the future of social media presentation by futurist gerd leonhard blogres slovenia june 2008

www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard

[email protected]

www.mediafuturist.com The Future of Social Media (# 1 / Friday):

From Commerce to People to... People Commerce?

1Friday, June 20, 2008

http://www.mediafuturist.com



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www.mediafuturist.com Digital Media Sharing & the Social Web:

We are only at the Beginning!

The rest of this Iceberg will emerge much quicker than

you may think



Key Trends1. All that can goes digital... very fast

2. All that can connect, will

3. Storage is becoming almost free

4. Bandwidth is becoming cheaper all the time

5. Most ‘computing’ goes mobile

6. Devices become “Me” i.e. personal (invisible technology)

7. Media goes ‘social’

8. Content will “feel like free” (i.e. bundled & flat-rated)

9. ‘Old’ style Advertising & Marketing won’t work here!





TV versus the Internet




www.mediafuturist.com The Attention Surplus that was eaten up by TV is now moving to the web

Time and attention for the Web comes from the Cognitive Surplus TV has been masking for 50 years (Clay Shirky)

www.searchviews.com




http://www.searchviews.com

http://www.searchviews.com

www.mediafuturist.com Social Media tops the Charts





Massive Disruption by

The People Formerly Known as Consumers





http://www.forbes.com/technology/forbes/2008/0616/050.html

Thirty-eight percent of the video streamed on the Web now comes from YouTube (ComScore)

YouTube will upload 600 years' worth of video this year10 hours of video uploaded every 10 secondsAn ad on the YouTube home page now costs $175,000 a day





Friendster Facebook Myspace Cyworld Mixi QQ... are

BROADCASTERS

Social Networks: The new Radio +TV





Source:Don TapscottWikinomics

Blog





(Co)Creating -Remixing - Cutting & Pasting - Bookmarking - Sharing - Connecting .... Consuming?



First, let’s forget the word ‘Consumer’

• It’s a 2-way conversation now!

•Happy users will now do some of the marketing for you

• Interested users now supply ideas and ‘content’, too: engaged

users now provide images, videos, text, music...

•Loyal users now want to have conversations with you

•The Internet is finally becoming a ‘social’ and cultural web

where Brands that influence Culture do better

•In 2-3 years, there will be no more offline or online

•The kids are now the Authorities!15Friday, June 20, 2008




Everything is switching to PULL





Having Pull means: Connect. Share. Commune.



Not

But

Trust





Now, what IS Content?

Videos, Audio, Music, Text, Images...

and now:

The DATA that is around it i.e

Meta Content





The Users become content, too...





The key to the Future of Advertising

Explicit Permission to use Attention Data &

Clickstream-Data in return for Content (Media &

Entertainment) and Services




www.mediafuturist.com Aggregation is a huge opportunity





So let’s talk about Control





“Choice not Control”Contro

l


www.mediafuturist.com We urgently need to get used to Having Less Control

TRUST Conversation Merit


www.mediafuturist.com Goodbye ‘Control’





You can’t force total control anymoreA.P. vice president Jim Kennedy says they will issue guidelines telling bloggers what is acceptable and what isnʼt, over and above what the law says is acceptable. They will “attempt to define clear standards as to how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web sites can excerpt without infringing on The A.P.ʼs copyright.”

The A.P. doesnʼt get to make itʼs own rules around how its content is used, if those rules are stricter than the law allows. So even thought they say they are making these new guidelines in the spirit of cooperation, itʼs clear that, like the RIAA and MPAA, they are trying to claw their way to a set of property rights that donʼt exist today and that they are not legally entitled to. So hereʼs our new policy on A.P. stories: they donʼt exist. We donʼt see them, we donʼt quote them, we donʼt link to them. Theyʼre banned until they abandon this new strategy



www.mediafuturist.com The New York Times Example

The paid wall went down - traffic went up. And then?

Openness forces you to be more inventive





Your opportunity as a Brand

Provide “Choice” - not Control

Provide Real Meaning & Context - not sheer Volume

Provide Sharing Platforms - not Walls





Many traditional roles will be up for discussion



And a lot will depend....Culture ... UI!


www.mediafuturist.com Some to-do’s...

• Prepare for the digital flood is coming - now

is a good time to stake out your role

• Pretend to be 16 again - dive in! Get wet

before learning how to swim.

• Reinvent and disrupt your company before

you are re-invented by others

• If you own content: participate or be

participated34Friday, June 20, 2008



www.mediafuturist.com 4.5 Billion next year.





The (smart) phone is the first real personal medium





A real concern: Privacy





Because the Future of Advertising is solidly dependent on getting real information from the Users- voluntarily



Imagine:

You could find people that make a 95% match for your

product or service, and that have agreed to pay attention

They would be interested in hearing from you, and open to

discussing your product or service

They would tell others about your product and transport

your message onward, on your behalf

Markets could be Conversations!





W e a r e h e a d i n g i n t o a B r o a d b a n d C u l t u r e





Brands that influence Culture get Attention





NarrowbandLinear Interactive

Monologs Conversations

Advertising Ads = Content Professional Creators User & ‘Usator’ Content

Pay with cash Pay with attention

Push Marketing Pull & Attract by Merit

Own & restrict Share

Media...

BOTH

will

CO- EXIST

B r o a d b a n d





Redefining ‘Advertising’

•Offline and in traditional media, people are skipping and

avoiding ads everywhere (TV); print ad reach is declining,

radio stagnates

•Online, people’s attention is very very hard to get (and getting

worse) ~ the Attention Deficit Trend is a real challenge

•The web is essentially forcing us to reinvent advertising

•We must can come up with Ads that provide VALUE,

RELEVANCE, CONTEXT





Push Marketing is dying. Everything is converting

to Pull.



1

2

3

Marketing 2.0: Listen - Broadcast - Pull





Imagine: an instant Micro Feed to the ‘People formerly known as Consumers’

twitter.com/gleonhard twitter.com/dailywisdoms





There are major issues such as Privacy... but:

The potential evils of an Open Network - of ‘Too

Much Freedom’ - will always pale beside those of

a Closed, Controlled and Authoritarian Network



Thanks for listening!Gerd Leonhard

[email protected]


Creativity Is The Most Powerful Force [In Business]

*DDB






