the future of dubai - xaidialoge · the future of dubai – exploring society, future pathways and...

The Future of Dubai Exploring Society, Future Pathways, and Alternatives

Jan Lachenmayer M.A. July 2011, 2nd Edition

1st Edition published in July 2009 by SEgroup

www.xaidialoge.de

The Future of Dubai – Exploring Society, Future Pathways and Alternatives 2

Table of Content

3 ................................................................................................................................................. ملخص

Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 4

Note to the reader ......................................................................................................................... 5

1 Case for Action: Dubai on the Cross-Road! ....................................................................... 6

2 Research Design: Focus on Socio-Cultural Mechanisms ................................................. 7

3 Exploring Dubai’s Society ..................................................................................................... 9

3.1 Socio-Cultural Frictions 9

3.2 Predominant Paradigms 11

3.3 Conclusions 14

4 Future Pathways and Scenarios ......................................................................................... 15

4.1 Constituting Factors and Driving Forces 15

4.2 Scenario 1: “Crisis” 17

4.3 Scenario 2: “Bigger, Better, Faster” 17

4.4 Scenario 3: “Crisis as an Opportunity for Change” 18

4.5 Scenario 4: “Prosperity but Balance” 19

5 Alternatives and Options .................................................................................................... 21

5.1 Window of Opportunity 21

5.2 Dubai Strategic Plan 2015 21

5.3 Policy Recommendations 23

6 References ........................................................................................................................... 25

6.1 Bibliography 25

6.2 Interview Statistics 27


ملخصص ددبي ووتعتبرر جيیلل ووااحدد. ة في فتررةةيیاالتنميیة ااالقتصاددااالززددهھھھارر وو في تحقيیققحكوومة ددبي نجحتت نقططة غامضة: في تنميیة ااالقتصادديیة لل نمووذذجا

قتتقدد تررااف هھھھذذهه االتنميیة ااالقتصادديیة يیددوورر حوولل ما إإذذاا كانتتاالسؤؤاالل االذذيي ال يیززاالل يیفررضض نفسهھ بقووةة لكنن نن. يینن وواالحادديي وواالعشرريیاالعشرر يینناالقررن.مماثلة جتماعيیةااتنميیة مع

االررااهھھھنة. ووقدد ثبتت االعالميیة االظظررووفف االعصيیبة االتي تمرر بهھا بسببب االتططووررااتت عدديیددةة جررااءددبي تحدديیاتت إإماررةة تووااجهھ ددبي عندد مفتررقق االططررقق:االثقافاتت هھا وومكووناتهھ االمتعددددةة تمعمج فهھمم ما لمم يیعمقق ااالنحدداارر االمستمرر تووااجهھ ددبي خططرر كما. هھاعلى مستقبل كبيیرراا أأنن هھھھذذاا االووضع سيیترركك أأثرراا

.االمستقبليیة االقرراارر مع إإددررااجج هھھھذذاا االفهھمم في عمليیة صنع ٬،ثقافيیةـ االجتماعيیة ااال هھووآآليیات

االمساررااتت محتملةاالعقباتت اال ووإإبرراازز مجتمع ددبي في ااستكشافف هھھھددفف هھھھذذهه االددررااسةيیتمثلل • وومختلفف يیووااجهھهھا قدد االتي منهھا فقطط٬، سووااء بصووررةة إإرراادديیة أأوو ال إإرراادديیة. االتنموويیة االممكنة االتي يیتعيینن ااختيیارر ووااحدد

ااددررااسة حصيیلةنتائج هھھھذذهه االووررقة تمثلل تصميیمم االبحثث: ٬، كما تشتملل على 2009 مططلع عامموو 2008 أأووااخرر عامم ددبي بيیننب يیتتجررستكشافيیة أأتائج.االددررااسة. ووقدد أأجرريیتت مقابالتت عدديیددةة لهھذذاا االغررضض ووللتأكيیدد على صحة االن حوولل أأبررزز ااآلررااء االتي ظظهھررتت

ااالستقرراارر ددبي تنذذرر حتى بالمززيیدد منن في مجتمع دديیددةةع ةثقافيی ة ـجتماعيیاا اتتحتكاكررصددتت اا االنتائج: كما تفاقمم االقناعاتت االنززااعاتت. ووعددمم حددووثث خططرر تعزززز٬، بددووررهھھھا٬، ااألمدد ةةقصيیرر وويیؤؤدديي هھھھذذاانن االعامالنن إإلى تبني تووجهھاتت. تخففهھا أأنن منن بددال االقائمة٬، عددمم ااالستقررااررحالة االسائددةة

.اتتعددمم ااالستقرراارر وواالنززااعاالمززيیدد منن

سيینارريیووهھھھاتت. ااستخددمتت :االسيینارريیووهھھھاتت أأرربعة لتططوويیرر االمقابالتت غامضا عنددما يیكوونن لمستقبللللتخططيیطط في اا االسيینارريیووهھھھاتتووتساعدد نتائج .يیلل االسيینارريیوو االمفضللحاضرر٬، لضمانن تفعاالفي ٬، كما تسمح بتحدديیدد ما يینبغي فعلهھمختلفة منن ززوواايیا تتيیح االنظظرر إإليیهھ ألنهھا

االنتائج ااستنادداا إإلى ة يیسيیاساالتووصيیاتت ٬، كما ططوورر عدددد منن اال2015ططة ددبي ااالستررااتيیجيیة خ معهھھھذذهه االنتائج أأخيیرراا٬، قووررنتت تقيیيیمم االجاهھھھززيیة: وواالسيینارريیووهھھھاتت.


