William F. Laurance

Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science

James Cook University Cairns, Australia

The Future of Biodiversity

What is Biodiversity?

Richness of Species

Species

Subspecies Populations

– Genetic variation – Demographic variation – Behavioral variation

Biomes Ecosystems Communities

Within-species variation

Tiger salamanders

Crimson rosellas Amphidromus snails

Anemonefish calls

Species

Subspecies Populations

– Genetic variation – Demographic variation – Behavioral variation

Biomes Ecosystems Communities

Ecological interactions & co-evolution

How Much

Biodiversity?

?

Terrestrial vertebrates relatively

well known

Scheffers, Joppa, Pimm & Laurance (2012) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Fungi

0

2

4

6

8

10

Spec

ies

(mill

ions

)

Known Lower Upper

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Spec

ies

(mill

ions

)

Known Lower Upper

Insects

Deep-sea Species

0

2

4

6

8

10

Spec

ies

(mill

ions

)

Known Lower Upper

?

Why So Much Confusion?

‘Missing’ species are different!

Hard to find!

Scheffers, Joppa, Pimm & Laurance (2012) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Many are restricted endemics

Number of known restricted-endemic frogs in Brazil

Many are ‘cryptic’ Morphology often

misleading DNA Barcoding uses

1-2 fast-evolving genes to discriminate species

Very powerful with advances in DNA sequencing speed

60% of species now described from cryptic complexes

Astraptes fulgerator complex

Where is the

Biodiversity?

Global diversity of higher plants

Highest diversity: -wet tropics -Mediterranean regions

Global centers of species endemism

Highest endemism: -isolated & smaller -distinctive

What is the Future of

Biodiversity?

Critical factor: Fate of the Biodiversity Hotspots

Myers et al. (2000) Nature; Mittermeier et al. (2004) Hotspots Revisited.

>1500 endemic plants, >70% habitat loss

Growing Pressures on Hotspots

Cincotta et al. (2000) Nature

Forest loss is fastest in hotspot nations with higher population growth and lower human development (Dja & Bawa 2006)

Another critical factor: Fate of

protected areas

Eastern Bolivia

Laurance et al. (2012) Nature

Parks are not islands

Rabi Reserve, Gabon

Bukit Palong National Park, Malaysia

How much biodiversity will we lose

Public forum

Debating the Tropical

Extinction Crisis National Museum of

Natural History Washington, D.C.

13 February 2009

Many ‘missing species’ will be imperiled

Concentrated in hotspots and tropical regions Many are restricted endemics

Functional extinctions

Big animals

Apex predators

Old-growth trees

Ecological distortions & biotic homogenization

Disturbance-lovers Invaders

Opportunists

Great loss of genetic variation

Biodiversity is Invaluable

Myriad natural products Germ plasm for food crops Pharmaceuticals Ecosystem resilience Pollination services Carbon storage Tourism

TEEB

Pavan Sukhdev & colleagues

It’s not just about protecting nature -- it’s about ensuring we have a livable world

Thank you