the colorado drought 2001-2003: a growing concern
DESCRIPTION
The Colorado Drought 2001-2003: A Growing Concern. Roger Pielke, Sr. and Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu. 2002 Drought History in Colorado – A Brief Summary. Examples of Droughts. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Colorado Drought The Colorado Drought 2001-2003: 2001-2003:
A Growing ConcernA Growing Concern
Roger Pielke, Sr. and Nolan Roger Pielke, Sr. and Nolan DoeskenDoesken
Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterPrepared by Tara Green and Odie BlissPrepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss
http://climate.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
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2002 Drought History in 2002 Drought History in Colorado – A Brief SummaryColorado – A Brief Summary
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Examples of DroughtsExamples of Droughts
Snow does not fall in the mountains Snow does not fall in the mountains until late Januaryuntil late January
It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in Augustoccur in eastern Colorado in August
The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for the next five yearsthe next five years
Colorado’s mountains have 90% of Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years.average snow for the next 20 years.
Snow does not fall in the mountains Snow does not fall in the mountains until late Januaryuntil late January
It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in Augustoccur in eastern Colorado in August
The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for the next five yearsthe next five years
Colorado’s mountains have 90% of Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years.average snow for the next 20 years.
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April 1 SnowpackApril 1 Snowpack
APRIL 1 SNOWPACK COLORADO STATEWIDE
95
109
119
104
87
109106
130
99
46
126
148146
59
114120
127
104104
97
85 87
74
91 93
126
84
105
112 114
89
65
9087
53
83
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ave
rag
e
(March 2003)
APRIL 1 SNOWPACK COLORADO STATEWIDE
95
109
119
104
87
109106
130
99
46
126
148146
59
114120
127
104104
97
85 87
74
91 93
126
84
105
112 114
89
65
9087
53
83
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ave
rag
e
(March 2003)
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Drought Status on April 1, Drought Status on April 1, 20022002
Entire State DryEntire State Dry Statewide SnowpackStatewide Snowpack
– 53% of Average53% of Average
Bad, but not as bad as 1977Bad, but not as bad as 1977 Optimism for a wet spring – Optimism for a wet spring –
especially in Northern Coloradoespecially in Northern Colorado
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But then came AprilBut then came April
Very warm – especially Very warm – especially in Mountainsin Mountains
Very DryVery Dry Rapid SnowmeltRapid Snowmelt Little RunoffLittle Runoff
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May also failed usMay also failed us
Only one significant stormOnly one significant storm High evaporation ratesHigh evaporation rates Severe drought arrived !!Severe drought arrived !!
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June 2002June 2002 Some heavy rains on plains but little plant Some heavy rains on plains but little plant
growthgrowth Evaporation rates very high Evaporation rates very high Many grass firesMany grass fires Even when some heavy rains did comeEven when some heavy rains did come
to eastern Colorado in early June, the ground to eastern Colorado in early June, the ground was so hard, the vegetation on grazed lands was was so hard, the vegetation on grazed lands was so short and the rains fell for such a short period so short and the rains fell for such a short period of time, that little of the moisture soaked in – of time, that little of the moisture soaked in – and vegetation remained parched. Grass fires and vegetation remained parched. Grass fires popped up all over eastern Colorado, keeping popped up all over eastern Colorado, keeping local fire fighters on their toes.local fire fighters on their toes.
Extreme Drought in MountainsExtreme Drought in Mountains Forest Fires explodedForest Fires exploded
Some heavy rains on plains but little plant Some heavy rains on plains but little plant growthgrowth
Evaporation rates very high Evaporation rates very high Many grass firesMany grass fires Even when some heavy rains did comeEven when some heavy rains did come
to eastern Colorado in early June, the ground to eastern Colorado in early June, the ground was so hard, the vegetation on grazed lands was was so hard, the vegetation on grazed lands was so short and the rains fell for such a short period so short and the rains fell for such a short period of time, that little of the moisture soaked in – of time, that little of the moisture soaked in – and vegetation remained parched. Grass fires and vegetation remained parched. Grass fires popped up all over eastern Colorado, keeping popped up all over eastern Colorado, keeping local fire fighters on their toes.local fire fighters on their toes.
