the global technology revolution 2020 - … the global technology revolution...

2020

The

Global Technology Revolution

Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

GT2020, 7/05 1

September 2003Based on Studies for the

National Intelligence Council

Anny Wong, RAND CorporationAnny Wong, RAND Corporation

14 October 200814 October 2008

This briefing is based on the final report from a RAND study: MG-475-NIC, 2006, and TR-303-NIC, 2006. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsTechnology consultants:

Natalie Gassman (nano-drug delivery)Brian Jackson (biotech)Eric Landree (nanotech)Elaine Newton (general tech)Shari Lawrence Pfleeger (infotech)Calvin Shipbaugh (quantum)Felicia Wu (biotech)

Regional consultants:Ramesh Bapat (India)Keith Crane (Europe)

• Co-PIs:

– Richard Silberglitt

– Philip S. Antón

• Core project team

– David R. Howell

– Anny Wong

GT2020, 7/05 2

Keith Crane (Europe)Heather Gregg (Middle East)Nina Hachigian (Asia)Rollie Lal (South Asia)Kevin O’Brien (Africa)Bill Overholt (China)DJ Peterson (Russia)Angel Rabasa (Latin America)Somi Seong (Korea)

Research support:National Intelligence Council

Intelligence Technology Innovation CenterU.S. Department of Energy

Foresight of Technology and Its Implications Through 2020

• Objective:

– Analysis of likely global technology trends and applications

• Social, political, economic, environmental, personal, regional, international impacts

• Approach:

– Tech trend extrapolation and applications

GT2020, 7/05 3

– Tech trend extrapolation and applications

• Trends were gleaned and balanced from existing outlooks, testimonies, and foresights, providing collective opinions and points-of-view from a broad spectrum of individuals

• Developed a vision of a range of future possibilities rather than a single prediction or scenario

– Regional needs

– Capacity to acquire and implement technology applications

High-Growth Developments: Widespread Food

Manipulation (à la BIO)• GM for food and drug production, improved

nutrition, natural pest resistances, edible vaccines, and environmental resilience

Key Drivers:

• Investments• Scientific

progress

Effects:• Improved nutrition• Improved crop yields & drought tolerance• More land considered arable• Reduced pesticides and deforestation for farming• Possible ecosystem changes• Possible “good gene” hoarding

Range of Possible Technology

Futures and Effects:

Genetically Modified Foods

GT2020, 7/05 42005 2010 2015 2020

Present-daystatus and vectors

Key Barriers:

• Social & ethical rejection

• Unintended environmental effects

Low-Growth Developments: Slow or No-Go

• Limited food, plant, and animal modification• Slow introduction and longer testing• Continued use of traditional GM procedures (cross

pollination, selective breeding, and irradiation of seeds)• Reliance on traditional pest controls and GM procedures

Effects:• Continued slow gains in food production efficiency• Increasing caloric and nutritional shortages in the

developing world

Technology Applications are Implemented to Promote Certain Ends

• Promote rural economic development

• Promote economic growth and international commerce

• Improve public health

• Improve individual health

GT2020, 7/05 5

• Improve individual health

• Reduce resource use and improve environmental health

• Strengthen the military and warfighters of the future

• Strengthen homeland security and public safety

• Influence governance and social structure

Major Finding: Not All Nations Will Have Capacity to Acquire and Use All Future Technology Applications

• Capacity to acquire is based on S&T capacity in each country

– Acquisition may be through research & development, technology

transfer, licensing, off-the-shelf purchases, copying/piracy.

• Implementation is not automatic

GT2020, 7/05 6

– Implementation is affected by a confluence of economic,

social, political and other mitigating factors.

• Capacity to use technology applications is based on

– Capacity to acquire + having sufficient drivers to overcome barriers

to implementation.

All Technology Applications Have Technical and Implementation Feasibility Issues

Niche market

(– –)

Medium or large market;

Public policy

issues(–)

Medium market; No public policy

issues(+)

Large market; No public policy

issues

(++)

Highly Feasible

Implementation Feasibility

GT2020, 7/05 7

Feasible(++)

Feasible(+)

Uncertain(U)

Unlikely(–)

Highly Unlikely

(– –)

Te

ch

nic

al

Fe

as

ibil

ity

High Technical Feasibility,Large Market and No Public Policy Issues

Niche market

(– –)


Public policy

issues(–)


issues(+)


issues

(++)

Highly Feasible


GT2020, 7/05 8

Feasible(++)

Feasible(+)

Uncertain(U)

Unlikely(–)

Highly Unlikely

(– –)

Te

ch

nic

al

Fe

as

ibil

ity

– Hybrid vehicles (#11)– Rapid bioassays (#5)– Rural wireless communications (#2) – (Internet)

Niche market

(– –)


Public policy issues

(–)


issues

(+)


issues

(++)

Highly

Feasible


– Genetic Screening – GM Crops (#4)– Pervasive Sensors (#12)

– Implants for Tracking and ID

Technically Feasible Group but Moderated Market or Public Policy Issues

GT2020, 7/05 9

Feasible(++)

