the commercial influence of newsbrands

The commercialinfluence ofnewsbrandsSally Dickersonmanaging directorBenchmarketing

#shiftnorth

The ROI studySales return A meta-analysis of 500+ econometric models2011 – 2016

Analysis conducted by Sally Dickerson, managing director

of effectiveness consultancy

The ROI study

Part of the Omnicom Media GroupA graduate in Mathematics from Oxford, Sally joined Mars UK as a market research analyst, later joining their Management Science division. She co-founded The Decision Shop, part of Bates/Cordiant then in 1999 joined the then OMD group and set up ROI (Return on Investment) focused on market mix modelling, which became OMD Metrics, then BrandScience, and is now Annalect Marketing Sciences. In 2016 Sally created a new consultancy business, Benchmarketing, running strategic quantitative consultancy projects using meta analysis. She has also contributed to over 30 IPA advertising effectiveness awards, been an IPA effectiveness award judge, and run marketing effectiveness masterclasses for the Marketing Society and Chartered Institute of Marketing. She was a judge on the inaugural Cannes Creative Effectiveness Lions panel, in 2011 and again in 2013.

3 key questions

1How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not?

2Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels?

3What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?

The evidence

Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average

1Digital newsbrands improve the effectiveness of print and print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective

2 3Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands

Source: Benchmarketing analysis of 500+ econometric models

Retail

Travel & Transport

Automotive

Finance

Combined services

FMCG

The study analysed six categories

Retail

Combined services

Today we will cover

Automotive

Finance

How has adspend evolved in the last five years?

SMI data provides a representative picture of actual media mix

Actual media spend from booking data provided by 65% of UK agencies

Data across all above the line media

Detailed breakdown of digital spend across display, video and paid search

Breakdown of newsbrand spend across print and digital

Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)

13.7%

2013

11.9%

2014

9.7%

2015

14.4%

2012

15.4%

2011

Across all categories, total newsbrand spend has declined since 2011

Source: Total available categories SMI 2011-2015

50%

0%

Digital channels accounted for a third of media spend in 2015

TV Cinema OOH Radio Magazines Print newsbrands

Online newsbrands

Other digital display

Digital video

Search

43.0%

1.4%

9.4%3.6% 3.4%

7.6%2.1%

11.1%

5.8%

12.6%

9.7%

31.6%


11.4%

2013

9.6%

2014

7.6%

2015

12.5%

2012

13.7%

2011

Across all categories print newsbrand spend has declined since 2011


27.1%

2013

22.3%

2014

16.5%

2015

28.1%

2012

30.1%

2011

In retail, print newsbrands remain the #2 channel despite the decline


9.8%

2013

8.3%

2014

7.7%

2015

10.7%

2012

13.1%

2011

In finance, spend in print newsbrands has declined less sharply


Has the pendulum swung too far?

Our exploration

Advertising x medium and messagePR, Media mentions, Buzz

Pricing vs competitors

Store universe changes

Product/Range changes

Brand awareness/perceptions

Competitor marketing

Competitor routes to market

Technological change

Seasonality

Economic change

Econometrics – identifying and assigning a weight to the ingredients driving sales

Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI)

Base Distribution 1 Distribution 2 Promotions Channel 1Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Channel 5

Calculating revenue return on investment (RROI)

Spend £mSales £m due to spend

RROI

Channel 1

Channel 2

Channel 3Channel 4

Channel 5Total

£2.5

£0.5

£1.5

£1.0

£0.5

£6.0

£3.0

£0.5

£3.0

£1.5

£0.6

£8.6

1.20

1.00

2.00

1.50

1.20

1.43

A meta analysis of multiple econometric cakes

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%£0.0

£0.2

£0.4

£0.6

£0.8

£1.0

£1.2

£1.4

£1.6

R² = 0.955623065086703

Print newsbrands % of total communications spend

Reve

nue

ROI

Defining the relationship between spend and revenue return

Each dot on the graph represents a case inour Results Vault

Here the data suggests as the % of print newsbrands in the mix increases, so does effectiveness

This is an example chart, not real data

Creating tertile groups of cases shows the revenue return for low, medium and high spend levels

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%£0.0£0.2£0.4£0.6£0.8£1.0£1.2£1.4£1.6

% of total communications spend

Reve

nue

ROI

£0.0£0.2£0.4£0.6£0.8£1.0£1.2

Tertiles of % of total communications spendThis is an example chart, not real data

1How effective are campaigns that use print newsbrands versus those that do not?

