the fine line between prediction and intention (#eurocomm)

THE FINE LINE BETWEEN

PREDICTION & INTENTION

NAOMI TRICKEY [email protected] | Tel: +44 (0)1273 234 290 | @ntrickey

04/2013

Source/ July 2011 Census Data

NEW YORK CITY POPULATION: 8,244,910

© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com

WHO IS THE AUDIENCE?


Source/ Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins

“THE RE-IMAGINATION OF NEARLY

EVERYTHING…”


VOLUME VELOCITY VARIETY


Source/ Chris Walker @atallman

“BIG DATA IS MARKETING SPIEL.

IT DOESN’T EXIST. THERE IS ONLY

‘DATA’. THINK OF IT THIS WAY…

AN OCEAN ISN’T ‘BIG WATER’.”


“THE NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT

FINDINGS DON’T REPLICATE THE

EXPANSION OF NOISE TO SIGNAL.”

Source/ David Brooks, NY Times


8

“WE CAN THINK OF THIS AS A

SIGNAL PROBLEM: DATA ARE

ASSUMED TO ACCURATELY

REFLECT THE SOCIAL WORLD, BUT

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT GAPS,

WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNAL

COMING FROM PARTICULAR

COMMUNITIES.”


Source/ Kate Crawford, HBR

AGGREGATE DATA TO FIND

PATTERNS AND INTENTION –

NOT NECESSARILY PREDICTIONS.


“THE MATHEMATISATION OF

SUBJECTIVITY WILL FOUNDER

UPON THE RESPLENDENT FACT

THAT WE ARE AMBIGUOUS

BEINGS… I HAVE NEVER VOTED

WHOLEHEARTEDLY IN AN

ELECTION.”


Source/ Leon Wieseltier, New Republic

11

Studies of Issues


LOOKING AT ISSUES, RATHER THAN POLITICIANS

© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com 12

Topics linked to the Scottish independence referendum by social media users

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Marine and fisheries

Built environment

Farming and rural issues

Public sector and government

Transport

Environment

Law order and public safety

Health and social care

Arts culture and sport

Education and training

People and society

Business industry and energy

Economy

Foreign affairs

SOCIAL MEDIA MENTIONS (JANUARY – MARCH 2013)

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: ISSUES OVER TIME


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

ME

NT

ION

S

MONTHS

Arts culture and sport Business industry and energy Economy Foreign affairs

SOURCES


http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/04/the_hidden_biases_in_big_data.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/brooks-what-data-cant-

do.html?_r=0&adxnnl=1&ref=davidbrooks&adxnnlx=1364824851-

8I+r+8/mWMTUOgBIkCcXAA

http://ideas.time.com/2013/03/29/viewpoint-why-predictions-fail-but-prophecies-dont/

http://cmo.com/content/cmo-

com/home/articles/2013/3/20/how_to_speak_big_dat.html.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112734/what-big-data-will-never-explain#

http://chiefmartec.com/2012/12/5-marketing-meta-trends-the-presentation/

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112734/what-big-data-will-never-explain

CONTACT

15

Email/ [email protected]

Twitter/ @ntrickey


the fine line between prediction and intention (#eurocomm)

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