Abstract

The Government of Dubai has managed to create prosperity and economic

development within the time of one generation. Dubai is seen as a beacon for

development in the 20th and 21st century. Whether this economic development is

achieved by a comparable social development, is a question which still remains open.

The objective of this study is to explore Dubai’s society, revealing possible obstacles and

illustrate different pathways for development; pathways of which only one has to be

chosen, consciously or unconsciously.

Through an explorative study based on twenty interviews several socio-cultural frictions

and predominant paradigms in society could be identified, which bear the danger of

leading to instability and conflicts. The findings of the interviews are used to develop four

scenarios in order to see the future in different ways and based on that decide what to

do today. The findings are compared with the current Dubai Strategic Plan 2015 and

several policy recommendations are developed.


Note to the reader

This text is meant neither to criticise, finger-point, nor judge Dubai and its development.. Denouncing Dubai and explicitly addressing the difficulties Dubai faces has become a trend in media over the last year. Dubai is often described as an artificial place, build on a sand and consumerism with no soul, by Western visitors and expats. The truth however lies somewhere in between. Everyone should be allowed to have his or her own opinion, but these opinions should be built on real experiences rather than stories told by others.

Dubai’s actual state of development is rather recent in comparison to the Western and

Eastern capitals, which have been under development for centuries. In contrast, the

United Arab Emirates was founded only 37 years ago. From this perspective, Dubai’s

development has to be evaluated on the basis of a success story. However, it seems

Dubai is facing critical times with a need for path-steering, clear and collective decisions

in order to choose the development tracks for the future. This is important in order to

stabilise and sustain the developments accomplished until today.

This study was conducted from a perspective of a scientific observer. But it is also from a

personal observation and meant as personal support. Having lived in Dubai and made

plenty of friends in the region in support of these friendships it is important to make them

aware of possible dangers.

Accordingly this study is dedicated to my friends and to all the people involved in the

‘building-up’ of Dubai, forming part of the pillars on which its development is established


1 Case for Action: Dubai on the Cross-Road!

Currently Dubai is one of the most international, if not the most international place in the

world. A multitude of people from different cultural backgrounds are living together in

peace. Appreciation can be awarded to this fact, as well as to Dubai’s exceptional

economic development over the past forty years. Dubai is a unique place in its own

sense.

Dubai on the crossroad

Yet, Dubai is facing challenges, especially in the demanding current times and state of

world affairs, which is proving to have a significant impact on Dubai’s future.

Questions to put forward are: how is Dubai’s society constituted? Is the rapid economic

development accompanied by a comparable social development? Is the society stable

or rather fragile, modern or even postmodern? And how does this influence Dubai’s

future?

Multiple development paths are possible. The objective of this study is to explore Dubai’s

society, revealing possible obstacles and illustrating different pathways for development;

pathways of which one has to be chosen consciously or unconsciously.

Scientific context

Screening for literature and studies on this matter one will seldom be successful. Research

on Dubai’s society, specifically the interrelation between the social and political

dimensions with its economy, is highly underdeveloped. While some research on Dubai’s

economic development could be identified (Hvidt 2009, Azizi 2008, Davidson 2008,

Matly/Dillon 2007, Walters et al. 2006) a comparable exploration of the society, its

constituencies, mechanisms and development appears to remain a blind spot (rare

exception Davidson 2007).


2 Research Design: Focus on Socio-Cultural Mechanisms

Field of inquiry: socio-cultural mechanisms of society

Under culture we understand sets of beliefs, values and practices shared by a group of

people. Socio-cultural mechanisms are therefore the underlying conditions explaining

human behaviour and social interactions within society, in this case Dubai’s society.

Research design and paper outline

The following findings are the result of an explorative study, conducted between the end

of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 in Dubai and the consecutive reflection on this

exploration. Two approaches were applied:

• Explorative Culture Analysis (ECA) and

• Culture Impact Evaluation (CIE)

ECA is a deep qualitative interview format that explores a social system, in this case

Dubai’s society, relaying upon the stories of its members. ECA is based on the Harun al-

Rashid principle of Storytelling.

For the purpose of this study, twenty generative interviews with experts, managers and

directors from different sectors, as well as the government were held.

The findings of the interviews are presented in chapter 3. Details about the interview

partners can be found under References: 6.2 Interview Statistics. For a further elaboration

of the approach ECA see Lachenmayer (2009: Explorative Culture Analysis). The findings

of the interviews will be refined by literature research.


The second applied approach CIE utilises the findings of these interviews to outline

possible future pathways and according to these pathways, develop scenarios to see

the future in different perspectives. Four developed scenarios on Dubai’s future are

presented in chapter 4. For a further elaboration of the approach CIE see Lachenmayer

(2009: Culture Impact Evaluation). Chapter 5 presents alternative options for action and

policy recommendations in order to follow pathways, which might lead to the preferred

scenario.


