the impact of climate change on the supply of aquafeed ingredients
TRANSCRIPT
May | June 2011
Feature title: The impact of climate change on the supply of aquafeed ingredients
The International magazine for the aquaculture feed industry
International Aquafeed is published five times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. ©Copyright 2009 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1464-0058
The uncertainly concerning the availability of tradi-tional fishmeal and fish oil and rising prices have
required major industrial aquafeed manufactures to identify and evaluate alternate protein and oil sources. Considerable progress has been made in recent years on substitution of fish protein and oil with proteins and oils of plant origin.
Grain crop yields, as with other arable crops, when negatively affected by variable and adverse weather conditions, increase uncertainty about grain supplies and prices.
Therefore, the reliability of grain sup-plies for aquafeeds in the future will be influenced by short–term weather patterns and long–term predicted global warming directly through its impact on crop yields, crop pests and diseases and soil fertility and condition.
Supply will be also influenced by climate change indirectly through its impacts on economic growth, income distribution and agricultural demand (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007).
During the past few years, unpredictable weather resulted in a critical shortfall of major grain and oilseed ingredients used for on–farm aquafeeds as well as for complete commercial diets.
Unfavourable weather reduced crop yield and production in some countries in 2006. The crop yields in the Russian Federation and Ukraine were markedly lower due to drought. Australia encoun-tered two years (2006 and 2007) of severe
drought and South Africa also experienced drought.
Consequently, the reduced world production and supply of grains and oilseeds contributed to a further decline in the global stock–to–use ratio for aggregate grains and oilseeds, and also to rising prices. In September 2006, maize prices began a significant rise to a new high.
Adverse weather patterns continued into 2007 negatively affecting yields and global grain supplies on most continents
and in a great number of key countries supplying global markets with aquafeed ingredients such as rapeseed, soybean and grains.
Northern Europe encountered a dry spring and floods during harvesting time, while southeast Europe suffered a drought.
The droughts of 2006 in Ukraine and the Russian Federation continued into 2007.
Turkey also experienced drought in 2007, which reduced yields in rain-fed production areas.
In the Americas, a late heavy freeze over several consecutive days destroyed large tracts of hard red winter wheat and in the United States of America reduced yields over large areas, while in Canada, a hot and dry summer growing season resulted in lower yields for wheat, barley and rapeseed.
In South America, a late freeze followed by a drought in Argentina reduced corn and barley yields (see Box 2). Droughts in northwest Africa and Australia in 2007 also affected major growing areas. The accumulative result of bad weather in 2007 resulted in the second consecutive drop in global average yields for grains and oilseeds, causing a further decline in the global stocks–to–use ratio and creating uncertainty among importers about the future availability of supplies. This placed an upward pressure on prices of plant proteins and oils used as aquafeed ingredients.
La Niña weatherIn 2009, a La Niña weather event
affected crop production in the Southern Hemisphere, bringing rains to the main arable areas of Australia, serious drought to Argentine wheat production areas, reducing production by 48 percent, and sufficient rain for cereal crops in South Africa. This weather event, which was characterised by low surface-water tem-peratures in the Equatorial Pacific, was
The third article in a series, taken from a new aquaculture book
by Krishen J Rana, Sunil Siriwardena and Mohammad R Hasan
Impact of rising feed ingredient prices on aquafeeds and aquaculture production:
The impact of climate change on the supply
of aquafeed ingredients
Climate change, which is being driven by global warming caused mainly by carbon emissions from industrialised countries, will continue to influence temperature and precipitation patterns around the world.
44 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | May-June 2011
Feed Management
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full list of sessions open for abstract submission. Abstract submission will continue to be available after the deadline of mid-April 2011, although the session moderators will already have started to select the best oral and poster presentations at that time, so you are strongly advised to submit on time.
Other eventsAE2011, as all Aquaculture Europe
events, is a platform for exchange of ideas and communications on the development of aquaculture.
The AE2011 International Trade Event will showcase new products and services offered to the aquacul-ture sector.
The EAS Student Group will also be organising another of its very suc-cessful student forums and a field trip around the conference.
