
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US DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED LIQUIDS DECLINES
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US PRODUCTION OF CRUDE INCREASES DUE TO TIGHT FORMATIONS (SHALE)
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NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION GROWS AND US BECOMES NET EXPORTER
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SHALE GAS LEADS PRODUCTION INCREASE
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SHALE OIL AND GAS IS GLOBAL
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CO2 EMISSIONS DECLINE
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Source: Cagle Cartoons, Week of June 17-23, 2012
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INDUSTRY TAX RATES
Source: CEE, M.M. Foss, 9/25/2012
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• Economic Nationalism • Growth in Population • Consumption
CHINA & INDIA
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ENERGY SECURITY
Source: T. Boone Pickens, March 2012
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OVERCAPACITY
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“CNG IN A BOX” TM
Source: GE, AP file photo/Douglas C. Pizac
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RE-FUELING LOCATIONS IN THE U.S.
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THE SEVEN BIG SHALES
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Journal, Warlick International Article, August 2012
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SHALE PLAYS ARE MORE PRODUCTIVE
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A NATURAL GAS SUPER SPIKE 2016?
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
Average Annual Industrial Demand
Source: Energy Information Administration May 2012 & RJ Estimates
*Includes LNG export plants operational
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• More refining capacity added to handle increased oil production and potential for export
• Additional pipelines and gas processing facilities will be needed to handle changes in the flow of raw material and finished products
• Potential GTL and LNG export from U.S. • Petrochemical facilities upgraded and expanded and
potential for new plants in U.S. Northeast • US economy will benefit from lowered trade deficit and
increase in manufacturing base • US $ Goes Higher • All the above will require more valves
INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES:
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THE CHANGING ENERGY MARKET DUE TO THE GROWTH OF PRODUCTION FROM SHALE PLAYS IN THE US AND POTENTIAL OUTSIDE US
Mark Peters Publisher Oil & Gas Financial Journal [email protected] www.ogfj.com