3 Exploring Dubai’s Society

On the one side the findings of the interviews revealed several socio-cultural frictions

within Dubai’s society. These frictions are some kind of demarcation lines, which might

lead to conflicts and instability in the future. On the other side certain underlying

paradigms could be identified. These are predominant mental models observable by

methods, models, and instruments currently in use and part of everyday practice.

The socio-cultural frictions are going to be presented in chapter 3.1; the predominant

paradigms will follow in chapter 3.2.

3.1 Socio-Cultural Frictions

Culture is understood as the underlying believes, values, and practices determining

human behavior and social interactions.

Nationals | Foreigners

Local culture and traditions seem to have a challenging time surviving, as they are being

driven aside by newcomers’, expatriates’, and labourers’ cultures (Interview 5).

“The social architecture of Dubai is premised on a sharp division and separation of the

main three communities: local Emiratis, western, Arab and subcontinental expatriates,

and South Asian workers” (Masad 2008). The latter two communities constitute the

majority of the population. Davidson (2008: p. 151) estimated the “indigenous

population” (local Emiratis) of Dubai to be less then 80,000 of the total population of

approximately 1.6 million, representing a ratio of 5 per cent. Seen in a different light, this

means that just one out of twenty people living in Dubai have the UAE citizenship. Masad

(2008) arrives at a similar estimation of 10 per cent local Emiratis. This leads to an


enormous challenge for Dubai’s society, because the majority of expatriates and

labourers bring in their own core culture (Leitkultur) with them (Lachenmayer 2009: Cross-

Cultural Complex Project Management in Dubai). Core culture means the ethics,

standards, values, and morals. These core cultures are hardly challenged by a local

culture. Consequently, an adaptation or exposure with the local culture does not take

place (Interview 1, 12, and 14). The codes of society, in respect to the local Emirati

population, are to newcomers not accessible, which ultimately lead to a separation.

“The cost of such an apathetic and mixed foreign population is that Dubai’s social

structure is becoming increasingly fragmented, as different communities emerge and

then fail to integrate witch one another” (Davidson 2007: p. 192). A change of this trend

is most unlikely. A dialogue for better understanding between cultures is neither

observable nor fostered.

Project Workers | Long-Term Residents

The major part of Dubai’s society is constituted by members, who are living there for a

period of one to five years only. Consequently, the so called “project workers” (expats

and labourers) have a short-term orientation. Merely the smaller part of the population

has a long-term orientation and is therefore sincerely interested in a sustainable society.

Dubai is not a melting pot comparable to the US some centuries ago and other major

international metropolises, but a short-term based society. People come here to work on

timely restricted projects for mostly less then three years (Interview 10). “Moreover, the

vast majority are young men, which has led to an incredibly skewed gender balance;

given that many of these are very short term residents, most aim to remit the bulk of their

income to their home country and are therefore unwilling to integrate into a

cosmopolitan society” (Davidson 2007: p. 190).

Old | Young

Within the local Emirati population, a friction looms between the older generation (40+)

who is cleaved and socialised in a Bedouin culture, and the younger high technology

generation (Interview 13).

The rapid development of Dubai in terms of time span should not be underestimated. For

example, just ten years ago the greater part of Dubai was still desert. This leads to a

confrontation between the older and younger generations. The young generation is

coined in a high technology culture (Interview 12).

Cosmopolitanism | Tradition

The Emirati culture can be described as having two poles: On the one side a

cosmopolitan orientation, and a family, tribe and clan driven tradition on the other

(Interview 10 and 5).


“From Bedouin to global player” resulted in a disavowal of local traditions and even the

language. The younger generation seems to be in some cases more used to English than

to Arabic (Interview 14). The traditional culture to fall back on as a safe haven is missing,

which again results in increased uncertainty and problems of identity (Interview 10). “As

the city grows, its cosmopolitan nature expands and intensifies reflected in such areas as

dress code, food, language, religion and other aspects of lifestyle filtering through the

everyday life. Dubai often finds itself caught between its carefully crafted and branded

image as a city of harmonious living and a global hub of business and tourism, and its

reputation as a harshly segregated city living off the indentured labour of exploited Asian

workers” (Masad 2008). Cosmopolitan orientation and traditions are seen too many times

as contradictions. From a counter perspective they could enrich each other, if a new

image emerges based first and foremost on taking away the fear of loosing their local

culture, identity, or traditions, which most seems to have.

Shiites | Sunnis

A greater role on the importance of the religious affiliation between Shiites and Sunnis

may come into play in the near future. The logic of the tribal society follows primarily

along their origin and the time (in terms of generations) that they have resided in the

region. The distinction here is between Arab and Persian origin (Interview 13 and 14).

While this distinction used to be the dominant one, another one seems to have become

of importance; the distinction between Shiites and Sunnis (Interview 14). Reasons for this

might be the importation of demarcation lines from conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. For

example, government employees are predominantly Sunnis, which never was a topic for

concern; however publications in the local media indicate greater awareness on this

topic (Interview 13).

3.2 Predominant Paradigms

Predominant paradigms are the (mental) models and world views that affect the way an

individual and a society as a whole perceive reality and respond to that perception.