The Research Directorate General of the European Commission will also host another of the EU FORUMS, where latest European research initiatives will be presented
and where delegates can discuss with Commission representatives about future research plans.
Finally, other European networks, projects and initiatives will present their activities at AE2011.
The conference centreAE2011 will take place at the
Rodos Palace Luxury Convention Resort, located just 12km from Rhodes Diagora international airport. Rhodes can be reached directly from many European and international airports, or through Athens, and is only a short boat trip from the main aquacul-ture production sites in Turkey. The island is well known for the warmth of its welcome, its magnificent natural beauty and climate, its monuments and historical sites as well as for its gastronomy.
With its 785 rooms, the Rodos Palace resort provides excellent, exceptionally stylish accommodation with top-class conference and exhi-bition facilities that will make a very
positive contribution to the success of AE2011. Our local agent, Frei Travel has also lined up other accom-modation for all budgets, as well as tours to local sights and to fish farms on the island.
AE2011 SponsorsEAS Premium Sponsor, Intervet
Schering Plough Animal Health, AE2011 Gold Sponsor, Biomar and AE2011 Silver Sponsor Alltech head a number of corporate sponsors
from the Mediterranean aquacul-ture sector supporting Aquaculture Europe 2011 and providing much needed input for its success. EAS, FGM and HCMR are extremely grateful to them.
More inforMation:AE2011Mario Stael Email:[email protected]:www.easonline.org
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Aqua News
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44 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | May-June 2011
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IAF11.03.indd 45 04/05/2011 09:09
and for transport), and the flue gases from conventional energy generation facilities can therefore be used as a source of CO2 for large-scale microalgae cultivation installations.
The production of liquid biofuels for vehicles (biodiesel and bioethanol), is a very promising alternative
A series of factors must be taken into account when selecting microalgae as a source of biofuel precursors, such as: high productivity, temperature tolerance, toler-ance to pH, high performance in fermenta-ble carbohydrates for ethanol production or in fatty acids transformable to biodiesel, for example.
We also need to establish the most suitable type of cultivation system to be used (open, closed or mixed), and the most favourable operating conditions (batch, semi-continuous, continuous, number of phases, etc.).
Tables 2 and 3 below show some exam-ples of cyanobacteria as potential sources of fermentable carbohydrates for ethanol production and the lipid content of some microalgae for biodiesel production.
The expectations raised by microalgae as a source of second-generation bio-fuels have led to the creation of a large number of companies, some of which have made significant investment. Our company AlgaEnergy is convinced that in the near future microalgae will be able to provide us with these forms of clean energy so necessary for the sustainable economic development of our societies. Not only is constant research and development the basis for a continuous innovation process
required to achieve this ambitious goal, but also the combination of this process with a realistic Strategic and Business Plan.
R&D and a realistic Business Plan
AlgaEnergy is developing a responsible scientific agenda aimed at achieving the commer-cially viable production of biofuels derived from microalgae. The R&D programmes provided for that purpose include the selection and genetic engineering work on various types of microalgae, which carry substantial quantities of lipids or carbohydrates (some of which are patented), the development of
new photobioreactors more efficient and with lower costs, and the establishment of a suitable and scalable production process.
At present, biofuels produced from microalgae are not financially competitive with the first-generation bio-fuels obtained from conven-tional agricultur-al crops, and bio-mass production and processing must therefore be substantially improved so that the price of the product can be reduced by an order of magni-tude at least.
A l gaEnerg y is currently engaged in the construction of its first plant, a Techno log i ca l Platform for Experimentation with Microalgae ( P T E M ) , located at the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Airport of Madrid-Barajas. This is intended to be a model platform of its
kind, which will incorporate four types of photobioreactors (PBR): columns, tubular reactors, semi-open and in a second stage, raceways. The plant will be entirely auto-mated and controlled by specially designed software, which manages all the cultivation parameters. Its goal is to research and develop new PBR processes and technolo-gies in this field. For this reason, the plant will have the flexibility and capacity to grow simultaneously different species of micro-algae in different growing conditions, using indoor and outdoor PBR. The cultivation area will be initially of about 1,000 m2 and the culture volume up to 72,000 l.
