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10-1990

The Economic Impact Of A National Football League Team On The Economic Impact Of A National Football League Team On

The Northeast Florida Economy The Northeast Florida Economy

Joseph M. Perry University of North Florida

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Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Perry, Joseph M., "The Economic Impact Of A National Football League Team On The Northeast Florida Economy" (1990). Economics and Geography Faculty Publications. 2. https://digitalcommons.unf.edu/beco_facpub/2

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THE ECONOMIC IMP ACT OF

A NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE TEAM

ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA ECONOMY

Prepared by

Dr. Joseph M. Perry Department of Economics and Geography

University of North Florida Jacksonville, Florida

October, 1990 FLORIDA

DOCUMENT

DEC14 '95

N.F. UBRARY

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I. INTRODUCTION

News of the planned expansion of the National Football League in the near future has raised questions concerning the economic impact that a professional football team would have on the Northeast Florida economy. While the Gator Bowl and the Florida-Georgia football games create substantial once-yearly increases in area economic activity (estimated at $12 to $18 million for each event), the homesiting of a professional football team in Jacksonville would generate an almost year-'round financial stimulus.

Establishment of a team in Jacksonville would involve the location of 85 team-related households (families) in Northeast Florida, where they would establish permanent residences, and become active participants in the local economy. The team head office would also find an appropriate location in Jacksonville, hiring additional local workers to bring the work complement to approximately 110 persons. The team would normally schedule two pre-season games and eight regular-season games each year. The probability is high that a Super Bowl would be scheduled in Jacksonville during the decade after team establishment. Revenues from television coverage of the games would bring even more economic stimulus to the area.

All of these stimuli represent additions to the area economy, generating spending and jobs that did not exist before. Measurement of the overall net dollar impact of the NFL team requires analysis that traces both the direct and indirect effects of new spending, using appropriate multiplier factors. This study presents the results of such an analysis, focussing on the generation of higher levels of final spending in the Jacksonville MSA, and the creation of new jobs throughout the area economy.

TI. HOW MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS WORKS

When out-of-town visitors spend money at shops, stores, and stadiums in the Jacksonville area, their dollars exert an overall influence that is greater than their initial outlay. Economists call this concept the multiplier. Journalists have often termed it "the ripple effect".1

The basic idea behind the multiplier concept is that a dollar, when it is spent in the local economy, does not disappear or remain idle in a cash drawer or bank vault. The merchant who receives the dollar pays some or all of it out to others in the form of wages, interest, rent, taxes, or compensation for goods and services. The individuals and agencies who receive these payments spend all or part of them, in turn, thus initiating a spending­respending cycle that can continue for months.

The total impact of this spending-respending activity depends on how much of the dollar is respent every time there is a turnover. Typically, if a wage-earner receives a paycheck, some of the money received will go into savings, or will be used to pay various kinds of

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taxes. Some of it may also be used to buy goods and services produced outside the region or outside the country, so that these dollars are also lost to the First Coast economy. Taxes, savings, and imports thus constitute the major "leakages" from this stream of dollars flowing through the system. The smaller the leakages, the greater the multiplied impact over time of the initial level of spending. The larger the leakages, the weaker the multiplier.

Typically, if $100.00 is spent on hotel or motel lodging by a football fan visiting Jacksonville, then less than $100.00 will be spent on the first round of subsequent respending, and even less on each succeeding round. The impact gradually dwindles as leakage reduces the size of each respending round. Since the average dollar spent in a Northeast Florida retail establishment turns over five to six more times per year through this respending activity, most of the multiplier impact is felt within a period of 12 to 18 months from the time of initial expenditure. In the case of tourist spending on lodging, the original outlay of $100.00 ultimately generates another $86.94 worth of spending and $63.09 worth of new household earnings in Northeast Florida, for a total dollar impact of $250.032

Multiplier impacts resulting from the flows of new, non-tourist expenditures into Northeast Florida can be analyzed in the same way. Revenues from television contracts, advertising, and similar activities will move through the economy just like tourist dollars. An analogy often used by economists to illustrate this equivalence comes from international trade. U. S. citizens can stimulate the Japanese economy by visiting there and leaving their dollars (converted into yen) in hotels, restaurants, and train stations. However, they can exert the same kind of stimulus by staying at home and buying a Japanese automobile imported through the Port of Jacksonville. The dollars they pay for the automobiles are converted into yen and ultimately flow into the Japanese economy, where they have essentially the same impact as tourist spending.

Note that many kinds of impacts·can be analyzed through the use of multipliers. Spending can influence not only the overall level of output in an area, but can affect income and earnings, and hence the level of employment Employment and earnings multipliers have been developed to measure these specialized relationships.

Note, too, that the timing and length of an event will influence its multiplied effect on the economy of Northeast Florida. Once-a-year activities such as the Gator Bowl and the Players Championship create temporary changes in the general growth trend for the area. Visitors come in large numbers, spend substantial amounts of money, and then leave. Their dollars have a strong, but quickly dwindling effect on total spending. The greatest economic impact from such an event occurs soon after it ends. None of the once-a-year events in this area, however important they may be, provide a continuing, permanently higher stimulus for the economy .

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In contrast, a continuing activity such as a year-round professional football operation will provide economic stimulus that does not dwindle and disappear after some months. Although much of the visitor and television spending associated with games is concentrated during the fall and winter quarters of the year, the families of players and major employees will make their homes locally, and will spend throughout the year. The head office of a professional football team will also make other expenditures throughout the year, thus expanding the seasonal stimulus. H an expansion team is located in Ja~ksonville, its presence can be expected to lift the area economy to a permanently higher, year-'round level, with far less seasonal fluctuation than is associated with once-a-year events.

ill. THE BASIC METHODOLOGY FOR THIS STUDY

Computation of the net economic impact of an NFL expansion team on the Jacksonville MSA may be accomplished in the following way:3

1. All dollar flows into or out of the Jacksonville area, stemming from normal, year­' round operations of an NFL team, are identified and either measured or estimated as accurately as possible.

2 The appropriate multiplier factors for each of the dollar flows are specified, and the total multiplier impact of each flow is computed.

3. All incidental cost and revenue items that may not require multiplier analysis are identified and measured.

4. A net impact figure is computed by consolidating the values of the multiplied dollar flows and the incidental cost and revenue items. This bottom-line figure represents the annual net contribution of an NFL team to the local economy.

In common sense terms, this procedure involves netting out the difference between the influence of dollar inflows and the influence of dollar outflows. A complicating factor in the analysis is the presence of Jacksonville-area fans at the games. These fans spend dollars on tickets; concessions, transportation, and entertainment that would normally be spent on other goods and services in the same locality. Prior studies indicate that the net effect on the area economy is close to zero. The dollars spent by local fans at NFL games will have a multiplied impact that is about equal to the multiplied impact in the use from which they are taken. In colloquial terms, the effect is a "wash". This last observation emphasizes the importance of ticket sales to fans who live outside the Jacksonville area. The larger the proportion of fans who are spending dollars that are new to the economy, and that represent net spending injections, the greater the overall economic impact of the games .

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While the development of estimates concerning dollar flows may be relatively easy, the specification of appropriate multipliers may not be. Fortunately, economists have been aided in this regard by some very important research carried out by a Federal agency. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the U. S. Department of Commerce has developed a sophisticated method of estimating regional input-output multipliers known as the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II, for short). RIMS II is based upon a 500-industry input-output table that can be adapted to show the industrial structure and trading patterns of any region in the United States.4

The regional multipliers generated by this system permit computation of the direct, indirect, and total impacts of spending changes on regional final output, earnings, and employment Through a special computer run made by the BEA, UNF acquired current multipliers for the Jacksonville MSA and its constituent counties (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns). Use of these multipliers makes possible the analysis of a variety of economic changes in Northeast Florida, ranging from the opening of new manufacturing plants and the expansion of area military bases to the establishment of an NFL expansion team in the area.5

Establishment of an expansion team in Jacksonville indicates a continuing and self­reinforcing series of annual stimuli to the area economy. Since the team would become a reality in 1993, evaluation of the team impact from 1993 to the year 2000 provides a longer­term view of how professional football would fit into the area growth trend .

As is true of most analyses of future economic impact, the series of impacts from 1993 to 2000 must be reduced to present monetary value as of 1990, the date of analysis. This computation gives a current bottom-line estimate for comparison.

The annual revenue flows that are used in computing total spending impacts may also be used to estimate job creation in the area economy. An employment multiplier, also derived from the RIMS II model, is applied to each identified annual dollar flow, showing the number of permanent jobs directly and indirectly generated by that flow. 6

IV. NECESSARY ASSUMPTIONS

In order to generate determinate estimates of economic impact, an appropriate set of input data must be used. The following assumptions were made concerning the operation of an NFL team, beginning in 1993:

1. The annual budget of the team will be $75 million. Television revenues will total $42 million, including $40 million from national sources, and $2 million from local sources.

2. The team will play two pre-season and eight regular-season games per year in the Gator Bowl.

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3. Mean attendance at regular-season games in the Gator Bowl will be 75,000 fans. The range of attendance will be from 65,000 to 82,000.

4. The average ticket price will be $26.00, measured in 1993 dollars.

5. The proportion of game attendees fr-om outside the Jacksonville MSA will average 30 percent

6. 85 families in the team organization will permanently locate in the Jacksonville area.

7. Total employment by the team office in Jacksonville, including members of the 85 families noted above, will be approximately 110 persons.7

V. ESI'IMATES OF ECONOMIC IMPACI'

On the basis of the noted assumptionsi and using the RIMS ll multipliers and a conservative methodology, the net aggregate annual impact of the establishment of an NFL expansion team in Northeast Florida, as of 1993, is estimated to be $130.9 million. This figure is composed of $93.2 million worth of new final spending for the area economy, and $37.7 million worth of new earnings for Northeast Florida households. Over the period from 1993 to 2000, assuming normal growth and inflation, the total cumulative impact of the NFL team will be $1 billion. The net present value of those years of impacts, as of 1990, is an impressive $816.7 million.8

The same assumptions, when applied to employment multiplier analysis, indicate that the annual presence of an NFL team will create a total of 2,987 new jobs in the area economy, including the 110 persons employed by the head office.

VI. SPECIFIC LOCAL IMPACTS OF THE NFL TEAM

The multiplier analysis mentioned above provides some measures of the impact of new spending on specific sectors of the local economy. For example, a dollar's worth of new final demand in each of the following indusbies will have the indicated effect on total overall spending in the Jacksonville MSA:

Economic Sector Final Spending

Multiplier =========~================~===========~=============

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Air Transportation Hotels and Lodging Places Amusement and Recreation Services

1.8339 1.8579 1.6838 1.8694 1.7930

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Eating and Drinking Places Auto Repair and Services Hospitals Advertising

1.9271 1.7093 1.9548 1.7635

~=====================~~==========c=============~==:

The figure shown for the wholesale trade sector may be interpreted as follows: If final demand in wholesale trade initially increases by $1.00, then total final demand in the MSA will ultimately increase by $1.83, after all of the multiplier respending has occurred. In addition, the earning~ of area households will inCrease by $0.65 (earnings multipliers are not shown here). The total dollar impact of the initial spending increase is thus $248. Other figures may be interpreted in a similar fashion.9

While they are informative, these aggregate multipliers do not adequately show the complex interrelationships in the Northeast Florida economy. Economists are fond of saying that "everything is connech!d to everything else" in a typical economic system. The Jacksonville MSA is no exception. Final sales in wholesale or retail trade, expenditures in hotels or motels, or spending on auto repair or restaurant meals, all generate a multiplied stimulus that touches a wide variety of economic activities. This is one reason that the prospect of an NFL team is important to the entire Jacksonville community: the economic stimulus from the team presence will touch almost everyone and almost every business enterprise in the area .

An excellent example of this interconnection comes from the analysis of new spending at area hotels and motels. The following tables uses a simple RIMS II spreadsheet showing how an initial expenditure of $1,000.00 at area lodging places is typically distributed throughout the entire metropolitan economy as the spending multiplier works:

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Hotels and Lodging Places, Jacksonville MSA: Initial Increase in Final Sales: $1,000.00 Distribution of Economic Impact by Industry

Industry Description Increase in Total Sales in Industry ================================================~=====

Agriculture Forestry and Fishing Mining Maintenance and Repair Construction Food, Kindred Products, and Tobacco Apparel, Textiles Paper and Allied Products Printing and Publishing Chemicals, Refined Petroleum Rubber and Leather Products Lumber and Furniture Products Stone, Oay, Glass Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metals Nonelectrical Machinery ElecbicalMachinery Motor Vehicles Other Transport Equipment Instruments Miscellaneous Manufacturing Transportation, Local Govt, Transit Communications Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Eating and Drinking Establishments Finance Insurance Real Estate Lodging and Amusements Personal Services Business Services Health Services Other Services

$ 10.60 0.50 0.10

52.30 31.70

2.50 6.60

21.20 13.00 4.80 3.30 7.10 1.60 5.70 1.10 1.60 0.10 1.10 0.50 2.10

37.10 47.40 25.10 46.70 74.90 41.30 38.80 41.30

147.50 1,011.90

27.40 79.30 35.70 48.50

=====~====~==~===

Total Multiplied Spending Change: Plus Household Earnings Created Total Multiplied Dollar Impact

$1,869.40 630.90

$2,500.30

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Note that, although the $1,000.00 expenditure affects the lodging industry most strongly, as one would suspect, there are ultimate spending effects on a wide variety of area business firms. Hotel spending by visiting fans would therefore positively impact Jacksonville residents as diverse in occupation as real estate salespersons, Tf A bus drivers, registered nurses, construction workers, and electricallinespersons.

The example also is limited to a simple expenditure of $1,000.00. Consider, instead, hotel or motel spending by visiting fans that is 2,000 or 5,000 times greater, and the economic importance of an NFL team begins to assume its true magnitude. If a new NFL team calls Jacksonville its home, the benefits accrue to the entire community, not just to the hospitality, entertainment, and sports industries.

VII. SOME IMPONDERABLES

The analysis presented in this paper reflects only the basic aspects of economic impact resulting from an NFL team calling Jacksonville its home. Not included are the considerable economic effects of a Super Bowl game being played in Jacksonville. Also not considered are the enhancement of public image that a professional football team would accomplish for the community, and the possible expansion of other professional sports, once Jacksonville becomes "an NFL city" .

ENDNOTES

1.Much of the analysis and discussion in this section of the study originally appeared in a report presented to the Mayor's Economic Development Council in Jacksonville. See Joseph M. Perry and Louis A. Woods, "A Model for the Evaluation of Economic Impacts in the Jacksonville, Florida MSA", unpublished paper, 1985.

2.The final spending multiplier for hotels and lodging places is 2.5656, and is derived from a special run of RIMS II for the Northeast Florida area, provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U. S. Department of Commerce. Other relevant multipliers are presented in a later section of this paper. The income velocity of money for Northeast Florida (the annual average dollar turnover rate) is derived from current velocity data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

3.A significant portion of this analysis is also drawn from the paper by Perry and Woods, cited above .

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4.See U. S. Deparbnent of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Multipliers: A User Handbook for the Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS ID (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, May, 1986), pp. 1-2. Note that a region must be defined as an aggregation of counties, since the regional input-output tables are based upon county-level data. This approach makes the RIMS TI multipliers readily adaptable to. the analysis of Metropolitan Statistical Areas or BEA Economic Areas, since both are county-based. For more background information on the RIMS modelling approach, see J. V. Cartwright, R. M. Beemiller, and R. D. Gustely, "RIMS TI: A Disaggregated Regional Input-Output Modeling System", a paper presented at the Southern Economic Association meetings, Washington, D. C., November, 1980.

S.Op. cit, pp. 11-21. The RIMS TI approach has been used by UNF researchers to develop economic impact estimates for the Gator Bowl and the Florida-Georgia football games, the Players Championship golf tournament, the Association of Tennis Professionals, the Naval Aviation Depot at NAS-JAX, and a variety of business establishments and closings.

6.0p. dl, pp. 7-8. See also the examples provided on pages 11-21 of the cited work.

7.The noted assumptions are based upon estimates of revenues and expenses provided by officials of Touchdown Jacksonville, Inc .

8.A conservative real discount rate of 3 percent is used to compute the net present value of future economic impacts. This rate is based upon historical differentials between inflation and securities yields.

9.Each of the noted multipliers was created by a special run of RIMS TI provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Deparbnent of Commerce .

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