Social contract | Pragmatic market place

The foundation of the society is not built on a social contract, but on the functionality

and logic of a pragmatic marketplace. People complete their intended business and go

“home” afterwards, which is to their country of citizenship.

Although the local Emirati population is part of a social contract, as they precipitate from

an elaborated rentier system. They benefit from free education, health care, housing

and land providence. The majority of the city’s society (90-95% project workers: expats,

traders, labourers) is not submissive to the social contract. They live and work on the basis


of a market place with pragmatic market mechanisms. Until now, social bonds have

solely been based either on business licensing, work contracts or property leasing

(Interview 10).

Transition | Integration

The concept of the society is based on transition, not integration. The predominant

perception is that all workers are replaceable.

Dubai is the opposite of a melting pot and this is the way it chooses to remain (Interview

10). Integration is not favoured. A residence permit is dependent on a job assignment

and will be granted for six months only, demanding a need for renewal (policy regulation

enacted 05/2009). Limiting the number of allowances for renewal has been a topic of

discussion (Interview 14). The ministry of economic development announced the

following: “We will not create a climate for lasting immigration” (GEO Special 2007, p.

146).

Scarcity management | Money solves all problems

While Bedouin mental models are based on the management of scarcity and a deep

connection with nature, the post-oil and new technology generations are driven by the

attitude that money can solve all problems.

Nature is perceived as a good, which can be exploited. Long-term negative effects on

nature are denied in favour of short-term money driven solutions. Shortages in natural

resources, such as water, are solved by cost-expensive solutions (GEO Special 2007: p.

144-145). The bond with nature weakened antagonistically to the growth of economic

development and prosperity. While just one generation ago, the people living in the

region had a strong connection to nature and managed the scarcity that came along

with it quite efficiently, the generation of today lost contact with nature completely. A

great deal of old wisdom developed over the centuries, may get lost with the entrance

to 21st century metropolis civilisation.

New money elite

The enormous focus on prosperity and wealth led to the formation of a “new money

elite”, which is endangered to transform to a consumer-focused and “fun” society.

Shopping activities, cars and parties are some of the constituting elements. This

development might lead to a critical lack of willingness to contribute to society.

Davidson quotes one of Dubai’s veteran merchants: ‘’He describes the situation of

Dubai’s young nationals today, as possibly only 20 percent being worthwhile and

becoming academics, professionals or businessmen. About 60 per cent can probably be

written-off as a consequence of ‘giving in’ to the all-too-easy acceptance of the


pleasures just being handed out to them’’ (Davidson 2007: p. 179, Interview 5).

Nonetheless, there are a small number of young locals who are superbly educated in

Western talent hotbeds. These educated young locals however constitute a minority.

Tribal Equilibrium

The organisation and logic of society is still based on tribal systems. The tribes and

clanships are still determining factors (Interview 13). Tribes differ in importance and

power. The sub organisation of tribes follows along the family lines. (Interview 3)

“Unlike the tribal model that stresses horizontal, egalitarian relations, the family model

perceives relationships in a hierarchical, vertical form.” (Rugh 2007: p. 24) Maintaining the

equilibrium between those tribes is still an important political issue. The tribes are highly

interfolded and aside from the rivalry there is a lot of support. Keeping a straight face,

pride and dignity play important roles in this system and consequently are the reason for

the lack of transparency (Interview 12).

“These tribal and family expectations accomplish two missions. They establish the group

feeling that Ibn Khaldun believes to be of major important to society and rule, and they

create clear boundaries. Tribal and family boundaries are in fact boundaries of personal

obligations. As members of tribes and families, people have obligations in both circles of

relationships. (…) From the family or tribal perspective, any relationship beyond its

boundaries constitutes to an “outsider” one. Outsider obligations differ from 'insider' ones

in that they are mutable…”. (Rugh 2007: p. 221) These logics need to be considered

when trying to understand the mechanisms of the local Emirati part of society.

Dubai Inc.

Dubai is often said to be governed in a similar way as a corporation. If this comparison is

accurate, a representative government might be beside the point. However, Dubai Inc.

is lacking a healthy “corporate” culture in order to protect and stabilise its inner

organisation.

Return on Investment (ROI) is the primary approach for evaluating projects and initiatives

(Interview 15). Consequently, evaluation methods are once again relatively short-term

orientated (Interview 9). Dubai “… instituted an extreme pro-business path on which it

has based its subsequent development.” (Hvidt 2006: p. 6)

On the positive side, this paradigm laid the ground for the enormous economic

development. On the negative side, economic mechanisms are short-term orientated

and especially do not take a long-term social and societal perspective into account.


3.3 Conclusions

Reviewing all findings, socio-cultural frictions as well as predominant paradigms, two

summarising conclusions can be drawn from the reflection:

Short-term orientation

Many factors indicate and abet a short-term orientation. The majority of foreign project

workers reside in Dubai for only a limited time span of one to five years. However, they

form the majority of the population, estimated around 90%. Even within the 10% local

Emirati population a shift towards short-term orientation can be observed. Especially the

younger “new money elite” is more interested in consumerism than developing and

contributing substantially to society.

