The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

dynamic Demand Capacity Balancing

WP 07 06 05

Marcel RICHARDExpert ATFCM

Operational Specifications & Requirements

SESAR

Traffic Prediction (Occupancy Count) is the cornerstone to take decision with confidence

MUAC Occupancy counts prediction error compared to entry counts prediction error

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

-100-80-60-40-20020406080100120140160180200220240260280300

Time to prediction [min]

Pre

dic

tio

n E

rro

r [%

]

Occupancy counts

Entry Counts

Entry Counts + Std Dev

Entry Counts - Std Dev

MUAC entry sample: 14000 entries

MUAC occupancy sample: 5000 occupancies

What is dDCB?

Entry Counts

What is dDCB?

Occupancy counts

Entry versus Occupancy

Network View

Network View

Network View

Network View

Network View

Concept Clarification Occupancy Monitoring

Concept ClarificationNetwork view: Hotspots

Hotspot

Concept ClarificationNew roles and responsibilities

Concept ClarificationNetwork View for Airspace Users

Hotspots

15

Actors and role

STAM Coordination: Actors

Concept ClarificationNew roles and responsibilities

STAM

Measures and Coordination

17

Coordination

Hourly Capacity Versus dDCB

Capa Regulation

Co

mp

lexity

Capacity

Concept ClarificationNew process and procedures

19

Monitor Entry/Occupancy

DE

TE

CT

ION

CO

OR

DIN

AT

ION

IMP

LE

ME

NT

AT

ION

AN

AL

YS

IS a

nd

P

RE

PA

RA

TIO

N

Hot Spot Confirmed

Monitor and Analyse Traffic

Complexity

Define STAMMeasures

Coordinate STAM

MeasuresCoordinate

Verify Hot Spot

Capture Hot Spots

Network View

Verify Hot Spot Cancel Hot

Spot

PromulgateSTAM

Measures

Clear Hot Spot

Network View

Scenario

Criterias to idendify Hotspot

Criterias to define

Measures

STAM Notification

STAM Promulgation

Assess STAM Coordination effectiveness

Critical Events

STAM Coordination

Cancel Hot Spot

Intent

Ready

Proposed

Interrupted

Interrupted

Coordinated

Implemented

Cleared

Hot Spot Detected

Criterias to confirm Hotspot

Hot Spot Proposed

Cancel Hot Spot

Interrupted

Finished

AbandonedEscalate

Cancel STAM Measures

Cancel STAM Measures

Abandoned

STAMMeasuresFinished

Trial 8, 9 and 10 November 2011Validation Objectives

20

Concept ClarificationRAW DATA

21

Feedback Questionnaire for FMP

11%

13%

11%

11%

25%

29%

33%

11%

22%

38%

22%

25%

29%

33%

33%

25%

11%

22%

25%

33%

38%

29%

33%

44%

63%

44%

78%

38%

22%

13%

14%

11%

11%

T1. It’s easy to detect an over-over delivery

T2. I find it easy to create a hotspot.

T3. I find it easy to delete a hotspot.

T4. I find it easy to modify a hotspot.

T5. The available information in the flight list is enough to take an efficient decision.

T6. The available information in the flight list easily allows the interference of a STAM measure to be detected

T7. I find it easy to coordinate a STAM Measure.

T8. The available information for coordination is enough to take an efficient decision

T9. The response time of the system is efficient.

Strongly disagree Disagree Undecided Agree Strongly agree

11%

13%

11%

11%

25%

29%

33%

11%

22%

38%

22%

25%

29%

33%

33%

25%

11%

22%

25%

33%

38%

29%

33%

44%

63%

44%

78%

38%

22%

13%

14%

11%

11%

T1. It’s easy to detect an over-over delivery

T2. I find it easy to create a hotspot.

T3. I find it easy to delete a hotspot.

T4. I find it easy to modify a hotspot.

T5. The available information in the flight list is enough to take an efficient decision.

T6. The available information in the flight list easily allows the interference of a STAM measure to be detected

T7. I find it easy to coordinate a STAM Measure.

T8. The available information for coordination is enough to take an efficient decision

T9. The response time of the system is efficient.

Strongly disagree Disagree Undecided Agree Strongly agreeStrongly disagreeStrongly disagree DisagreeDisagree UndecidedUndecided AgreeAgree Strongly agreeStrongly agree

Concept ClarificationNew roles and responsibilities

23

Assessment of the new roles and responsibilities

Subsidiarity principle : local decisions are efficient (FMP, AO)- Notification : Information sharing to allow the transparency of the decision taken- Negotiation : Coordination support take part to the negotiation

Network Manager role and support tool• Notification will allow to build the picture of the Network• Issue

- To clarify and define the NM role and responsibility- To define a NM Supervision tool support

Issues to investigate

Network Manager role and support tool

Concept ClarificationConclusion

24

Concept ClarificationConclusion

25

Human Performance

Cost-effectiveness is improved through an increased controller productivity

With the introduction of STAM technics, the FMP is becoming a real job !• Staffing issue• Training Package : Dissemination of new working method in Europe• FMP qualification or license • (operative FMP are not at the same level in Europe)

Is dependant of the support tool qualityIt needs to re-invent the dDCB working position (as we made for the Controller Working Position 20 years ago – ODID,

FASTI, ….)

With the introduction of STAM coordination, the AO is involvedStaffing issue

Network Manager role, responsibilities and working method need to be re-designed

26

SESAR Release 3 Trial Spring 2013 More participants

Training Package : Dissemination of new working method in Europe

New Tools

More involvement of Airlines

Network Manager