the european heat pump market - status and overlook

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European Heat Pump Market 2015 Status and outlook

Thomas Nowak

Secretary General EHPA

Contact

[email protected]

+49 176 6320 1140

Thomas Nowak | European Heat Pump Market 2015 – Status and outlook

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European Heat Pump Association

• 111 members

• 22 countries

• Company members

and

National associations

• “We speak heat

pumps

in Brussels”


3 Thomas Nowak | European Heat Pump Market 2015 – Status and outlook

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• 1825 Basic principle

• 1852 Refrigeration

cycle for heating and

cooling

• “Invention of the fridge”

• 1938 installation of a

heat pump in Zurich


Wärme

10

Future cities can be heat pump cities


11

EU Climate and energy framework 2020


Reduce Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

levels by 20%

Increase share of

Renewables to 20%

Reduce

energy

consumption

by 20%

Source: European Commission, DG Energy2007

12

Legislation to implement 2020 targets


• RES Directive 2009/28/EU

• Ecodesign framework Directive (2009/125/EU)

• Energy labelling framework Directive (2010/30)

• Energie performance of buildings Directive (2010/31/EU)

• Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU)

• Ecodesign and the Energylabel

(2013/811,812,813,814/EU)

13

2011

EU energy roadmap


«The EU is committed to reducing

greenhouse gas emissions to 80–95 % below

1990 levels by 2050»

Energy roadmap 2050. (COM(2011) 885 final | 15.12.2011

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2012

Current climate and energy framework: 202020 targets -status 2012


Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels by 20%

Increase share of Renewables to 20%

Reduce energy consumption

by 20%

Reductions in 2012:-18%

2020 Targets

2020 Projection

Share in 2011:12.7%

2020 Projection

2020 Projection

~16-20 %

Source: European Commission, DG Energy

15

2013

new targets for 2030


Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels

by MIN 40%

Increase share of Renewables to MIN 27%

Reduce energy

consumption by

MIN 27%

2020 Targets

Source: European Commission, DG Energy

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Ecodesign and the Energylabel(2013/811,812,813,814/EU)

• Ecodesign requirements for fossil, heat

pumps, micro-CHP … ; Up to 400kWheat output

• Based on primary energy

• Transitional method for efficiency calculation

• Bans of low efficient products from 2015/17:

gas < 86%, electric < 30%/36%, HP: 100% |

115% / 110%/125%

• Energylabel for products up to 70kWheat output

• Consumer information by product / package

label

• One energy label for products with same

function

• Two distribution systems, Three climate

zones


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2013

How much primary energy is needed for 100 units of useful heat?


gro

un

d

wat

er

air

PEF = 2,5

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European heat pump keymark

• ISO type 5 system according to ISO 17065– One set of test requirements including a

robust model range approach

– Application via notified bodies

– Factory Production Control (FPC)

– A quality assurance system

– Usability of manufacturer labs (if accredited by 17025, possibly witness testing)

• Open for all interested certification bodies

• Mutually accepted in all EU Member States

• Market introduction in Q4/2015


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2014

Heat pumps a core contributorto the energy union


• Heating and cooling strategy reconfirmed

• EHPA messageHeat pump solutions shall be at the heart of the Energy Union. They contribute to all five dimensions

Heat pump

solutions

Energy security

Integrated market

Energy efficiency

Decarbonised economy

Research, innovation,

competitiveness


EU market report 2015with market data for 2014

+

http://www.ehpa.org/market-data/2014/http://stats.ehpa.org/login/

http://www.ehpa.org/market-data/2014/

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+14% +16% +37% -9%

+7.4% p.a.

9% +1% -7% +3%

EU 11 EU 12 EU 14 EU 14 EU 19 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21

market development 2005 – 2014accumulated: 7.5 million units installed

EU 21

+3%


22

market growth rates 2006 - 2014


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Air dominant energy source for HP in EuropeAnnual sales by energy source


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Split picture of preferred HP across EuropeSales 2014 by country


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Biggest growth in sanitary hot water HP


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK

units > 20kW

units < 20kW

Large heat pumps – hidden champions?Split of sales in 2014 by capacity


27

France leads EU heat pump markets


706 602

units

(89%)

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Scandinavia + Baltics lead HP penetration sales per 1000 households


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85.8 TWh renewable energy provided in 20142.7% of the 2030 target

final energy consumption

Croatia 2012:

69TWh


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51.7 TWh primary energy savings in 20140.2% of the 2030 target


energy by German

wind farms 2012

46TWh

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22.1 Mt of GHG emission reduction 1.2% of the 2030 target

CO2 emitted by

Croatia 2010

21Mt


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employment 2014 in man-years: 43 465

• total employment is higher

• technology leadership is in Europe


33

Turnover and tax generation (million €)


total: € 5.2

billion

- tax share (total: € 0.9 billion)

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- actual sales 2014

market potentialsif Sweden was everywhere

total: 4.9 mio


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price ratio: electricity / gas - 2014

2.5

source: Eurostat


37

Infavorable price energy ratios dominate


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So now what?

• Swift and decisive action

• Recognize heat pumps as available technology

• Create proper price signals

• Technology selective approach

• socio-economic research to overcome

deployment barriers


39

In 2015 G7 leaders agree to phase out fossil fuel use by end of century