Extreme Drought in MountainsExtreme Drought in Mountains Forest Fires explodedForest Fires exploded
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By late June 2002By late June 2002
Raging wildfiresRaging wildfires Extreme low streamflowsExtreme low streamflows Rapidly depleted reservoirsRapidly depleted reservoirs Severe agricultural impactsSevere agricultural impacts
– WheatWheat– CattleCattle– Irrigated crops in Irrigated crops in
jeopardyjeopardy Intense heatIntense heat Urban water restrictionsUrban water restrictions
Raging wildfiresRaging wildfires Extreme low streamflowsExtreme low streamflows Rapidly depleted reservoirsRapidly depleted reservoirs Severe agricultural impactsSevere agricultural impacts
– WheatWheat– CattleCattle– Irrigated crops in Irrigated crops in
jeopardyjeopardy Intense heatIntense heat Urban water restrictionsUrban water restrictions
Hayman FireLargest in Recent History
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Widespread DroughtWidespread Drought
By late July By late July 2002, Colorado 2002, Colorado near epicenter near epicenter of extensive of extensive regional droughtregional drought
Parts of nearly Parts of nearly every state every state experiencing experiencing droughtdrought
By late July By late July 2002, Colorado 2002, Colorado near epicenter near epicenter of extensive of extensive regional droughtregional drought
Parts of nearly Parts of nearly every state every state experiencing experiencing droughtdrought
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August 2002 Pattern August 2002 Pattern ChangesChanges
More extreme heat More extreme heat earlyearly
Another wildfire flare Another wildfire flare upup
Severe storms late in Severe storms late in AugustAugust
Real relief in portions Real relief in portions of the Eastern Plainsof the Eastern Plains
But most of Colorado But most of Colorado still in extreme still in extreme droughtdrought
More extreme heat More extreme heat earlyearly
Another wildfire flare Another wildfire flare upup
Severe storms late in Severe storms late in AugustAugust
Real relief in portions Real relief in portions of the Eastern Plainsof the Eastern Plains
But most of Colorado But most of Colorado still in extreme still in extreme droughtdrought
Steamboat Springs FirePhoto from Steamboat Springs Fire Department
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The 1977 DroughtThe 1977 Drought
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Total Precipitation AnalysisTotal Precipitation AnalysisSeptember 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by September 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by
StationStation
Climatic Stations Year of Record Rank Amount of Precipitation
Grand Lake 1 NW 1940-2002 1 12.55
Taylor Park 1941-2002 1 10.42
Grand Junction WSO A 1892-2002 8 5.54
Meeker 1891-2002 7 10.37
Montrose No. 2 1896-2002 3 5.83
Mesa Verde NP 1923-2002 1 7.43
Del Norte 2 E 1940-2002 1 3.19
Center 4 SSW 1891-2002 1 2.44
Colorado Springs WSO 1892-2002 1 6.5
Pueblo WSO 1891-2002 1 3.8
Rocky Ford 2 SE 1892-2002 1 3.62
Cheyenne Wells 1897-2002 4 9.16
Akron 4 E 1905-2002 1 9.4
Leroy 7 WSW 1891-2002 3 10.58
Kassler 1899-2002 8 12.56
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September 2002 September 2002 Wet Weather at LastWet Weather at Last
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Colorado Water Year 2002Colorado Water Year 2002 (Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002) (Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002)
Precipitation % of Average for the 1961-1990 Precipitation % of Average for the 1961-1990 AveragesAverages
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Where are we now?Where are we now?
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Through 1999
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Through 1999
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22Source: Source: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/snotelbasin
Colorado’s River Basin Snow Colorado’s River Basin Snow Availability as of March 17, Availability as of March 17,
20032003
23Need to update?
