Illinois Department of Employment Security | Economic Information and Analysis Division | March 2018

Across the U.S. there has been a rise in the number of good jobs, which are defined by

Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce as jobs that require less than a bachelor’s degree and have an annual median income of $58,000 (the median income for the State of Illinois in 2016)1. Good jobs are increasing in both the U.S. and Illinois, based on industry and occupational projections.

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) produces and makes available employment projections, as well as wage, education requirements, and training information for over 900 occupations and 120 industries. The state’s employment projections provide a reliable source of reference for anticipating job market growth or decline in the short-term (2-year) and long-term (10-year) future, that can be useful for identifying good jobs, exploring career

The Growth Of Good JobsFind out which industries and occupations that require less

than a bachelor’s degree are on the rise and decline by Amber Simone Forté

2 | Illinois Labor Market Review

options, and analyzing labor demands. In this article, we present significant projected occupational and industry growth and decline based on the most recently produced projections.

The following tables represent the projections for the fastest growing and fastest declining industries for the short-term (2016-2018 or 2-year) and the long-term (2014-2024 or 10-year) periods.

• Facilities Support Services2 is the fastest growing industry for the 2-year period with an annual growth rate of 4.59%; and

• Individual and Family Services3 is the slowest growing industry for the 2-year period with an annual growth rate of 3.17%.

Although Individuals and Family Services is the slowest growing industry out of the top ten fastest growing industries, it is important to note that it is still growing faster than the average statewide growth rate for the 2-year projection period (0.93%).

• Apparel Manufacturing is the fastest declining industry for the 2-year period with an annual growth rate of -0.37%; and

• Rail Transportation is the slowest declining industry for the 2-year period with an annual growth rate of -0.04%.

Industry Annual Growth Rate Industry Annual Growth RateFacilities Support Services 4.59% Software Publishers 4.01%Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services 4.43% Couriers and Messengers 3.66%Specialty Trade Contractors 4.32% Office Administrative Services 3.65%Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles 4.14% Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3.47%Computer Systems Design and Related Services 4.06% Individual and Family Services 3.17%

Top ten fastest growing industries for the short-term (2016-2018)

Industry Annual Growth Rate Industry Annual Growth RateApparel Manufacturing -0.37% State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals -0.21%Broadcasting (except Internet) -0.36% Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools -0.14%Legal Services -0.35% Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing -0.11%Health and Personal Care Stores -0.28% Chemical Manufacturing -0.09%Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations -0.22% Rail Transportation -0.04%

Top ten fastest declining industries for the short-term (2016-2018)

Table 1: Top Ten Fastest Growing Industries for the Short-Term (2016-2018)

Table 2: Top Ten Fastest Declining Industries for the Short-Term (2016-2018)

3 | Illinois Labor Market Review

• Educational Support Services4 is the fastest growing industry for the 10-year period with an annual growth rate of 4.08%; and

• Child Day Care5 is the slowest growing industry for the 10-year period with an annual growth rate of 1.84%.

• Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing6 is the fastest declining industry for the 10-year period with an annual growth rate of -3.61%; and

• Management of Companies and Enterprises7 is the slowest declining industry for the 10-year period with an annual growth rate of -0.89%.

Industry Annual Growth Rate Industry Annual Growth RateEducational Support Services 4.08% Other Ambulatory Health Care Services 2.84%Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services 3.34% Computer Systems Design and Related Services 2.63%Other Information Services 3.23% Warehousing and Storage 2.25%Home Health Care Services 3.20% Offices of Other Health Practitioners 1.85%Office Administrative Services 2.94% Child Day Care Services 1.84%

Top ten fastest growing industries for the long-term (2014-2024)Table 3: Top ten fastest growing industries for the long-term (2014-2024)

Industry Annual Growth Rate Industry Annual Growth RateLeather and Allied Product Manufacturing -3.61% Printing and Related Support Activities -1.92%Postal Service -3.38% Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory Publishers -1.85%Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing -2.94% Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores -1.06%Apparel Manufacturing -2.76% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing -0.90%Paper Manufacturing -1.93% Management of Companies and Enterprises -0.89%

Top ten fastest declining industries for the long-term (2014-2024)Table 4: Top ten fastest declining industries for the long-term (2014-2024)

4 | Illinois Labor Market Review

The fastest growing occupations for the 2-year period are listed in Table 5. The industries in which the top ten fastest growing occupations are heavily concentrated are the Specialty Trade Contractors industry and the Computer Systems and Related Services industry. The Specialty Trade Contractors industry, which has an annual growth rate of 4.32%, has experienced a significant resurgence of blue-collar jobs since the 2008 recession8. Also listed in Table 5 is the annual median income and the occupational growth rates. The occupations that are heavily concentrated in the Special Trade Contractors industry (all listed occupations except Web Developers) require a high school diploma. Web Developers require an associate’s degree. Large occupational percent growth rates indicate there may be new opportunities for employment in the short-term future.

The information provided by the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) can be used to glean what past labor trends can mean for the future of the labor market. In this article, we used IDES projections data to show which occupations and industries are on the rise and decline based on educational attainment and income. We found that there is a steady influx of occupations that require less than a bachelor’s degree and have a median annual income of $58,0009, most of which belong to the blue-collar job classification. Being that the 10-year projections are produced every two years and the 2-year projections are produced annually, the list of growing and declining non-bachelor’s degree occupations and industries will be updated to account for the most current information.

Sources: http://www.ides.illinois.gov/LMI/Pages/Employment_Projections.aspx

Footnotes:1. Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Good Jobs That Pay without a BA: A State-by-State Analysis, 2017.2. https://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.display?id=231&tab=description3. https://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.display?id=283&tab=description4. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag61.htm5. https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/naics4_624400.htm6. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag316.htm7. https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag55.htm8. https://www.smacna.org/news/latest-news/archives/2017/03/07/specialty-construction-employment-is-growing

Occupation or ‘Good Job’ Annual Median Income Occupational Growth RateInsulation Workers, Mechanical $79,705 4.87%Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers $87,202 4.55%Elevator Installers and Repairers $85,613 4.15%Brickmasons and Blockmasons $81,618 3.65%Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters $80,132 3.40%Electricians $77,858 3.47%Glaziers $81,863 3.20%Web Developers $70,497 3.22%Stonemasons $63,217 3.10%Boilermakers $61,493 2.38%

Top ten fastest growing occupations for the short-term (2016-2018)

Table 5: Top Ten Fastest Growing Occupations for the Short-Term (2016-2018)