Feasible(+)

Uncertain(U)

Unlikely(–)

Highly Unlikely

(– –)

Te

ch

nic

al

Fea

sib

ilit

y

– Implants for Tracking and ID – Xenotransplantation– CBRN Sensors on ERT

– GM Animals for R&D– Unconventional Transport

Niche market

(– –)


Public policy

issues(–)


issues(+)


issues

(++)

Highly Feasible


Unlikely 2020 Technically Feasible butLarge to Moderate Market Group

GT2020, 7/05 10

Feasible(++)

Feasible(+)

Uncertain(U)

Unlikely(–)

Highly Unlikely

(– –)

Te

ch

nic

al

Fe

as

ibil

ity – Cheap Autonomous Housing (#8)

– Print-to-Order-Books

– Drugs Tailored to Genetics – Hydrogen Vehicles

– Artificial Muscles and Tissue

Unlikely Technically Feasible with Moderated Market and/or Public Policy Issues

Niche market

(– –)


Public policy

issues(–)


issues(+)


issues

(++)

Highly Feasible


– Chip implants for brain

– Memory-enhancing drugs

GT2020, 7/05 11

Feasible(++)

Feasible(+)

Uncertain(U)

Unlikely(–)

Highly Unlikely

(– –)

Te

ch

nic

al

Fe

as

ibil

ity

– Memory-enhancing drugs

– Robotic scientist

– Super soldiers

– Genetic selection of offspring

– Proxy-bot

– Quantum computers

We Also Assessed Technology Applications for Their Societal Sector Impacts

Wa

ter

Fo

od

La

nd

Po

pu

latio

n

Go

ve

rna

nc

e

So

cia

l Stru

ctu

re

En

erg

y

He

alth

Ec

on

om

ic

De

ve

lop

me

nt

Ed

uc

atio

n

De

fen

se

/Co

nflic

t

En

viro

nm

en

t/ P

ollu

tion

GT2020, 7/05 12

Cheap Solar Energy x x x x x x x x x x

Rural Wireless Communications

x x x x x x x

Genetically Modified Crops

x x x x x x x x

Rapid Bioassays x x x x

Our Assessment Ranked 16 as the Top Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020 (out of 56)

1. Cheap solar energy

2. Rural wireless

Communications

3. Ubiquitous info access

4. Genetically modified crops

9. Green manufacturing

10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency

Identification (RFID) tagging

11. Hybrid vehicles

12. Pervasive sensors

GT2020, 7/05 13


5. Rapid bioassays

6. Filters and catalysts

7. Targeted drug delivery

8. Cheap, autonomous

housing


13. Tissue engineering

14. Improved diagnostic and

surgical methods

15. Wearable computers

16. Quantum cryptography

Countries Were Rated Based on Their Capability to Acquire Representative Applications

AdvancedProficient

DevelopingLagging

Needed Capability Technology ApplicationsCheap solar energyRural wireless communicationsGenetically modified (GM) cropsFilters and catalysts

Low

*** Not every country can acquire all these future technology applications

GT2020, 7/05 14

Filters and catalystsCheap autonomous housingRapid bioassaysGreen manufacturingUbiquitous RFID taggingMediumHybrid vehiclesTargeted drug deliveryImproved diagnostic and surgical methodsHighQuantum cryptographyUbiquitous information accessTissue engineeringPervasive sensors

Very High

Wearable computers

29 Sample Countries, Ranking by S&T Capacity & No. of Technology Applications They Can Acquire

• Scientifically advanced countries

– Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, Japan, South Korea,

United States (all top 16 for each)

• Scientifically proficient countries

– China, India, Poland, Russia (12 of 16 for each)

GT2020, 7/05 15

• Scientifically developing countries

– Brazil (9), Chile (9), Colombia (8), Indonesia (9), Mexico (9),

South Africa (9), Turkey (9)

• Scientifically lagging countries

– Cameroon, Chad, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Fiji, Iran,

Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, Pakistan (5 of top 16 for each)

Many Sources Used to Assess National Capacity (and Needs) in Addition to Expert Input

• United Nations Human Development Index

– Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (purchasing power parity)

– Population profile: size, growth rate, gender balance, age (2002, 2015)

– % of GDP for education, research & development, military

– Gender ratio in primary, secondary, tertiary education

– Percentage of population with access to improved water supply and sanitation

– No. of physicians and hospital beds per 100,000 persons

GT2020, 7/05 16

– No. of physicians and hospital beds per 100,000 persons

– Electricity consumption, per capita in kilowatt hours

– % of population with fixed phone lines, internet access

• Freedom House Political Rights and Civil Liberties

• Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index

• RAND’s Country Index of Science and Technology Capacity

• World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index

– Innovation, Economic Incentive Regime, Education, Information Infrastructure

Drivers for, and Barriers to, Technology Implementation Were Assessed for Each Country

1. Cost and financing

2. Laws and policies

3. Social values, public opinions, politics

4. Infrastructure

5. Privacy concerns

These drivers/barriers

together represent the

Institutional, Physical,

and Human capacities

available in a society to

GT2020, 7/05 17

5. Privacy concerns

6. Resource use and environmental health

7. Investment in R&D

8. Education and literacy

9. Population and demographics

10. Governance and stability

available in a society to

use technology.

