©NIDEA 1

Natalie Jackson

The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand

Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)

Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd

Presentation to WasteMINZ ROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3rd 2014

©NIDEA 2

Population ageing – what does it mean for WasteMINZ?

• The demographic forces shaping our future– More elderly than children– Fewer labour market entrants than exits– More deaths than births > the end of growth– Urban agglomeration versus subnational

population decline• Regional impacts of demographic and economic change (Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi) - MBIE• The subnational mechanisms of the ending of growth – towards a theory of depopulation (Tai

Timu Tangata, Taihoa e ) – Marsden• Jackson (forthcoming) Planning for a demographically-tight labour market - New Zealand’s

ageing occupations and industries

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Population ageing – New Zealand style

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

1961

percentage at each age

Male Fe-male

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

2013

percentage at each age

Male Female

14.2% aged 65+8.6 % 65+ years

Me

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The Big Picture

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The very big pictureProjected Pop. 2011-2031

Change at 65+ Years

Change - all other age groups combined

MDCs (58*)(<5%)

49% (+98 million)

-4%(-41million)

Auckland(33%)

112% 23%

The Rest (NZ)(11%)

88% -1.5%

*US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

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Drilling downProjected Pop. 2011-2031

65+ Years All other age groups combined

North Island(19.7%)

90.4% (+387,690)

9.4%(274,760)

South Island(12.2%)

83.4%(+131,920)

-0.6%(-4,970)

Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

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0-4 5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140New Zealand - Projected change by age (%) (MEDIUM)

2011-2021 (8.9%)2011-2031 (17.9%)

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

eAgeing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth

Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

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New Zealand - more elderly than children within 12 years

1901

1911

1921

1936

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

2021

2031

2041

2051

2061

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000

0-14 years65+ years

Num

ber

Projected

Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

Already crossed over in 22% TAs

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• Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years:

• Only 11 TAs escape this scenario

• Growth will end in most TAs

Ageing-driven growth

©NIDEA 10

2013 Census• 2006-2013: Auckland

accounted for 52% of growth

• Auckland plus 11 cities accounted for 75% of growth

• Elsewhere - patchy growth, widespread/ deepening decline

• Of 1971 census area units with resident populations in 2006, 35% declined (647) or had zero growth (39)

• The data confirm past trends / mixed futures..

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2001-2006

• End of growth / depopulation not a new issue, but it is spreading and its cause is changing

• Old form of decline = net migration loss (was resolvable)

• New form of decline = net migration loss plus natural decline (self-reinforcing)

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Northland Region

Auckland Region

Waikato Region

Bay of P

lenty Region

Gisborne Region

Hawke's B

ay Region

Taranaki Region

Manawatu-Wanganui R

egion

Wellington Region

Tasman Region

Nelson Region

Marlborough Region

West Coast

Region

Canterbury Region

Otago Region

Southland Region

-100

10203040506070 Auckland and ‘The Rest’ 2006-2011

2011-162016-212021-262026-31

Perc

enta

ge o

f all

grow

th

This disparate situation is projected to continue

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

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Enter - the demographically-tight labour market- Baby Boomer Retirement (NZ 1 mill.)- Competition for labour supply

- Between industries (incl. education), regions, countries..

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2011

-201

6

2016

-202

1

2021

-202

6

2026

-203

1

2031

-203

6

2036

-204

1

1041

-204

6

2046

-205

1

2051

-205

6

2056

-206

1

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Projected change in numbers at 15-19 years (Total NZ)

TGYH

NZ: 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next 10 years

Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

What do these trends mean for your

industry?

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..it is happening - fewer school leavers are coming to a town near you

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..it will get worse before it gets better – and then the respite will be patchy

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1996 2001 2006 20130.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.02.7

1.4

0.9

1.6

0.9 0.6

Ratio of employed labour force by broad age group

15-29: 55+ years15-24: 55+ years

Ratio

Already fewer younger than older employed workers

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Goodbye youth unemployment

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19011916

19361956

19711986

20012016

20312046

20610.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Projected 15-24 : 55+ years

55+15-24

mill

ions

Enter ageing workforces -

Source: The Economist, April 9 2011

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New Zealand Employed Labour Force 1996, 2013 (+22.7%)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

2013

percentage at each age

age

Male Fe-male

23.6%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

1996

percentage at each age

Male Female

Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database

11.5%

27:10 9:10

Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 27:10; 2006 = 9:10

In 2013, Boomers aged

48-67 years

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New Zealand’s Refuse Collectors 1996, 2013 (+19.9%)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

2013 (N = 849)

percentage at each age

age

Male Fe-male

25%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

1996 (N = 708)

percentage at each age

Male Female

Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database

9%

32:10 10:10

Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 32:10; 2006 = 10:10

National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

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New Zealand’s Heavy Truck/Tanker Drivers 1996, 2013 (+6.7%)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

2013 (N = 23,235)

percentage at each age

age

Male Fe-male

29%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

1996 (N = 21,783)

percentage at each age

Male Female

Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database

9%

28:10 4:10

Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 28:10; 2006 = 4:10

National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

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NZ’s Senior Government Administrators 1996-2013 (+140%)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

2013 (N = 2,754)

percentage at each age

age

Male Fe-male33%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

1996 (N = 1,149)

percentage at each age

Male Female

Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database

16%

7:10 4:10

National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =7:10; 2013 = 4: 10

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Specialised Managers 1996-2013 (+72%)

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

2013 (N = 231,420)

percentage at each age

age

Male Fe-male23%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

75+

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

1996 (N = 134,706)

percentage at each age

Male Female

Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database

12%

14:10 6:10

National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =14:10; 2013 = 6: 10

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Growing competition --hello increasing labour costs

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There will be increasing competition generally

The Economist, April 9th 2011

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Regional competition

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Regions - ageing rapidly – who you ‘gonna call?

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Thames-Coromandel 2013(1996 Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

65+ years: 16.4% (11.7%) 65+ years: 25.6% (19%)

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Clutha 2013(1996 Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

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Regions differ markedly – Auckland OK, Christchurch.. ??

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Auckland 2013(1996 Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

65+ years: 11.2% (10.1%) 65+ years: 14.9% (13.4%)

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Christchurch City 2013(1996 Unshaded)

percentage at each age

Male Female

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Most TA’s will soon have fewer labour market entrants than exits

Observed Projected

1996 2001 2006 2013 2016 2021 2026 20310

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

6.8

27.4

35.6

49.3

68.5

83.6 80.8

69.9

Perc

enta

ge T

A’s w

ith fe

wer

ent

rant

s th

an e

xits

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population;(1996-2013) ;Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

Hamilton?

©NIDEA 31

Population ageing is here to stay• It is coming to a WasteMINZ service

near you• It will drive down labour supply and

drive up labour costs• It will see the permanent end of

growth / onset of depopulation in most rural areas

• We urgently need to rethink most types of service delivery (and demand)

• Accept • Buffer• Collaborate/Conserve

Time to rethink demand/service delivery

©NIDEA 32

• Thankyou

• natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea