the economics of immigration - montana state … 2014.pdfthe economics of immigration. ... 1900 1910...
TRANSCRIPT
Wendy A. Stock, Ph.D.Professor of Economics and
Head, Department of Ag. Economics and Economics
Montana State University
The Economics
of Immigration
Immigration Overview
Costs and Benefits of Immigration
Issues On Which Politicians Have Taken Positions
•Border Security
•Illegal Immigration
•Legal Immigration
Open Discussion & Questions
Outline
How Can One Immigrate to the US?
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
1. Family-Based Immigration
2. Employment-Based Immigration
3. Refugees, Asylees
4. Diversity Visa Program
5. Other
Source: Greenstone and Looney (2010) “Ten Facts About Immigration,” The
Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Foreign Born by Legal Status, 2009
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Roughly 11
million
illegal
immigrants
Why is this an issue?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent
Decade
Percent Foreign Born in the U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Why is this an issue?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Perc
ent
Decade
Percent Foreign Born in the U.S.
37 Million
13.5 Million
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Perc
en
t o
f A
rea's
Po
pu
lati
on
Year
International Migrants as % of Population
World Northern America
More developed regions Less developed regions
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2009). "Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2008 Revision."
Source: Greenstone and Looney (2010) “Ten Facts About Immigration,” The Hamilton
Project, Brookings Institution. Based on IPUMS-USA and March CPS data.
1910 2008-09
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
US Foreign Born by Place of Origin
Why is immigration an issue?
Agricultural Economics & Economics
Costs Benefits
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigration generates net economic benefit
Economics Research:
Does Immigration Generate a Net Cost or
Net Benefit for United States?
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigration generates net economic benefit
•Cost v. Benefit differs by length of time residing in U.S.
•Cost v. Benefit differs geographically
•Cost v. Benefit differs by immigrant skill & education level
What about the distribution of costs & benefits?
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Source: Greenstone and Looney (2010) “Ten Facts About
Immigration,” The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Cost v. Benefit differs by length of time residing in U.S.
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Source: Stock (2012) based on U.S. Census data
Cost v. Benefit differs geographically
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010
Sh
are
of
Imm
igra
nt
Po
pu
lati
on
Year
Skill-level of Immigrant Population in the US
Low-Skilled Mid-Skilled High-Skilled
Low-skilled immigrants are those without a high school diploma, high-skilled immigrants are those with at least a
college degree.
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Source: Hall, et al. (2011) “The Geography of Immigrant
Skills: Educational Profiles of Metropolitan Areas,”
Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program paper.
Cost v. Benefit differs by immigrant skill & education level
Source: Hall, et al. (2011) “The Geography of Immigrant Skills:
Educational Profiles of Metropolitan Areas,” Brookings
Institution Metropolitan Policy Program paper.
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Cost v. Benefit differs by immigrant skill & education level
Cost v. Benefit differs by immigrant skill & education level
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
What does immigration do to the wages of native workers?
Are immigrants complements or substitutes for native workers?
Effects of Immigration on the Wages of U.S-Born Workers
Source: Greenstone and Looney (2010) “Ten Facts About
Immigration,” The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigration Overview
Issues on which Politicians have taken Positions
•Border Security
•Illegal Immigration
•Legal Immigration
Open Discussion & Questions
Outline
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Border Fence/Border Security
Secure Fence Act of 2006
•700 miles fencing on US/MX border (2006: 80 miles)
•More checkpoints, lighting, barriers
•More use of technology (drones)
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Border Fence/Border Security
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Benefits
Border Fence/Border Security
Costs
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigration Overview
Issues on which Politicians have taken Positions
•Border Security
•Illegal Immigration
•Legal Immigration
Open Discussion & Questions
Outline
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigrant-level / Supply Side Policies
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Employer Level / Demand Side Policies
Policies on Illegal Immigration
Immigrant-level / Supply Side Policies
• Enforcement Priorities at ICE
• Dream Act
• Legalization Process
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dep
ort
ati
on
s (
1000s)
Year
Deportations (in thousands)
Source: Author’s reproduction of NY Times Chart;
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/07/us/more-deportations-follow-minor-crimes-data-
shows.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dep
ort
ati
on
s (
1000s)
Year
Other Serious Offense No offense/Minor Infraction
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dep
ort
ati
on
s (
1000s)
Year
Other Serious Offense No offense/Minor Infraction
75% 66%
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dep
ort
ati
on
s (
1000s)
Year
Other Serious Offense No offense/Minor Infraction
75%
17%
66%
20%
Employer Level / Demand Side Policies
• E-Verify
• DHS resources
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Immigration Overview
Issues on which Politicians have taken Positions
•Border Security
•Illegal Immigration
•Legal Immigration
Open Discussion & Questions
Outline
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Legal Immigration
• Citizenship for military families
• Reduce barriers for high-skilled immigrants
• Raise caps for some countries; raise caps on high-skill
visas
• Grant permanent residency to foreign students who obtain
advanced degrees in STEM at a U.S. university
• Funding to improve service at USCIS
• Improve temporary worker visa program
OverviewCosts and
BenefitsBorder Security
Illegal
Immigration
Legal
ImmigrationDiscussion
Wendy A. Stock, Ph.D.Professor of Economics and
Head, Department of Ag. Economics and Economics
Montana State University
The Economics
of Immigration