the future of gradient studies in examining plant-plant interactions for the next 100 years
TRANSCRIPT
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wake up
@cjlortie
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need
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changing interactions in a changing world
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snapshots
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inspiration
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Sonia Kefi
science
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Lonnie Aarssen
teaching
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Mad Max
art
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imagination
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connections: no cape required
Michalet et al. 2015
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imagination is our job
connect hypotheses, places, people, species, & data
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gradients
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gradients & variation make me happy
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really happy
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my mom was convinced I was a spy, and my children think science is an adventure.
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natural & environmental gradients are special
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we live in a big world
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scientists are relatively small
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change is a BIG process not an event
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we need solutions that compress large scales but nonetheless capture change as a process
digital analog
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gradients as solution
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shortcut concept undermines true value
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collectively, we need to imagine novel uses for gradients to examine change
(any of our ideas)
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theory
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a gradient is the change in a suite of parameters on a surface as it moves through space or time
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an ecological gradient is typically assumed within a study when a change in the organism(s) of interest varies as one changes position
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necessary condition for an ecological gradient is, however, the directional change in the underlying variation in parameter(s)
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point processes
scalar integration
superimposition
vectorization
Env
ironm
enta
l m
easu
res
(i)
(ii)
Env
ironm
enta
l m
easu
res
All
mea
sure
s
(iii)
(iv)
Spatial position
Net
gra
dien
t ef
fect
e
b environmental & biotic overlays
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gradient assembly is a four-step process
extent of extraction therefore varies
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the assumption that gradients can always be reduced to simple linear vectors can lead to propagation of errors
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the scalar field of environmental data is variable, not consistent
degree of sorting error
environmental aenvironmental b
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environmental measures do not necessarily move in concert within a given spatial context
countervailing gradients
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two points in space do not necessarily constitute a gradient
positions are arbitrarily assigned to relatively high or low
blocking error
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veiled gradients
a proportion of the potentially causal variation undetermined
McCoy 2002
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collective errors are opportunities
3
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gradients vary in diversity & length
1
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compression
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extent of compression conveys variation
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gradients as hypothesis-testing tools by providing at least two dimensions of change
2
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capture
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replicated regression & response surfaces
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specific responses to gradients by species or groups
3
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shared start & finish lines but how you get there can vary
(n = 350)
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compression & capture
contrasts & sensitivity analyses
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progress
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4 explicit themes capture ~ 40% research
1.2M peer-reviewed ecology publications
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interactions 167k
biodiversity 102k
climate change 93k
gradients 81k
1.2 M ecology publications
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taxa tested with gradients
insects 4k
animals 21k
microbes 0.8k
plants 32k
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stress 5k
biodiversity 10k
climate change 6k
disturbance 6k
concepts tested with gradients
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stress 93k
biodiversity 165k
climate change 129k
disturbance 138k
citations to concepts tested with gradients
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bean counting is fun but flawed
but evidence from within studies is even better
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stressed about stress
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stress gradient hypothesis
Bertness & Callaway 1994
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He at al. 2013
Global shifts towards positive species interactions with increasing environmental stress
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novelty
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contiguous vs unified disaggregated gradients
Oberle et al 2009SEMS
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interaction loss vs species loss on gradients
Valiente-Banuet et al 2015delta
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partitioning interactions
Michalet et al 2014effect sizes
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novel human gradients
Kiers et al 2014anthropogenic drivers
& evolution
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response surfaces on biotic gradients
Schob et al 2014Type III GLMMS
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functional & phylogenetic gradients
Soliveres et al 2014SEMS
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synoptic landscape gradients
Luck et al 2002gradient analyses
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hyperspace evolution & diversity
Whittaker 1967gradient analyses
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implications
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species AND interactions change on gradients & collectively respond to global change
the change of change
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stop blocking
low vs high blocks will only get us so far
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contrast gradient lengths & drivers
local vs regional management
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think tropically
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open data, methods, & collaboration
same methods, different places
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a master builder uses all the pieces
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