the geopolitics of energy: achieving a just and...
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The GeoPolitics of Energy: Achieving a Just and Sustainable Energy
Distribution by 2040
Dr. James Conca & Dr. Judith Wright NuScale Exposition UFA Ventures, Inc. Corvallis, Oregon Richland, WA http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/ August 2015
Kentucky 93% coal 4% gas 0% nuclear 2% hydro 1% renew.
European Union 30% coal 20% gas 28% nuclear 9% hydroelectric 3% oil 10% renewables
coal
gas
nuclear
hydro oil and other
petroleum
bio
United States 39% coal 27% gas 19% nuclear 7% hydroelectric 4% wind 4% other
World (2013)
China 74% coal 4% gas/biomass 2% wind 2% nuclear 17% hydro 1% other
Washington 4% coal 3% gas 8% nuclear 79% hydro 6% renew.
Illinois 43% coal 1% gas 49% nuclear 7% renew.
Korea 26% coal 23% gas 7% oil 36% nuclear 8% hydro + renewables
41%
21%
5%
12%
16%
2%
0.5% 2%
1980
20
30
40
10
2000 2020 2040
20
30
40
10
historic projected
World presently at 17 trillion kWhrs/year
U.S. presently at 4 trillion kWhrs/year
present fossil fuel contribution
2/3 of present total
In order to address any of the environmental issues we seem to care about: over 20 trkWhrs must be non-fossil fuel
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub–Saharan Africa. 2.4 billion people burn wood and manure as their main energy source. 3 billion more people will be born by 2040
Source: 2005 Kay Chernush for the U.S. Department of State
Map of Global Energy Poverty
Source: United Nations; McFarlane 2006
Millions of people without electricity
Millions of people relying on biomass
56 96
28 20
18 570
801
815
530 509
221
332
3,000 Millions of people to be born by 2040
80% of the world’s population of over 6 billion people is below 0.8 on the U.N. Human Development Index (HDI)
Source: United Nations Development Program; McFarlane 2006
4,000 8,000 12,000
China
Pakistan
Russia Germany Australia
Canada
France Japan
U.S.
Annual Electricity Use (kWh/Capita) 16,000
Prosperity
Education
Life span
Niger
Papua New Guinea
Ethiopia
Angola
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Indonesia
UK CA
Iran
With modern efficiencies, conservation and technologies, 3,000 kWh/year can provide an HDI > 0.8; > 6,000 kWh/year is unnecessary and wasteful Access to energy is essential to quality of life
China (500)
China (800)
Korea
DPRK
Egypt India
How much energy do we need by 2040? - what levels are needed to end poverty, war and terrorism, i.e., raise everyone up to 0.8 HDI?
Energy/capita needed Annual to raise HDI to >0.8 Approximate energy Subpopulation group or maintain at 0.9 subpopulation requirement
Industrialized world - cut to 6,000 kWhrs/yr 1,000,000,000 6 tkW-hrs
Intermediate - maintain 3,000 kWhrs/yr 1,000,000,000 3 tkW-hrs
Developing world - increase to 3,000 kWhrs/yr 4,000,000,000 12 tkW-hrs
Those born by 2040 - achieve 3,000 kWhrs/yr 3,000,000,000 9 tkW-hrs
Total Annual Global Energy Requirement 30 tkW-hrs
This requires renewables and nuclear worldwide to quadruple over what anyone is expecting by 2040: 4 million+ MW wind turbines; over 1,700 new nuclear reactors; a 100 bbl of biofuels; 3 tkWhrs from hydro; 4 tkWhrs from other
World Target → a Third, a Third and a Third - 1/3 fossil fuel, 1/3 renewables and 1/3 nuclear
World (2013) 17 tkWhrs/yr
petroleum
(e-,H2-cars)
World (2040) 30 tkWhrs/yr
bio
geo
coal
gas
nuclear
hydro
wind
solar
nuclear
solar
Biofels
2015
What is the fastest growing energy source in the world?
Coal
1965 0
1975 1985 1995 2005
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000 Glob
al C
onsu
mpt
ion
(T
Wh)
Wind
Solar Geo and Biomass
Hydro Nuclear
Gas
How much does it cost to build a unit/farm/array that will produce about 500 billion kWhs over its lifespan?
(actual production costs, not financing costs, subsidies, production credits, mandates) -when comparing, costs must be corrected for capacity factor and lifespan
Key assumptions for different energy systems from recent builds and buys
cf Lifespan Inst. Cap. Constr. Costs ($2014) Source
Coal 0.57 50 years 1,340 MW $4.5 billion TransAlta
Natural Gas 0.73 40 years 248 MW $0.23 billion Clark PUD
Nuclear 0.96 60 years 574 MW $2.5 billion NuScale
Wind 0.27 25 years 400 MW $1.0 billion Windy Pt (CPG)
Solar 0.25 25 years 579 MW $2.2 billion Buffet (CA)
Hydro 0.44 88 years 955 MW $6.2 billion (Grant County PUD)
Reference spot prices:
Oil - $70/b Coal - $40/t NG - $4/mcf Steel - $500/t
Copper - $2.50/lb Cement - $70/t
Sources: Northwest Power and Conservation Council; WA State Energy Office; individual owners and operators
How much does it actually cost to produce electricity?
