the german energy transition and the future ofrenewables · 2019. 7. 22. · bcg/prognos– ref...

The German Energy Transition and theFuture of Renewables

Prof. Andreas Löschel

Universität MünsterHead of German Expert Commission „Energy of the Future“

Co‐Director „Energy Transition Hub“

Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 2Source: World Bank Global Solar Atlas via SOLARGIS https://solargis.com/

Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel

Monitoring the Energy Transitionhttp://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/monitoring‐implementation‐of‐the‐energy‐reforms.html

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Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 4

Dimension Lead indicator

Mitigating climate change Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

Renewable energyIncrease in the share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption

Energy efficiencyReduction of primary energy consumption

Target attainment: likely uncertain unlikely

Status of the German energy transition

Security of supply Expansion of transmission grids

AffordabilityEnd‐user spending on electricity in terms of GDP

Public acceptanceGeneral approval of goals of energytransition

Source: Löschel et al (2019)

Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel5

Renewable support effective

• renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG): long term fixed technology specific feed‐in tariffs with privileged access to market and obligation for network connection: 20,5 GW (‘04) to 117 GW (‘18) with 46 GW PV, 53 GW Wind onshore, 6 GW Wind Offshore, 5 GW Hydro, 8 GW Biomass

• EEG 2014: reduction in FIT + targets for capacity increase per yearwind onshore: 2,5 GW MW (net 3‐5 GW gross,) wind offshore: 6,5 GW by 2020 (15 GW 2030)photovoltaic: 2.500 MW (gross), biomass: < 100 MW (gross)

• EEG 2016: bidding system for renewable investments from 2017onwards (quantity based), not PV < 750kWp

• 2018: goal enshrined in the coalition agreement of about 65 % by 2030• better synchronization of renewable energies and grid capacities

‐ limit expansion of wind power in some areas• tenant Electricity Act involves tenants directly and sets PV impulses,

wind cooperations


Electricity generation in Germany

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Installed capacity

Electricitygeneration

Source: Fraunhofer ISE https://www.energy‐charts.de/


Electricity generation in 2030 (BaU)

13770 61 75

87

65 87 37

‐100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Status quo ENavi Aurora Dena

Lignite Hard coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables Imports

21 12 10 13 10

25 12 17 8 170

50

100

150

200

250

300

Status Quo ENavi Aurora Dena DIW

Lignite Hard Coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables

Source: BDEW (2018), Enavi (2018), Aurora (2018), DENA (2018), DIW (2018)

Installed capacities in BaU 2030 (GW)Electricity production in BaU 2030 (TWh)

25

11 8 917

9

21

73

71

0

05

101520253035404550

Lignite

Hard coal

Phase out pathways 2030 (GW) • substantial economic phase out ofcoal based electricity generation

• renewable incrase to 55 %, but targets missed (50+)

• additional reduction necessary toachieve 2030 target

• Germany to become net importer


Renewables in 2019

8Source: https://www.smard.de

In calender week 10 2019 around 70 % of electricity consumption covered by renewables


Integration of renewables into system

9Source: https://www.smard.de

Electricity generation and load: 16.1.2017 – 26.1.2017.


Development of support system

•Mandatory direct marketing

• Switch from fixed remuneration to floating market premium

EEG 2014

•Shift to auctioning • Technology‐specific remuneration (determined by competition)

EEG 2017•No exposition to market price risks

•No competition between different technologies

• Strong increase in administratively determined parameters

Market revenues (price)

(Administratively determined)Floating market premium

Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years

Market revenues (price)

Floating market premium (to reach auction price)

Remuneration, guaranteed over a period of 20 years


Renewable auctions and capture prices

11

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Apr 15 Okt 15 Mai 16 Nov 16 Jun 17 Dez 17 Jul 18 Feb 19 Aug 19

ct/kWhMarktwert PV

Zuschlagswerte PV

Marktwert Wind Onshore

Zuschlagswerte Wind Onshore (100% Standort)

Source: Löschel et al. (2019) based on BNetzA (2019); ÜNB (2019)

Capture price PV

Auction price PV (> 750 kWp)

Capture price Wind Onshore

Auction price Wind Onshore (>750 kW) max. 7.5

ct/kWh

max. 6.2 ct/kWh


GHG Emissions in 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

million t C

O2‐eq

uivalents

Agriculture

Households, trade,commerce andservicesTransport

Industry

Energy sector

80 %‐Path

95 % Path

Sectoral GHG emissions in 2050 (and comparison with 2015 as a base year)

