the costs of emerging markets financial crises: output, productivity and welfare
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The Costs of Emerging Markets Financial Crises: Output, Productivity and Welfare. LFN, Buenos Aires September 30, 2009. The paper. Basic question: Why are financial crises so costly in terms of output and welfare? Or, why does TFP collapse during financial crisis? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Costs of Emerging Markets Financial Crises: Output, Productivity and Welfare
LFN, Buenos Aires
September 30, 2009
The paper
• Basic question: Why are financial crises so costly in terms of output and welfare? – Or, why does TFP collapse during financial
crisis?• Note that the welfare question is tricky and the W
function that we use in economics may not be the appropriate one
– For instance people care a lot about unemployment (Pernice and Sturzenegger, 2003)
– I say this because the paper talks about murders and suicides
The paper
• It builds a model based on the hypothesis that financial crises decrease the efficiency of resource allocation and shows how this decrease in efficiency affects TFP
• It also includes:– A careful discussion of the difference between the
ideal measure of real value added and the approach used by national statistical agencies
– An empirical application to the Argentinean crisis of 2001/2002
• Maybe the Argentinean government could start charging royalties on papers on the Argentinean crisis
The paper
• Basic question: Why are financial crises so costly in terms of output and welfare? – One hypothesis is that resources are
allocated less efficiently (or more inefficiently) during crises
– The paper presents a framework for measuring this effect
– Guido and Mark are very careful in building a model that can then be taken to the data.
– This is a great contribution of the paper
This is the equation we use to implement our TFP decomposition
The paper
• Main findings:– In the Argentinean crisis 60% of the decline in
TFP is driven by changes in the efficiency of resource allocation (especially allocation across sectors)
– But 17 percent (??) is measurement error
Crisis
• We model the crisis as an unanticipated change in the prices at which goods trade internationally, the world interest rate, and the entire distribution of wedges faced by firms
• Intuition:– Real depreciation– ?– ?
Crisis
• Questions:– Is the international interest rate that changes
(presumably goes up), or some measure of the risk premium?
– What about the wedges?
What are the wedges?
• The paper provides an intuition in term of distortionary taxes– But why are they different across sectors (and
possibly even across plants)?– Why does the financial crisis affect them in a
different way?
• For me it is very hard to follow the paper without understanding more about the wedges
Fixed costs
• Flow fixed costs and initial fixed costs– Are they the same?
• I don’t think they should be
– How important are they for the results of the model?
• Does it make sense to assume that the decision to produce in any given period is static?– Is this related to the assumption on flow fixed costs
and start-up fixed costs?– Doesn’t this modeling strategy generate too many
shutdowns?
Empirical application
• How do you take care of entry and exit in your sample?
• It is very strange that the wedge on capital is the one that changes the least– One would think that a financial crisis should
have a big effect on investment
A view from the planet Krugman
• The ongoing financial crisis has made it clear that macroeconomic models need to allocate a more prominent role to financial shocks and financial frictions. One possible way to achieve this is by adopting a behavioural approach that incorporates elements of “animal spirits”, as outlined, for instance, in the recent book by Akerlof and Shiller (2009). In our own work, we have focused on a different avenue through which financial shocks could affect the macroeconomy – the interaction between nonstandard economic shocks and enforcement problems of financial contracts
• Jermann and Quadrini
• Guido and Mark are closer to J&Q than to A&S• So, I asked my father
The Costs of Emerging Markets Financial Crises: Output, Productivity and Welfare
LFN, Buenos Aires
September 30, 2009