the future of (mobile) computingcdn.bdigital.org › pdf › bdgc15 ›...
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NURIA OLIVER, PHD
SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR
TELEFONICA R&D
THE FUTURE OF (MOBILE)
COMPUTING
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NURIA OLIVER, PHD
SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR
TELEFONICA R&D
TRENDS AND DREAMS IN
MOBILE COMPUTING
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1. My personal evolution within Mobile Computing
2. Where are we now?
3. How did we get here?
4. Where are we going?
-From looking down to looking up
-The rise of wearables
-From living to logging life
-From quantified self to understanding self
-Voice is back
-From visual to multisensorial to neural
-From dumb smartphones to smart devices
-Redefinition of who we are as a species, individually and globally
5. Conclusions
OUTLINE
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MY PERSONAL
EVOLUTION WITHIN
MOBILE COMPUTING
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1998-2000
SmartCars and Driving
Instrumented Cars
with Sensors
1996-19981st Smart Clothes Fashion Show
Dypers: Dynamic and Personal
Augmented Reality System
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2004-now
Persuasive Computing
Wearables with
Mobile Phones
HealthGear
2008-now
Large Scale Human
Behavior Modeling
Big Data for Social Good
Socioeconomic Status Inference
Crime Prediction
Pandemic Modeling
2004-now
User Modeling and
Human Behavior
Recognition
Personality Inference
Financial Risk Inference
Boredom Prediction
Availability Prediction
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WHERE ARE WE NOW?
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6.8 billion subscribers
96% of world’s population (ITU)
Mobile penetration of 120% to 89% of population(ITU)
Emerging and developed regions
More time spent on our phones than watching TV or
with our with our partner (US and UK)
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NOMOPHOBIA
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HOW DID WE GET
HERE?
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WHERE ARE WE
GOING?
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From looking down to looking up
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Augmented Reality
Immersive Virtual Reality
AR and VR with Retinal Displays
Avegant
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The global HMD market is expected to reach $12.28
billion by 2020 at an estimated annual growth of 57%from 2014 to 2020, where Americas is projected to be
a market leader followed by Europe and then APAC
A Virtual Retinal Display (VRD), also known as a
retinal scan display (RSD) or retinal projector (RP), is a
display technology that draws a raster display (like a
television) directly onto the retina of the eye.
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The rise of wearables, the disappearing phone….
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Credit Suisse IT Hardware Analyst Kulbinder Garcha predicts
that the market for wearable technology will increase
tenfold to as much as 50 billion US dollars by 2016-18.
Google Glass, Apple smart watch and popular wristbands
that track athletic activity show that consumers are already
intrigued by wearable devices.
But the technology's true potential lies in its ability to gather
streams of currently uncollected data about a subject most
of us are happy to explore in great depth: ourselves.
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Wealth of available wearable devices already….
…but they are all isolated, stand-alone apps…
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…the real power will come when the sensors talk to
each other and are able to understand, predict and
adapt to human behavior…
TEDx Barcelona May 2013http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kk-eJoK4fug
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From living life to logging life to analyzing life…
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Infographic by Memeto
Lifelogging to the mainstream by capturing your life every 30 seconds
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mChip from Columbia Univ for HIV
Analyzing life: Labs-on-a-chip will be common-place
EPFL’s implantable blood test device
Mobile phone’s refurbished as
microcospes (UCLA Prof. Ozcan)Nature’s (March 2014) devoted to the topic
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From Quantified Self to Understood Self
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What do people track? Why do people track?
Pitfalls and challenges
1. Tracking too many things
2. Not tracking triggers and context (which might need additional sensors)
3. Lack of good tools for data analysis and visualization of data coming from
different sources
4. Lack of scientific rigor on data analysis which can lead to wrong conclusions
and interventions
5. Sustained usage. Many people give up after a couple of months. Try different
devices. Keeping motivation to wear and do something useful with data is a
huge challenge stillWork by EK Choe et al, CHI 2014T. Fritz et al, CHI 2014
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The return of voice
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The main communication and input modality in
today’s smartphones is text
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The global voice recognition
market is expected to reach
$113.2 billion in 2017 after growing
at a five-year compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2
percent
according to projections from U.K. analyst firm CompaniesandMarkets.com
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From visual to multisensorial to brain
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TouchAdrian Cheok
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Smell
Smell RecognitionSmell Communication
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Taste
Communicating flavors
FoodMedia: Communicating through food
Adrian Cheok
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Brain InteractionWe can command robots, fly helicopters, move prosthetic limbs, play
videogames and even send information remotely only using our thoughts
Measures brainwaves via 16
electrodes (push, lifting…can
be sensed)
Neurosky detects eye
blinking (drowsiness),
comfort, meditative states
(alpha and beta waves)
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Brain to Brain Communication
Grau et al, PLOS One
The team, comprising researchers from
Harvard Medical School teaching
affiliate Beth Israel Deaconess Medical
Center, Starlab Barcelona in Spain, and Axilum Robotics in Strasbourg, France,
used a number of technologies that
enabled them to send messages from
India to France -- a distance of 5,000
miles (8046.72km) -- without performing
invasive surgery on the test subjects
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From dumb smartphones to smart smartphones
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Smartphones today are not smart. They have limited intelligence, and a poor
ability to understand the user’s context (activity, emotional state, tastes,
needs…) and adapt to it.
Thanks to significant progress in AI, smart smartphones with increased context-
awareness will become a reality
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Graph by Ray Kurzweil
Exponential Growth in Computing Power
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The dream of an intelligent personal assistant
who quietly observes us, understands us and
predicts our behavior and needs will be reality
Personality
Financial
Responsability
Availability
Boredom Physical Activity(running, walking,
driving…)
Emotional State
(Information) Needs
Task at hand
Driving style
Learning style
Photo by C.Bucheli
Health state
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Her
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Redefinition of WHO we are as a species
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Symbiotic Relationship• Brain plasticity combined with a strong co-
dependency with our devices is leading to
brain changes, which is affecting our
memory, ability to
concentrate/distractability, needs,
satisfaction, emotional state and
interpersonal relationships
• Without our devices we already feel naked,
unprotected, anxious and paralyzed.
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The mobile phone as a sensor of humanity…
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The ubiquity of mobile phones enables us to collect
and analyze, for the first time in human history,
large-scale aggregated and anonymized human
behavioral data of entire cities, countries or even
continents
The opportunity is HUGE to help decision making
units (governments, UN, Red Cross…) make more
informed decisions thanks to the existence of
quantitative real-time information about populations
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Big Data for Social Good
Crime Prediction
Analysis of impact of floods
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-10/17/nuria-oliver
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CONCLUSION
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• The future of mobile computing is the future of computing and
will be intimately related to the future of us as a species
• Technology has and will continue to have a tremendous
positive impact in our lives, both at the individual and
aggregate levels but…
• We need to be aware of the re-definition of humankind as we
continue to nurture this unprecedented intimate relationship
with extremely capable (more capable than ourselves), always
on, fully interconnected devices that we carry with us all the
time and are embedded everywhere
• As this re-definition happens we can draw on what this
symbiotic relationship is going to provide us for social good