Solar cf = 20%
$34 b Wind cf = 27%
$24 b
Nuclear cf = 96%
$4.3 b Gas
cf = 73%
$1.8 b
Coal cf = 57%
$6.8 b
Hydro cf = 44%
$9.3 b
Bill
ions
of D
olla
rs
$ 2
$ 4
$ 6
$ 8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$40
Construction Costs to produce similar power (500 bkWhs; 2014$) function of installation cost, installed capacity (kW), capacity factor (cf), lifespan, 8,766 hours/year
$4.5 billion 1,340 MW coal plant with a cf = 57% and lifespan = 50 yrs 1,340 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.57 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 50 yrs = 335 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 1.5 units at $6.8 billion
$230 million 248 MW natural gas CC with a cf = 73% and lifespan = 40 yrs 248 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.73 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 40 yrs = 63 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 8 units at $1.8 billion
$2.5 billion 574 MW SMR nuclear with a cf = 96% and lifespan = 60 yrs 574 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.96 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 60 yrs = 290 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 1.7 units at $4.3 billion
$1 billion 400 MW GE turbine with a cf = 27% and lifespan = 25 yrs 400 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.27 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 25 yrs = 24 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 21 units at $24 billion
$2.2 billion 579 MW solar with a cf = 25% and lifespan = 25 yrs 579 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.25 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 25 yrs = 32 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 15 units at $34 billion
$6.2 billion 955 MW hydroelectric with a cf = 44% and lifespan = 88 yrs 955 MW x 1000 kW/MW x 0.44 x 8,766 hrs/yr x 88 yrs = 324 billion kWhrs
∴ to produce 500 billion kWhrs ⇒ 1.5 units at $9.3 billion
Fuel Costs per kWhr Produced (2014$) Coal - $40/t NG - $4/mcf U - $100/lb yellowcake
Nuclear cf = 96%
1.4¢ Wind
cf = 27%
0¢
Solar cf = 20%
Gas cf = 73%
4¢
Coal cf = 57%
3¢ Hydro cf = 44%
Fuel Costs
Cen
ts p
er k
Whr
5¢
6¢
4¢
3¢
2¢
1¢
0¢ 0¢
Cen
ts p
er k
Whr
O&M Costs per kWhr Produced (2014$)
Nuclear cf = 96%
2.3¢
Wind cf = 27%
2.7¢
Solar cf = 20%
1.3¢ Gas
cf = 73%
Coal cf = 57%
0.7¢
2.0¢
2.4¢
2.8¢
1.6¢
1.2¢
0.8¢
0.4¢
Hydro cf = 44%
0.8¢
O&M Costs
0.6¢
3.2¢
Actual Costs per kWhr Produced (2014$)
Nuclear cf = 96%
4.6¢
Wind cf = 27%
7.5¢
Solar cf = 20%
8.5¢ Gas
cf = 73% Coal
cf = 57%
5.1¢ Hydro cf = 44%
Cen
ts p
er k
Whr
10¢
12¢
14¢
8¢
6¢
4¢
2¢ 2.7¢
Total Life Cycle Costs (¢/kWhr) for each source to produce 500 bkWhs
5.0¢
The average price for electricity in the U.S. is 12¢/kWhr – WA - 7¢/kWhr (h,n,w) WV - 8¢/kWhr (c) NY - 19¢/kWhr (g,n,h) MI - 16¢/kWhr (c,n,g) IA - 7¢/kWhr (c,w)
What is driving the price of electricity if it’s not the actual cost of producing the electricity?
Actual Costs per kWhr Produced (2014$)
Nuclear cf = 96%
4.6¢
Wind cf = 27%
7.5¢
Solar cf = 20%
8.5¢ Gas
cf = 73% Coal
cf = 57%
5.1¢ Hydro cf = 44%
Cen
ts p
er k
Whr
10¢
12¢
14¢
8¢
6¢
4¢
2¢ 2.7¢
5.0¢
To produce 6.5 tkWhrs/year by mid-century in the United States with the present mix (⅔ fossil, ⅓ others) will cost over $7.5 trillion
of which $1.7 trillion is capital investment
But to produce 6.5 tkWhrs/year by mid-century in the United States with the ⅓ - ⅓ - ⅓ mix (fossil-renewable-nuclear) will cost about $7.4 trillion
of which $3.4 trillion is capital investment However, this mix uses half of the fossil fuel (saves 2 billion tonsCO2/yr)
and the health care savings alone from lower coal and gas (~$3 trillion) more than pays for the extra capital investment
The materials, resource and capital needs: • the price of oil • the price of natural gas • the price of steel • the price of concrete • the price of copper
The most sensitive to these prices is wind energy, followed by coal, then gas. The least affected is nuclear.