In terms of nature and natural resources, short-term money-driven solutions are preferred

over the long-term sustainable behavioural driven approaches. Market mechanisms and

economic interests dominate, which are inherently short-term. Projects are primarily

measured on a financial level by Return-On-Investment (ROI). Dubai functions as a

pragmatic market place, not based on a whole society, including a social contract.

Danger of instability

Many factors speak in favour of instability, rather than stability within society: the

imbalance between nationals and newcomers, and in particular the lack of integration

of the newcomers. The social structure is becoming more and more fragmented.

Nationals get the impression of being foreigners in their own country. This is a result of the

fact that there is a deep gap between local and newcomer’s culture. Differences in

religious affiliation, imported from conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, may come to play a

more dominant role in the future.

All of the observed socio-cultural frictions: nationals | foreigners, project workers | long-

term residents, old | young, cosmopolitan | tradition, and Shiites | Sunnis indicate an

increased instability if these frictions are not balanced in the near future. The

predominant mental models of the pragmatic market place, transition, and return on

investment are all contributing to the strengthening rather than balancing of this

instability.


4 Future Pathways and Scenarios

Multiple future pathways are possible. The question which follows is what are the

influential factors and what are the underlying driving forces to these factors? If both

these factors and forces can be identified, a framework can be build out of which future

scenarios can evolve.

Scenarios are a tool to assist in planning for a world in which the future is uncertain. It is

about seeing the future in different ways and using these different futures as a context for

deciding what to do today. Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but a tool linking

its uncertainty with decisions that have to be made today.

4.1 Constituting Factors and Driving Forces

The societal system is influenced by two dominant factors: the economy and the

institutional setting. The institutional setting is a system of rules, formal or informal which

guide all social interactions. Formal rules, for example laws, are set by the government,

while informal rules evolve out of traditions and habits manifested through social

interactions. The government can influence but not determine the informal rules.

For keeping the society in focus, both economy and institutional settings are external

factors. The driving force of the economy is growth, and for the institutional setting it is

stability in order to create a sustainable society.

The findings of the exploration, presented in the form of interviews and refining literature

research in chapter 2, lay out the functioning and logic of Dubai’s society. Visualising it

from horizontal axis increases stability and vertical axis increases growth. The findings

indicate a negative correlation between growth and stability (see Graphic 1). That is, for

the given institutional setting (status quo), the higher the economic growth the less stable

the society seems to be. So far this is an interesting finding, as it indicates a divergence in

goal attainment.


Graphic 1: Correlation between growth and stability

The comprised driving forces can be visualised in a 2x2 matrix leading to the creation of

four scenarios (see Graphic 2). The scenarios are along the lines of economic growth:

boom | slow-down and stability/sustainability: institutional setting status quo | alternative

institutional setting. The time horizon is 2015.

Graphic 2: 4 Scenarios

Until now the scenarios are interconnected as economic boom and slow-down occurs in

circles. While the first two scenarios are more closely related to the current reality, the

third and forth imply a change in the institutional settings.


4.2 Scenario 1: “Crisis”

In the first scenario Dubai leaps into an economic downturn. The economy shrinks and

the institutional setting is in accordance with the one assessed in the interviews (status

quo).

Dubai is in a serious “crisis”. A large amount of projects, especially in the construction

business, are on hold. Prices of real estate dropped, buildings remain uninhabited and

hilarious future projects are getting passed-of. Dubai is bashed by the international

media: “from star to scapegoat”. The Middle Eastern star looses brilliance. Workers and

expats loose their jobs and have to leave the country. Many locals see this as a positive

development. In fact, currently it stabilises the basement of society as it causes the local

Emirati population to increase in ratio. National Emiratis are not so much influenced by

the crisis, many are employed in government or de facto government organisations

(owned by the ruling family), which guarantee employment. Salaries are higher in

comparison with those being paid in the private sector organisations. Suffering appears

predominantly within the lower income part of the population, consisting mostly of Asian

workers or traders. In times of crisis the sub cultures and sub groups within society stick

more closely together, them being the Asians, Emiratis, or Western Expats. This leads to

the development of a parallel society. This society becomes even more of a black-box

for the government, as each part follows its own rules and mechanisms. On the

economic side, long-term investments are being avoided. Mental models foster a short-

term orientation. Return-on-investment becomes even more the predominant paradigm

as cash liquidity is rare. All socially stabilising engagements, such as culture, art and

redistribution are coming to a hold. The conservation of the environment and natural

resources is seen as a luxury, which is omitted for the sake of initiatives in support of

economic growth. On the positive side, the dramatic population increase over the last

years comes to a hold and a trend in the opposite direction is observable. As a

consequence the ratio of the local population increases for the first time in years.

Nonetheless, identity problems within the local population, especially the younger

generation, are strongly prevalent.

4.3 Scenario 2: “Bigger, Better, Faster”

In this world the society is driven by the economy. The economy is booming and the

institutional setting is fostering this boom.

Dubai is known as a place of adventure and possibilities. The motto being: “Bigger,

better, faster”. Build bigger buildings, be the best in world and faster developments.

