The global energy marketplace

Pavel RadzivilovskyThe 2nd OfftopicariumWarsaw, Poland 2012

The energy marketelectricity is a quiet and convenient transfer medium

Producers/sellers• Jet• Diesel• Gas• Coal• Hydro & geothermal• Nuclear• Wind• Solar (PV)• “Funny producers”

Consumers/buyers• Transport• Lighting• Water pumping• Data centers

ax+b: cost of weapon vs. cost of ammo

• Jet ≈ $0.30/W, Coal ≈ $2/W, Solar ≈ $16/W• All of above is actually solar, except nuclear• Regeneration rate is not good enough

Power production fatalities• Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)• Coal – global average 170,000 (50% global electricity)• Coal – China 280,000 (75% China’s electricity)• Coal – U.S. 15,000 (44% U.S. electricity)• Oil 36,000 (36% of energy, 8% of electricity)• Natural Gas 4,000 (20% global electricity)• Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)• Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)• Wind 150 (~ 1% global electricity)• Hydro – global average 1,400 (15% global electricity)• Nuclear – global average 90 (17% global electricity

w/Chern&Fukush)

Time dependence

• Afternoon summer peak • Evening winter peak• Night sharp minimum

The peak consumption problem

• Grid size matters• Stretching across time zones• Stretching across latitudes• The storage myth• Scheduled consumers• PV and the German grid• Mobile producers• Power islands

Large grids and the RF challenge

• The ancient dispute strikes back• HVDC• Japanese grid and the Fukishima disaster• The gridtie inverter

Going Mobile

• Gasoline is 40MJ per liter.• Charging power corrupts..and, it is liquid in STP conditions!!

Consuming less

• How much energy we need for transport?• Electric motor and regenerative breaking• Trains and brushes• Fuel cells and the hydrogen economy

better place

• Agassi: swap, don’t charge!

Air

• Flying is a difficult thing: many constraints from hell

• No imaginable alternative to liquid fuel• Corn ethanol• Potentially interesting impact on the food

market• Other synthesis ideas

Conclusion

• The stone age did not end because they ran out of stones

• We already have enough technology to do much better

• Tokamak, ITER and NIF• It may be useful to

rebuild what we burned

Questions?

Bonus slide