Barriers:a. Cost/Financing

b. Laws/Policies

c. Social Values, Politics

d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns

f. Resource Use, Env. Health

g. Investment in R&D

Drivers:a. Cost/Financing

b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns



Scientifically Advanced Country: United StatesTop 16 Technology Applications


2. Rural wireless comm.



5. Rapid bioassays



8. Cheap, autonomous housing


GT2020, 7/05 18

h. Education & Literacy

i. Population & Demographics

j. Governance & Stability





Scientifically advanced countries have many drivers and few barriers to enable use of all future technology applications


10. Ubiquitous RFID

11. Hybrid vehicles



14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods



Scientifically Proficient Country: China


b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns


Top 16 Technology Applications





5. Rapid bioassays






b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns



GT2020, 7/05 19

Env. Health





Scientifically proficient countries have similar numbers of drivers and barriers


10. Ubiquitous RFID

11. Hybrid vehicles








i. Population and Demographics


Scientifically Developing Country: Brazil


b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns





b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns








5. Rapid bioassays





GT2020, 7/05 20


i. Population, Demographics

j. Governance and Stability

h. Education and Literacy

i. Population, Demographics

j. Governance and Stability


10. Ubiquitous RFID

11. Hybrid vehicles






Scientifically developing countries have some drivers but also many barriers

Scientifically Lagging Country: Pakistan


b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns




b. Laws/Policies


d. Infrastructure

e. Privacy Concerns








5. Rapid bioassays




9.

GT2020, 7/05 21




Scientifically lagging countries have a large number of barriers and few drivers





10. Ubiquitous RFID

11. Hybrid vehicles






Gap Between Scientifically Lagging and Scientifically Advanced Countries Is Enormous

Based on 16 Technology Applications Representative of General S&T Capacity

GT2020, 7/05 22

Implications of Our Research for National Governments in Promoting S&T for Development

• Success in innovation requires S&T capacity building to integrate

with other areas of investment and growth (e.g., financial sector

reform, gender development, health, education)

• This research provides an approach to consider planning and

GT2020, 7/05 23

• This research provides an approach to consider planning and

resourcing for S&T capacity building to achieve near- and long-

term goals in development

• Having metrics for drivers and barriers and the outputs and

outcomes of S&T capacity building sharpens focus on goals of

development and helps to track progress across sectors

The Global TechnologyThe Global Technology RevolutionRevolution

20202020

GT2020, 7/05 24

Richard Silberglitt, Philip S. Antón, David R. Howell, Anny WongRichard Silberglitt, Philip S. Antón, David R. Howell, Anny Wong

Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020

1. Cheap Solar Energy

2. Rural Wireless Communications

3. Ubiquitous Information Access

4. Genetically Modified Crops

5. Rapid Bioassays

6.

GT2020, 7/05 25

6. Filters and Catalysts

7. Targeted Drug Delivery

8. Cheap Autonomous Housing

9. Green Manufacturing

10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency Identification Tagging

Continue

11. Hybrid Vehicles

12. Pervasive Sensors

13. Tissue Engineering

14. Improved Diagnostic and Surgical Methods

15. Wearable Computers

16. Quantum Cryptography

GT2020, 7/05 26

16. Quantum Cryptography

17. Hands-free Computer Interface

18. In Silico Drug R&D

19. Smart Textiles

20. Resistant Textiles

Continue

21. Electronic Transactions

22. Genetic Screening

23. Genetically Modified Insects

24. Unconventional Transport

25. Commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

26. Drug Development from Screening

GT2020, 7/05 27

26. Drug Development from Screening

27. Monitoring and Control for Disease Management

28. Enhanced Medical Recovery

29. Secure Data Transfer

30. Print-to-Order Books

Continue

31. Therapies based on Stem Cell R&D

32. Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Sensor Network in Cities

33. CBRN Sensors on Emergency Response Teams

34. Immunotherapy

35. Improved Treatments from Data Analysis

GT2020, 7/05 28

35. Improved Treatments from Data Analysis

36. Smart Systems

37. Hydrogen Vehicles

38. Implants for Tracking and Identification

39. Gene Therapy

40. Chip Implants for the Brain

Continue

41. Drugs Tailored to Genetics

42. Secure Video Monitoring

43. Biometrics as Sole Identification

44. Hospital Robotics

45. Military Nanotechnologies

46. Military Robotics

GT2020, 7/05 29

46. Military Robotics

47. Xenotransplantation

48. Artificial Muscles and Tissue

49. Genetically Modified Animals for R&D

50. High-Tech Terrorism

Continue

51. Memory Enhancing Drugs

52. Super Soldiers

53. Genetic Selection of Offspring

54. Proxy-bot

55. Quantum Computers

GT2020, 7/05 30

55. Quantum Computers

56. Robotic Scientist

the global technology revolution 2020 - … the global technology revolution...

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