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Cheesman2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MAR
APRM
AYJU
NJU
LAUG
SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ato
n (
Inc
he
s)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1970
Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1904 - 2002
2003 Water Year
Cheesman2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MAR
APRM
AYJU
NJU
LAUG
SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ato
n (
Inc
he
s)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1970
Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1904 - 2002
2003 Water Year
25
Cheyenne Wells2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1909
Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002
2003 Water Year
Cheyenne Wells2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1909
Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002
2003 Water Year
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Boulder 2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MARAPR
MAYJU
NJU
LAUG
SEP
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
2003 Water Year
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1995
Min Year - 1966
Period of Record Average - 1894-2002
2002 Water Year
Boulder 2003 Water Year (October 2002-February 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCTNOV
DECJA
NFEB
MARAPR
MAYJU
NJU
LAUG
SEP
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
2003 Water Year
30 Year Averages-1971-2000
Max Year - 1995
Min Year - 1966
Period of Record Average - 1894-2002
2002 Water Year
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3 Month SPI3 Month SPI
28
12 Month SPI12 Month SPI
29
48 Month SPI48 Month SPI
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Colorado NeedsColorado Needs
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of historical droughts?historical droughts?
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of paleo-droughts?paleo-droughts?
What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?
How can we make Colorado more How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts?resilient to droughts?
What are the definitions of the multi-What are the definitions of the multi-dimensional character of droughts. dimensional character of droughts.
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of historical droughts?historical droughts?
What would be the impact today of What would be the impact today of paleo-droughts?paleo-droughts?
What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?weather reoccurred for 2002-2003?
How can we make Colorado more How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts?resilient to droughts?
What are the definitions of the multi-What are the definitions of the multi-dimensional character of droughts. dimensional character of droughts.
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment
A A vulnerabilityvulnerability assessment of assessment of risk to climate and other risk to climate and other environmental stress is, environmental stress is, therefore, more appropriate as therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate of possible future climate conditions.conditions.
A A vulnerabilityvulnerability assessment of assessment of risk to climate and other risk to climate and other environmental stress is, environmental stress is, therefore, more appropriate as therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate of possible future climate conditions.conditions.
32Image by Jan Null, CCM, http://ggweather.com/winter0203.htm
33Image by Jan Null, CCM, http://ggweather.com/winter0203.htm
34Image by Jan Null, CCM, http://ggweather.com/winter0203.htm
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In ConclusionIn Conclusion
Sept 1, 2001 to August Sept 1, 2001 to August 30,2002 was the driest 30,2002 was the driest for that period at most for that period at most climate observing sites in climate observing sites in Colorado.Colorado.
Over a several year time Over a several year time period, however, the period, however, the current drought is a current drought is a garden variety drought. garden variety drought. It is not exceptional.It is not exceptional.
Weather modification will Weather modification will not break a drought. At not break a drought. At best, it slightly increases best, it slightly increases snowpack.snowpack.
Sept 1, 2001 to August Sept 1, 2001 to August 30,2002 was the driest 30,2002 was the driest for that period at most for that period at most climate observing sites in climate observing sites in Colorado.Colorado.
Over a several year time Over a several year time period, however, the period, however, the current drought is a current drought is a garden variety drought. garden variety drought. It is not exceptional.It is not exceptional.
Weather modification will Weather modification will not break a drought. At not break a drought. At best, it slightly increases best, it slightly increases snowpack.snowpack.
The current drought is not The current drought is not a consequence of a a consequence of a warmer atmosphere. In warmer atmosphere. In fact, the Earth's fact, the Earth's atmosphere is no warmer atmosphere is no warmer today than it was in 1979.today than it was in 1979.
Models which have been Models which have been used to predict climate a used to predict climate a year or more in the future year or more in the future have demonstrated no skill have demonstrated no skill in forecast ability.in forecast ability.
We should adopt We should adopt vulnerability assessments vulnerability assessments as the preferred paradigm, as the preferred paradigm, rather than primarily rather than primarily focusing financial focusing financial resources on prediction.resources on prediction.
The current drought is not The current drought is not a consequence of a a consequence of a warmer atmosphere. In warmer atmosphere. In fact, the Earth's fact, the Earth's atmosphere is no warmer atmosphere is no warmer today than it was in 1979.today than it was in 1979.
Models which have been Models which have been used to predict climate a used to predict climate a year or more in the future year or more in the future have demonstrated no skill have demonstrated no skill in forecast ability.in forecast ability.
We should adopt We should adopt vulnerability assessments vulnerability assessments as the preferred paradigm, as the preferred paradigm, rather than primarily rather than primarily focusing financial focusing financial resources on prediction.resources on prediction.