Many venturers, primarily male bachelors from all over the world, come to Dubai seeking

adventure and business opportunities. The city is transformed into a gigantic megapolis

growing at a breathtakingly high speed. The number of foreign project workers


dramatically increases while the local national population decrease, to the point where

numbers reach insignificant single digits in comparison with the whole population. This

leads to a noticeable lack of identity, especially faced by the younger generation. The

rentier system allows them to still be ‘well off’ and in fortunate positions. They own most of

the land and property. Business licensing creates a constant revolving of income. In

consequence, the rich are getting richer. The succeeding generation profits from this

wealth. They do not have to work. Spending money on their well being and having fun is

their predominant occupation. The enhanced abundance of prosperity and wealth has

a negative impact on their working morale. They are not interested in taking over their

father’s business. The society issues do not really bother them, as long as they can have

fun and enjoy life. This leads to a conflict of generations and creates tensions within

families and between the tribes. The tribe equilibrium tends to get imbalanced. However,

the ruling family accomplishes to maintain quietude with diplomatic finesse by generous

concessions to important tribes. The dominance of an economic focus creates the desire

to strive for even more short-term profits and willingness to taking risks. More venturers

enter the country. The foundation of people who contribute to a long-term sustainable

society is being reduced to a decreasing ratio of local Emirati citizens. Second

generation residents leave Dubai for their country of citizenship. The growing population

consumes more water than available and the waste system seems to be in serious

trouble. However, once again the ruling family accomplishes through smart deals to

guarantee the balance in the current time, by exporting waste to India and obtaining

water from Saudi Arabia. Both countries take advantage of Dubai’s constraints by

increasing their profit margins. The beaches have a hard time to recover from

excremental pollution because of this. The numbers of tourists entering the country is on

the decrease, because it is known internationally that the beaches in Dubai are severely

polluted. However, on the other side the numbers of Asian tourists entering the country

are on the increase. The local nationals feel offended by the “strange” habits and

manners of the Chinese “new money elite” entering Dubai recently, but hazard the

consequences as this causes the prices of their properties to increase even further.

4.4 Scenario 3: “Crisis as an Opportunity for Change”

The third scenario is coined by an economic downturn. The government implements

substantial reforms in order to stabilise society. As a consequence, the institutional setting

changes (ex post status quo).

The economic downturn leads to turmoil in the labour market. Many workers loose their

jobs. Entrepreneurs of small and middle size companies, as well as traders close their

businesses. Without employment many people have to leave the country, including long-

term residents and high potentials. The total population decrease. The situation has a

negative spill-over effect on people who are still employed. The business and civil


atmosphere darkens. A tendency to ethnical riots and conflicts are observable as each

subculture sticks closer together in tough times. The negative atmosphere has an

influence on the numbers of tourists entering the country, consequently decreasing

dramatically. The government anticipates the dangers and implements a curious plan by

announcing a new initiative: “crisis as an opportunity for change”. Herewith they try to

foster a long-term orientation for all members of society – nationals as well as labourers

and expats. A strong image is created on how Dubai could possibly look like in the future:

A peaceful place, where people from all over the world are living together, equally

contributing and profiting from society. People should stick together and help each other

instead of fighting. In the bad times Dubai supports them and they should support Dubai

in return. Especially a family orientation is created. Prices for schooling are reduced,

accompanying the subinitiative “children are the future”. The first successes are

observable, although still more male project workers are leaving the country, while

expats and workers with families remain. With several subinitiatives the government

accomplishes to build trust in society. Trust in each other, in Dubai, and in the common

future. A long-term orientation plays a pivotal role. The Return-on-Investment project

evaluation is supplemented by long-term value creation. The positive effects seem to

work, although the economy is slowing down even further, the atmosphere is getting

better. The focus of keeping and attracting of high potentials is paying off. The numbers

of high potentials with a long-term commitment are on the increase.

After some time the new schooling policy will show some initial successes. Increasingly

more expat mangers are being replaced by young talent from families of long-term

residents, as well as the lower and middle income classes.

4.5 Scenario 4: “Prosperity but Balance”

In the fourth scenario the economy is booming and the government is implementing

several reforms in order to balance growth and guarantee sustainability. As a result the

institutional setting changes (ex post status quo).

After a serious down-turn the economy starts to catch up again. Construction business

and re-export are the first to boom. Labourers, as well as middle and high management

positions are vacant. The demand of the labour market increases significantly.

The government, having learnt from former boom times, sets up specific regulations. The

strategy is to form a long-term orientated adaptive society. This initiative is called

“prosperity but balance”. The ambition is to create awareness within the Emirati

population, to contribute to society as well as to increase the foundation of people with

a long-term orientation by carefully evaluating and offering permanent residencies.

Long-term residents, who exhibit the attitude of contributing to society, are offered a

permanent residency, enabling them to grow their families and providing them with the


respective benefits. For example, school costs for children of these families are reduced.

Incentive systems are established to enable potential Arab and Western expatriates to

reside in Dubai for a longer-term, if not their entire life. These incentive systems are

cautiously balanced according to a point system. Western and especially a significant

number of Arab people take this opportunity. As a consequence, the Arabic character

of Dubai is strengthened for the first time in decades. This is well perceived by the Emirati

population. Thresholds and barriers between subcultures are softening or even breaking

up. Beside that the moderate Arabisation in combination with a government initiative to

foster cultural institutions has a very positive effect on tourism, tourism is booming.