Concrete + steel + copper are > 98% of construction inputs, and become more expensive in a carbon-constrained economy
200
400
600
800
1000
100 200 300 400 500
Mass of Steel (MT/MW)
Con
cret
e Vo
lum
e (m
3 /MW
)
Natural Gas Combined Cycle Nuclear Coal Wind
What can change these costs?
Environmental and Health Costs Externalities (non-direct costs) not included in any cost estimates but may be reflected in up-coming legislation
such as Cap&Trade or C-Tax, and Footprint costs Possible legislation has carbon costs up to $15/ton CO2 emitted The EU has assigned about $100/acre for simple footprint costs
Cen
ts p
er k
Whr
Nuclear cf = 92%
0.02¢
Wind cf = 27%
0.02¢
Solar cf = 20%
0.08¢
Gas cf = 84%
0.90¢
Coal cf = 71%
1.46¢ CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 1 mile2
36 miles2
62 miles2
1.25¢
1.50¢
1.75¢
2.00¢
1.00¢
0.75¢
0.50¢
0.25¢
Hydro cf = 44%
0.14 ¢
CO2
24 miles2
2011($) Carbon Tax Costs (¢ per kWhr Produced)
8 miles2
4 miles2
Area (sq miles) to produce 1 billion kWhrs/yr
4 gramsCO2 per kWhr
40 deaths per 1012 kWhr
10x
Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths per trillion kWh)
Coal – global average 100,000 (50% of global electricity)
Coal – China 170,000 (75% of China’s electricity)
Coal – U.S. 10,000 (39% of U.S. electricity)
Oil 36,000 (36% of global energy, 8% of global electricity)
Natural Gas 4,000 (20% of global electricity)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% of global energy)
Solar 440 (< 1% of global electricity)
Wind 150 (~ 1% of global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (15% of global electricity, 171,000 Banqiao dead)
Nuclear – global average 40 (17% of global electricity w/Chernobyl&Fukushima
Nuclear – U.S. 0.01 (19% of U.S. electricity) Sources –World Health Organization; CDC; 1970 - 2011
Social - risks facing Americans over the past 5 years
alcohol consumption
automobile driving
coal industry
construction
food poisoning
iatrogenic
murder
mining
nuclear industry
police work
smoking tobacco
Number of Deaths in U.S. Activity over the past 5 years
iatrogenic 950,000
smoking 760,000
alcohol 500,000
automobile accidents 250,000
coal use (~ 50% of U.S. power) 60,000
murder 80,000
food poisoning 25,000
construction 5,000
police work 800
mining 360
nuclear industry (~ 20% of U.S. power) 1
(medicine gone wrong)
Relative Number of Deaths in U.S. Danger Activity Normalized to Sub-Population Index
1) smoking (43.4 million smokers) 760,000 0.01751
2) alcohol (60 million impacted Americans) 500,000 0.00833
3) iatrogenic (180 million receive medical treatment per/yr) 950,000 0.00527
4) automobile accidents (190 million drivers) 250,000 0.00138
5) police work (680,000 police officers) 800 0.00118
6) mining (350,000 miners) 360 0.00103
7) construction (7.7 million workers) 5,000 0.00065
8) murder (300 million impacted) 80,000 0.00027
9) coal use (240 million impacted) 60,000 0.00025
10) food poisoning (304 million eat every day) 25,000 0.00008
11) nuclear industry (~ 20% of U.S. power) (60 million) 1 0.0000001
U.S. Nuclear
Accidents per 200,000 worker-hours
U.S. Manufacturing
U.S. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
OSHA Accident Rates
Even non-lethal routine accidents are dramatically lower in the nuclear industry
than in any other industry
1) Incorrect, but intentional, association with nuclear weapons during the Cold War - 1945
2) Inaccurate and purposefully simplistic modeling of health effects of low radiation doses (LNT) - 1959
3) Misunderstanding of the nature and amount of nuclear power waste - 1976
• not much of it (< 1 km3 worldwide) - over 20,000 km3 of direct solid coal waste
• we know what to do with it - 1999
Why is Everyone So Afraid of Nuclear Energy?
Because we told them to be!
Depending upon final design, whether spent fuel rods, salt waste or pebbles, waste volume will still be smaller than GenII/III LWRs. All could be packaged for a repository or even a deep borehole.
Will SMR waste pose difficulties for waste disposal?
No, in fact, it will be easier to dispose of, no matter what form it takes.
Probable Outcomes for U.S. Nuclear Waste
Defense Tank Waste (TRU and HLW)
Commercial nuclear fuel
•
stays right where it is (EIS’ show no real problem)
WIPP
Second salt repository
Burn in fast reactors Deep borehole
Interim storage
SMRs and other new designs