the georgia association of realtors monthly indicators for april 2014
DESCRIPTION
Georgia housing market indicators for April 2014.TRANSCRIPT
April 2014 Activity Snapshot
One-Year Change in One-Year Change inClosed Sales Median Sales Price
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Changes in methodology were implemented in October 2012 to provide a more accurate count of inventory and related metrics. Due to MLS purging rules, activity before 2008 cannot be updated and therefore shifts in the trendlines may occur. Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Pending SalesClosed SalesDays on Market Until SaleMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePercent of Original List Price Received
The public has finally grown used to talk of a real estate market in recovery. With prices going up, people are starting to wonder if a new bubble is forming. Most metropolitan markets are somewhere between recovery and normalization. Supply is still tight but improving in some areas. What housing really needs is further job and wage growth to support healthy demand levels fueled by new household formations.
New Listings increased 12.5 percent to 13,889. Pending Sales were up 21.2 percent to 10,304. Inventory levels grew 0.9 percent to 41,303 units.
Prices remained determined. The Median Sales Price increased 14.5 percent to $158,000. Days on Market was down 8.4 percent to 76 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 1.8 percent to 5.6 months.
April's job growth was above expectations. Growth is likely to accelerate through the year, but the types of jobs being created is also important. We're producing more low-wage jobs as opposed to high-wage jobs. That's not conducive to increasing the number of potential buyers. It also means less disposable income sloshing around. Even so, some local markets may pause but are unlikely to falter thanks to suppressed supply levels and an improving sales mix. Don't confuse temporarily weak demand indicators for stagnation.
Homes for Sale
A research tool provided by the Georgia Association of REALTORS®. Residential real estate activity comprised of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.
Activity OverviewNew Listings
Housing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of Inventory
Monthly Indicators
+ 3.9% + 14.5% + 0.9%One-Year Change in
Activity Overview
Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 4-2013 4-2014 Percent Change YTD 2013 YTD 2014 Percent Change
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
- 0.4%
Affordability Index 289 228 - 21.1% 315 240 - 23.8%
Pct. of Orig. Price Received 95.1% 94.5% - 0.6% 94.4% 94.0%
--
-- --
Inventory of Homes for Sale 40,924 41,303 + 0.9% -- --
Months Supply of Inventory 5.7 5.6 - 1.8% --
+ 18.6%
Average Sales Price $179,614 $199,475 + 11.1% $167,123 $192,882 + 15.4%
Median Sales Price $138,000 $158,000 + 14.5% $126,500 $150,000
- 1.2%
Days on Market Until Sale 83 76 - 8.4% 88 81 - 8.0%
Closed Sales 7,342 7,626 + 3.9% 25,855 25,532
Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.
New Listings 12,347 13,889 + 12.5% 48,910 + 6.2%
Pending Sales 8,501 10,304 + 21.2% 29,664 32,829 + 10.7%
46,033
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
4-2011 4-2012 4-2013 4-2014
New Listings
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 12,535 11,932 +5.1%
June 2013 11,857 11,565 +2.5%
July 2013 11,979 10,856 +10.3%
August 2013 11,375 10,943 +3.9%
September 2013 10,576 9,323 +13.4%
October 2013 11,281 10,192 +10.7%
November 2013 9,174 7,946 +15.5%
December 2013 7,289 6,597 +10.5%
January 2014 10,560 10,931 -3.4%
February 2014 10,598 10,338 +2.5%
March 2014 13,863 12,417 +11.6%
April 2014 13,889 12,347 +12.5%
12-Month Avg 11,248 10,449 +7.6%
Historical New Listings by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
New Listings
12,886 12,347 13,889
2012 2013 2014
April
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
49,507 46,033
48,910
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
+ 6.2% - 4.2% + 12.5% - 7.0% - 5.1% - 10.6%
Pending Sales
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 8,313 8,240 +0.9%
June 2013 7,926 7,983 -0.7%
July 2013 7,716 7,511 +2.7%
August 2013 7,545 7,492 +0.7%
September 2013 6,499 5,879 +10.5%
October 2013 7,013 7,069 -0.8%
November 2013 5,902 6,179 -4.5%
December 2013 5,484 5,449 +0.6%
January 2014 6,390 6,661 -4.1%
February 2014 6,853 6,741 +1.7%
March 2014 9,282 7,761 +19.6%
April 2014 10,304 8,501 +21.2%
12-Month Avg 7,436 7,122 +4.4%
Historical Pending Sales by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.
