the dutch land market: a regional tool for policy impact on vacancy and grant rates
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The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates. European Real Estate Society Conference 2014 27 th Jun 2014. Brano Glumac, PhD. Land acquirement by municipalities. Municipality is an active stakeholder - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates
European Real Estate Society Conference 2014
27th Jun 2014
Brano Glumac, PhD
/ Department of the Built Environment
Land acquirement by municipalities
• Municipality is an active stakeholder
• Due to economic conditions land demand declined
• Depreciate the industrial land value• in 2014 losses have risen 4-6 billion• competition for attracting companies
• Mismatch in supply and demand → ABM
Page 2
/ Department of the Built Environment
Land market imperfections
• Location and allocation• Land is traded infrequently• High transaction costs• Difficult to determine accurate price
• Integrating: urban policy, population growth dynamics, land-use change prediction
• ABM supports: policy makers, urban planners, urban developers
Page 3
/ Department of the Built Environment
ABM as an industrial land use policy tool
Page 4
• Model matches existing supply with predicted demand
• Supply: existing industrial and business parks• Demand:
• Demand model per industry sector• Location choice based on companies’ preferences
• Data:• Employment per sector; sector specific area demand• Industry location (future also), location
characteristics, company register, GIS
/ Department of the Built Environment
ABM as an industrial land use policy tool
Page 5
/ Department of the Built Environment
ABM: General demand model
• BLM model estimates spatial demand (SD)• Employment indicators (E)• Terrain quotient (TQ)• Location type preference (LTP)
• Company growth with Monte Carlo• Growth per individual company• Fitting of the current accommodation• Newcomers
Page 6
/ Department of the Built Environment
ABM: Location specific model
• Attributes
Page 7
Attributes Levels
Minimally built percentage 0-50%; 51-65%; 66-100%
Maximally built percentage 0-80%; 81-90% 91-100%
Environmental category 1-3; 4-6
View location Yes; No
Terrain type Mixed-use; High-end-use
Park management Yes; No
Parking possibilities Sufficient; Insufficient
Highway accessibility 0-0.5km ; 0.5-1km ; 1-2,5km; > 2,5km
Distance to city centre 0-2km; 2-5km; >5km
Accessibility public transport 0-200m; >200m
Distance to airport 0-2km; >2km
Distance to living area 0-200m; >200m
Clustering of companies Above 2x average; Below
Land price 0-140€; 141-170€; >170€
/ Department of the Built Environment
ABM: Location specific model
• Bayesian Classifier Naïve Network
Page 8
ABM: Financial feasibility
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 9
• Investments vs benefits• more space, moving closer to…
• Cost estimates for 3 actions: relocate, refurbish, built on new location
Model Validation
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 10
• Procedure
• Validation methods & outcomes
Model Validation method Outcome Acceptance
BLM Correlation 0,87 > 0,80
BCN Hit rate test 0,2978 > 0,0678 (entropy)
ABM Correlation
Hit rate test
0,95
0,60
> 0,80
> 0,50
Case Study
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 11
• Region of Eindhoven:• 4 municipalities• 330000 habitants• 190000 jobs• 53 business parks• 1300h business land
• 180h LID• 4 large projects LNID
Municipality tests Status Quo Scenario
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 12
• Scenarios vs 4 indicators:
Municipality tests Scenarios
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 13
Scenario Mean Land Grants 2012-2020
Mean Vacancy
Mean Compaction
Status Quo 56 ha. out of 237 ha.
9,9% 16%
Discount 60 ha. out of 237 ha.
10,0% 8%
Competition 56 ha. out of 237 ha.
9,9% 16%
No introduction of LNID
56 ha. out of 187 ha.
9,9% 16%
Restricted municipal land grants
37 ha. out of 97 ha.
8,2% 23%
Municipality tests Scenarios
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 14
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Status Quo No introduction of LNID
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• ABM has been developed
• Scenarios are tested
To Conclude
/ Department of the Built Environment Page 15