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Estimate of actual climate system heat change from the early 1950s-1995 is 0.3 Watts Estimate of actual climate system heat change from the early 1950s-1995 is 0.3 Watts per meter squared (Pielke 2003)per meter squared (Pielke 2003) based on ocean heat storage changes (Levitus et al. based on ocean heat storage changes (Levitus et al. 2000). Figure from Houghton et al. Eds., 2001: Summary for Policymakers: 2000). Figure from Houghton et al. Eds., 2001: Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.chhttp://www.ipcc.ch
The Actual Global Heat Change in The Actual Global Heat Change in the Last 50 Years is Relatively Smallthe Last 50 Years is Relatively Small
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El NiEl Niñño has a major effect on weather thousands of kilometers o has a major effect on weather thousands of kilometers from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shabbar et al. 1997).from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shabbar et al. 1997).
The presence of warm SSTs permit thunderstorms to occur which The presence of warm SSTs permit thunderstorms to occur which otherwise would not have occurred.otherwise would not have occurred.
These thunderstorms export vast amounts of heat, moisture, and These thunderstorms export vast amounts of heat, moisture, and kinetic energy to the middle and higher latitudes, which alter the kinetic energy to the middle and higher latitudes, which alter the ridge and trough patterns associated with the polar jet stream ridge and trough patterns associated with the polar jet stream (Hou 1998).(Hou 1998).
El NiEl Niñños have such a major effect on weather due to their large os have such a major effect on weather due to their large magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence (Wu and magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence (Wu and Newell 1998).Newell 1998).
Tropical thunderstorms are referred to as “hot towers” and are Tropical thunderstorms are referred to as “hot towers” and are the conduit to higher latitudes as part of the Hadley circulations the conduit to higher latitudes as part of the Hadley circulations (Riehl and Malkus 1958; Riehl and Simpson 1979).(Riehl and Malkus 1958; Riehl and Simpson 1979).
Most thunderstorms occur over tropical and midlatitude land Most thunderstorms occur over tropical and midlatitude land masses and in the warm season (Lyons 1999; Rosenfeld 2000).masses and in the warm season (Lyons 1999; Rosenfeld 2000).
Therefore, the earth’s climate system must also be sensitive Therefore, the earth’s climate system must also be sensitive to land-use change in those regions where thunderstorms to land-use change in those regions where thunderstorms occur.occur.
El NiEl Niñño has a major effect on weather thousands of kilometers o has a major effect on weather thousands of kilometers from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shabbar et al. 1997).from the tropical Pacific Ocean (Shabbar et al. 1997).
The presence of warm SSTs permit thunderstorms to occur which The presence of warm SSTs permit thunderstorms to occur which otherwise would not have occurred.otherwise would not have occurred.
These thunderstorms export vast amounts of heat, moisture, and These thunderstorms export vast amounts of heat, moisture, and kinetic energy to the middle and higher latitudes, which alter the kinetic energy to the middle and higher latitudes, which alter the ridge and trough patterns associated with the polar jet stream ridge and trough patterns associated with the polar jet stream (Hou 1998).(Hou 1998).
El NiEl Niñños have such a major effect on weather due to their large os have such a major effect on weather due to their large magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence (Wu and magnitude, long persistence, and spatial coherence (Wu and Newell 1998).Newell 1998).
Tropical thunderstorms are referred to as “hot towers” and are Tropical thunderstorms are referred to as “hot towers” and are the conduit to higher latitudes as part of the Hadley circulations the conduit to higher latitudes as part of the Hadley circulations (Riehl and Malkus 1958; Riehl and Simpson 1979).(Riehl and Malkus 1958; Riehl and Simpson 1979).
Most thunderstorms occur over tropical and midlatitude land Most thunderstorms occur over tropical and midlatitude land masses and in the warm season (Lyons 1999; Rosenfeld 2000).masses and in the warm season (Lyons 1999; Rosenfeld 2000).
Therefore, the earth’s climate system must also be sensitive Therefore, the earth’s climate system must also be sensitive to land-use change in those regions where thunderstorms to land-use change in those regions where thunderstorms occur.occur.
