the european union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-soviet space marco siddi...
TRANSCRIPT
The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space
Marco SiddiEXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011
4 protracted conflicts
• Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria
• De facto states: sovereignty, no international recognition
• ‘Parent states’ and ‘patron states’• Start: collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-1992)• Ethnic conflicts, except Transnistria• Current state
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Nagorno-Karabakh
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Transnistria
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Geopolitical context
• Russia: post-Soviet space/limit Western influence
control of Black Sea
security dilemma in the Caucasus
• EU: energy security
stability and security in the neighbourhood
Relevance of Kosovo precedent
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
EU’s involvement
• 1998-9: bilateral PCAs • 2003-5: EUSRs for South Caucasus and Moldova• 2004-6: ENP and bilateral Action Plans• Civilian missions: EUBAM Moldova (2005), EUMM
Georgia (2008)• Mediation in August 2008 crisis, co-chair of Geneva
talks
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
The EU in Georgia
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
The EU in Moldova
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
EU’s involvement: problems
• Low profile, no coherent strategy (i.e. vis-à-vis Armenia and Azerbaijan)
• ENP review: no news• Current restructuring: EUSRs• No military/economic access to de facto states• Out of OSCE Minsk Group on N-K, only
observer in 5+2 format on Transnistria
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Conclusion
• The EU plays a marginal role• EU « reactive » rather than « proactive » (i.e.
no peace plan proposal)• Shortcomings of inflexible non-recognition
policy• Actors: EU or member states?• Lack of a coherent strategy – no change in the
foreseeable future
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Thanks very much for your attention!
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011