Pending Sales
7,946 8,501
10,304
2012 2013 2014
April
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
30,104 29,664 32,829
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
+ 10.7% + 7.0% + 21.2% - 1.5% + 11.4% + 13.3%
Closed Sales
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 8,684 7,981 +8.8%
June 2013 8,199 8,454 -3.0%
July 2013 8,474 8,078 +4.9%
August 2013 8,169 8,411 -2.9%
September 2013 6,817 6,697 +1.8%
October 2013 7,031 7,286 -3.5%
November 2013 6,216 6,550 -5.1%
December 2013 6,874 6,250 +10.0%
January 2014 5,103 5,477 -6.8%
February 2014 5,698 5,843 -2.5%
March 2014 7,105 7,193 -1.2%
April 2014 7,626 7,342 +3.9%
12-Month Avg 7,166 7,130 +0.5%
Historical Closed Sales by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.
Closed Sales
7,179 7,342 7,626
2012 2013 2014
April
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
26,332 25,855 25,532
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
- 1.2% + 2.3% + 3.9% - 1.8% + 8.0% + 17.8%
Days on Market Until Sale
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 79 91 -13.2%
June 2013 77 89 -13.5%
July 2013 73 90 -18.9%
August 2013 75 92 -18.5%
September 2013 72 90 -20.0%
October 2013 77 96 -19.8%
November 2013 77 93 -17.2%
December 2013 82 95 -13.7%
January 2014 83 92 -9.8%
February 2014 84 89 -5.6%
March 2014 82 88 -6.8%
April 2014 76 83 -8.4%
12-Month Avg* 78 91 -14.3%
Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Days on Market
* Average Days on Market of all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
96
83 76
2012 2013 2014
April
70
80
90
100
110
120
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
100 88
81
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
- 8.0% - 13.5% - 8.4% - 12.0% - 5.9% - 4.8%
Median Sales Price
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 $148,000 $109,128 +35.6%
June 2013 $155,000 $114,000 +36.0%
July 2013 $159,950 $116,000 +37.9%
August 2013 $153,500 $112,500 +36.4%
September 2013 $145,000 $112,500 +28.9%
October 2013 $147,300 $110,000 +33.9%
November 2013 $143,000 $116,000 +23.3%
December 2013 $149,500 $120,299 +24.3%
January 2014 $141,630 $113,700 +24.6%
February 2014 $145,000 $120,000 +20.8%
March 2014 $153,000 $133,000 +15.0%
April 2014 $158,000 $138,000 +14.5%
12-Month Med* $150,000 $118,000 +27.1%
Historical Median Sales Price by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Median Sales Price
* Median Sales Price of all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
$105,000
$138,000
$158,000
2012 2013 2014
April
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
$94,900
$126,500
$150,000
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
+ 18.6% + 31.4% + 14.5% + 33.3% 0.0% - 9.6%
Average Sales Price
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 $192,284 $152,388 +26.2%
June 2013 $200,706 $158,869 +26.3%
July 2013 $200,599 $159,814 +25.5%
August 2013 $196,456 $151,919 +29.3%
September 2013 $185,117 $152,699 +21.2%
October 2013 $186,132 $151,838 +22.6%
November 2013 $181,064 $154,579 +17.1%
December 2013 $193,808 $164,602 +17.7%
January 2014 $184,507 $150,895 +22.3%
February 2014 $187,841 $158,620 +18.4%
March 2014 $195,855 $173,621 +12.8%
April 2014 $199,475 $179,614 +11.1%
12-Month Avg* $192,723 $159,175 +21.1%
Historical Average Sales Price by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Average Sales Price
* Average Sales Price of all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
