the chicken and the egg; workforce development and economic competitiveness erik payne butler human...
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The Chicken and the Egg; Workforce Development and Economic Competitiveness
Erik Payne ButlerHuman Investment Institute
E&E BureauRegional Competitiveness Conference
Kiev, UkraineJune, 2009
Universal Themes in Workforce Development
Supply and Demand Dynamics-- employers need workers
-- people need skills -- communities/labor markets need the
match to work Equity, access and cost – skills,
competencies and systems Mutual dissatisfaction, no matter the
economy The BIG Questions about 25 year-olds
The Conventional View of The Factors of Competitiveness
Enablers
Finance
Human Resources
Infrastructure
Incentives
Enterprisesfarms, manufacturers, and service providers of all
types & sizes: micro, small, medium, large
Growth in Productivity, Output, & Incomes
DriversMicro Policies & Governance
property rights, enforcement of
contracts / rule of law, economy-wide and sector-specific
policies & regulations, trade
policies . . .
Macro Policies &
Governancetaxation, budget
formulation & execution, deficit control, monetary policy, exchange
rates . . .
Incentives Inputs
Impact
Common (though not universal) themes in the Region
Young populations High basic literacy Relatively small formal employment
sector Large (though differentiated) grey
economy Rigid/traditional educational systems Little practical experience offered Europe a looming presence
Insights from Recent Assessments
Two Assessments in 2009: Macedonia and Kosovo
“Taking Steps toward a 21st Century Workforce in Macedonia”
“A Modern Workforce Development System is Key to Kosovo’s Growth”
Common themes from Macedonia and Kosovo
Age matters Poverty is symptom and cause of failures Projecting labor supply and demand is an uneven
art, and not yet a science Grey market inhibits developing a formal workforce
development system Where demand is weak, supply also lags behind Education matters Universal criticism of the lack of practical education
and soft skills
Age matters: Kosovo and Macedonia
Age still matters: Albania and Bulgaria
Poverty snapshot: cause and symptom
2008 Per Capita / GDP (PPP) in billions
Source: CIA World Factbook (2008)
*Estimate **Large informal sector
Kosovo $2,300* $5.00**
Albania $6,400 $23.07**
Bosnia and Herzegovina
$6,600 $30.49**
Serbia $8,200 $83.14
Macedonia $9,200 $18.97**
Montenegro $10,600 $7.16
Croatia $16,900 $75.93
Facts, perceptions and predictions
Demand/supply interplay: demand low = supply systems complacent
Projecting supply and demand: the skills gap analysis opportunity
The “grey market”: livelihood reality or inhibiting factor
Education: resource or drag Adapting the three big questions
The three big questions for 25 year-olds
CAN YOU READ
DID YOU GRADUATE
HAVE YOU WORKED
The three big (Workforce) questions for firms and sectors?
Can you grow (modernize) with existing skill profiles?
Do you have a pipeline of skilled workers?
How and when will your skill needs change over time?
Supply, Demand, and the beginnings of systems in Macedonia and Kosovo: Recommendations
from the assessments
Recommendation (Beneficiary) categories
Future workers The presently unemployed Employed but under-skilled Policy and system improvement Capacity-building
Macedonia Recommendations
One Stop career centers
Municipal “supply-side” model-building
Supporting entrepreneurship and enterprise development
The Green Jobs Corps program
The Rising Generation Initiative
Kosovo Recommendations Public-private oversight for system development
Annual Skills Gap Survey of Kosovo employers
Municipally-based Career Learning Centers,
Skills training and certification for unemployed and underemployed beneficiaries
Entrepreneurship training and business growth;