£9.08

£25.18

£18.82 £18.25

Total campaign

revenue ROI

Low 2-20% Medium 20-31% High 31-100%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in retail

No print newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels16.5%Retail

Print newsbrands boost total campaign ROI by 2.8 times, but the category is failing to spend at optimum levels

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015

£1.49

£8.47

£6.76

£3.91Total

campaign revenue

ROI

Low 2-5% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend

No print newsbrand

spend

2015 spend levels7.9%

FinanceAutomotive

Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by up to 5.7 times but advertisers are missing out on large additional revenues by not including newsbrands in the mix

Finance2015 spend levels

7.9%


Advertising carryover rates measure the time period over which the media will drive a sales response

Determining the ‘adstock’ – or the memory effect of advertising

Adstock greatly influences the total return of a campaign

0

20

40

60

80

100

adstock 80% grps

0

20

40

60

80

100

adstock 30% grps

80% per week is typical of a long term branding message

30% per week is typical of a shorter term promotional message

Print newsbrands go on working for much longer than online in the finance category

391% higher

impact at day 7

0 7 14 21

Online Newspapers

Even in the short-term retail category, print newsbrands add 9% more impact on a weekly basis

0 7 14 21

Online Newspapers

9% higher

impact at day 7

Print newsbrands outperform online for all service categories

Automotive

Finance

Retail

Travel & transport

Combined services

Category Print newsbrands Online

69%

54%

47%

47%

48%

60%

11%

43%

39%

37%

2Do digital newsbrands improve effectiveness? And what impact do print newsbrands have on the effectiveness of other media channels?

Adding digital to print improves print revenue ROI by up to five times in retail

x5

Print newsbrands make TV spend work twice as hard

£6.49

£12.22

£5.72

£10.82

TV revenue

ROI

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in combined services

No print newsbrand

spend

Combined services

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015. Combined services includes: Finance, Retail, Telecoms, Travel & Leisure, Media, Government/Social/Political, Other Services(Online & Offline)

Print newsbrands boost online display and video by up to four times£12.46

£20.96£17.42

£55.98

Online display

revenue ROI

No print newsbrand

spend

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12%


High 12-18%

Combined services


£4.84

£12.10£13.33

£8.28Online

display revenue

ROI

Low 2-10% Medium 10-12% High 12-18%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance

No print newsbrand

spend


FinanceAutomotive

Print newsbrands also boost online RROIs by an average of 2.3 times in finance

Finance


£4.02

£40.45

£11.34

£55.82

Radio revenue

ROI

Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%


No print newsbrand

spend


FinanceAutomotive

Combined services: print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 10 times

FinanceCombined services


£1.70

£3.21

£0.45

£3.15

Radio revenue

ROI

Low 2-7% Medium 7-22% High 22-37%

Print newsbrand % of total campaign spend in finance

No print newsbrand

spend


Finance

Print newsbrands boost radio revenue by up to 1.9 times in finance

Finance


3What proportion of the budget should be spent on print newsbrands to deliver optimum total campaign ROI?

The data from the meta analysis allows us to build response curves for each channel, by which we calculate the optimum split for any given budget

Revenue £m

Media investment £m800

900Online Display

TV

Online Search

Newspapers

VOD

Outdoor

Magazines

Radio

TV Sponsorship

Cinema

Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015

0%

13%

22%24%

26% 26% 26%27% 27%

26%24%

22% 21% 21% 20%19%

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Total annual campaign budget £m

Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for all budget levels in supermarket retailRecommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI


Retail – Supermarkets £40m 16.5% 27%

Category Typical spend p.a. £m

Print newsbrandspend % 2015

Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect

Source: Benchmarketing/BrandScience Results Vault 2011 to 2015Source: BrandScience channel planning sales analysis 2015

0% 0% 0%

8%

15%

19%21%

23% 24%25%

24% 23% 23% 23% 23%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15total annual campaign budget £m

Above annual budgets of £5m+ print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix in non-grocery retailRecommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI

11%

62%

51%

34%26%

21%17% 15% 13% 12%

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Print newsbrands should form a significant proportion of the mix for finance brands

Total annual campaign budget £m

Recommended % spend on print newsbrands to optimise total campaign ROI


Finance Typical spend p.a. £m

£25m(higher spends £50m)

Print newsbrandspend % 2015

8%

Print newsbrand % spend for maximum campaign effect21%13% for higher spends


2016 2017

11.4%

2013

9.6%

2014

7.6%

2015

12.5%

2012

13.7%

2011

The pendulum has swung too far for print newsbrands – and advertisers are missing out

Source: SMI (Standard Media Index)

The evidence

Print newsbrands boost overall campaign ROI by three times on average

1Print newsbrands make TV twice as effective and online display four times as effective

2 3Spend on print newsbrands should return to 2013 levels, and can be boosted further by use of digital newsbrands