Effect of the Spatial Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of Surface Heating Redistribution of Surface Heating
(El Ni(El Niñño)o)
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Global-Averaged Absolute Value Difference Global-Averaged Absolute Value Difference of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes Averaged of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes Averaged
for 12 Januaries: El Nifor 12 Januaries: El Niñño Teleconnectiono Teleconnection
2.4 Watts m2.4 Watts m-2-2JanuaryJanuaryAverage Sensible Average Sensible
Heat FluxHeat Flux
6.1 Watts m6.1 Watts m-2-2JanuaryJanuaryAverage Latent Average Latent
Heat FluxHeat Flux
39From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme IssuePhil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719., 360, 1705-1719.
Effect of the Spatial Redistribution Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of Surface Heating (Land-Use of Surface Heating (Land-Use
Change)Change)
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From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the and S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy beyond the radiative effect of climate system: Relevance to climate change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme IssuePhil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719., 360, 1705-1719.
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From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme IssuePhil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-, 360, 1705-1719.1719.
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From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: From: Pielke Sr., R.A., G. Marland, R.A. Betts, T.N. Chase, J.L. Eastman, J.O. Niles, D. Niyogi, and S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme IssuePhil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719., 360, 1705-1719.
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Redistribution of Heat Due to the Human Redistribution of Heat Due to the Human Disturbance of the Earth’s Climate Disturbance of the Earth’s Climate
SystemSystem
Globally-Average Absolute Value of Sensible Globally-Average Absolute Value of Sensible Heat Plus Latent HeatHeat Plus Latent Heat
8.90 Watts m8.90 Watts m-2-2
9.47 Watts m9.47 Watts m-2-2
JulyJuly
JanuaryJanuaryTeleconnectionTeleconnection
ss
IncludedIncluded
1.08 Watts m1.08 Watts m-2-2
0.7 Watts m0.7 Watts m-2-2
JulyJuly
JanuaryJanuaryOnly Where Only Where Land Use Land Use OccurredOccurred
Global redistribution of heat is on the same order as an El Niño.
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Estimate of actual climate system heat change from the early 1950s-1995 is 0.3 Watts per meter Estimate of actual climate system heat change from the early 1950s-1995 is 0.3 Watts per meter squared (Pielke 2003)squared (Pielke 2003) based on ocean heat storage changes (Levitus et al. 2000). Figure from based on ocean heat storage changes (Levitus et al. 2000). Figure from Houghton et al. Eds., 2001: Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.chHoughton et al. Eds., 2001: Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch
The Actual Global Heat Change The Actual Global Heat Change in the Last 50 Years is in the Last 50 Years is
Relatively SmallRelatively Small
45Adapted from P. Kabat (personal communication, 1999). From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial Adapted from P. Kabat (personal communication, 1999). From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. GeophysRev. Geophys., 39,151-., 39,151-177.177.
Alteration in Surface Water Fluxes Alteration in Surface Water Fluxes Associated With Land-Use ChangeAssociated With Land-Use Change
46From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. GeophysRev. Geophys., 39,151-177.., 39,151-177.
Alteration of Thermodynamic Profile Alteration of Thermodynamic Profile Associated with Land-Use ChangeAssociated with Land-Use Change
47From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. GeophysRev. Geophys., 39,151-177.., 39,151-177.
Effect of Land-Use Change on Deep Effect of Land-Use Change on Deep Cumulonimbus ConvectionCumulonimbus Convection
48From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. GeophysRev. Geophys., 39,151-., 39,151-177.177.
Smaller-Scale Spatial Variations in Smaller-Scale Spatial Variations in Landscape Change Also Affect the Water Landscape Change Also Affect the Water
CycleCycle
49From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. GeophysRev. Geophys., 39,151-., 39,151-177.177.
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SummarySummary
Landscape change and vegetation Landscape change and vegetation dynamics both result in a significant dynamics both result in a significant global redistribution of heat and water global redistribution of heat and water within the global climate system.within the global climate system.
This redistribution of heat and water This redistribution of heat and water has already had an effect on the global has already had an effect on the global climate system this is at least as large climate system this is at least as large as the IPCC and National Assessment as the IPCC and National Assessment have attributed to the radiative effect have attributed to the radiative effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide.of a doubling of carbon dioxide.
Landscape change and vegetation Landscape change and vegetation dynamics both result in a significant dynamics both result in a significant global redistribution of heat and water global redistribution of heat and water within the global climate system.within the global climate system.