AlgaEnergy’s plant will be visited during the 3rd Algae World Europe congress that
Table 2: Cyanobacteria as a potential source of fermentable carbohydrates (Vargas et al. 1998, J. Phycol. 34, 812)
StrainCarbohydrates
(% of dry weight)
Anabaena sp. ATCC 33047 28.0 ± 2.0
Anabaena variabilis 22.3 ± 2.5
Anabaenopsis sp. 16.3 ± 1.5
Nodularia sp. (Chucula) 16.9 ± 2.6
Nostoc commune 37.6 ± 2.5
Nostoc paludosum 26.6 ± 1.9
Nostoc sp. (Albufera) 26.8 ± 4.0
Nostoc sp. (Caquena) 23.3 ± 1.7
Nostoc sp. (Chile) 23.3 ± 2.0
Nostoc sp. (Chucula) 15.7 ± 1.8
Nostoc sp. (Llaita) 20.2 ± 1.5
Nostoc sp. (Loa) 32.1 ± 1.2
Figure 1: AlgaEnergy’s CO2BIOCAP mobile laboratory
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F: Microalgae
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At the regional level, assuming carbon fertilisation occurs at the predicted rate, agricultural output in industrialised nations will rise by a predicted 7.7 percent, whereas that of developing countries will decline by nine percent.
Similarly, in sub–Saharan Africa (SSA), Asia and Latin America, the output is pre-dicted to fall by 17, 7 and 13 percent respectively. Thus, SSA and Latin America are the two developing regions most vul-nerable to global warming.
Countries such as Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, the United States of America and Canada, the Russian Federation, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia are major producers and global suppliers of key protein and oils used in aquafeeds.
These predicted changes, which show intra–regional variation, show production gains for high latitude countries and pro-duction losses for lower latitude countries, mainly developing nations.
To mitigate against such probable losses, countries can limit their losses due to climate change by switching to agricultural imports rather than growing the products imported (Cline, 2007).
developed to predict the degree of impact of such climate change on agricultural output.
All models use varying assumptions (for a comprehensive review see Cline, 2007).
The key assumption is that carbon con-centrations in the atmosphere will increase as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from the current (2007) 365ppm to above a threshold of around 585ppm, reach-ing 735ppm by 2080. This would foster increased production through increased photosynthetic activity, a phenomenon referred to as carbon fertilisation and hence increased yields (Cline, 2007).
This positive effect, however, is reduced and reversed when the atmospheric tem-perature rises above 12–14 deg C. By combining information on carbon fertilisa-tion with information on changes in average annual temperatures and precipitations, Cline (2007) predicted the potential impact of these changes on national agricultural output.
expected to continue well into March and April 2009.
The predictably of rainfall can also affect supplies of grains. In Australia, in 2009, inter-mittent rain during the growing season and heavy rains during harvesting time reduced crop yields and available supplies of wheat.
It is now widely acknowledged that global weather patterns are unstable and that the frequencies of adverse climatic conditions are likely to increase. Climate change, which is being driven by global warming caused mainly by carbon emissions from industrialised countries, will continue to influence temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. This, in turn, will place severe upward pressure on water supplies in water-stressed regions of the world and may result in shifts in geo–physical growing areas for the major protein crops and oil-plant crops yields of which are used in aquafeed production.
The effects of changing weather patterns are complex and several models have been
More information:Krishen J. Rana & Sunil SiriwardenaInstitute of Aquaculture University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom
Mohammad R. HasanAquaculture Management and Conservation Service, Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division, FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Website: www.fao.org
Coming in the next issue of The International Aquafeed magazine (May/June issue) will be an excerpt of chapter two from Impact of rising feed ingredient prices on aquafeeds and aquaculture production.The full publication can be found at:http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1143e/i1143e00.htm
"It is now widely acknowledged that global weather patterns are unstable and that the frequencies of adverse climatic conditions are likely to increase"
In Australia, in 2009, intermittent rain during the growing season and heavy rains during harvesting time reduced crop yields and available supplies of wheat.
46 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | May-June 2011
Feed Management
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VOLUME 14 I S SUE 3 2 011
THE INTERNATIONAL MAGAZINE FOR THE AQUACULTURE FEED INDUSTRY
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