Especially the number of Western tourists is increasing, due to a very successful marketing

campaign by the Dubai Tourism Authority: “exploring Arabic culture in Dubai”. Another

initiative by the government is aimed to foster entrepreneurial activities within the youth.

Incentives are set accordingly. First successes of young businessmen are being publicly

promoted by media, creating role models for the younger generation and sets positive

examples to all. Several initiatives for the fostering of cross-culturalism and dialogues in

school, business and civil activities are also showing the first positive effects. In a large

survey conducted Dubai’s citizens’ rate their life and life in Dubai as quite satisfactory.

Dubai becomes a role model for the Islamic modernism in the Arab world, and of cross-

culturalism right across the globe. Several states are sending diplomatic missions to Dubai

in order to learn from Dubai’s policies and success stories.


5 Alternatives and Options

5.1 Window of Opportunity

The economic-financial crisis can be seen as a blessing in disguise for Dubai. In times of

boom people have become used to the ever increasing profits, margins, scale of

constructions, and hilarious developments. People did not hear, or pretended not

wanting to hear the warnings and concerns issued. Therefore the current economic and

financial crisis can have a very positive effect, as it opens a “Policy Window” of

opportunity (Kingdon 1995); the opportunity to set the “right” pathway for the future and

to make changes where they are essential. This time for change may possibly be limited,

as the window of opportunity will draw to a close again. “Once this window is opened, it

does not remain open for long” (Kingdon 1995: p. 169); therefore strong, courageous and

clear decisions are needed.

5.2 Dubai Strategic Plan 2015

The Dubai Executive Council developed, in a remarkable consultative effort, the Dubai

Strategic Plan (DSP) 2015. The first and second strategic goals out of the five are set very

clear: 1st Economic Development and 2nd Social Development (DSP 2015: p. 9). In terms

of past accomplishments Dubai must be seen as a prime example, as well as beacon for

economic development in the emerging world of the 20th and 21st century.

Whether this economic development is achieved by a comparable social development,

is a question which still remains open.

The presumption is rather that the focus has been primarily on the economic side until

now. It is written in the background introduction: “Dubai now enjoys a global reputation

as an economic hub and excellent location for investment.” (DSP 2015: p. 9) Both

remarks refer to economic development only.


Looking at the chapter on social development in more detail, in the introduction it is

written: “International comparisons of the drivers that sustain economic growth show that

only those countries with an infrastructure supporting effective social development are

able to sustain higher levels of continuous economic growth.” (DSP 2015: p. 26)

Moreover, “Significant efforts have been made to provide the required infrastructure to

support service delivery. Social services are currently accessible to all Nationals at a

minimal or no cost. These services include health services, education opportunities and

social assistance services.” (DSP 2015: p. 26) The key word here is Nationals. An

infrastructure which supports primarily just five percent of the total population is most

probably not contributing “to sustaining the high levels of continuous economic growth”

(see quote above). To make it very clear at this point; there is nothing against taking

care of and providing services to Nationals. This is in itself a remarkable accomplishment.

However, we cannot compare social development for Nationals only with the broader

social development aimed at fostering growth and stabilising the society.

The strategy for social development is further elaborated on through seven thrusts (DSP

2015: p. 27-28):

1. Preserve National Identity and Improve Community Cohesion.

2. Increase National’s Participation in the Workforce and Society.

3. Improve the Achievement of Students and Ensure All Nationals Have Access to

Quality Education.

4. Improve the Quality of Healthcare Services and the Health Status of the

Population.

5. Ensure Quality Social Services and Provided to Meet the Needs of the Population.

6. Ensure Equality and Acceptable Working Conditions for Workforce and Attract

and Retain Required Expertise.

7. Enrich Cultural Environment.

All strategic thrusts are extremely valid. However, a strong combining vision seems to be

a missing factor. And once again, the strong focus is on the Nationals and not on the

society as a whole, which is in fact contradicting the words of his highness Sheikh

Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President, Prime minister and Ruler of

Dubai, who writes in the preface: „This plan will serve as a strategic agenda (…) to

ensure prosperity and sustainable growth. (…) meant to support public wellbeing,

provide high quality of life for both UAE citizens and residents, and provide justice and

equality.” (DSP 2015: p. 7) Taking this as an amendment of the vision seems to be

necessary. The point we want to make here is that there seems to be two flaws. The first

concerns an in depth understanding of social development, which tends to be very

technocratic, and the second concerns the implementation of the strategic plan.


A sustainable society is not created by “just” providing an infrastructure, especially if this

infrastructure is accessible to only a few. Social development is a complex task; in fact it

is a continuous process, which cannot be simply initiated by setting up an infrastructure.

Social systems, such as a society is not a machine-type product, where improving some

parts is leading to a better overall performance. Instead, a society has to be seen as a

living organism. It takes time to grow and develop this organism, and to also obtain a

proper understanding of its elements and mechanisms.

This study is aimed to enhance this understanding, bringing forward options for fostering

and building a sustainable society. The following chapters will provide some options and

alternatives for enabling Dubai’s society to flourish.