This redistribution of heat and water This redistribution of heat and water has already had an effect on the global has already had an effect on the global climate system this is at least as large climate system this is at least as large as the IPCC and National Assessment as the IPCC and National Assessment have attributed to the radiative effect have attributed to the radiative effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide.of a doubling of carbon dioxide.
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Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University
Data and Power Point Presentations Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloadingavailable for downloading
http://climate.atmos.colostate.http://climate.atmos.colostate.eduedu– click on “Drought” click on “Drought” – then click on “Presentations”then click on “Presentations”
Data and Power Point Presentations Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloadingavailable for downloading
http://climate.atmos.colostate.http://climate.atmos.colostate.eduedu– click on “Drought” click on “Drought” – then click on “Presentations”then click on “Presentations”
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The modeling approach used a risk analysis The modeling approach used a risk analysis for irrigation requirements of crops….One for irrigation requirements of crops….One could model the risk of water shortage for could model the risk of water shortage for say a particular area, then perform say a particular area, then perform scenarios such as what is the economic scenarios such as what is the economic impact (= yield) on Crop A if the water impact (= yield) on Crop A if the water supply is at 70% of average, 50% of supply is at 70% of average, 50% of average, etc. The next question would be average, etc. The next question would be what is the impact on Crop B at those water what is the impact on Crop B at those water supplies, and at what point should a supplies, and at what point should a producer switch his/her allocation from Crop producer switch his/her allocation from Crop A to B. Or would 70% of water applied to A to B. Or would 70% of water applied to 100% of the acreage net a higher return 100% of the acreage net a higher return than 100% of water over 70% of the area?than 100% of water over 70% of the area?
Proposed by Dr. Hosrt Caspari, State Viticulturist, February Proposed by Dr. Hosrt Caspari, State Viticulturist, February 7, 2003 correspondence .7, 2003 correspondence .
The modeling approach used a risk analysis The modeling approach used a risk analysis for irrigation requirements of crops….One for irrigation requirements of crops….One could model the risk of water shortage for could model the risk of water shortage for say a particular area, then perform say a particular area, then perform scenarios such as what is the economic scenarios such as what is the economic impact (= yield) on Crop A if the water impact (= yield) on Crop A if the water supply is at 70% of average, 50% of supply is at 70% of average, 50% of average, etc. The next question would be average, etc. The next question would be what is the impact on Crop B at those water what is the impact on Crop B at those water supplies, and at what point should a supplies, and at what point should a producer switch his/her allocation from Crop producer switch his/her allocation from Crop A to B. Or would 70% of water applied to A to B. Or would 70% of water applied to 100% of the acreage net a higher return 100% of the acreage net a higher return than 100% of water over 70% of the area?than 100% of water over 70% of the area?
Proposed by Dr. Hosrt Caspari, State Viticulturist, February Proposed by Dr. Hosrt Caspari, State Viticulturist, February 7, 2003 correspondence .7, 2003 correspondence .
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Norris: Speaking of multilateralism, do you notice, as many have suggested, that there's an increasing unilateralist bent in the United States government?
Blix: Yeah. On big issues like war in Iraq, but in many other issues they simply must be multilateral. There's no other way around. You have the instances like the global warming convention, the Kyoto protocol, when the U.S. went its own way. I regret it. To me the question of the environment is more ominous than that of peace and war. We will have regional conflicts and use of force, but world conflicts I do not believe will happen any longer. But the environment, that is a creeping danger. I'm more worried about global warming than I am of any major military conflict.
Norris: Speaking of multilateralism, do you notice, as many have suggested, that there's an increasing unilateralist bent in the United States government?
Blix: Yeah. On big issues like war in Iraq, but in many other issues they simply must be multilateral. There's no other way around. You have the instances like the global warming convention, the Kyoto protocol, when the U.S. went its own way. I regret it. To me the question of the environment is more ominous than that of peace and war. We will have regional conflicts and use of force, but world conflicts I do not believe will happen any longer. But the environment, that is a creeping danger. I'm more worried about global warming than I am of any major military conflict.
http://www.mtv.com/bands/i/iraq/news_feature_031203/index5.jhtml