$147,344
$179,614 $199,475
2012 2013 2014
April
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
$135,909
$167,123
$192,882
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
+ 15.4% + 21.9% + 11.1% + 23.0% + 1.0% - 5.7%
Percent of Original List Price Received
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 95.5% 92.5% +3.2%
June 2013 95.5% 92.9% +2.8%
July 2013 95.5% 93.1% +2.6%
August 2013 95.4% 93.2% +2.4%
September 2013 94.9% 93.3% +1.7%
October 2013 94.4% 93.7% +0.7%
November 2013 94.2% 93.8% +0.4%
December 2013 93.9% 93.7% +0.2%
January 2014 93.7% 93.3% +0.4%
February 2014 93.7% 94.2% -0.5%
March 2014 93.9% 94.6% -0.7%
April 2014 94.5% 95.1% -0.6%
12-Month Avg* 94.7% 93.6% +1.2%
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties soldin a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
Pct. of Orig. Price Received
* Average Pct. of Orig. Price Received for all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
91.5% 95.1% 94.5%
2012 2013 2014
April
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
90.1% 94.4% 94.0%
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
- 0.4% + 3.9% - 0.6% + 4.8% + 3.3% + 2.5%
Housing Affordability Index
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 260 366 -29.0%
June 2013 235 352 -33.2%
July 2013 229 350 -34.6%
August 2013 236 359 -34.3%
September 2013 253 366 -30.9%
October 2013 249 372 -33.1%
November 2013 272 355 -23.4%
December 2013 248 345 -28.1%
January 2014 251 354 -29.1%
February 2014 249 328 -24.1%
March 2014 236 295 -20.0%
April 2014 228 289 -21.1%
12-Month Avg 246 246 0.0%
Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
Affordability Index
375
289
228
2012 2013 2014
April
100
200
300
400
500
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
415
315
240
2012 2013 2014
Year to Date
- 23.8% - 22.9% - 21.1% - 24.1% + 10.0% + 21.7%
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 41,811 50,489 -17.2%
June 2013 42,747 49,257 -13.2%
July 2013 43,301 47,945 -9.7%
August 2013 43,280 46,293 -6.5%
September 2013 43,611 45,168 -3.4%
October 2013 43,638 44,433 -1.8%
November 2013 42,978 42,135 +2.0%
December 2013 40,836 39,563 +3.2%
January 2014 40,008 38,653 +3.5%
February 2014 40,396 39,113 +3.3%
March 2014 41,288 40,409 +2.2%
April 2014 41,303 40,924 +0.9%
12-Month Avg 42,100 43,699 -3.7%
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Homes for Sale
* Homes for Sale for all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
51,120
40,924 41,303
2012 2013 2014
April
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
- 19.9% + 0.9% - 23.4%
Months Supply of Inventory
Prior Year Percent Change
May 2013 5.9 7.1 -16.9%
June 2013 6.0 6.9 -13.0%
July 2013 6.1 6.7 -9.0%
August 2013 6.1 6.5 -6.2%
September 2013 6.1 6.4 -4.7%
October 2013 6.1 6.2 -1.6%
November 2013 6.0 5.9 +1.7%
December 2013 5.7 5.5 +3.6%
January 2014 5.6 5.4 +3.7%
February 2014 5.6 5.5 +1.8%
March 2014 5.7 5.7 0.0%
April 2014 5.6 5.7 -1.8%
12-Month Avg 5.9 6.1 -3.3%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month
Current as of May 16, 2014. Data comes from the Georgia MLS, Columbus Board of REALTORS®, Savannah MLS and Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Months Supply
* Months Supply for all properties from May 2013 through April 2014. This is not the average of the individual figures above.
7.2
5.7 5.6
2012 2013 2014
April
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014
- 20.8% - 1.8% - 36.8%