5.3 Policy Recommendations

In what ever direction the government is leading Dubai, we strongly recommend not

aiming for a far-fetched Best Practice, but reaching for a down-to-earth Next Practice. A

Next Practice orientation includes a carefully self-monitoring of one’s own conditions and

the existing framework. For a starting point, this is the essential basic configuration. Face

the brutal facts and then continue from there. Consider the actual state of the society and

the resources available in order to regain the ability to act based on realistic objectives.

On the one hand the overall strategy should foster prosperity and growth and on the

other hand, develop and guarantee a sustainable and stable society. The question that

should be put forward is: How does a future society look like that we want to live in?

• First and most important is to create a common and shared vision. This vision should

be long-term orientated and integrative, capitalising and uniting all actors of society.

• The vision should be accompanied by a strong image. An image which

appreciates Dubai’s constituencies and attracts people for the future,

such as high potentials and their families. This image, for example could

be: “Dubai: Multi-Cultural Haven Connecting the World”.

• Nurture the development towards a long-term orientated society.

• Offer citizenships and long-term residencies according to a point based

system, depending on Arabic language proficiency, years of residency,

historic cultural test, testimonial giver, etc.

• Offer retirement residencies for people who worked and resided in Dubai

until their retirement.

• Instigate an affordable educational system for families who contribute to

the society on the long-term.


• Establish and maintain cultural institutions such as theatres, museums, opera

houses and art galleries in order to stabilise and protect society, especially during

difficult times and the current financial crisis.

• Set-up programmes to foster and initiate a dialogue between the different

subcultures.

• Foster Arabisation as part of an identity strategy and as an instrument for

cultural understanding and dialogue.

• Establish incentives for expatriates to learn the Arabic language.

• Foster the proportion of Arabs in ratio to the whole population e.g. set

immigration incentives according to this.

• Develop programmes to foster integration into Arabic traditions and

culture.

• Establish bi-lingual schools and universities (Arabic & English). As a side

effect this should cause Asian family kids to start learn Arabic.

• Capitalise on Arabic culture in tourism; set marketing campaigns

accordingly


6 References

6.1 Bibliography

Azizi, Banafsheh (2008): Economic development in Arab Gulf states, Georgia Institute of

Technology, Master's thesis, available at:

http://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/1853/24746/1/azizi_banafsheh_200808_mast.pdf

(accessed February 25, 2009)

Davidson, Christopher M. (2008): Dubai: the security dimensions of the region's premier

free port, in: Middle East Policy (Washington/D.C.), p. 143-160

Davidson, Christopher M. (2007): Dubai: the vulnerability of success - London: Hurst

Dubai Strategic Plan 2015: Highlights Dubai Strategic Plan, Dubai where the future begins,

available at:

http://egov.dubai.ae/opt/CMSContent/Active/CORP/en/Documents/DSPE.pdf


GEO Special (2007): Windeln für die Wüste, in Dubai, Emirate und Oman, Dossier Politik

und Gesellschaft, Issue February/March, p. 144-145

GEO Special (2007): Babylon am Gold, in: Dubai, Emirate und Oman, Dossier Politik und

Gesellschaft, Issue February/March, p. 146

Hvidt, Martin (2009): 'The Dubai Model: An outline of key components of the

development process in Dubai.' available at:

http://arab-reform.net/IMG/pdf/The_Dubai_Model_by_M_Hvidt_Oct07.pdf


Kingdon, John W. (1995): Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, 2nd Edition, Addison-

Wesley Longman Educational Publishers, Michigan


Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Dubai: How to Build Babylon’s Tower Properly? –Fostering a

discourse on cross-culturality, complexity, projects, and management, available at:

http://segroup.de/shared/files/papers/SEgroup_Dubai_HowtoBuildtheBabylonianTowerProperly.p

df (accessed July 14, 2009)

Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Explorative Culture Analysis [ECA] – Micro Anthropology

through Storytelling, available at: http://segroup.de/en/library/approaches

(accessed July 9, 2009)

Lachenmayer, Jan (2009): Approach: Culture Impact Evaluation, available soon

Masad, Mohammad (2008): Dubai, What Cosmopolitan City?, in International Institute for

the Study of Islam in the Modern World (ISIM) Review 22 / autumn 2008, p. 10-11,

available at: http://www.isim.nl/files/review_22/review_22-10.pdf

(accessed March 5, 2009)

Matly, Michael / Dillon, Laura (2007): Dubai strategy: past, present, and future,

Cambridge/Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, available at:

http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA_content/documents/Matly_Paper1.pdf


Rugh, Andrea B. (2007): The political culture of leadership in the United Arab Emirates,

Palgrave Macmillan, New York

Walters, Timothy N. / Kadragic, Alma / Walters, Lynne M. (2006): “Miracle or Mirage: Is

Development Sustainable in the United Arab Emirates?” Published in: Middle East Review

of International Affairs, Volume 10, No. 3, available at:

http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue3/jv10no3a6.html



6.2 Interview Statistics

For the documentation of 14 out of 20 interviews check:

http://Dubai-CCCP.blogspot.com


The Future of Dubai

Exploring Society, Future Pathways, and Alternatives

July 2011

xaidialoge

Jan Lachenmayer

Divisional Head

www.xaidialoge.de

[email protected]

+49 (0)30 - 29 35 22 25

xailabs GmbH

Oranienstr. 161

D-10969 Berlin