Source: Löschel et al. 2019


Electricity generation in 2050

Net electricity generation in 2050 according to different scenarios


TWh BCG/Prognos –REF

BCG/Prognos –80 %

BCG/Prognos –95 % ewi – REV 95 % ewi – EV 95 %

Photovoltaics 90 100 114 192 192

Wind offshore 151 188 258 139 113

Wind onshore 194 208 215 373 372

Gas(Synthetic gas from PtG) 49 47 48 (syn gas) 84 (syn gas) 61 (syn gas)

Other 136 83 80 87 72

Total 620 626 715 875 811


Attribute BCG/Prognos– REF

BCG/Prognos– 80 %

BCG/Prognos– 95 %

ewi – REV95 % ewi – EV 95 %

heat pumps[million units]

4 14 16 13 6

Eelectric cars and light‐duty vehicles[million units]

14+1 26+2 33+2 33+2 33+2

truck overhead line [km] 0 4,000 8,000 N/A

Synthetic fuels[TWh]

0 0 268 170‐177 188‐207

Synthetic fuels and combustibles[TWh]

0 0 383 448 634

Synthetic fuel imports [TWh] 0 0 340 402 585

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Selected technologies for sector coupling in 2050

Electrification in 2050


• substantial gaps in 2020/2030: climate target and efficiency • climate policy options

‐ coal phase out as a relatively cheap option, but implementation costly ‐ CO2 pricing and energy tax reform (electricity tax, FIT, …)

• renewable policies to be developed further (tech, grid, market price risk) increase in renewable alone not sufficient to achieve CO2 targets

• sector coupling necessary in long run (electricity, heat, transport): electrification and Power to X (hydrogen, green gas, synthetic fuels)

• grid extension as a bottleneck (also in EU): grid charges, market splitting• comprehensive review of the coal exit measures and their implementation in

2023, 2026 and 2029

Energy Transition ‐ Status quo and challenges

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Thank you.

Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel Chair of Energy and Resource EconomicsUniversity of Münsterloeschel@uni‐muenster.de

We Chat: AndreasLoeschelTwitter: @andreasloeschel

Monitoring the Energy Transitionhttp://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/monitoring‐implementation‐of‐the‐energy‐reforms.htmlGoogle: energy monitoring germany bmwi

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Prof. Dr. Andreas Löschel 17Source: BdEW (2014)

Renewable support effective, but not efficient

• Feed in tariffs (new installations) average feed in tariff

BiomassWind onshore

HydroWind offshore Photovoltaik

Geothermal

2014: Biomass 15 ct, Wind offshore 19 ct, Wind onshore 9 ct, Photovoltaik 12 ct e.g. 1.2.2015 PV rooftop <10kWp 12,56, <500kWp 10,92, open space 8,70


1.454

670

367563

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Completion / k

m

Ursprungspfad201320152016 (Best‐Case)2016

By the end of 2015 563 km had been completed (107 km less than forecasted in 2013, and 891 km less than originally intended)

The situation is similar with respect to projects of the Federal Requirement Plan

Original Path

18

Expand the gridNecessary grid extension (transmission and distribution) because of local and temporal intermittency as well as increasing average distance


Climate Action Plan 2050 and 2030 targets

19

61-62 %

49-51 %

66-67 %

40-42 %

31-34 %

Total (MtCO2eq.) 1248 902 543‐562 (55% in 2030 80‐95% in 2050)

Source: BMU (2016)


Perspective 2050

‐1.200

‐1.000

‐800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

Frau

nhofer ISI e

t al. ‐ R

EF

BCG/Progn

os ‐ RE

F

dena

et a

l. ‐ R

EF

BCG/Progn

os ‐ 80

%

dena

et a

l. ‐ E

L 80

%

dena

et a

l. ‐ T

M 80 %

Frau

nhofer ISI et a

l. ‐ B

S 80

%

BCG/Progn

os ‐ 95

%

dena

et a

l. ‐ E

L 95

%

dena

et a

l. ‐ T

M 95%

ewi ‐ REV

95 %

ewi ‐ EV 95

%

million t C

O2‐eq

uivalents

Switch between fossil energysources (including CCS)

Switch to synthetical energysources

Switch to renewable energysources

Switch (no assignmentpossible)

Energy productivity

Population growth

Economic growth

Total

Decomposition of the drivers of energy emissions in the overall system 2015-2050


the german energy transition and the future ofrenewables · 2019. 7. 22. · bcg/prognos– ref...

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